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伯恩斯坦：为什么现在绝对不能抄底英伟达？

伯恩斯坦将英伟达评级下调至“与大市同步”，目标价腰斩至200美元。尽管公司基本面强劲且估值极具吸引力，但该行认为“发现蟑螂时绝不止两只”，叠加继任者空缺、潜在政府调查及供应链承诺生变等重重不确定性，负面消息尚未见底，建议投资者暂勿抄底、袖手旁观。

伯恩斯坦：为什么现在绝对不能抄底英伟达？

# 华尔街见闻

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Rasgon在报告中直言：<strong>在新的指控面前，董事会几乎不可能让黄仁勋留任；即便是在位，持续曝光的风险同样不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>在此背景下，伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>尽管英伟达股价已跌至&#34;近乎荒诞的低估&#34;水平，但仍强烈建议投资者暂时袖手旁观。公司基本面完好，但不确定性尚未出清——负面消息的底部在哪里，目前无从判断。</strong></p>\n<div>\n<h2>丑闻持续发酵，董事会骑虎难下</h2>\n</div>\n<p>事件的引爆点，是上周末曝光的一篇媒体报道：黄仁勋与Alice Huang存在不正当关系。黄仁勋随即于周日公开承认了这段关系，英伟达董事会旋即宣布启动独立调查。</p>\n<p>然而，事态随后迅速升级。据最新报道，黄仁勋还与一名直接下属存在不当关系，据称当事人为公司医疗健康业务副总裁Kimberly Powell。目前英伟达正在筹备将其扫地出门。</p>\n<p>对此，伯恩斯坦判断：有些CEO因为远比这轻微的原因就被终止职务。<strong>在新的指控浮出水面之后，董事会继续保留黄仁勋的可能性极低；而如果董事会此时仍选择按兵不动，则意味着更多丑闻浮现只是时间问题，届时风险将进一步叠加。</strong></p>\n<div>\n<h2>基本面完好，但不确定性无法定价</h2>\n</div>\n<p>伯恩斯坦强调，此次评级下调并非源于对英伟达业务前景的悲观判断。<strong>从其最新预测来看，公司数据中心业务的成长轨迹依然陡峭</strong>——2026财年数据中心营收预计约3783亿美元，2027财年进一步攀升至6578亿美元，2028财年有望突破9182亿美元。整体营收预计将从2026财年的4069亿美元增长至2027财年的6903亿美元，年增速近70%。每股收益方面，伯恩斯坦预计2027/2028财年（FY28/29）平均非GAAP每股盈利为19.04美元，据此将目标价设定在200美元，对应约11倍的远期市盈率，大幅低于此前21倍的估值倍数。</p>\n<p>报告指出，在管理层过渡期间，公司的日常运营应不会受到显著干扰。然而，真正令分析师感到棘手的，是继任者问题。&#34;内部提拔还是外部空降？他们能找到谁来接黄仁勋的班？&#34;——这些问题目前均无答案，而任何答案的出现，都将为市场带来新的变量。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>&#34;厨房里的蟑螂&#34;：负面消息或未见底</h2>\n</div>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中用了一个颇为形象的比喻来阐述其核心逻辑：如果你在厨房里发现了两只蟑螂，最合理的推断绝不是整个厨房里只有两只蟑螂。</p>\n<p>基于这一判断，分析师认为，当前浮现的丑闻极可能只是冰山一角。<strong>未来可能接踵而至的，不仅包括更多内部指控，还有潜在的政府调查，以及由此引发的一系列业务层面的不确定性</strong>——包括英伟达此前在供应链上所作的大量战略性投资、各类兜底承诺和剩余担保的命运，均面临悬念。与此同时，部分竞争对手的股票近日已因相关消息面出现上涨，或将继续受益。</p>\n<p>Rasgon在报告中坦言，对于这一判断，他自己也&#34;颇为纠结&#34;，完全能够理解逢低买入的逻辑。但他的直觉告诉他，这口井的深度还没有被完全探明。正因如此，伯恩斯坦选择暂时退出，从场外观望。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Rasgon在报告中直言：<strong>在新的指控面前，董事会几乎不可能让黄仁勋留任；即便是在位，持续曝光的风险同样不容忽视。</strong></p>\n<p>在此背景下，伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>尽管英伟达股价已跌至&#34;近乎荒诞的低估&#34;水平，但仍强烈建议投资者暂时袖手旁观。公司基本面完好，但不确定性尚未出清——负面消息的底部在哪里，目前无从判断。</strong></p>\n<div>\n<h2>丑闻持续发酵，董事会骑虎难下</h2>\n</div>\n<p>事件的引爆点，是上周末曝光的一篇媒体报道：黄仁勋与Alice Huang存在不正当关系。黄仁勋随即于周日公开承认了这段关系，英伟达董事会旋即宣布启动独立调查。</p>\n<p>然而，事态随后迅速升级。据最新报道，黄仁勋还与一名直接下属存在不当关系，据称当事人为公司医疗健康业务副总裁Kimberly Powell。目前英伟达正在筹备将其扫地出门。</p>\n<p>对此，伯恩斯坦判断：有些CEO因为远比这轻微的原因就被终止职务。<strong>在新的指控浮出水面之后，董事会继续保留黄仁勋的可能性极低；而如果董事会此时仍选择按兵不动，则意味着更多丑闻浮现只是时间问题，届时风险将进一步叠加。</strong></p>\n<div>\n<h2>基本面完好，但不确定性无法定价</h2>\n</div>\n<p>伯恩斯坦强调，此次评级下调并非源于对英伟达业务前景的悲观判断。<strong>从其最新预测来看，公司数据中心业务的成长轨迹依然陡峭</strong>——2026财年数据中心营收预计约3783亿美元，2027财年进一步攀升至6578亿美元，2028财年有望突破9182亿美元。整体营收预计将从2026财年的4069亿美元增长至2027财年的6903亿美元，年增速近70%。每股收益方面，伯恩斯坦预计2027/2028财年（FY28/29）平均非GAAP每股盈利为19.04美元，据此将目标价设定在200美元，对应约11倍的远期市盈率，大幅低于此前21倍的估值倍数。</p>\n<p>报告指出，在管理层过渡期间，公司的日常运营应不会受到显著干扰。然而，真正令分析师感到棘手的，是继任者问题。&#34;内部提拔还是外部空降？他们能找到谁来接黄仁勋的班？&#34;——这些问题目前均无答案，而任何答案的出现，都将为市场带来新的变量。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>&#34;厨房里的蟑螂&#34;：负面消息或未见底</h2>\n</div>\n<p>伯恩斯坦在报告中用了一个颇为形象的比喻来阐述其核心逻辑：如果你在厨房里发现了两只蟑螂，最合理的推断绝不是整个厨房里只有两只蟑螂。</p>\n<p>基于这一判断，分析师认为，当前浮现的丑闻极可能只是冰山一角。<strong>未来可能接踵而至的，不仅包括更多内部指控，还有潜在的政府调查，以及由此引发的一系列业务层面的不确定性</strong>——包括英伟达此前在供应链上所作的大量战略性投资、各类兜底承诺和剩余担保的命运，均面临悬念。与此同时，部分竞争对手的股票近日已因相关消息面出现上涨，或将继续受益。</p>\n<p>Rasgon在报告中坦言，对于这一判断，他自己也&#34;颇为纠结&#34;，完全能够理解逢低买入的逻辑。但他的直觉告诉他，这口井的深度还没有被完全探明。正因如此，伯恩斯坦选择暂时退出，从场外观望。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde2e4fc86b629e1a7a7708ea53eb694","relate_stocks":{"LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1935043452.HKD":"宏利环球多元资产收益 \"AA\" 基金（港元）派息","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - 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Rasgon在报告中直言：在新的指控面前，董事会几乎不可能让黄仁勋留任；即便是在位，持续曝光的风险同样不容忽视。\n在此背景下，伯恩斯坦认为，尽管英伟达股价已跌至\"近乎荒诞的低估\"水平，但仍强烈建议投资者暂时袖手旁观。公司基本面完好，但不确定性尚未出清——负面消息的底部在哪里，目前无从判断。\n\n丑闻持续发酵，董事会骑虎难下\n\n事件的引爆点，是上周末曝光的一篇媒体报道：黄仁勋与Alice Huang存在不正当关系。黄仁勋随即于周日公开承认了这段关系，英伟达董事会旋即宣布启动独立调查。\n然而，事态随后迅速升级。据最新报道，黄仁勋还与一名直接下属存在不当关系，据称当事人为公司医疗健康业务副总裁Kimberly Powell。目前英伟达正在筹备将其扫地出门。\n对此，伯恩斯坦判断：有些CEO因为远比这轻微的原因就被终止职务。在新的指控浮出水面之后，董事会继续保留黄仁勋的可能性极低；而如果董事会此时仍选择按兵不动，则意味着更多丑闻浮现只是时间问题，届时风险将进一步叠加。\n\n基本面完好，但不确定性无法定价\n\n伯恩斯坦强调，此次评级下调并非源于对英伟达业务前景的悲观判断。从其最新预测来看，公司数据中心业务的成长轨迹依然陡峭——2026财年数据中心营收预计约3783亿美元，2027财年进一步攀升至6578亿美元，2028财年有望突破9182亿美元。整体营收预计将从2026财年的4069亿美元增长至2027财年的6903亿美元，年增速近70%。每股收益方面，伯恩斯坦预计2027/2028财年（FY28/29）平均非GAAP每股盈利为19.04美元，据此将目标价设定在200美元，对应约11倍的远期市盈率，大幅低于此前21倍的估值倍数。\n报告指出，在管理层过渡期间，公司的日常运营应不会受到显著干扰。然而，真正令分析师感到棘手的，是继任者问题。\"内部提拔还是外部空降？他们能找到谁来接黄仁勋的班？\"——这些问题目前均无答案，而任何答案的出现，都将为市场带来新的变量。\n\n\"厨房里的蟑螂\"：负面消息或未见底\n\n伯恩斯坦在报告中用了一个颇为形象的比喻来阐述其核心逻辑：如果你在厨房里发现了两只蟑螂，最合理的推断绝不是整个厨房里只有两只蟑螂。\n基于这一判断，分析师认为，当前浮现的丑闻极可能只是冰山一角。未来可能接踵而至的，不仅包括更多内部指控，还有潜在的政府调查，以及由此引发的一系列业务层面的不确定性——包括英伟达此前在供应链上所作的大量战略性投资、各类兜底承诺和剩余担保的命运，均面临悬念。与此同时，部分竞争对手的股票近日已因相关消息面出现上涨，或将继续受益。\nRasgon在报告中坦言，对于这一判断，他自己也\"颇为纠结\"，完全能够理解逢低买入的逻辑。但他的直觉告诉他，这口井的深度还没有被完全探明。正因如此，伯恩斯坦选择暂时退出，从场外观望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVC":0.6,"VT":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"07388":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"USD":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"09388":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"SHOC":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"METV":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"09788":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"07788":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"SNVDAmain":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"AIFD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}