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2021-12-14

One can only hope

Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>

Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve i

Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>

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History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.<blockquote>由于美联储取消对市场和经济支持的消息，股市似乎即将度过一段困难时期。历史告诉我们，持续的反弹可能很快就会开始。</blockquote> As of Dec. 1, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it&nbsp;slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.<blockquote>截至12月1日，标普500指数已较11月18日触及的历史高点下跌4.1%，周五仅反弹4.4%至收盘新高4712.02点。周一，该股回落，跌幅为0.9%。</blockquote> The volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.<blockquote>波动的核心是美联储通过放弃2020年疫情肆虐经济时采取的积极促进增长的努力来对抗通胀。美联储不仅已经每月减少数百亿美元的债券购买量，而且主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，更多的削减正在进行中。几个月内，美联储将购买零美元的美国国债，而就在11月份，美联储每月购买650亿美元。</blockquote> That could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.<blockquote>这可能会拖累债券价格下跌，提高收益率，并使家庭和企业更难借到钱。这不仅可能减缓经济增长，还意味着流经金融市场的资金将减少，从而导致可用于竞标股票和其他风险资产的资本减少。而一旦美联储结束了债券购买计划，就会将注意力转向提高短期利率。</blockquote> But it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”<blockquote>但越来越多的人认为股市已经考虑到了这些走势。花旗集团（Citigroup）交易所交易基金研究全球主管斯科特·克罗纳特（Scott Chronert）周五在一份研究报告中写道：“今年春天，一旦供应链影响变得更加明显，并且通胀比较开始加速，市场就开始低估美联储最终的紧缩政策。”“在美联储鹰派改变之前卖出不确定性通常会导致在不确定性缓解时买入。”</blockquote> Buying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&amp;P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.<blockquote>鉴于市场在过去四个加息周期中的行为，购买活动可能会在未来几个月内回升。瑞士信贷的数据显示，从首次加息前一年到加息后六个月，标普500平均涨幅近15%。从同一起点到首次加息后12个月，平均涨幅为18%。</blockquote> That doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.<blockquote>这并不意味着投资者应该盲目地将资金投入股市：未来可能会出现更大的波动。瑞士信贷表示，在首次加息前的几个月，市场通常只会小幅上涨。在这几个月里，投资者往往仍在评估收紧货币政策可能对经济造成的损害。</blockquote> That’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.<blockquote>今天尤其如此。债券市场已经反映出美联储可能会犯一个错误，加息太多次、太快，突然扼杀经济增长。</blockquote> The Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.<blockquote>美联储不习惯试图平息通胀。自2008-2009年金融危机时代以来的整个时代——当然还有大流行肆虐的2020年——美联储都试图通过实施宽松的货币政策来推高通胀。现在，它正试图压低通胀，投资者正在问自己，这样做是否会损害经济需求。</blockquote> But one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.<blockquote>但有一件事似乎是一个可靠的赌注。股市的波涛汹涌可能是暂时的：如果美联储不过于激进地收紧政策，牛市可能会继续下去。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-14 09:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve is removing support from markets and the economy. History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.<blockquote>由于美联储取消对市场和经济支持的消息，股市似乎即将度过一段困难时期。历史告诉我们，持续的反弹可能很快就会开始。</blockquote> As of Dec. 1, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it&nbsp;slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.<blockquote>截至12月1日，标普500指数已较11月18日触及的历史高点下跌4.1%，周五仅反弹4.4%至收盘新高4712.02点。周一，该股回落，跌幅为0.9%。</blockquote> The volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.<blockquote>波动的核心是美联储通过放弃2020年疫情肆虐经济时采取的积极促进增长的努力来对抗通胀。美联储不仅已经每月减少数百亿美元的债券购买量，而且主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，更多的削减正在进行中。几个月内，美联储将购买零美元的美国国债，而就在11月份，美联储每月购买650亿美元。</blockquote> That could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.<blockquote>这可能会拖累债券价格下跌，提高收益率，并使家庭和企业更难借到钱。这不仅可能减缓经济增长，还意味着流经金融市场的资金将减少，从而导致可用于竞标股票和其他风险资产的资本减少。而一旦美联储结束了债券购买计划，就会将注意力转向提高短期利率。</blockquote> But it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”<blockquote>但越来越多的人认为股市已经考虑到了这些走势。花旗集团（Citigroup）交易所交易基金研究全球主管斯科特·克罗纳特（Scott Chronert）周五在一份研究报告中写道：“今年春天，一旦供应链影响变得更加明显，并且通胀比较开始加速，市场就开始低估美联储最终的紧缩政策。”“在美联储鹰派改变之前卖出不确定性通常会导致在不确定性缓解时买入。”</blockquote> Buying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&amp;P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.<blockquote>鉴于市场在过去四个加息周期中的行为，购买活动可能会在未来几个月内回升。瑞士信贷的数据显示，从首次加息前一年到加息后六个月，标普500平均涨幅近15%。从同一起点到首次加息后12个月，平均涨幅为18%。</blockquote> That doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.<blockquote>这并不意味着投资者应该盲目地将资金投入股市：未来可能会出现更大的波动。瑞士信贷表示，在首次加息前的几个月，市场通常只会小幅上涨。在这几个月里，投资者往往仍在评估收紧货币政策可能对经济造成的损害。</blockquote> That’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.<blockquote>今天尤其如此。债券市场已经反映出美联储可能会犯一个错误，加息太多次、太快，突然扼杀经济增长。</blockquote> The Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.<blockquote>美联储不习惯试图平息通胀。自2008-2009年金融危机时代以来的整个时代——当然还有大流行肆虐的2020年——美联储都试图通过实施宽松的货币政策来推高通胀。现在，它正试图压低通胀，投资者正在问自己，这样做是否会损害经济需求。</blockquote> But one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.<blockquote>但有一件事似乎是一个可靠的赌注。股市的波涛汹涌可能是暂时的：如果美联储不过于激进地收紧政策，牛市可能会继续下去。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-fed-tightening-taper-rate-hike-51639430005?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-fed-tightening-taper-rate-hike-51639430005?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186687745","content_text":"Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve is removing support from markets and the economy. History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.\nAs of Dec. 1, the S&P 500 had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.\nThe volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.\nThat could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.\nBut it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”\nBuying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.\nThat doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.\nThat’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.\nThe Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.\nBut one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1633,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>

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