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2022-01-24

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Exxon Mobil: Set To Crush Expectations<blockquote>埃克森美孚：将超出预期</blockquote>

SummaryExxon Mobil has a good chance of delivering much better than expected earnings on February 1.

Exxon Mobil: Set To Crush Expectations<blockquote>埃克森美孚：将超出预期</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":630430289,"tweetId":"630430289","gmtCreate":1643012686140,"gmtModify":1643012686496,"author":{"id":3577529300728738,"idStr":"3577529300728738","authorId":3577529300728738,"authorIdStr":"3577529300728738","name":"Jennifer58","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a014efda004b6cc112e5d7968adf52f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":32,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Go go</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Go go</body></html>","text":"Go go","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630430289","repostId":1102851143,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102851143","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643012132,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102851143?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 16:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Exxon Mobil: Set To Crush Expectations<blockquote>埃克森美孚：将超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102851143","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryExxon Mobil has a good chance of delivering much better than expected earnings on February 1.","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Exxon Mobil has a good chance of delivering much better than expected earnings on February 1.</li><li>The petroleum firm benefited from product pricing strength in the fourth quarter.</li><li>In FY 2022, a pandemic end and recovering travel could drive business gains.</li><li>I am refreshing my free cash flow estimates for Exxon Mobil’s Q4.</li></ul>Exxon Mobil (XOM) is going to submit its earnings card for the fourth-quarter shortly and the petroleum company is most likely going to sail past estimates due to pricing strength in end-markets and improving free cash flow. While growth stocks are currently selling off, deep value and dividend stocks like Exxon Mobil have potential to build upon recent gains!<blockquote><ul><li>埃克森美孚很有可能在2月1日实现远好于预期的盈利。</li><li>该石油公司受益于第四季度产品定价的强势。</li><li>2022财年，疫情结束和旅行复苏可能会推动业务增长。</li><li>我正在更新对埃克森美孚第四季度自由现金流的预测。</li></ul>埃克森美孚(XOM)将很快提交第四季度收益卡，由于终端市场的定价优势和自由现金流的改善，该石油公司的业绩很可能会超出预期。虽然成长型股票目前正在抛售，但像埃克森美孚这样的深度价值和股息股票有潜力在近期上涨的基础上再接再厉！</blockquote>FY 2022 should see a continual market recovery and a restart of tourism industries<blockquote>2022财年市场将持续复苏，旅游业将重启</blockquote>The COVID-19 pandemic shattered Exxon Mobil&#39;s production business, but the energy firm is making a strong comeback due to a pandemic that is waning and higher market prices for petroleum that are all but set to improve earnings and free cash flow in the foreseeable future.<blockquote>COVID-19大流行摧毁了埃克森美孚的生产业务，但由于大流行的减弱和石油市场价格上涨，这家能源公司正在强劲复苏，在可预见的未来几乎将改善盈利和自由现金流。</blockquote>2021 was a recovery year for Exxon Mobil in which the firm restructured its business and repaid debt. This year, 2022, could see Exxon Mobil return to an expansionist business strategy which could be supported by continual pricing strength in end-markets and growing petroleum demand, especially from sectors that are involved in the tourism industry. I believe this because the most recent Omicron variant is not as deadly as initially feared and multiple countries could be on the brink of relaxing Coronavirus restrictions. The U.K. has said that it is going to lift all Coronavirus restrictions shortly, and there is evidence that the Omicron wave is past its peak in the U.S., too.<blockquote>2021年是埃克森美孚的复苏之年，该公司重组了业务并偿还了债务。今年，即2022年，埃克森美孚可能会回归扩张主义业务战略，这可能会得到终端市场持续的定价优势和不断增长的石油需求（尤其是旅游业相关行业）的支持。我相信这一点，因为最新的奥密克戎变种并不像最初担心的那样致命，而且多个国家可能即将放松冠状病毒限制。英国表示将很快取消所有冠状病毒限制，有证据表明美国的奥密克戎浪潮也已经过了顶峰。</blockquote>What this means is that petroleum demand could soar in 2022 as the world moves past COVID-19, and travel and hospitality industries continue on their recovery path. Prices for petroleum have recovered all throughout 2021 and are now near 1-year highs of around $85. The recovery in product pricing materially supports Exxon Mobil&#39;s free cash flow growth.<blockquote>这意味着，随着世界摆脱COVID-19，旅游和酒店业继续走在复苏道路上，石油需求可能会在2022年飙升。石油价格在2021年全年都有所回升，目前接近85美元左右的一年高点。产品定价的复苏极大地支持了埃克森美孚的自由现金流增长。</blockquote>Free cash flow recovery and refreshed estimates for Q4<blockquote>自由现金流复苏和第四季度更新预测</blockquote>Because of the strong pricing in petroleum markets in the fourth-quarter, I am refreshing my estimates for Exxon Mobil&#39;s free cash flow. Until recently, I expected the petroleum firm to generate $8.2B in Q4&#39;21 free cash flow which would bring total FY 2021 free cash flow to approximately $31.0B. In the third-quarter, Exxon Mobil saw a 25% increase in operating cash flow and a 30% increase in free cash flow, quarter over quarter. In the fourth-quarter, petroleum prices continued to soar, suggesting that both operating and free cash flow will be higher yet again when Exxon Mobil submits its earnings card next month. Because of the continual recovery in product prices in Q4&#39;21, I expect Exxon Mobil to generate $13.0B in operating cash flow and $9.8B in free cash flow. Calculating with these estimates, Exxon Mobil&#39;s FY 2021 free cash flow could be up to $32.6B. I am assuming a stable operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion of approximately 75%.<blockquote>由于第四季度石油市场定价强劲，我正在更新对埃克森美孚自由现金流的预期。直到最近，我预计该石油公司将在21年第4季度产生$8.2 B的自由现金流，这将使2021财年的自由现金流总额达到约$31.0 B。第三季度，埃克森美孚的运营现金流环比增长25%，自由现金流环比增长30%。第四季度，石油价格继续飙升，这表明埃克森美孚下个月提交财报时，运营现金流和自由现金流都将再次走高。由于21年第4季度产品价格持续回升，我预计埃克森美孚将产生$13.0 B的运营现金流和$9.8 B的自由现金流。根据这些估计计算，埃克森美孚2021财年的自由现金流可能高达$32.6 B。我假设运营现金流与自由现金流的稳定转换约为75%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa7217e1e02128610ab6812a7760db77\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>For FY 2022, I estimate that Exxon Mobil could generate between $35B and $40B in free cash flow, assuming that end-market prices remain above $80 per barrel. Based off of FY 2022 free cash flow estimates, shares of Exxon Mobil have an 8 X-9 X P-FCF ratio.<blockquote>对于2022财年，我估计埃克森美孚可以产生35B至40B美元的自由现金流，假设终端市场价格保持在每桶80美元以上。根据2022财年自由现金流预测，埃克森美孚股票的P-FCF比率为8 X-9 X。</blockquote>Fourth-quarter expectations<blockquote>第四季度预期</blockquote>Expectations are for Exxon Mobil to deliver EPS of $1.94 and revenues of $85B for the fourth-quarter. I believe Exxon Mobil will submit EPS that will be materially better than the one expected. Exxon Mobil&#39;s Q4&#39;21 EPS was revised upwards 15 times in the last 90 days.<blockquote>预计埃克森美孚第四季度每股收益为1.94美元，营收为85B美元。我相信埃克森美孚提交的每股收益将大大好于预期。埃克森美孚21年第4季度每股收益在过去90天内上调了15次。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e301b4ae01a82629877d9e610260111\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risks with Exxon Mobil<blockquote>埃克森美孚的风险</blockquote>Exxon Mobil&#39;s potential to grow earnings and free cash flow depends on market demand for petroleum products and pricing. The more demand for petroleum products exists, the more money Exxon Mobil is going to make on the back-end. Market factors have driven petroleum prices to negative $37 per-barrel in 2020, at the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic, but the market is in a much better constitution today than two years ago. Softening pricing in end-markets and falling demand for petroleum products indicate potential for a significant correction in Exxon Mobil&#39;s earnings and free cash flow.<blockquote>埃克森美孚增长盈利和自由现金流的潜力取决于市场对石油产品的需求和定价。对石油产品的需求越多，埃克森美孚在后端赚的钱就越多。2020年冠状病毒大流行爆发时，市场因素已将油价推至每桶负37美元，但今天的市场状况比两年前好得多。终端市场定价疲软和石油产品需求下降表明埃克森美孚的盈利和自由现金流可能会大幅调整。</blockquote>Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote>Exxon Mobil is set to fly past estimates for the fourth-quarter in February, chiefly because of strengthening market pricing for petroleum products in the October to December period. For that reason, I believe Exxon Mobil is going to submit an earnings card that will be much better than expected.<blockquote>埃克森美孚预计2月份第四季度业绩将超出预期，主要是因为10月至12月期间石油产品市场定价走强。因此，我相信埃克森美孚将提交一份比预期好得多的收益卡。</blockquote>I also took a second look at my free cash flow estimates. I now estimate Exxon Mobil could achieve almost $10B in free cash flow just in the fourth-quarter, with total FY 2021 free cash flow likely to exceed $32B. Based off of a P-FCF ratio of 8 X-9X , shares of Exxon Mobil are still worth buying!<blockquote>我还重新审视了我的自由现金流估计。我现在估计埃克森美孚仅在第四季度就可以实现近100亿美元的自由现金流，2021财年自由现金流总额可能超过320亿美元。根据8 X-9X的P-FCF比率，埃克森美孚的股票仍然值得购买！</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Exxon Mobil: Set To Crush Expectations<blockquote>埃克森美孚：将超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExxon Mobil: Set To Crush Expectations<blockquote>埃克森美孚：将超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-01-24 16:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Exxon Mobil has a good chance of delivering much better than expected earnings on February 1.</li><li>The petroleum firm benefited from product pricing strength in the fourth quarter.</li><li>In FY 2022, a pandemic end and recovering travel could drive business gains.</li><li>I am refreshing my free cash flow estimates for Exxon Mobil’s Q4.</li></ul>Exxon Mobil (XOM) is going to submit its earnings card for the fourth-quarter shortly and the petroleum company is most likely going to sail past estimates due to pricing strength in end-markets and improving free cash flow. While growth stocks are currently selling off, deep value and dividend stocks like Exxon Mobil have potential to build upon recent gains!<blockquote><ul><li>埃克森美孚很有可能在2月1日实现远好于预期的盈利。</li><li>该石油公司受益于第四季度产品定价的强势。</li><li>2022财年，疫情结束和旅行复苏可能会推动业务增长。</li><li>我正在更新对埃克森美孚第四季度自由现金流的预测。</li></ul>埃克森美孚(XOM)将很快提交第四季度收益卡，由于终端市场的定价优势和自由现金流的改善，该石油公司的业绩很可能会超出预期。虽然成长型股票目前正在抛售，但像埃克森美孚这样的深度价值和股息股票有潜力在近期上涨的基础上再接再厉！</blockquote>FY 2022 should see a continual market recovery and a restart of tourism industries<blockquote>2022财年市场将持续复苏，旅游业将重启</blockquote>The COVID-19 pandemic shattered Exxon Mobil&#39;s production business, but the energy firm is making a strong comeback due to a pandemic that is waning and higher market prices for petroleum that are all but set to improve earnings and free cash flow in the foreseeable future.<blockquote>COVID-19大流行摧毁了埃克森美孚的生产业务，但由于大流行的减弱和石油市场价格上涨，这家能源公司正在强劲复苏，在可预见的未来几乎将改善盈利和自由现金流。</blockquote>2021 was a recovery year for Exxon Mobil in which the firm restructured its business and repaid debt. This year, 2022, could see Exxon Mobil return to an expansionist business strategy which could be supported by continual pricing strength in end-markets and growing petroleum demand, especially from sectors that are involved in the tourism industry. I believe this because the most recent Omicron variant is not as deadly as initially feared and multiple countries could be on the brink of relaxing Coronavirus restrictions. The U.K. has said that it is going to lift all Coronavirus restrictions shortly, and there is evidence that the Omicron wave is past its peak in the U.S., too.<blockquote>2021年是埃克森美孚的复苏之年，该公司重组了业务并偿还了债务。今年，即2022年，埃克森美孚可能会回归扩张主义业务战略，这可能会得到终端市场持续的定价优势和不断增长的石油需求（尤其是旅游业相关行业）的支持。我相信这一点，因为最新的奥密克戎变种并不像最初担心的那样致命，而且多个国家可能即将放松冠状病毒限制。英国表示将很快取消所有冠状病毒限制，有证据表明美国的奥密克戎浪潮也已经过了顶峰。</blockquote>What this means is that petroleum demand could soar in 2022 as the world moves past COVID-19, and travel and hospitality industries continue on their recovery path. Prices for petroleum have recovered all throughout 2021 and are now near 1-year highs of around $85. The recovery in product pricing materially supports Exxon Mobil&#39;s free cash flow growth.<blockquote>这意味着，随着世界摆脱COVID-19，旅游和酒店业继续走在复苏道路上，石油需求可能会在2022年飙升。石油价格在2021年全年都有所回升，目前接近85美元左右的一年高点。产品定价的复苏极大地支持了埃克森美孚的自由现金流增长。</blockquote>Free cash flow recovery and refreshed estimates for Q4<blockquote>自由现金流复苏和第四季度更新预测</blockquote>Because of the strong pricing in petroleum markets in the fourth-quarter, I am refreshing my estimates for Exxon Mobil&#39;s free cash flow. Until recently, I expected the petroleum firm to generate $8.2B in Q4&#39;21 free cash flow which would bring total FY 2021 free cash flow to approximately $31.0B. In the third-quarter, Exxon Mobil saw a 25% increase in operating cash flow and a 30% increase in free cash flow, quarter over quarter. In the fourth-quarter, petroleum prices continued to soar, suggesting that both operating and free cash flow will be higher yet again when Exxon Mobil submits its earnings card next month. Because of the continual recovery in product prices in Q4&#39;21, I expect Exxon Mobil to generate $13.0B in operating cash flow and $9.8B in free cash flow. Calculating with these estimates, Exxon Mobil&#39;s FY 2021 free cash flow could be up to $32.6B. I am assuming a stable operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion of approximately 75%.<blockquote>由于第四季度石油市场定价强劲，我正在更新对埃克森美孚自由现金流的预期。直到最近，我预计该石油公司将在21年第4季度产生$8.2 B的自由现金流，这将使2021财年的自由现金流总额达到约$31.0 B。第三季度，埃克森美孚的运营现金流环比增长25%，自由现金流环比增长30%。第四季度，石油价格继续飙升，这表明埃克森美孚下个月提交财报时，运营现金流和自由现金流都将再次走高。由于21年第4季度产品价格持续回升，我预计埃克森美孚将产生$13.0 B的运营现金流和$9.8 B的自由现金流。根据这些估计计算，埃克森美孚2021财年的自由现金流可能高达$32.6 B。我假设运营现金流与自由现金流的稳定转换约为75%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa7217e1e02128610ab6812a7760db77\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>For FY 2022, I estimate that Exxon Mobil could generate between $35B and $40B in free cash flow, assuming that end-market prices remain above $80 per barrel. Based off of FY 2022 free cash flow estimates, shares of Exxon Mobil have an 8 X-9 X P-FCF ratio.<blockquote>对于2022财年，我估计埃克森美孚可以产生35B至40B美元的自由现金流，假设终端市场价格保持在每桶80美元以上。根据2022财年自由现金流预测，埃克森美孚股票的P-FCF比率为8 X-9 X。</blockquote>Fourth-quarter expectations<blockquote>第四季度预期</blockquote>Expectations are for Exxon Mobil to deliver EPS of $1.94 and revenues of $85B for the fourth-quarter. I believe Exxon Mobil will submit EPS that will be materially better than the one expected. Exxon Mobil&#39;s Q4&#39;21 EPS was revised upwards 15 times in the last 90 days.<blockquote>预计埃克森美孚第四季度每股收益为1.94美元，营收为85B美元。我相信埃克森美孚提交的每股收益将大大好于预期。埃克森美孚21年第4季度每股收益在过去90天内上调了15次。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e301b4ae01a82629877d9e610260111\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risks with Exxon Mobil<blockquote>埃克森美孚的风险</blockquote>Exxon Mobil&#39;s potential to grow earnings and free cash flow depends on market demand for petroleum products and pricing. The more demand for petroleum products exists, the more money Exxon Mobil is going to make on the back-end. Market factors have driven petroleum prices to negative $37 per-barrel in 2020, at the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic, but the market is in a much better constitution today than two years ago. Softening pricing in end-markets and falling demand for petroleum products indicate potential for a significant correction in Exxon Mobil&#39;s earnings and free cash flow.<blockquote>埃克森美孚增长盈利和自由现金流的潜力取决于市场对石油产品的需求和定价。对石油产品的需求越多，埃克森美孚在后端赚的钱就越多。2020年冠状病毒大流行爆发时，市场因素已将油价推至每桶负37美元，但今天的市场状况比两年前好得多。终端市场定价疲软和石油产品需求下降表明埃克森美孚的盈利和自由现金流可能会大幅调整。</blockquote>Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote>Exxon Mobil is set to fly past estimates for the fourth-quarter in February, chiefly because of strengthening market pricing for petroleum products in the October to December period. For that reason, I believe Exxon Mobil is going to submit an earnings card that will be much better than expected.<blockquote>埃克森美孚预计2月份第四季度业绩将超出预期，主要是因为10月至12月期间石油产品市场定价走强。因此，我相信埃克森美孚将提交一份比预期好得多的收益卡。</blockquote>I also took a second look at my free cash flow estimates. I now estimate Exxon Mobil could achieve almost $10B in free cash flow just in the fourth-quarter, with total FY 2021 free cash flow likely to exceed $32B. Based off of a P-FCF ratio of 8 X-9X , shares of Exxon Mobil are still worth buying!<blockquote>我还重新审视了我的自由现金流估计。我现在估计埃克森美孚仅在第四季度就可以实现近100亿美元的自由现金流，2021财年自由现金流总额可能超过320亿美元。根据8 X-9X的P-FCF比率，埃克森美孚的股票仍然值得购买！</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481022-exxon-mobil-xom-earnings-set-to-crush-expectations\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481022-exxon-mobil-xom-earnings-set-to-crush-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102851143","content_text":"SummaryExxon Mobil has a good chance of delivering much better than expected earnings on February 1.The petroleum firm benefited from product pricing strength in the fourth quarter.In FY 2022, a pandemic end and recovering travel could drive business gains.I am refreshing my free cash flow estimates for Exxon Mobil’s Q4.Exxon Mobil (XOM) is going to submit its earnings card for the fourth-quarter shortly and the petroleum company is most likely going to sail past estimates due to pricing strength in end-markets and improving free cash flow. While growth stocks are currently selling off, deep value and dividend stocks like Exxon Mobil have potential to build upon recent gains!FY 2022 should see a continual market recovery and a restart of tourism industriesThe COVID-19 pandemic shattered Exxon Mobil's production business, but the energy firm is making a strong comeback due to a pandemic that is waning and higher market prices for petroleum that are all but set to improve earnings and free cash flow in the foreseeable future.2021 was a recovery year for Exxon Mobil in which the firm restructured its business and repaid debt. This year, 2022, could see Exxon Mobil return to an expansionist business strategy which could be supported by continual pricing strength in end-markets and growing petroleum demand, especially from sectors that are involved in the tourism industry. I believe this because the most recent Omicron variant is not as deadly as initially feared and multiple countries could be on the brink of relaxing Coronavirus restrictions. The U.K. has said that it is going to lift all Coronavirus restrictions shortly, and there is evidence that the Omicron wave is past its peak in the U.S., too.What this means is that petroleum demand could soar in 2022 as the world moves past COVID-19, and travel and hospitality industries continue on their recovery path. Prices for petroleum have recovered all throughout 2021 and are now near 1-year highs of around $85. The recovery in product pricing materially supports Exxon Mobil's free cash flow growth.Free cash flow recovery and refreshed estimates for Q4Because of the strong pricing in petroleum markets in the fourth-quarter, I am refreshing my estimates for Exxon Mobil's free cash flow. Until recently, I expected the petroleum firm to generate $8.2B in Q4'21 free cash flow which would bring total FY 2021 free cash flow to approximately $31.0B. In the third-quarter, Exxon Mobil saw a 25% increase in operating cash flow and a 30% increase in free cash flow, quarter over quarter. In the fourth-quarter, petroleum prices continued to soar, suggesting that both operating and free cash flow will be higher yet again when Exxon Mobil submits its earnings card next month. Because of the continual recovery in product prices in Q4'21, I expect Exxon Mobil to generate $13.0B in operating cash flow and $9.8B in free cash flow. Calculating with these estimates, Exxon Mobil's FY 2021 free cash flow could be up to $32.6B. I am assuming a stable operating-cash-flow-to-free-cash-flow conversion of approximately 75%.For FY 2022, I estimate that Exxon Mobil could generate between $35B and $40B in free cash flow, assuming that end-market prices remain above $80 per barrel. Based off of FY 2022 free cash flow estimates, shares of Exxon Mobil have an 8 X-9 X P-FCF ratio.Fourth-quarter expectationsExpectations are for Exxon Mobil to deliver EPS of $1.94 and revenues of $85B for the fourth-quarter. I believe Exxon Mobil will submit EPS that will be materially better than the one expected. Exxon Mobil's Q4'21 EPS was revised upwards 15 times in the last 90 days.Risks with Exxon MobilExxon Mobil's potential to grow earnings and free cash flow depends on market demand for petroleum products and pricing. The more demand for petroleum products exists, the more money Exxon Mobil is going to make on the back-end. Market factors have driven petroleum prices to negative $37 per-barrel in 2020, at the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic, but the market is in a much better constitution today than two years ago. Softening pricing in end-markets and falling demand for petroleum products indicate potential for a significant correction in Exxon Mobil's earnings and free cash flow.Final thoughtsExxon Mobil is set to fly past estimates for the fourth-quarter in February, chiefly because of strengthening market pricing for petroleum products in the October to December period. For that reason, I believe Exxon Mobil is going to submit an earnings card that will be much better than expected.I also took a second look at my free cash flow estimates. I now estimate Exxon Mobil could achieve almost $10B in free cash flow just in the fourth-quarter, with total FY 2021 free cash flow likely to exceed $32B. Based off of a P-FCF ratio of 8 X-9X , shares of Exxon Mobil are still worth buying!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1818,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}