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2022-03-19

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美银复盘1970s：大通胀时代下的资产轮动

美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，美股反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦？1970s大通胀时代下的资产轮动或许能够提供借鉴。

美银复盘1970s：大通胀时代下的资产轮动

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），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，<b>真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。</b></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></blockquote><p>Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。</p><p>以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。</p><p><b>在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。</p><p>对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：</p><blockquote>最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”</blockquote><blockquote>最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值</blockquote><blockquote>最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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美银复盘1970s：大通胀时代下的资产轮动

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