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Bptan1973
2022-02-24

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Russia Attack on Ukraine May Nudge Fed to Less Aggressive Move Next Month<blockquote>俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击可能促使美联储下个月采取不那么激进的举措</blockquote>

Russia’s attack on Ukraine is fueling geopolitical risk that may push the Federal Reserve away from

Russia Attack on Ukraine May Nudge Fed to Less Aggressive Move Next Month<blockquote>俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击可能促使美联储下个月采取不那么激进的举措</blockquote>

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Earlier in February, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullardoutright said he would support a double interest rate hike (of 0.50%) in the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March.<blockquote>美国的高通胀引发了人们的猜测，即美联储可能希望更快地采取行动实现短期利率正常化，自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直将短期利率维持在接近于零的水平。2月初，圣路易斯联储主席Jim Bullardoutright表示，他将支持在美联储3月中旬的下次会议上加息两次（0.50%）。</blockquote>The Fed has not raised interest rates by more than 0.25% in a single meeting since 2000.<blockquote>自2000年以来，美联储从未在一次会议上加息超过0.25%。</blockquote>But economists say the evolving situation in Ukraine introduces a whole new set of uncertainties to a global recovery still facing the challenge of a pandemic. Disruptions to Russian oil and gas supply are pushing energy prices higher, and Ukraine’s importance to the European economy is already raising questions about the impact to real income and growth across the entire continent.<blockquote>但经济学家表示，乌克兰不断变化的局势给仍面临疫情挑战的全球复苏带来了一系列全新的不确定性。俄罗斯石油和天然气供应中断正在推高能源价格，乌克兰对欧洲经济的重要性已经引发了人们对整个欧洲大陆实际收入和增长影响的质疑。</blockquote>With the picture unclear, Fed watchers say policymakers stateside are likely to hold back from a double bump in rates, as Fed officials defer to options less likely to rattle the already sensitive financial markets.<blockquote>美联储观察人士表示，由于形势尚不明朗，美国国内政策制定者可能会避免二次加息，因为美联储官员会选择不太可能扰乱本已敏感的金融市场的选择。</blockquote>“[W]e do not expect geopolitical risk to stop the FOMC from hiking steadily by 25 [basis points] at its upcoming meetings, though we do think that geopolitical uncertainty further lowers the odds of a 50bp hike in March,” Goldman Sachs Economics ResearchwroteWednesday night.<blockquote>高盛表示：“我们预计地缘政治风险不会阻止FOMC在即将举行的会议上稳步加息25个基点，尽管我们确实认为地缘政治不确定性进一步降低了3月份加息50个基点的可能性。”周三晚上。</blockquote>Evercore ISI similarly said the risks from Ukraine are likely to steer the Fed away from a double hike. But analysts noted that the shock of higher energy prices as a result of the disruption to Russian oil and gas supply may exacerbate the ongoing U.S. challenge of high inflation.<blockquote>Evercore ISI同样表示，来自乌克兰的风险可能会引导美联储避免二次加息。但分析师指出，俄罗斯石油和天然气供应中断导致能源价格上涨的冲击可能会加剧美国持续面临的高通胀挑战。</blockquote>“At a minimum, the further boost to headline inflation from higher energy costs will make the central banks additionally sensitive to any hints of second round effects in the coming months — potentially in the U.S. for instance resulting in a 50bp move some time after March,” Evercore ISI said Thursday.<blockquote>“至少，能源成本上升对整体通胀的进一步推高将使各国央行对未来几个月第二轮影响的任何迹象更加敏感——例如，美国可能会在3月份之后的某个时候导致50个基点的波动，”Evercore ISI周四表示。</blockquote>Daly said Wednesday that she currently expects to support a 0.25% move in March, although all policy options are &#34;on the table&#34; with additional readings on inflation and employment expected before the next meeting on March 16.<blockquote>戴利周三表示，她目前预计将支持3月份加息0.25%，尽管所有政策选项都“摆在桌面上”，预计在3月16日下次会议之前将公布通胀和就业数据。</blockquote>Fed funds futures, the CME Group’s betting market for Fed moves on interest rates, were pricing in an 87% chance of a 0.25% move in March instead of 0.50%.<blockquote>芝商所(CME Group)押注美联储利率变动的市场联邦基金期货定价为3月份0.25%变动的可能性为87%，而不是0.50%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia Attack on Ukraine May Nudge Fed to Less Aggressive Move Next Month<blockquote>俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击可能促使美联储下个月采取不那么激进的举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nYahoo Finance2022-02-24 22:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Russia’s attack on Ukraine is fueling geopolitical risk that may push the Federal Reserve away from a more aggressive interest rate increase in March.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>俄罗斯对乌克兰的袭击正在加剧地缘政治风险，这可能会推动美联储在3月份放弃更激进的加息。</body></html></blockquote>Fed officials, who are still eager to begin the process of paring back pandemic-era easy money policies, say they are monitoring any spillover effects of the conflict onto U.S. economic activity.<blockquote>美联储官员仍渴望开始削减大流行时期的宽松货币政策，他们表示，他们正在监测冲突对美国经济活动的任何溢出效应。</blockquote>“These create a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty, as we know, is a demand shock,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told reporters on Feb. 23 — before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the attack on Ukraine. “And how big the demand shock depends on how high the uncertainty is and how long it lasts.”<blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利(Mary Daly)2月23日在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)宣布袭击乌克兰之前对记者表示：“这些造成了很多不确定性，正如我们所知，不确定性是需求冲击。”“而需求冲击有多大取决于不确定性有多高以及持续多长时间。”</blockquote>High inflation in the U.S. had stoked speculation that the Fed may want to move quicker on normalizing short-term interest rates, which the central bank had been holding at near zero since the pandemic began. Earlier in February, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullardoutright said he would support a double interest rate hike (of 0.50%) in the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March.<blockquote>美国的高通胀引发了人们的猜测，即美联储可能希望更快地采取行动实现短期利率正常化，自疫情爆发以来，美联储一直将短期利率维持在接近于零的水平。2月初，圣路易斯联储主席Jim Bullardoutright表示，他将支持在美联储3月中旬的下次会议上加息两次（0.50%）。</blockquote>The Fed has not raised interest rates by more than 0.25% in a single meeting since 2000.<blockquote>自2000年以来，美联储从未在一次会议上加息超过0.25%。</blockquote>But economists say the evolving situation in Ukraine introduces a whole new set of uncertainties to a global recovery still facing the challenge of a pandemic. Disruptions to Russian oil and gas supply are pushing energy prices higher, and Ukraine’s importance to the European economy is already raising questions about the impact to real income and growth across the entire continent.<blockquote>但经济学家表示，乌克兰不断变化的局势给仍面临疫情挑战的全球复苏带来了一系列全新的不确定性。俄罗斯石油和天然气供应中断正在推高能源价格，乌克兰对欧洲经济的重要性已经引发了人们对整个欧洲大陆实际收入和增长影响的质疑。</blockquote>With the picture unclear, Fed watchers say policymakers stateside are likely to hold back from a double bump in rates, as Fed officials defer to options less likely to rattle the already sensitive financial markets.<blockquote>美联储观察人士表示，由于形势尚不明朗，美国国内政策制定者可能会避免二次加息，因为美联储官员会选择不太可能扰乱本已敏感的金融市场的选择。</blockquote>“[W]e do not expect geopolitical risk to stop the FOMC from hiking steadily by 25 [basis points] at its upcoming meetings, though we do think that geopolitical uncertainty further lowers the odds of a 50bp hike in March,” Goldman Sachs Economics ResearchwroteWednesday night.<blockquote>高盛表示：“我们预计地缘政治风险不会阻止FOMC在即将举行的会议上稳步加息25个基点，尽管我们确实认为地缘政治不确定性进一步降低了3月份加息50个基点的可能性。”周三晚上。</blockquote>Evercore ISI similarly said the risks from Ukraine are likely to steer the Fed away from a double hike. But analysts noted that the shock of higher energy prices as a result of the disruption to Russian oil and gas supply may exacerbate the ongoing U.S. challenge of high inflation.<blockquote>Evercore ISI同样表示，来自乌克兰的风险可能会引导美联储避免二次加息。但分析师指出，俄罗斯石油和天然气供应中断导致能源价格上涨的冲击可能会加剧美国持续面临的高通胀挑战。</blockquote>“At a minimum, the further boost to headline inflation from higher energy costs will make the central banks additionally sensitive to any hints of second round effects in the coming months — potentially in the U.S. for instance resulting in a 50bp move some time after March,” Evercore ISI said Thursday.<blockquote>“至少，能源成本上升对整体通胀的进一步推高将使各国央行对未来几个月第二轮影响的任何迹象更加敏感——例如，美国可能会在3月份之后的某个时候导致50个基点的波动，”Evercore ISI周四表示。</blockquote>Daly said Wednesday that she currently expects to support a 0.25% move in March, although all policy options are &#34;on the table&#34; with additional readings on inflation and employment expected before the next meeting on March 16.<blockquote>戴利周三表示，她目前预计将支持3月份加息0.25%，尽管所有政策选项都“摆在桌面上”，预计在3月16日下次会议之前将公布通胀和就业数据。</blockquote>Fed funds futures, the CME Group’s betting market for Fed moves on interest rates, were pricing in an 87% chance of a 0.25% move in March instead of 0.50%.<blockquote>芝商所(CME Group)押注美联储利率变动的市场联邦基金期货定价为3月份0.25%变动的可能性为87%，而不是0.50%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-attack-on-ukraine-may-nudge-fed-to-less-aggressive-move-next-month-135505187.html\">Yahoo Finance</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-attack-on-ukraine-may-nudge-fed-to-less-aggressive-move-next-month-135505187.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182224280","content_text":"Russia’s attack on Ukraine is fueling geopolitical risk that may push the Federal Reserve away from a more aggressive interest rate increase in March.Fed officials, who are still eager to begin the process of paring back pandemic-era easy money policies, say they are monitoring any spillover effects of the conflict onto U.S. economic activity.“These create a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty, as we know, is a demand shock,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told reporters on Feb. 23 — before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the attack on Ukraine. “And how big the demand shock depends on how high the uncertainty is and how long it lasts.”High inflation in the U.S. had stoked speculation that the Fed may want to move quicker on normalizing short-term interest rates, which the central bank had been holding at near zero since the pandemic began. Earlier in February, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullardoutright said he would support a double interest rate hike (of 0.50%) in the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March.The Fed has not raised interest rates by more than 0.25% in a single meeting since 2000.But economists say the evolving situation in Ukraine introduces a whole new set of uncertainties to a global recovery still facing the challenge of a pandemic. Disruptions to Russian oil and gas supply are pushing energy prices higher, and Ukraine’s importance to the European economy is already raising questions about the impact to real income and growth across the entire continent.With the picture unclear, Fed watchers say policymakers stateside are likely to hold back from a double bump in rates, as Fed officials defer to options less likely to rattle the already sensitive financial markets.“[W]e do not expect geopolitical risk to stop the FOMC from hiking steadily by 25 [basis points] at its upcoming meetings, though we do think that geopolitical uncertainty further lowers the odds of a 50bp hike in March,” Goldman Sachs Economics ResearchwroteWednesday night.Evercore ISI similarly said the risks from Ukraine are likely to steer the Fed away from a double hike. But analysts noted that the shock of higher energy prices as a result of the disruption to Russian oil and gas supply may exacerbate the ongoing U.S. challenge of high inflation.“At a minimum, the further boost to headline inflation from higher energy costs will make the central banks additionally sensitive to any hints of second round effects in the coming months — potentially in the U.S. for instance resulting in a 50bp move some time after March,” Evercore ISI said Thursday.Daly said Wednesday that she currently expects to support a 0.25% move in March, although all policy options are \"on the table\" with additional readings on inflation and employment expected before the next meeting on March 16.Fed funds futures, the CME Group’s betting market for Fed moves on interest rates, were pricing in an 87% chance of a 0.25% move in March instead of 0.50%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}