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2022-02-21

Will Fed rate hikes crush the stock market? Here's why speed matters<blockquote>美联储加息会压垮股市吗？这就是为什么速度很重要</blockquote>

With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognostic

Will Fed rate hikes crush the stock market? Here's why speed matters<blockquote>美联储加息会压垮股市吗？这就是为什么速度很重要</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":638244925,"tweetId":"638244925","gmtCreate":1645408094593,"gmtModify":1645408094810,"author":{"id":3581673258710248,"idStr":"3581673258710248","authorId":3581673258710248,"authorIdStr":"3581673258710248","name":"Jawslea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8333191726f8892d8ed5ce88d0ca4b94","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638244925","repostId":2212671091,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212671091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645319101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2212671091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-20 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Fed rate hikes crush the stock market? Here's why speed matters<blockquote>美联储加息会压垮股市吗？这就是为什么速度很重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212671091","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognostic","content":"<html><head></head><body>With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognosticators have been quick to reassure investors that history shows stocks tend to do just fine as policy makers embark on a monetary policy tightening cycle.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>由于美联储几乎肯定会在3月份开始加息，市场预测人士很快向投资者保证，历史表明，随着政策制定者开始货币政策紧缩周期，股市往往表现良好。</body></html></blockquote>But like most things related to markets, there&#39;s more to the story.<blockquote>但就像大多数与市场相关的事情一样，故事还有更多。</blockquote>It turns out that when the Fed moves fast to hike rates, as it has signaled it&#39;s prepared to do in a scramble to rein in U.S. inflation running at its hottest since the early 1980s, the stock market&#39;s short-term performance hasn&#39;t been quite as stellar, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>事实证明，当美联储迅速加息时，正如它已经表示准备采取行动，以控制美国自20世纪80年代初以来最热的通胀，股市的短期表现并不那么出色Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师埃德·克里索尔德(Ed Clissold)表示，同样出色。</blockquote>&#34;It&#39;s intuitive that the Fed&#39;s job when they start to raise rates is to take the punch bowl away before the party gets going too much,&#34; he said, in a Thursday interview. So it shouldn&#39;t be a surprise that &#34;the quicker they&#39;ve been, the more markets have taken note.&#34;<blockquote>他在周四接受采访时表示：“直觉上，当美联储开始加息时，他们的工作就是在聚会变得太过分之前把潘趣酒碗拿走。”因此，“他们走得越快，市场就越注意到”也就不足为奇了。</blockquote>Clissold and Thanh Nguyen, NDR&#39;s senior quantitative analyst, detailed the difference between market performance in &#34;fast&#34; versus &#34;slow&#34; cycles in a Feb. 9 note. They found that in the year following the initial rate increase, the S&amp;P 500 rose an average 10.5% in slow cycles versus an average fall of 2.7% in fast cycles (see chart below).<blockquote>Clissold和NDR高级定量分析师Thanh Nguyen在2月9日的一份报告中详细介绍了“快”周期和“慢”周期中市场表现的差异。他们发现，在首次加息后的一年里，标普500在慢速周期中平均上涨10.5%，而在快速周期中平均下跌2.7%（见下图）。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b209a13e185df7837bbe56e3518647ca\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Ned Davis Research<blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究</blockquote>The median gain during the first year of a slow cycle was 13.4% versus 2.4% for fast cycles. The median maximum drawdown in slow cycles was 11%, compared with 12.1% for fast cycles.<blockquote>慢速周期第一年的中值增益为13.4%，而快速周期为2.4%。慢速周期的中位最大回撤为11%，而快速周期为12.1%。</blockquote>Overall, the &#34;return and drawdown statistics of a fast cycle are consistent with choppy conditions, but not necessarily a major bear market,&#34; Clissold and Nguyen wrote.<blockquote>总体而言，“快速周期的回报和回撤统计数据与波动的情况一致，但不一定是主要的熊市，”Clissold和Nguyen写道。</blockquote>So how fast is fast? It&#39;s a bit subjective, Clissold told MarketWatch, but past cycles have shaken out relatively clearly between the two categories. NDR expects four or more rate increases over the Fed&#39;s seven remaining policy meetings in 2022 alongside the start of a reduction in the size of the central bank&#39;s balance sheet -- a pace that would put the cycle clearly in the &#34;fast&#34; category.<blockquote>那么多快才算快呢？克里索尔德告诉MarketWatch，这有点主观，但过去的周期在这两个类别之间已经相对明显地发生了变化。NDR预计，美联储将在2022年剩余的七次政策会议上加息四次或更多次，同时开始缩减央行资产负债表规模——这一步伐将使周期明显属于“快速”类别。</blockquote>Some Fed watchers see a faster pace than that, and fed-funds futures traders have increasingly priced in the prospect of policy makers kicking off the cycle with a half-point rate increase rather than the typical quarter-point, or 25 basis point, move.<blockquote>一些美联储观察人士认为速度比这更快，联邦基金期货交易员越来越多地考虑到政策制定者以加息半个基点而不是典型的四分之一个基点或25个基点来启动周期的前景。</blockquote>The market&#39;s pricing of an aggressive rate-hike scenario appears reasonable given the inflation picture, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，考虑到通胀形势，市场对激进加息情景的定价似乎是合理的。</blockquote>That said, it&#39;s worth remembering that both the market and the Fed itself, via the central bank&#39;s so-called dot-plot forecast for benchmark interest rates, have been relatively poor at predicting the actual rate outcome, she noted, in a phone interview.<blockquote>尽管如此，值得记住的是，市场和美联储本身通过央行所谓的基准利率点阵图预测，在预测实际利率结果方面相对较差，她在电话采访中指出。</blockquote>That isn&#39;t a criticism, she said. Rather it merely reflects just how difficult it is to make accurate rate predictions. New York Life Investments, for its part, looks for four quarter-point rate increases in 2022, possibly frontloaded.<blockquote>她说，这不是批评。相反，它只是反映了做出准确的利率预测是多么困难。纽约人寿投资(New York Life Investments)则预计2022年加息四次25个基点，可能是提前加息。</blockquote>The point, she said, is that there has already been substantial volatility around rate expectations and, moreover, that&#39;s likely to continue as data comes in. That could make for more volatility in the rates market and the yield curve, which has flattened significantly since the beginning of the year as rates at the short end have risen sharply in anticipation of Fed tightening while longer-dated yields have risen less sharply.<blockquote>她表示，关键是利率预期已经出现大幅波动，而且随着数据的公布，这种情况可能会持续下去。这可能会导致利率市场和收益率曲线更加波动，自今年年初以来，由于短期利率因美联储紧缩政策的预期而大幅上升，而长期收益率上升幅度较小，收益率曲线已显着趋平。</blockquote>The yield curve is viewed as an important indicator in itself. An inversion of the curve, particularly when the 2-year or shorter-dated yields rise above the 10-year yield, has been a reliable recession indicator.<blockquote>收益率曲线本身被视为一个重要指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或更短期限的收益率升至10年期收益率之上时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。</blockquote>That hasn&#39;t happened yet, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect fears aggressive Fed tightening could throw the economy into recession, some analysts say. Others offer a more benign interpretation, with the flattening reflecting expectations a quick response by the Fed will help wrestle down inflation without requiring rates to rise to eye-watering levels.<blockquote>一些分析师表示，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线的迅速变平可能反映出人们担心美联储激进的紧缩政策可能会使经济陷入衰退。其他人则提供了更良性的解释，这种趋平反映了人们的预期，即美联储的快速反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需利率升至令人瞠目结舌的水平。</blockquote>On the surface, the latter scenario would seem to favor stocks of companies tied to the economic cycle, particularly those that are able to pass on rising costs and navigate rising capital costs, Goodwin said. In asset class terms, that would tend to favor value stocks over growth stocks, she said.<blockquote>古德温表示，从表面上看，后一种情况似乎有利于与经济周期相关的公司的股票，特别是那些能够转嫁成本上升和应对资本成本上升的公司。她表示，就资产类别而言，价值股往往比成长股更受青睐。</blockquote>But it&#39;s not that simple. &#34;It really depends on the company and that their capital structure and competitiveness in this type of environment,&#34; she said, noting that some technology stocks have fared very well in an environment that seems to no longer favor growth, while others have suffered.<blockquote>但事情没那么简单。她表示：“这实际上取决于公司及其资本结构和在此类环境中的竞争力。”她指出，一些科技股在似乎不再有利于增长的环境中表现良好，而另一些科技股则遭受了损失。</blockquote>That makes for a more &#34;company by company&#34; picture that favors active managers, Goodwin said.<blockquote>古德温表示，这使得情况更加“逐家公司”，有利于主动型基金经理。</blockquote>It&#39;s all part of a &#34;midcycle&#34; environment. Economic growth remains healthy, which is constructive for stocks, but growth is only likely to slow from here, she said, and that makes &#34;earnings and earnings quality particularly important.&#34;<blockquote>这都是“中期”环境的一部分。她表示，经济增长保持健康，这对股市具有建设性，但增长只可能从现在开始放缓，这使得“盈利和盈利质量尤为重要”。</blockquote>That will change when there are clearer signs the economy is simply decelerating, which is when more broad level asset class considerations play a bigger role in determining outcomes for investors, she said.<blockquote>她表示，当有更明确的迹象表明经济正在减速时，这种情况将会改变，此时更广泛的资产类别考虑因素在决定投资者的结果方面发挥更大的作用。</blockquote>U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Meanwhile, investors, like Fed officials, will remain glued to inflation data, while keeping watch on developments around Ukraine as U.S. officials warn of the threat of a Russian invasion.<blockquote>美国市场将于周一因总统日假期休市。与此同时，投资者和美联储官员一样，将继续关注通胀数据，同时密切关注乌克兰周边的事态发展，因为美国官员警告俄罗斯入侵的威胁。</blockquote>Ukraine-related jitters were blamed in part for the stock market&#39;s stumble over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.9%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2%.<blockquote>与乌克兰相关的紧张情绪是过去一周股市下跌的部分原因，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.9%，标普500下跌1.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.2%。</blockquote>Friday will bring the Fed&#39;s favored reading on price pressures with the release of the January personal consumption and expenditures, or PCE, inflation reading. The University of Michigan&#39;s final February take on five-year consumer inflation expectations is also due Friday.<blockquote>周五，随着1月份个人消费和支出（PCE）通胀数据的发布，美联储将公布对价格压力的有利数据。密歇根大学二月份对五年消费者通胀预期的最终评估也将于周五公布。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Fed rate hikes crush the stock market? Here's why speed matters<blockquote>美联储加息会压垮股市吗？这就是为什么速度很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Fed rate hikes crush the stock market? Here's why speed matters<blockquote>美联储加息会压垮股市吗？这就是为什么速度很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-02-20 09:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognosticators have been quick to reassure investors that history shows stocks tend to do just fine as policy makers embark on a monetary policy tightening cycle.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>由于美联储几乎肯定会在3月份开始加息，市场预测人士很快向投资者保证，历史表明，随着政策制定者开始货币政策紧缩周期，股市往往表现良好。</body></html></blockquote>But like most things related to markets, there&#39;s more to the story.<blockquote>但就像大多数与市场相关的事情一样，故事还有更多。</blockquote>It turns out that when the Fed moves fast to hike rates, as it has signaled it&#39;s prepared to do in a scramble to rein in U.S. inflation running at its hottest since the early 1980s, the stock market&#39;s short-term performance hasn&#39;t been quite as stellar, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>事实证明，当美联储迅速加息时，正如它已经表示准备采取行动，以控制美国自20世纪80年代初以来最热的通胀，股市的短期表现并不那么出色Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师埃德·克里索尔德(Ed Clissold)表示，同样出色。</blockquote>&#34;It&#39;s intuitive that the Fed&#39;s job when they start to raise rates is to take the punch bowl away before the party gets going too much,&#34; he said, in a Thursday interview. So it shouldn&#39;t be a surprise that &#34;the quicker they&#39;ve been, the more markets have taken note.&#34;<blockquote>他在周四接受采访时表示：“直觉上，当美联储开始加息时，他们的工作就是在聚会变得太过分之前把潘趣酒碗拿走。”因此，“他们走得越快，市场就越注意到”也就不足为奇了。</blockquote>Clissold and Thanh Nguyen, NDR&#39;s senior quantitative analyst, detailed the difference between market performance in &#34;fast&#34; versus &#34;slow&#34; cycles in a Feb. 9 note. They found that in the year following the initial rate increase, the S&amp;P 500 rose an average 10.5% in slow cycles versus an average fall of 2.7% in fast cycles (see chart below).<blockquote>Clissold和NDR高级定量分析师Thanh Nguyen在2月9日的一份报告中详细介绍了“快”周期和“慢”周期中市场表现的差异。他们发现，在首次加息后的一年里，标普500在慢速周期中平均上涨10.5%，而在快速周期中平均下跌2.7%（见下图）。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b209a13e185df7837bbe56e3518647ca\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Ned Davis Research<blockquote>内德·戴维斯研究</blockquote>The median gain during the first year of a slow cycle was 13.4% versus 2.4% for fast cycles. The median maximum drawdown in slow cycles was 11%, compared with 12.1% for fast cycles.<blockquote>慢速周期第一年的中值增益为13.4%，而快速周期为2.4%。慢速周期的中位最大回撤为11%，而快速周期为12.1%。</blockquote>Overall, the &#34;return and drawdown statistics of a fast cycle are consistent with choppy conditions, but not necessarily a major bear market,&#34; Clissold and Nguyen wrote.<blockquote>总体而言，“快速周期的回报和回撤统计数据与波动的情况一致，但不一定是主要的熊市，”Clissold和Nguyen写道。</blockquote>So how fast is fast? It&#39;s a bit subjective, Clissold told MarketWatch, but past cycles have shaken out relatively clearly between the two categories. NDR expects four or more rate increases over the Fed&#39;s seven remaining policy meetings in 2022 alongside the start of a reduction in the size of the central bank&#39;s balance sheet -- a pace that would put the cycle clearly in the &#34;fast&#34; category.<blockquote>那么多快才算快呢？克里索尔德告诉MarketWatch，这有点主观，但过去的周期在这两个类别之间已经相对明显地发生了变化。NDR预计，美联储将在2022年剩余的七次政策会议上加息四次或更多次，同时开始缩减央行资产负债表规模——这一步伐将使周期明显属于“快速”类别。</blockquote>Some Fed watchers see a faster pace than that, and fed-funds futures traders have increasingly priced in the prospect of policy makers kicking off the cycle with a half-point rate increase rather than the typical quarter-point, or 25 basis point, move.<blockquote>一些美联储观察人士认为速度比这更快，联邦基金期货交易员越来越多地考虑到政策制定者以加息半个基点而不是典型的四分之一个基点或25个基点来启动周期的前景。</blockquote>The market&#39;s pricing of an aggressive rate-hike scenario appears reasonable given the inflation picture, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，考虑到通胀形势，市场对激进加息情景的定价似乎是合理的。</blockquote>That said, it&#39;s worth remembering that both the market and the Fed itself, via the central bank&#39;s so-called dot-plot forecast for benchmark interest rates, have been relatively poor at predicting the actual rate outcome, she noted, in a phone interview.<blockquote>尽管如此，值得记住的是，市场和美联储本身通过央行所谓的基准利率点阵图预测，在预测实际利率结果方面相对较差，她在电话采访中指出。</blockquote>That isn&#39;t a criticism, she said. Rather it merely reflects just how difficult it is to make accurate rate predictions. New York Life Investments, for its part, looks for four quarter-point rate increases in 2022, possibly frontloaded.<blockquote>她说，这不是批评。相反，它只是反映了做出准确的利率预测是多么困难。纽约人寿投资(New York Life Investments)则预计2022年加息四次25个基点，可能是提前加息。</blockquote>The point, she said, is that there has already been substantial volatility around rate expectations and, moreover, that&#39;s likely to continue as data comes in. That could make for more volatility in the rates market and the yield curve, which has flattened significantly since the beginning of the year as rates at the short end have risen sharply in anticipation of Fed tightening while longer-dated yields have risen less sharply.<blockquote>她表示，关键是利率预期已经出现大幅波动，而且随着数据的公布，这种情况可能会持续下去。这可能会导致利率市场和收益率曲线更加波动，自今年年初以来，由于短期利率因美联储紧缩政策的预期而大幅上升，而长期收益率上升幅度较小，收益率曲线已显着趋平。</blockquote>The yield curve is viewed as an important indicator in itself. An inversion of the curve, particularly when the 2-year or shorter-dated yields rise above the 10-year yield, has been a reliable recession indicator.<blockquote>收益率曲线本身被视为一个重要指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或更短期限的收益率升至10年期收益率之上时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。</blockquote>That hasn&#39;t happened yet, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect fears aggressive Fed tightening could throw the economy into recession, some analysts say. Others offer a more benign interpretation, with the flattening reflecting expectations a quick response by the Fed will help wrestle down inflation without requiring rates to rise to eye-watering levels.<blockquote>一些分析师表示，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线的迅速变平可能反映出人们担心美联储激进的紧缩政策可能会使经济陷入衰退。其他人则提供了更良性的解释，这种趋平反映了人们的预期，即美联储的快速反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需利率升至令人瞠目结舌的水平。</blockquote>On the surface, the latter scenario would seem to favor stocks of companies tied to the economic cycle, particularly those that are able to pass on rising costs and navigate rising capital costs, Goodwin said. In asset class terms, that would tend to favor value stocks over growth stocks, she said.<blockquote>古德温表示，从表面上看，后一种情况似乎有利于与经济周期相关的公司的股票，特别是那些能够转嫁成本上升和应对资本成本上升的公司。她表示，就资产类别而言，价值股往往比成长股更受青睐。</blockquote>But it&#39;s not that simple. &#34;It really depends on the company and that their capital structure and competitiveness in this type of environment,&#34; she said, noting that some technology stocks have fared very well in an environment that seems to no longer favor growth, while others have suffered.<blockquote>但事情没那么简单。她表示：“这实际上取决于公司及其资本结构和在此类环境中的竞争力。”她指出，一些科技股在似乎不再有利于增长的环境中表现良好，而另一些科技股则遭受了损失。</blockquote>That makes for a more &#34;company by company&#34; picture that favors active managers, Goodwin said.<blockquote>古德温表示，这使得情况更加“逐家公司”，有利于主动型基金经理。</blockquote>It&#39;s all part of a &#34;midcycle&#34; environment. Economic growth remains healthy, which is constructive for stocks, but growth is only likely to slow from here, she said, and that makes &#34;earnings and earnings quality particularly important.&#34;<blockquote>这都是“中期”环境的一部分。她表示，经济增长保持健康，这对股市具有建设性，但增长只可能从现在开始放缓，这使得“盈利和盈利质量尤为重要”。</blockquote>That will change when there are clearer signs the economy is simply decelerating, which is when more broad level asset class considerations play a bigger role in determining outcomes for investors, she said.<blockquote>她表示，当有更明确的迹象表明经济正在减速时，这种情况将会改变，此时更广泛的资产类别考虑因素在决定投资者的结果方面发挥更大的作用。</blockquote>U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Meanwhile, investors, like Fed officials, will remain glued to inflation data, while keeping watch on developments around Ukraine as U.S. officials warn of the threat of a Russian invasion.<blockquote>美国市场将于周一因总统日假期休市。与此同时，投资者和美联储官员一样，将继续关注通胀数据，同时密切关注乌克兰周边的事态发展，因为美国官员警告俄罗斯入侵的威胁。</blockquote>Ukraine-related jitters were blamed in part for the stock market&#39;s stumble over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.9%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2%.<blockquote>与乌克兰相关的紧张情绪是过去一周股市下跌的部分原因，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.9%，标普500下跌1.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.2%。</blockquote>Friday will bring the Fed&#39;s favored reading on price pressures with the release of the January personal consumption and expenditures, or PCE, inflation reading. The University of Michigan&#39;s final February take on five-year consumer inflation expectations is also due Friday.<blockquote>周五，随着1月份个人消费和支出（PCE）通胀数据的发布，美联储将公布对价格压力的有利数据。密歇根大学二月份对五年消费者通胀预期的最终评估也将于周五公布。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-fed-rate-hikes-crush-the-stock-market-heres-why-speed-matters-11645270790?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-fed-rate-hikes-crush-the-stock-market-heres-why-speed-matters-11645270790?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212671091","content_text":"With the Federal Reserve all but certain to begin raising interest rates in March, market prognosticators have been quick to reassure investors that history shows stocks tend to do just fine as policy makers embark on a monetary policy tightening cycle.But like most things related to markets, there's more to the story.It turns out that when the Fed moves fast to hike rates, as it has signaled it's prepared to do in a scramble to rein in U.S. inflation running at its hottest since the early 1980s, the stock market's short-term performance hasn't been quite as stellar, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.\"It's intuitive that the Fed's job when they start to raise rates is to take the punch bowl away before the party gets going too much,\" he said, in a Thursday interview. So it shouldn't be a surprise that \"the quicker they've been, the more markets have taken note.\"Clissold and Thanh Nguyen, NDR's senior quantitative analyst, detailed the difference between market performance in \"fast\" versus \"slow\" cycles in a Feb. 9 note. They found that in the year following the initial rate increase, the S&P 500 rose an average 10.5% in slow cycles versus an average fall of 2.7% in fast cycles (see chart below).Ned Davis ResearchThe median gain during the first year of a slow cycle was 13.4% versus 2.4% for fast cycles. The median maximum drawdown in slow cycles was 11%, compared with 12.1% for fast cycles.Overall, the \"return and drawdown statistics of a fast cycle are consistent with choppy conditions, but not necessarily a major bear market,\" Clissold and Nguyen wrote.So how fast is fast? It's a bit subjective, Clissold told MarketWatch, but past cycles have shaken out relatively clearly between the two categories. NDR expects four or more rate increases over the Fed's seven remaining policy meetings in 2022 alongside the start of a reduction in the size of the central bank's balance sheet -- a pace that would put the cycle clearly in the \"fast\" category.Some Fed watchers see a faster pace than that, and fed-funds futures traders have increasingly priced in the prospect of policy makers kicking off the cycle with a half-point rate increase rather than the typical quarter-point, or 25 basis point, move.The market's pricing of an aggressive rate-hike scenario appears reasonable given the inflation picture, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.That said, it's worth remembering that both the market and the Fed itself, via the central bank's so-called dot-plot forecast for benchmark interest rates, have been relatively poor at predicting the actual rate outcome, she noted, in a phone interview.That isn't a criticism, she said. Rather it merely reflects just how difficult it is to make accurate rate predictions. New York Life Investments, for its part, looks for four quarter-point rate increases in 2022, possibly frontloaded.The point, she said, is that there has already been substantial volatility around rate expectations and, moreover, that's likely to continue as data comes in. That could make for more volatility in the rates market and the yield curve, which has flattened significantly since the beginning of the year as rates at the short end have risen sharply in anticipation of Fed tightening while longer-dated yields have risen less sharply.The yield curve is viewed as an important indicator in itself. An inversion of the curve, particularly when the 2-year or shorter-dated yields rise above the 10-year yield, has been a reliable recession indicator.That hasn't happened yet, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect fears aggressive Fed tightening could throw the economy into recession, some analysts say. Others offer a more benign interpretation, with the flattening reflecting expectations a quick response by the Fed will help wrestle down inflation without requiring rates to rise to eye-watering levels.On the surface, the latter scenario would seem to favor stocks of companies tied to the economic cycle, particularly those that are able to pass on rising costs and navigate rising capital costs, Goodwin said. In asset class terms, that would tend to favor value stocks over growth stocks, she said.But it's not that simple. \"It really depends on the company and that their capital structure and competitiveness in this type of environment,\" she said, noting that some technology stocks have fared very well in an environment that seems to no longer favor growth, while others have suffered.That makes for a more \"company by company\" picture that favors active managers, Goodwin said.It's all part of a \"midcycle\" environment. Economic growth remains healthy, which is constructive for stocks, but growth is only likely to slow from here, she said, and that makes \"earnings and earnings quality particularly important.\"That will change when there are clearer signs the economy is simply decelerating, which is when more broad level asset class considerations play a bigger role in determining outcomes for investors, she said.U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Meanwhile, investors, like Fed officials, will remain glued to inflation data, while keeping watch on developments around Ukraine as U.S. officials warn of the threat of a Russian invasion.Ukraine-related jitters were blamed in part for the stock market's stumble over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2%.Friday will bring the Fed's favored reading on price pressures with the release of the January personal consumption and expenditures, or PCE, inflation reading. The University of Michigan's final February take on five-year consumer inflation expectations is also due Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.76,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}