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Alan_Goh
2022-09-07

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Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>

SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its

Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>

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However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position&#39;s cost basis and generate return.</li></ul>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull<blockquote><ul><li>过去5天，市场对阿里巴巴-SW的估值达成了某种共识；其价值在每股90.78美元至100.88美元之间。</li><li>在过去5天里，阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易，有时是在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而，围绕亏损头寸的短期交易如果执行成功，可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul>年轻的公牛和年长的、更聪明的公牛</blockquote>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, &#34;I&#39;m going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink&#34;. The older, wiser bull replied, &#34;I&#39;m going to walk over and buy them all a drink&#34;.<blockquote>最近，在一个阳光明媚的日子里，我观察到一头老公牛和一头小公牛在绿色的牧场上吃草。小公牛凝视着附近的一个水坑，注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。年轻人说，“我要跑过去给那些奶牛买一杯饮料”。年长、聪明的公牛回答说：“我要走过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：众所周知的一群牛</blockquote>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.<blockquote>去年，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）的交易价格在182.09美元的高点和73.28美元的低点之间。阿里巴巴总体呈下跌趋势，波动性极高，9月2日收于91.80美元。</blockquote>BABA: 1-Year Price Range<blockquote>阿里巴巴：1年价格范围</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Many portfolios, no doubt, include &#34;dead money&#34; in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.<blockquote>毫无疑问，许多投资组合都包含失去阿里巴巴头寸的“死钱”，未实现和已实现收益均为负。然而，每次股票在每个价格水平易手时，交易中都会有赢家和输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值向有意愿的买家出售；反之亦然。在大多数时间范围内，有可能在大多数交易中获胜，甚至在死钱上也能产生回报。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count<blockquote>短线交易策略：维持股数</blockquote>Over the last five days, BABA&#39;s price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.<blockquote>过去五天，阿里巴巴的价格区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同一5天内，阿里巴巴的交易价格出现了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近和去年的情况，人们可以合理地预计阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。以在实现短期收益的同时保持股票数量为目标，我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count<blockquote>阿里巴巴：5天价格及买卖范围-维持股票数量</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one&#39;s risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one&#39;s planned trading frequency &amp; volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.<blockquote>BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买入和卖出区域。卖出和买入区间分别从中位价格上方和下方0.75%开始。中位价格范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能更窄或更宽，具体取决于几个因素，包括一个人的风险承受能力、盘中关注阿里巴巴的密切程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析，我建议从95.11美元开始买入阿里巴巴，从96.55美元开始卖出，以便在保持股数的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count<blockquote>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</blockquote>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.<blockquote>这张图表是作者用可下载的Excel电子表格生成的。</blockquote>Maintain Share Count<blockquote>维护共享计数</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy &amp; sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.<blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买卖限价单以维持股数为目标制表；买卖计数和价差相等。我推荐那些对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中间价两侧下行买入和上行卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.<blockquote>然而，基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum<blockquote>阿里巴巴：估值和势头简要回顾</blockquote>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio<blockquote>阿里巴巴：历史EV/EBITDA比率</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA&#39;s current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.<blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA绘制了3年的图表，目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在2020年底达到峰值（可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析），此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市担忧将得到解决，市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率，现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote>BABA: Momentum<blockquote>爸爸：动量</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.<blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。一个简单的动量策略是基于均值回归；在大多数时间范围内，股价将围绕其平均值振荡。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡，股价就会上涨。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares<blockquote>短线交易策略：积累股份</blockquote>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.<blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同；调整了一个参数。</blockquote>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares<blockquote>BABA：5天价格及买卖范围：累积股票</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Again, BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the &#34;Maintain Share Count&#34;strategy discussed previously.<blockquote>同样，BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。然而，代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出区间从中位价格上方0.75%开始，而买入区间从中位价格下方0.5%开始。在这些范围内的短期交易比“维护共享计数”之前讨论过的策略。</blockquote>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares<blockquote>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</blockquote>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the &#34;Maintain Share Count&#34; strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.<blockquote>该图表与有关“维护共享计数”策略，并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote>Accumulate Shares<blockquote>累积股份</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in &#34;Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count&#34;chart.<blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差从0.75%降至0.50%。推荐的卖出订单是相同的，而推荐的买入订单稍微激进一些。本质上，建议的卖出和买入订单比“在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”图表。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales<blockquote>短线交易洗盘</blockquote>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.<blockquote>包括阿里巴巴在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRS关于wash销售的规则，并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他注册专业人士的建议。还提供了一篇关于洗售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说，IRS wash规则适用于30天内同一股票的买卖，最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.<blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果卖出亏损头寸或其一部分，然后以较低的成本回购，则发生洗盘。多数券商会调整持仓的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的，我碰巧持有一个亏损的BABA头寸。</blockquote>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.<blockquote>我的阿里巴巴成本基础约为115美元。我积极波动交易亏损头寸，并曾两次在阿里巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8月26日，我用上涨限价单卖出了10个区块的全部头寸，起价为98.5美元，间隔为0.5美元（98.5，99，99.5，…103美元），平均售价为100.75美元。当天晚些时候，我下了下跌限价单，以98美元开始买入相同的区块，下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘，随后，我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格重新填充剩余头寸。值得注意的是，在此期间，我既没有意识到最高可能的出售价格，也没有意识到最低可能的购买价格，但每股仍上涨了5.00美元。我的成本基础从每股115美元左右降至110美元左右。</blockquote>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail<blockquote>风险：计划获胜，但做好失败的准备</blockquote>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.<blockquote>对阿里巴巴的彻底基本面分析或新闻讨论超出了本次讨论的范围；其他地方也不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人要买卖任何股票，包括短期股票，评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha&#39;s advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.<blockquote>此外，如果阿里巴巴向任一方向大幅波动，建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能不是有利的。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图。</blockquote>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.<blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股价继续上涨，该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反，人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票，但永远无法出售这些股票以获取收益。</blockquote>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.<blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时，可以下免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型，在主订单执行后下二级订单。此外，投资者可以限制卖出头寸的数量，或者一旦达到头寸限制就停止逢低买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差，可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.<blockquote>激进的投资者可以在任何时候出售高达100%的任何头寸，或者仅受可用资金限制地积累。我建议持有不超过目标头寸规模10%的区块，累计最高可达目标头寸的1.5倍，并卖出至同一目标的50%。在股票波动较大的许多情况下，下上涨和/或下跌限价单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以按5%或更少的比例进行买卖，同时将积累限制在目标头寸的120%，并将出售限制在同一目标的80%。</blockquote>Investor Takeaways<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.<blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头，我不建议此时减少阿里巴巴的头寸。阿里巴巴头寸不是死钱；我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴，目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易保持在与过去五天类似的范围内，我建议大多数投资者在95.35美元以下买入阿里巴巴，并在96.55美元以上卖出。值得注意的是，阿里巴巴周五收于91.80美元，周二开盘价可能低于95.35美元。</blockquote>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high &amp; low prices over any time range, sell count &amp; spread, and buy count &amp; spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy &amp; sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.<blockquote>我建议投资者以数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦，然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价单。已经持有超过自身风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能渴望减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以使用相同的Excel电子表格生成买入和卖出区域图表并将限价单制成表格。</blockquote>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical &amp; patient; and walk. Don&#39;t run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.<blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市：年长的更聪明的牛市；有一个仔细考虑的计划；有条不紊&amp;有耐心；然后走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html><blockquote>在行动的时刻，记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的佛米奥</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Short-Term Trading Strategy<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：短线交易策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-09-06 23:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Over the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba&#39;s valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.</li><li>Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.</li><li>Money in losing positions is often called &#34;dead money&#34;. However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position&#39;s cost basis and generate return.</li></ul>The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser Bull<blockquote><ul><li>过去5天，市场对阿里巴巴-SW的估值达成了某种共识；其价值在每股90.78美元至100.88美元之间。</li><li>在过去5天里，阿里巴巴-SW多次在两个价值极值附近进行高交易量交易，有时是在同一天。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的波动性使其成为短期日内或波段交易的绝佳股票。</li><li>亏损头寸中的钱通常被称为“死钱”。然而，围绕亏损头寸的短期交易如果执行成功，可以降低头寸的成本基础并产生回报。</li></ul>年轻的公牛和年长的、更聪明的公牛</blockquote>Recently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, &#34;I&#39;m going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink&#34;. The older, wiser bull replied, &#34;I&#39;m going to walk over and buy them all a drink&#34;.<blockquote>最近，在一个阳光明媚的日子里，我观察到一头老公牛和一头小公牛在绿色的牧场上吃草。小公牛凝视着附近的一个水坑，注意到一群奶牛聚集在那里。年轻人说，“我要跑过去给那些奶牛买一杯饮料”。年长、聪明的公牛回答说：“我要走过去请他们喝一杯”。</blockquote>Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of Cows<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：众所周知的一群牛</blockquote>Over the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.<blockquote>去年，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）的交易价格在182.09美元的高点和73.28美元的低点之间。阿里巴巴总体呈下跌趋势，波动性极高，9月2日收于91.80美元。</blockquote>BABA: 1-Year Price Range<blockquote>阿里巴巴：1年价格范围</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca7be63615cd2146c68f392a0cef02e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Many portfolios, no doubt, include &#34;dead money&#34; in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.<blockquote>毫无疑问，许多投资组合都包含失去阿里巴巴头寸的“死钱”，未实现和已实现收益均为负。然而，每次股票在每个价格水平易手时，交易中都会有赢家和输家。聪明或幸运的投资者在短期峰值向有意愿的买家出售；反之亦然。在大多数时间范围内，有可能在大多数交易中获胜，甚至在死钱上也能产生回报。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share Count<blockquote>短线交易策略：维持股数</blockquote>Over the last five days, BABA&#39;s price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.<blockquote>过去五天，阿里巴巴的价格区间为每股90.78美元至100.88美元。在同一5天内，阿里巴巴的交易价格出现了几个短期高点和低点。根据最近和去年的情况，人们可以合理地预计阿里巴巴将继续以类似的方式反弹。以在实现短期收益的同时保持股票数量为目标，我推荐基于相对简单分析的短期买卖策略。</blockquote>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges - Maintain Share Count<blockquote>阿里巴巴：5天价格及买卖范围-维持股票数量</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0037de1ff3e4a30d8de1609790a0ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one&#39;s risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one&#39;s planned trading frequency &amp; volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.<blockquote>BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。绿色和红色阴影区域代表作者的短期买入和卖出区域。卖出和买入区间分别从中位价格上方和下方0.75%开始。中位价格范围两侧0.75%的价差有些武断。它可能更窄或更宽，具体取决于几个因素，包括一个人的风险承受能力、盘中关注阿里巴巴的密切程度以及一个人计划的交易频率和交易量。根据我对近期交易的分析，我建议从95.11美元开始买入阿里巴巴，从96.55美元开始卖出，以便在保持股数的同时实现短期收益。</blockquote>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count<blockquote>在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴</blockquote>This chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.<blockquote>这张图表是作者用可下载的Excel电子表格生成的。</blockquote>Maintain Share Count<blockquote>维护共享计数</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f311932792e534be4a59481a36ad3\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>Adjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy &amp; sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.<blockquote>可调输入位于阴影单元格中。买卖限价单以维持股数为目标制表；买卖计数和价差相等。我推荐那些对短期交易感到满意的投资者在短期中间价两侧下行买入和上行卖出限价单。不太激进的投资者可以下单个限价单或单个买卖对。</blockquote>However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.<blockquote>然而，基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，一些投资者可能希望积累阿里巴巴。</blockquote>BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and Momentum<blockquote>阿里巴巴：估值和势头简要回顾</blockquote>BABA: Historical EV/EBITDA Ratio<blockquote>阿里巴巴：历史EV/EBITDA比率</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d572de993b59310b63a1e15952975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA&#39;s current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.<blockquote>BABA EV/EBITDA绘制了3年的图表，目前接近该时间范围内的最低点。该比率在2020年底达到峰值（可以说是基于积极情绪和充满希望的分析），此后因退市担忧和负面情绪而下降。我预计退市担忧将得到解决，市场情绪将有所改善。根据阿里巴巴目前的EV/EBITDA比率，现在是积累股票的好时机。</blockquote>BABA: Momentum<blockquote>爸爸：动量</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c5bd8470c70c6d1153b9f3e6fec200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>BABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.<blockquote>阿里巴巴股价目前低于200日、100日、50日甚至10日简单移动平均线。一个简单的动量策略是基于均值回归；在大多数时间范围内，股价将围绕其平均值振荡。如果阿里巴巴向任何移动平均线振荡，股价就会上涨。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate Shares<blockquote>短线交易策略：积累股份</blockquote>Based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.<blockquote>基于对阿里巴巴估值和势头的简要回顾，我建议投资者积累阿里巴巴。下图与上面讨论的图几乎相同；调整了一个参数。</blockquote>BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy &amp; Sell Ranges: Accumulate Shares<blockquote>BABA：5天价格及买卖范围：累积股票</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0134a770b2e34c173529887827a35fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Again, BABA&#39;s 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the &#34;Maintain Share Count&#34;strategy discussed previously.<blockquote>同样，BABA的5天价格范围由蓝色实线表示，蓝色虚线绘制的中值价格为95.83美元。然而，代表短期买入和卖出区域的绿色和红色阴影区域相对于中值价格是不对称的。卖出区间从中位价格上方0.75%开始，而买入区间从中位价格下方0.5%开始。在这些范围内的短期交易比“维护共享计数”之前讨论过的策略。</blockquote>Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Accumulating Shares<blockquote>在积累股票的同时买卖阿里巴巴</blockquote>This chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the &#34;Maintain Share Count&#34; strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.<blockquote>该图表与有关“维护共享计数”策略，并使用相同的可下载Excel电子表格生成。</blockquote>Accumulate Shares<blockquote>累积股份</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96237d2d24d5b86f0fd446b9f1ee7ac2\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>The only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in &#34;Buy &amp; Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count&#34;chart.<blockquote>唯一的区别是买入价差从0.75%降至0.50%。推荐的卖出订单是相同的，而推荐的买入订单稍微激进一些。本质上，建议的卖出和买入订单比“在维持股票数量的同时买卖阿里巴巴”图表。</blockquote>Short-Term Trading and Wash Sales<blockquote>短线交易洗盘</blockquote>Any buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.<blockquote>包括阿里巴巴在内的任何证券的任何买家或卖家都应了解IRS关于wash销售的规则，并在必要时寻求注册会计师或其他注册专业人士的建议。还提供了一篇关于洗售规则的好的Seeking Alpha文章。一般来说，IRS wash规则适用于30天内同一股票的买卖，最常适用于税收损失销售。</blockquote>Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.<blockquote>另一种情况可能对投资者有利。如果卖出亏损头寸或其一部分，然后以较低的成本回购，则发生洗盘。多数券商会调整持仓的成本基础。用一个例子来讨论是最容易的，我碰巧持有一个亏损的BABA头寸。</blockquote>My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.<blockquote>我的阿里巴巴成本基础约为115美元。我积极波动交易亏损头寸，并曾两次在阿里巴巴文章的评论中分享我的策略。8月26日，我用上涨限价单卖出了10个区块的全部头寸，起价为98.5美元，间隔为0.5美元（98.5，99，99.5，…103美元），平均售价为100.75美元。当天晚些时候，我下了下跌限价单，以98美元开始买入相同的区块，下跌0.5美元。其中两个限价单当天以98美元和97.5美元收盘，随后，我能够以95.75美元的总平均价格重新填充剩余头寸。值得注意的是，在此期间，我既没有意识到最高可能的出售价格，也没有意识到最低可能的购买价格，但每股仍上涨了5.00美元。我的成本基础从每股115美元左右降至110美元左右。</blockquote>Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to Fail<blockquote>风险：计划获胜，但做好失败的准备</blockquote>A thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.<blockquote>对阿里巴巴的彻底基本面分析或新闻讨论超出了本次讨论的范围；其他地方也不乏分析和新闻。如果一个人要买卖任何股票，包括短期股票，评估应该仔细考虑。</blockquote>Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha&#39;s advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.<blockquote>此外，如果阿里巴巴向任一方向大幅波动，建议的买入和卖出范围在任何时期都可能不是有利的。我建议交易者使用Seeking Alpha的高级图表工具或手动打印和注释图表来生成类似的买入/卖出图。</blockquote>Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.<blockquote>短期交易至少会在两个方面出错。投资者可以在持续反弹开始时卖出一小部分头寸或全部头寸。如果股价继续上涨，该投资者可能没有机会以较低的价格回购这些股票。相反，人们可以在下跌时购买无限数量的股票，但永远无法出售这些股票以获取收益。</blockquote>An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.<blockquote>个人投资者可以通过多种方式管理这些风险。交易结束时，可以下免费但相反的限价单。一些经纪公司有特殊的订单类型，在主订单执行后下二级订单。此外，投资者可以限制卖出头寸的数量，或者一旦达到头寸限制就停止逢低买入。通过调整交易的频率、规模和价差，可以限制卖出和积累。</blockquote>An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.<blockquote>激进的投资者可以在任何时候出售高达100%的任何头寸，或者仅受可用资金限制地积累。我建议持有不超过目标头寸规模10%的区块，累计最高可达目标头寸的1.5倍，并卖出至同一目标的50%。在股票波动较大的许多情况下，下上涨和/或下跌限价单可能是一种成功的策略。更保守的投资者可以按5%或更少的比例进行买卖，同时将积累限制在目标头寸的120%，并将出售限制在同一目标的80%。</blockquote>Investor Takeaways<blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote>Based on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.<blockquote>根据目前的估值和势头，我不建议此时减少阿里巴巴的头寸。阿里巴巴头寸不是死钱；我建议大多数投资者短期交易阿里巴巴，目标是在积累股票的同时产生回报。如果交易保持在与过去五天类似的范围内，我建议大多数投资者在95.35美元以下买入阿里巴巴，并在96.55美元以上卖出。值得注意的是，阿里巴巴周五收于91.80美元，周二开盘价可能低于95.35美元。</blockquote>I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high &amp; low prices over any time range, sell count &amp; spread, and buy count &amp; spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy &amp; sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.<blockquote>我建议投资者以数字或其他方式在价格图表上涂鸦，然后将限价单制成表格。可下载的Excel电子表格将根据股票数量、任何时间范围内的最高价和最低价、卖出数量和价差以及买入数量和价差生成买入和卖出限价单。已经持有超过自身风险回报状况的阿里巴巴头寸的投资者可能渴望减少风险敞口。这些投资者还可以使用相同的Excel电子表格生成买入和卖出区域图表并将限价单制成表格。</blockquote>I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical &amp; patient; and walk. Don&#39;t run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.<blockquote>我建议所有投资者记住我最近观察到的两只牛市：年长的更聪明的牛市；有一个仔细考虑的计划；有条不紊&amp;有耐心；然后走路。别跑。耐心执行经过深思熟虑的计划的投资者往往是幸运的。</blockquote>In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens</body></html><blockquote>在行动的时刻，记住沉默和秩序的价值——雅典的佛米奥</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538878-alibaba-short-term-trading-strategy?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199050881","content_text":"SummaryOver the last 5 days, the market has reached a consensus of sorts on Alibaba's valuation; its value is somewhere between $90.78 and $100.88/share.Alibaba has repeatedly traded at high volumes near both value extremes in the last 5 days, sometimes on the same day.Alibaba's volatility makes it a great stock for short-term day or swing trading.Money in losing positions is often called \"dead money\". However short-term trading around a losing position can, if executed successfully, lower a position's cost basis and generate return.The Young Bull and the Older, Wiser BullRecently, I observed an old bull and a young bull grazing in a green pasture on a beautiful, sunny day. The young bull gazed towards a nearby watering hole and noticed a herd of cows had gathered there. The youngster said, \"I'm going to run over and buy one of those cows a drink\". The older, wiser bull replied, \"I'm going to walk over and buy them all a drink\".Alibaba: A Proverbial Herd of CowsOver the last year, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has traded between a high of $182.09 and a low of $73.28. BABA has generally trended down with exceptional volatility and closed on September 2nd at $91.80.BABA: 1-Year Price RangeSeeking AlphaMany portfolios, no doubt, include \"dead money\" in losing BABA positions with negative unrealized and realized gains. However, each time a share changed hands at every price level, there was a winner and a loser on the trade. Clever or lucky investors sold at a short-term peak to a willing buyer; the opposite case is also true. Over most time ranges, it may be possible to get on the winning side of most trades and generate return even on dead money.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Maintain Share CountOver the last five days, BABA's price range has been $90.78 to $100.88/share. Over the same 5 days, BABA has traded at several shorter-term highs and lows. Based on the recent past and the last year, one could reasonably expect BABA to continue bouncing in a similar way. With the goal of maintaining share count while realizing short-term gains, I recommend a short-term buying and selling strategy based on a relatively simple analysis.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges - Maintain Share CountSeeking AlphaBABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. The green and red shaded areas represent short-term buy and sell zones by the author. The sell and buy ranges begin at 0.75% above and below the median price respectively. The 0.75% spread on each side of the median price range is somewhat arbitrary. It could be narrower or broader depending on several factors including one's risk tolerance, how closely one will follow BABA intraday, and one's planned trading frequency & volume. Based on my analysis of recent trading, I recommend buying BABA beginning at $95.11 and selling beginning at $96.55 in order to realize short-term gains while maintaining share count.Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share CountThis chart was generated with a downloadable Excel spreadsheet by the author.Maintain Share CountAuthorAdjustable inputs are in the shaded cells. Buy and sell limit orders are tabulated with a goal of maintaining share count; buy & sell count and spread are equal. I recommend investors who are comfortable with short-term trading place descending buy and ascending sell limit orders on both sides of the short-term median price. Less aggressive investors can place a single limit order or a single buy and sell pair.However, based on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, some investors may wish to accumulate BABA.BABA: A Brief Review of Valuation and MomentumBABA: Historical EV/EBITDA RatioSeeking AlphaBABA EV/EBITDA is plotted over 3 years and is currently near its lowest point over that time range. The ratio reached a peak in late 2020 (arguably based on positive sentiment and hopeful analysis) and has since fallen on delisting concerns and negative sentiment. I expect delisting concerns to be resolved and sentiment to improve. Based on BABA's current EV/EBITDA ratio, now is a good time to accumulate shares.BABA: MomentumSeeking AlphaBABA share price is currently below its 200, 100, 50, and even 10-day simple moving averages. A simple momentum strategy is based on reversion to mean; over most time ranges, share price will oscillate around its mean value. If BABA oscillates towards any of its moving averages, share price will increase.Short-Term Trading Strategy: Accumulate SharesBased on a brief review of BABA valuation and momentum, I recommend investors accumulate BABA. The following graph is nearly identical to the graph discussed above; a single parameter has been adjusted.BABA: 5-Day Price with Buy & Sell Ranges: Accumulate SharesSeeking AlphaAgain, BABA's 5-day price range is represented by the solid blue line with a median price of $95.83 plotted by the blue dashed line. However, the green and red shaded areas representing short-term buy and sell zones are asymmetric with relation to the median price. The sell range begins at 0.75% above the median price while the buy range begins 0.5% below the median price. Short-term trading with these ranges would be more likely to result in accumulation of shares than the \"Maintain Share Count\"strategy discussed previously.Buy & Sell BABA While Accumulating SharesThis chart is very similar to that discussed with relation to the \"Maintain Share Count\" strategy and was generated with the same downloadable Excel spreadsheet.Accumulate SharesAuthorThe only difference is the buy spread has been reduced to 0.50% from 0.75%. The recommended sell orders are identical while the recommended buy orders are slightly more aggressive. In essence, the recommended sell and buy orders would be more likely to result in accumulating shares than those listed in \"Buy & Sell BABA While Maintaining Share Count\"chart.Short-Term Trading and Wash SalesAny buyer or seller of any security including BABA should be aware of IRSrules on wash sales and seek the advice of a licensed accountant or other licensed professional as necessary. A good Seeking Alpha article on wash sale rules is also available. Generally, IRS wash rules apply to the sale and purchase of an identical stock within a 30-day period and are most often applied to tax loss sales.Another scenario can be beneficial to investors. If a losing position or fraction thereof is sold and then repurchased at a lesser cost, a wash sale occurs. Most brokerages will adjust the cost basis of the position. It is easiest to discuss with an example and I happen to hold a losing BABA position.My BABA cost basis is approximately $115. I swing trade losing positions aggressively and have shared my strategy in comments on BABA articles on two occasions. On August 26th, I sold my entire position in 10 blocks with ascending limit orders starting at $98.5 with intervals of $0.5 (98.5, 99, 99.5, …$103) for an average sale price of $100.75. I placed descending limit orders later in the day to buy the same blocks starting at $98 and descending by $0.5. Two of those limit orders closed that day at $98 and $97.5 and subsequently, I was able to refill the remainder of my position with a total average price of $95.75. Notably, I realized neither the highest possible sale price nor the lowest possible purchase price over the period but still gained $5.00 per share. My cost basis was lowered from about $115 to about $110/share.Risks: Plan to Win but Be Prepared to FailA thorough fundamental analysis of BABA or discussion of news is beyond the scope of this discussion; there is no shortage of analysis and news elsewhere. If one is going to buy or sell any stock, including short-term, evaluation should be carefully considered.Further, the recommended buying and selling ranges may not be advantageous over any period if BABA makes a big move in either direction. I recommend traders generate a similar buy/sell plot either with Seeking Alpha's advanced charting tool or by printing and annotating a chart by hand.Short-term trading can go wrong in at least two ways. An investor can sell a fraction of a position or an entire position at the beginning of a sustained rally. That investor might not have an opportunity to repurchase those shares at a lesser price if the stock continues to rally. Conversely, one can purchase an unlimited quantity of shares on a dip and never be able to sell those shares for a gain.An individual investor can manage these risks several ways. Complimentary but opposite limit orders can be placed as transactions close. Some brokerages have special order types whereby a secondary order is placed after a primary order executes. Further, an investor can limit how much of a position is sold or stop buying a dip once a position limit is reached. Both selling and accumulation can be limited by adjusting the frequency, size, and spread of the trades.An aggressive investor can sell up to 100% of any position at any moment or accumulate limited only by available funds. I recommend blocks no bigger than 10% of target position size with accumulation up to 1.5x target position and selling down to 50% of the same target. In many cases where a stock is volatile, placing ascending and/or descending limit orders can be a successful strategy. More conservative investors can buy and sell in blocks of 5% or less while limiting accumulation to 120% of a target position and selling down to 80% of the same target.Investor TakeawaysBased on current valuation and momentum, I would not recommend decreasing a BABA position at this time. BABA positions are not dead money; I advise most investors trade BABA short-term with the goal of generating return while accumulating shares. I recommend most investors buy BABA below $95.35 and sell above $96.55 if trading remains in a range similar to the last five days. Notably, Baba closed at $91.80 on Friday and may open below $95.35 on Tuesday.I recommend investors do their own scribbling over a price chart digitally or otherwise and then tabulate limit orders. The downloadable Excel spreadsheet will generate buy and sell limit orders based on share count, high & low prices over any time range, sell count & spread, and buy count & spread. Investors who already hold a larger BABA position than fits their own risk reward profile may be eager to reduce exposure. These Investors can also generate a buy & sell zone chart and tabulate limit orders with the same Excel spreadsheet.I advise all investors remember the two bulls I recently observed: be the older wiser, bull; have a carefully considered plan; be methodical & patient; and walk. Don't run. Investors who patiently execute carefully considered plans are often lucky.In the moment of action, remember the value of silence and order - Phormio of Athens","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":42,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}