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2021-12-13

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A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022

For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be

A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":604618286,"tweetId":"604618286","gmtCreate":1639385691948,"gmtModify":1639385692034,"author":{"id":3583290509321840,"idStr":"3583290509321840","authorId":3583290509321840,"authorIdStr":"3583290509321840","name":"ehkay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf21fdc0ee5fa36576d29e4a9e31e1a8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[Smile]&nbsp;</span><br></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[Smile]&nbsp;</span><br></p></body></html>","text":"[Smile]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604618286","repostId":2190200176,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190200176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639374435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190200176?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 13:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190200176","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be ","content":"<p>For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> glaring exception.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504a973756c06669eb97fbdcb0887f31\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large auto-dealer chains, including AutoNation, for a rebound in new-car sales as supply shortages subside.</span></p>\n<p>This has been quite a year for many industries, and not only because of sales rebounds after so many businesses were temporarily shut down during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>Unprecedented stimulus payments by the federal government to consumers have helped feed pent-up demand, and with component supply disruptions, the most obvious distortion has been seen on auto-dealer lots.</p>\n<p>This is why David Dineen, the chief investment officer for global small-cap at Spouting Rock Asset Management, believes that three large auto-dealer chains are well-positioned for stock-price gains in 2022 and beyond.</p>\n<p>\"We are coming off trough sales for this economic cycle\" for new cars, he said during an interview.</p>\n<p>Spouting Rock Asset Management is based in Bryn Mawr, Penn., and has $3.1 billion in assets under management.</p>\n<p>The supply shortage has led to a decline in sales of new cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units in October from a SAAR of 18. 8 million in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/660899263cc0cb8c6b1065cb36f440ed\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</span></p>\n<p>Dineen described the October SAAR as \"a recessionary level,\" underscoring an opportunity for investors, because the auto dealers trade at lower valuations than auto manufacturers and parts suppliers.</p>\n<p><b>Bad 'comps' for many industries in 2022</b></p>\n<p>When covering financial results, Wall Street analysts and the financial media are fixated on year-over-year comparisons because of seasonality. But those \"comps\" can paint a confusing picture. For example, an industry whose sales dropped during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 might have shown stellar \"improvement\" a year later, even if its sales hadn't come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels.</p>\n<p>Artificially high year-over-year increases in sales, profits or cash flow this year may be followed by much slower growth rates as business in various industries gets closer to pre-pandemic norms.</p>\n<p>According to Dineen, \"you will have difficult comps for much of consumption in 2022.\"</p>\n<p>And that's why he thinks large dealers who sell new cars are a good place for investors who wish to make another pandemic rebound play.</p>\n<p><b>Low valuations for auto dealers</b></p>\n<p>The auto dealers as a group have suffered a \"re-rating\" by investors as the shortage of new cars has caused sales to tumble, while creating upward price pressure and shortages of used cars.</p>\n<p>To illustrate how this has affected stock valuations relative to earnings, we looked at the six auto dealers included in the S&amp;P 1500 Composite Index (made up of the S&amp;P 500 , the S&amp;P 400 Mid Cap Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MID\">$(MID)$</a> and the S&amp;P Small Cap Index ). Here's how forward price-to-earnings ratios for the six car dealers have moved since the end of 2019:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ec20c1ad0523f6b145b3790bf9339a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>FactSet</span></p>\n<p>The forward P/E ratios are based on rolling 12-month earnings estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.</p>\n<p>The exception to downward P/E movement for these dealers has been CarMax Inc..</p>\n<p>\"CarMax has had the most leverage to the used car market, which has been on fire,\" Dineen said. The five other dealers on the chart sell both new and used vehicles. Looking ahead over the next two years, as the supply chain presumably recovers and new-car production rebounds, he favors <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">AutoNation</a> Inc. (AN), Asbury Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABG\">$(ABG)$</a>, and Sonic Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(SAH)$</a> for an increase in P/E ratios and share prices.</p>\n<p>For CarMax, comparisons may get \"slippery\" over the next two years, if a return to 2019 or 2020 sales levels for new cars causes the used-car market to cool, Dineen said.</p>\n<p>Here's an easier way to compare current forward P/E ratios for the six dealers in the Composite 1500 to their pre-pandemic levels. The list is sorted by market capitalization:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22b35add96d4e81a058b94ed441a07b\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p></p>\n<p>In contrast to the three dealers he favors (AutoNation, Asbury and Sonic), Dineen pointed out that Ford Motor Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 9.8, while General Motors Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 8.7. Meanwhile, auto-parts retailers trade much higher, with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORLY\">$(ORLY)$</a> at a forward P/E of 21.6, AutoZone Inc.&nbsp;at 18.3 and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">Advance Auto Parts Inc</a>. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP.AU\">$(AAP.AU)$</a> at 17.4.</p>\n<p><b>Wall Street's view</b></p>\n<p>Here are expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales for the six dealers, based on consensus estimates through calendar 2023 among analysts polled by FactSet. Sales numbers are in millions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d968e14be726da45e216a570cf2611\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p></p>\n<p>Here's a summary of opinion among brokerage firms' analysts polled by FactSet:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dcc4a4bba95e6f9cf88346a9f93ed4a\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"513\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p></p>\n<p>CarMax has 61% \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. However, the stock is close to its target price. The analysts see high double-digit upside for all the others, even though only a third rate AutoNation a buy.</p>\n<p><b>How does Tesla fit in?</b></p>\n<p>When asked about the long-term viability of new-car dealers, in light of Tesla Inc.'s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> non-dealer distribution model for its electric vehicles, Dineen said: \"What really matters to us is valuation.\"</p>\n<p>\"There is no question that Tesla is an awesome company,\" he said, but he added that Tesla's stock is \"priced to win 100% of electric-vehicle sales.\"</p>\n<p>\"When we look at automotive in general, we think the dealers make the most sense,\" he said.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 13:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sales-surge-might-make-this-industry-your-best-stock-market-play-for-2022-11638884309?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be one glaring exception.\nDavid Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sales-surge-might-make-this-industry-your-best-stock-market-play-for-2022-11638884309?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GPI":"汽车一组","ABG":"阿斯伯里汽车集团","KMX":"车美仕","AN":"车之国公司","SAH":"索尼克汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LAD":"利西亚车行"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sales-surge-might-make-this-industry-your-best-stock-market-play-for-2022-11638884309?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190200176","content_text":"For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be one glaring exception.\nDavid Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large auto-dealer chains, including AutoNation, for a rebound in new-car sales as supply shortages subside.\nThis has been quite a year for many industries, and not only because of sales rebounds after so many businesses were temporarily shut down during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.\nUnprecedented stimulus payments by the federal government to consumers have helped feed pent-up demand, and with component supply disruptions, the most obvious distortion has been seen on auto-dealer lots.\nThis is why David Dineen, the chief investment officer for global small-cap at Spouting Rock Asset Management, believes that three large auto-dealer chains are well-positioned for stock-price gains in 2022 and beyond.\n\"We are coming off trough sales for this economic cycle\" for new cars, he said during an interview.\nSpouting Rock Asset Management is based in Bryn Mawr, Penn., and has $3.1 billion in assets under management.\nThe supply shortage has led to a decline in sales of new cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units in October from a SAAR of 18. 8 million in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis\nDineen described the October SAAR as \"a recessionary level,\" underscoring an opportunity for investors, because the auto dealers trade at lower valuations than auto manufacturers and parts suppliers.\nBad 'comps' for many industries in 2022\nWhen covering financial results, Wall Street analysts and the financial media are fixated on year-over-year comparisons because of seasonality. But those \"comps\" can paint a confusing picture. For example, an industry whose sales dropped during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 might have shown stellar \"improvement\" a year later, even if its sales hadn't come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels.\nArtificially high year-over-year increases in sales, profits or cash flow this year may be followed by much slower growth rates as business in various industries gets closer to pre-pandemic norms.\nAccording to Dineen, \"you will have difficult comps for much of consumption in 2022.\"\nAnd that's why he thinks large dealers who sell new cars are a good place for investors who wish to make another pandemic rebound play.\nLow valuations for auto dealers\nThe auto dealers as a group have suffered a \"re-rating\" by investors as the shortage of new cars has caused sales to tumble, while creating upward price pressure and shortages of used cars.\nTo illustrate how this has affected stock valuations relative to earnings, we looked at the six auto dealers included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index (made up of the S&P 500 , the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index $(MID)$ and the S&P Small Cap Index ). Here's how forward price-to-earnings ratios for the six car dealers have moved since the end of 2019:\nFactSet\nThe forward P/E ratios are based on rolling 12-month earnings estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.\nThe exception to downward P/E movement for these dealers has been CarMax Inc..\n\"CarMax has had the most leverage to the used car market, which has been on fire,\" Dineen said. The five other dealers on the chart sell both new and used vehicles. Looking ahead over the next two years, as the supply chain presumably recovers and new-car production rebounds, he favors AutoNation Inc. (AN), Asbury Automotive Inc. $(ABG)$, and Sonic Automotive Inc. $(SAH)$ for an increase in P/E ratios and share prices.\nFor CarMax, comparisons may get \"slippery\" over the next two years, if a return to 2019 or 2020 sales levels for new cars causes the used-car market to cool, Dineen said.\nHere's an easier way to compare current forward P/E ratios for the six dealers in the Composite 1500 to their pre-pandemic levels. The list is sorted by market capitalization:\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIn contrast to the three dealers he favors (AutoNation, Asbury and Sonic), Dineen pointed out that Ford Motor Co. $(F)$ trades at a forward P/E of 9.8, while General Motors Co. $(GM)$ trades at a forward P/E of 8.7. Meanwhile, auto-parts retailers trade much higher, with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. $(ORLY)$ at a forward P/E of 21.6, AutoZone Inc. at 18.3 and Advance Auto Parts Inc. $(AAP.AU)$ at 17.4.\nWall Street's view\nHere are expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales for the six dealers, based on consensus estimates through calendar 2023 among analysts polled by FactSet. Sales numbers are in millions.\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHere's a summary of opinion among brokerage firms' analysts polled by FactSet:\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCarMax has 61% \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. However, the stock is close to its target price. The analysts see high double-digit upside for all the others, even though only a third rate AutoNation a buy.\nHow does Tesla fit in?\nWhen asked about the long-term viability of new-car dealers, in light of Tesla Inc.'s $(TSLA)$ non-dealer distribution model for its electric vehicles, Dineen said: \"What really matters to us is valuation.\"\n\"There is no question that Tesla is an awesome company,\" he said, but he added that Tesla's stock is \"priced to win 100% of electric-vehicle sales.\"\n\"When we look at automotive in general, we think the dealers make the most sense,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABG":0.9,"AN":0.9,"GPI":0.9,"KMX":0.9,"LAD":0.9,"SAH":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1700,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}