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[笑哭] 这评级根本没有考虑民主党对算力基建的打压

大摩上调AMD目标价至550美元：2027年服务器CPU增速预期从70%跳升至100%

最引人注目的是服务器CPU的增长前景。大摩在报告中指出，2026年前三季度AMD服务器CPU 出货量同比增长约50%，收入同比增长约90%;而公司对2027年服务器CPU收入增长的指引已从此前的70%上调至100%以上，供应瓶颈并未像制约英特尔那样限制 AMD。大摩将2027年 GPU 收入预期小幅上调5亿美元至400亿美元，基本维持对明年约3GW装机量的基准判断。

大摩上调AMD目标价至550美元：2027年服务器CPU增速预期从70%跳升至100%

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":626259914899896,"tweetId":"626259914899896","gmtCreate":1793910698549,"gmtModify":1793925431354,"author":{"id":3584045564639912,"idStr":"3584045564639912","authorId":3584045564639912,"authorIdStr":"3584045564639912","name":"就问你是不是傻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b117236bc0c03e6f04cfc4e6f98985","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[笑哭]&nbsp;</span> 这评级根本没有考虑民主党对算力基建的打压</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[笑哭]&nbsp;</span> 这评级根本没有考虑民主党对算力基建的打压</p></body></html>","text":"[笑哭] 这评级根本没有考虑民主党对算力基建的打压","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626259914899896","repostId":2681922870,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2681922870","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1793837582,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2681922870?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-11-05 08:13","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大摩上调AMD目标价至550美元：2027年服务器CPU增速预期从70%跳升至100%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2681922870","media":"智通财经","summary":"最引人注目的是服务器CPU的增长前景。大摩在报告中指出，2026年前三季度AMD服务器CPU 出货量同比增长约50%，收入同比增长约90%;而公司对2027年服务器CPU收入增长的指引已从此前的70%上调至100%以上，供应瓶颈并未像制约英特尔那样限制 AMD。大摩将2027年 GPU 收入预期小幅上调5亿美元至400亿美元，基本维持对明年约3GW装机量的基准判断。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月5日，摩根士丹利发布最新研报指出，得益于数据中心的强劲表现，尤其是服务器CPU业务的超预期上修，AMD(AMD.US)成功对冲了PC市场的疲软。大摩将AMD2027财年营收预期从891.3亿美元上调至989.4亿美元，非GAAP 每股收益(EPS)预期从15.64美元上调至18.77美元，并将目标价从510美元上调至550美元;不过考虑到估值已高于英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>等同行，该行维持“与大市持平”评级不变。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044cb1d6120572a0d58c3dab5be489c0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>财报数据显示，AMD第三财季营收达133.77亿美元，同比增长44.7%，环比增长16%，高于市场预期的130.96亿美元;非GAAP规则下EPS为2.09美元，超出市场预期的1.95美元;非GAAP毛利率55.9%，与预期一致。分业务看，数据中心业务营收85.46亿美元，同比大增96.9%，环比增长27.2%;客户端业务营收29.49亿美元，同比增长7.2%;游戏业务营收7.73亿美元，同比下滑40.4%;嵌入式业务营收11.09亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</p><p>最引人注目的是服务器CPU的增长前景。大摩在报告中指出，2026年前三季度AMD服务器CPU 出货量同比增长约50%(同期英特尔仅增4%)，收入同比增长约90%;而公司对2027年服务器CPU收入增长的指引已从此前的70%上调至100%以上，供应瓶颈并未像制约英特尔那样限制 AMD。大摩估算，明年两家公司合计的服务器CPU出货增量中，AMD将贡献略超60%，英特尔将损失大致相当的份额——即便在 IDM(自有工厂)模式理论上最应受益的紧供应环境中，英特尔也未能扭转份额流失的趋势。报告同时提醒，英特尔最早要到2028年下半年才可能提供有竞争力的对标产品，AMD 的长增长跑道依然清晰。</p><p>AI GPU方面，AMD本季度首次确认Helios机架级产品收入，公司表示所有核心客户对2027年的需求都很高，内部预测较90天前进一步上调。大摩将2027年 GPU 收入预期小幅上调5亿美元至400亿美元，基本维持对明年约3GW装机量的基准判断。但报告也提示了增长的“代价”：本季度 AMD 确认了11亿美元与认股权证相关的会计费用，导致 GAAP EPS较非GAAP 低约43%。大摩认为，这笔相对于季度约35亿美元GPU收入而言不小的成本，应当像市场对大型科技公司“循环融资”的担忧一样，反映在 AMD 的估值折价中。</p><p>此外，PC业务仍是隐忧。AMD对第四季度的客户端收入指引较环比下滑约23%，比大摩财报前的最新预期低约4亿美元，趋势与英特尔此前的业绩修正相似。不过由于 PC 目前仅占 AMD 收入不足10%，对整体盈利影响有限，大摩预计客户端CPU将在2026年二季度见底(同比下滑30%+)。</p><p>基于新的盈利预测，大摩给予AMD约20倍2028财年EPS(27.59美元)的目标估值，对应550美元目标价——较11月3日收盘价483.90美元有约14%的上行空间。该行同时给出牛市情形750美元、熊市情形300美元的目标区间。大摩总结称，AMD在服务器CPU上的执行力“非常出色”，在 CPU主题上明显偏好 AMD 而非英特尔;但考虑到2027/2028年 GPU 业务将分别占其收入的42%/46%，而该领域龙头目前仅交易于约10倍2028年市盈率，AMD 约20倍的估值溢价“过宽”，且其100%的服务器增速恐怕仍难跑赢 ARM 阵营，因此维持“平配”评级、静待更好的介入时机。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩上调AMD目标价至550美元：2027年服务器CPU增速预期从70%跳升至100%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-11-05 08:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1518759.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月5日，摩根士丹利发布最新研报指出，得益于数据中心的强劲表现，尤其是服务器CPU业务的超预期上修，AMD(AMD.US)成功对冲了PC市场的疲软。大摩将AMD2027财年营收预期从891.3亿美元上调至989.4亿美元，非GAAP 每股收益(EPS)预期从15.64美元上调至18.77美元，并将目标价从510美元上调至550美元;不过考虑到估值已高于英伟达、博通等同行，该行维持“与大市持平”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1518759.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","XNTK":"SPDR NYSE Technology ETF","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","TTEQ":"T. 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