社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
点赞
点赞
回复
评论
收藏
编组 21备份 2
分享
矩形
约翰算法
09-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
“旧经济正在反扑”!高盛前大宗商品主管:燃油短缺正在引发结构性通货膨胀
布伦特原油突破107美元,柴油裂解价差飙升至110美元。高盛前大宗商品主管Jeff Currie认为,中国需求回归叠加多年实物商品投资不足,正将供给冲击演变为结构性通胀压力。汇丰也警告“超级挤压”已经开启,市场或面临更持久的大宗商品通胀周期。
“旧经济正在反扑”!高盛前大宗商品主管:燃油短缺正在引发结构性通货膨胀
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
形状备份
点赞
举报
登录后可参与评论
评论
推荐
最新
暂无评论
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":606657855844584,"tweetId":"606657855844584","gmtCreate":1789133323071,"gmtModify":1789133324751,"author":{"id":4109459843394580,"idStr":"4109459843394580","authorId":4109459843394580,"authorIdStr":"4109459843394580","name":"约翰算法","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606657855844584","repostId":2666852195,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2666852195","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1789126565,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2666852195?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-11 19:36","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"“旧经济正在反扑”!高盛前大宗商品主管:燃油短缺正在引发结构性通货膨胀","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2666852195","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"布伦特原油突破107美元,柴油裂解价差飙升至110美元。高盛前大宗商品主管Jeff Currie认为,中国需求回归叠加多年实物商品投资不足,正将供给冲击演变为结构性通胀压力。汇丰也警告“超级挤压”已经开启,市场或面临更持久的大宗商品通胀周期。","content":"<html><body><p>布伦特原油突破每桶107美元,柴油裂解价差飙升至每桶110美元——这一轮大宗商品涨势正在引发一个更深层的警告:<strong>多年来对实物商品产能的系统性投资不足,正在将一场供给冲击演变为结构性通胀压力。</strong></p>\n<p><strong><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a5861e1b-8d5e-414d-a347-99d0c6f5d74b.png\"/></strong></p>\n<p>高盛前大宗商品业务主管、现任Real Macro负责人Jeff Currie周四接受CNBC采访时表示,此轮布伦特原油涨势已越来越难以被定性为短暂冲击。他警告称,市场正在低估一个由实物商品长期供给短缺所驱动的通胀周期。\"旧经济正在反扑,\"Currie说,\"你在利率市场看到了,你在大宗商品市场也看到了。\"</p>\n<p>与此同时,汇丰全球大宗商品首席经济学家Paul Bloxham本周在研究报告中同样发出警示,称一场\"超级挤压\"已经开始,与Currie的多头判断形成呼应。</p>\n<h2>中国需求回归,成为油价上涨的核心驱动力</h2>\n<p>面对外界将本轮油价上涨归因于海湾地区冲突升级的解读,Currie明确表示,<strong>他将更大的权重放在中国需求的重新入场上</strong>。他表示,在结束新加坡和香港之行后,他观察到强烈的中国买盘兴趣。</p>\n<p>Currie解释称,今年夏季早些时候,由于获取原油的渠道趋紧,中国曾削减炼厂运营规模并减少成品油出口,这在一定程度上加剧了全球精炼产品的供给紧张。然而,异常高企的柴油利润随后创造出强烈的重启激励——炼厂陆续恢复生产,带动原油需求重新涌入一个本已承压的市场。</p>\n<p>\"这就像一场地震,\"Currie说,\"他们开始追逐利润,把那些炼厂重新开起来,冲击就这样传导开来。\"</p>\n<h2>柴油裂解价差破纪录,精炼利润超过原油本身</h2>\n<p>此轮行情中最引人注目的信号之一,<strong>是美国柴油裂解价差已升至每桶110美元——这一数字甚至超过了原油本身的价格。</strong>裂解价差衡量的是炼厂将原油加工为成品油所获得的利润空间,而非成品油的绝对价格。</p>\n<p>\"这是相当可观的利润,\"Currie表示。如此高企的精炼利润,既是推动中国炼厂重启的直接诱因,也是当前实物商品市场供需失衡程度的直观体现。</p>\n<h2>\"这不是暂时的\":结构性通胀叙事正在成形</h2>\n<p>Currie指出,此轮布伦特原油涨势正在展现出更强的持续性特征——股票市场和远期油价均开始反映一种更为持久的供给扰动预期,而非短期冲击。</p>\n<p>他将这一轮通胀压力的根源追溯至多年来对实物商品生产和运输产能的系统性投资不足,并认为这一结构性矛盾在利率市场和大宗商品市场均已有所体现。</p>\n<p>\"人们开始意识到,这不是暂时的,\"Currie说,<strong>\"这一次的味道不一样。\"</strong></p>\n<p>这一判断与他此前夏季对实物市场稀缺性的预警一脉相承,也与汇丰Paul Bloxham关于\"超级挤压\"已经开启的最新警示相互印证,共同指向一个正在成形的市场共识:大宗商品的结构性短缺,或将成为未来通胀走势中难以回避的变量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“旧经济正在反扑”!高盛前大宗商品主管:燃油短缺正在引发结构性通货膨胀</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“旧经济正在反扑”!高盛前大宗商品主管:燃油短缺正在引发结构性通货膨胀\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-11 19:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>布伦特原油突破每桶107美元,柴油裂解价差飙升至每桶110美元——这一轮大宗商品涨势正在引发一个更深层的警告:<strong>多年来对实物商品产能的系统性投资不足,正在将一场供给冲击演变为结构性通胀压力。</strong></p>\n<p><strong><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a5861e1b-8d5e-414d-a347-99d0c6f5d74b.png\"/></strong></p>\n<p>高盛前大宗商品业务主管、现任Real Macro负责人Jeff Currie周四接受CNBC采访时表示,此轮布伦特原油涨势已越来越难以被定性为短暂冲击。他警告称,市场正在低估一个由实物商品长期供给短缺所驱动的通胀周期。\"旧经济正在反扑,\"Currie说,\"你在利率市场看到了,你在大宗商品市场也看到了。\"</p>\n<p>与此同时,汇丰全球大宗商品首席经济学家Paul Bloxham本周在研究报告中同样发出警示,称一场\"超级挤压\"已经开始,与Currie的多头判断形成呼应。</p>\n<h2>中国需求回归,成为油价上涨的核心驱动力</h2>\n<p>面对外界将本轮油价上涨归因于海湾地区冲突升级的解读,Currie明确表示,<strong>他将更大的权重放在中国需求的重新入场上</strong>。他表示,在结束新加坡和香港之行后,他观察到强烈的中国买盘兴趣。</p>\n<p>Currie解释称,今年夏季早些时候,由于获取原油的渠道趋紧,中国曾削减炼厂运营规模并减少成品油出口,这在一定程度上加剧了全球精炼产品的供给紧张。然而,异常高企的柴油利润随后创造出强烈的重启激励——炼厂陆续恢复生产,带动原油需求重新涌入一个本已承压的市场。</p>\n<p>\"这就像一场地震,\"Currie说,\"他们开始追逐利润,把那些炼厂重新开起来,冲击就这样传导开来。\"</p>\n<h2>柴油裂解价差破纪录,精炼利润超过原油本身</h2>\n<p>此轮行情中最引人注目的信号之一,<strong>是美国柴油裂解价差已升至每桶110美元——这一数字甚至超过了原油本身的价格。</strong>裂解价差衡量的是炼厂将原油加工为成品油所获得的利润空间,而非成品油的绝对价格。</p>\n<p>\"这是相当可观的利润,\"Currie表示。如此高企的精炼利润,既是推动中国炼厂重启的直接诱因,也是当前实物商品市场供需失衡程度的直观体现。</p>\n<h2>\"这不是暂时的\":结构性通胀叙事正在成形</h2>\n<p>Currie指出,此轮布伦特原油涨势正在展现出更强的持续性特征——股票市场和远期油价均开始反映一种更为持久的供给扰动预期,而非短期冲击。</p>\n<p>他将这一轮通胀压力的根源追溯至多年来对实物商品生产和运输产能的系统性投资不足,并认为这一结构性矛盾在利率市场和大宗商品市场均已有所体现。</p>\n<p>\"人们开始意识到,这不是暂时的,\"Currie说,<strong>\"这一次的味道不一样。\"</strong></p>\n<p>这一判断与他此前夏季对实物市场稀缺性的预警一脉相承,也与汇丰Paul Bloxham关于\"超级挤压\"已经开启的最新警示相互印证,共同指向一个正在成形的市场共识:大宗商品的结构性短缺,或将成为未来通胀走势中难以回避的变量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","EEV":"新兴市场ETF-ProShares UltraShort 两","000979.SH":"大宗商品","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1144417596.USD":"UBS (LUX) GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND EQUITY \"Q\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","GSX":"Tradr 2X Long GS Daily ETF","BK4588":"碎股","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3781587","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2666852195","content_text":"布伦特原油突破每桶107美元,柴油裂解价差飙升至每桶110美元——这一轮大宗商品涨势正在引发一个更深层的警告:多年来对实物商品产能的系统性投资不足,正在将一场供给冲击演变为结构性通胀压力。\n\n高盛前大宗商品业务主管、现任Real Macro负责人Jeff Currie周四接受CNBC采访时表示,此轮布伦特原油涨势已越来越难以被定性为短暂冲击。他警告称,市场正在低估一个由实物商品长期供给短缺所驱动的通胀周期。\"旧经济正在反扑,\"Currie说,\"你在利率市场看到了,你在大宗商品市场也看到了。\"\n与此同时,汇丰全球大宗商品首席经济学家Paul Bloxham本周在研究报告中同样发出警示,称一场\"超级挤压\"已经开始,与Currie的多头判断形成呼应。\n中国需求回归,成为油价上涨的核心驱动力\n面对外界将本轮油价上涨归因于海湾地区冲突升级的解读,Currie明确表示,他将更大的权重放在中国需求的重新入场上。他表示,在结束新加坡和香港之行后,他观察到强烈的中国买盘兴趣。\nCurrie解释称,今年夏季早些时候,由于获取原油的渠道趋紧,中国曾削减炼厂运营规模并减少成品油出口,这在一定程度上加剧了全球精炼产品的供给紧张。然而,异常高企的柴油利润随后创造出强烈的重启激励——炼厂陆续恢复生产,带动原油需求重新涌入一个本已承压的市场。\n\"这就像一场地震,\"Currie说,\"他们开始追逐利润,把那些炼厂重新开起来,冲击就这样传导开来。\"\n柴油裂解价差破纪录,精炼利润超过原油本身\n此轮行情中最引人注目的信号之一,是美国柴油裂解价差已升至每桶110美元——这一数字甚至超过了原油本身的价格。裂解价差衡量的是炼厂将原油加工为成品油所获得的利润空间,而非成品油的绝对价格。\n\"这是相当可观的利润,\"Currie表示。如此高企的精炼利润,既是推动中国炼厂重启的直接诱因,也是当前实物商品市场供需失衡程度的直观体现。\n\"这不是暂时的\":结构性通胀叙事正在成形\nCurrie指出,此轮布伦特原油涨势正在展现出更强的持续性特征——股票市场和远期油价均开始反映一种更为持久的供给扰动预期,而非短期冲击。\n他将这一轮通胀压力的根源追溯至多年来对实物商品生产和运输产能的系统性投资不足,并认为这一结构性矛盾在利率市场和大宗商品市场均已有所体现。\n\"人们开始意识到,这不是暂时的,\"Currie说,\"这一次的味道不一样。\"\n这一判断与他此前夏季对实物市场稀缺性的预警一脉相承,也与汇丰Paul Bloxham关于\"超级挤压\"已经开启的最新警示相互印证,共同指向一个正在成形的市场共识:大宗商品的结构性短缺,或将成为未来通胀走势中难以回避的变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":1.5,"000979.SH":1.5,"HOmain":1.5,"GSX":0.6,"EEV":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}