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尊重市场简言慎行
2022-09-01

Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications<blockquote>查理·芒格预测市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”：SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响</blockquote>

SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face

Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications<blockquote>查理·芒格预测市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”：SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响</blockquote>

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Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:<blockquote>我们得到的是可怜的过剩和对国家的危险。每个人都喜欢它，因为它就像一群人在聚会上喝醉；他们喝得太开心了，以至于没有考虑后果。最终，会有相当大的麻烦，因为可怜的过剩，这是过去通常的工作方式。他接着定义了他所说的“可怜的过度”是什么意思：</blockquote>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:<blockquote>当然，游戏驿站（GME）的大空头挤压是可悲的过度。当然，比特币（BTC-USD）的事情是可怜的过剩。我认为风险投资投入太多太快，风险投资和其他形式的私募股权存在相当大的过剩...从来没有像我们现在这样的事情。我们确实从其他国家发生的事情中知道，如果你试图印太多的钱，最终会造成可怕的麻烦。我们比过去更接近可怕的麻烦，但可能还有很长的路要走。”而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR标普500信托ETF</a>自那次会议以来，它的回报率为-8.57%，但尚未经历芒格先生所说的“相当大的麻烦”：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的SPDR标普500指数ETF总回报价格数据</blockquote>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:<blockquote>然而，我们可以肯定地看到，自那以后的几个月里，这种可悲的过剩现象仍在继续，其症状也有所增加。尽管加密货币泡沫继续破裂，自芒格发表言论以来，比特币又下跌了56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a>继续享受高估值：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的GME数据</blockquote>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:<blockquote>我们还可以看到，尽管近几个月利率大幅上升，但利率仍接近历史低点，而自芒格先生发表言论以来，高度通胀的货币供应一直相对持平：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的美国长期利率数据</blockquote>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:<blockquote>我们还可以看到，市场指数尤其是房价仍然处于高位：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的SPDR标普500指数ETF数据</blockquote>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:<blockquote>然而，所有这些过度和泡沫行为的后果开始显现，GDP连续两个季度下降，近几个月通胀飙升至四年来的高点：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的美国消费者价格指数同比数据</blockquote>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.<blockquote>在本文中，我们将讨论这对SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响以及我们在当前环境下的投资方法。</blockquote><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:<blockquote><h3>含义1：远期回报可能乏善可陈</h3>鉴于当前的宏观经济和市场状况，芒格言论的最大启示是，SPDR标普500指数ETF的远期回报可能会乏善可陈。原因很简单：</blockquote>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.<blockquote>1.在可预见的未来，经济增长前景即使不是负面，也是疲弱的。如果没有强劲的经济增长，盈利增长也必然疲软。</blockquote>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.<blockquote>2.估值倍数相对于历史平均值偏高。根据datacompiledby当前市场估值基于收益率曲线、巴菲特指标、市盈率、利率、保证金债务和基于历史数据的标普500均值回归模型的同等加权平均值，市场目前正接近公允估值范围的上限。这意味着它几乎被高估了，这意味着在可预见的未来，市场可能会经历乏善可陈（如果不是糟糕的话）的回报。根据收益率曲线、巴菲特指标、市盈率、标普500均值回归模型，SPDR标普500指数ETF被高估，根据利率模型略高于公允价值，根据保证金债务模型略低于公允价值。</blockquote>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.<blockquote>3.基于持续高企的通胀和美联储的最新言论，利率可能会进一步上升。近期更高的利率将使市场目前根据利率模型显得估值过高，为市场目前估值过高的论点进一步增加砝码。更高的利率也会像重力一样影响资产估值，压低资产估值。</blockquote>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.<blockquote>当你将疲软的增长与缺乏多重扩张（事实上可能是多重压缩）、非常低的股息收益率以及可能的加息结合起来时，就没有真正的催化剂来推动股市回报。</blockquote><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.<blockquote><h3>含义2：在可预见的未来，波动性可能会上升</h3>尽管如此，利率确实仍处于历史低位，全球市场上仍有大量过剩资本流动。因此，仍有可能出现大量逢低买盘，特别是在通胀下降、经济比预期更好地抵御当前不利因素和/或美联储开始改变其鹰派立场的任何迹象下。随着多头和空头继续以激进的方式一决雌雄，多头积极逢低买入，空头因对经济衰退和/或进一步加息的担忧而积极卖出，波动性可能会保持高位。</blockquote>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.<blockquote>最重要的是，随着东亚、中东和东欧地缘政治风险的加剧，有很多潜在的进一步催化剂导致股市在一分钟内暴跌。</blockquote><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:<blockquote><h3>含义3：市场崩盘的可能性很大</h3>正如暗示#2中已经指出的，目前市场崩盘也是很有可能的。原因很简单：</blockquote>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.<blockquote>1.正如已经强调的那样，估值已经过高，因此崩盘并不需要与历史估值水平明显背离。事实上，要完全纠正过去十年央行行长人为刺激的金融市场，可能需要一场崩盘。</blockquote>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.<blockquote>2.有许多催化剂可能引发市场崩盘，而且目前似乎比近年来的任何时候都更有可能：任何数量的地缘政治危机，从中国入侵台湾到欧洲核战争，如果伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间爆发战争，将引发重大能源危机，严重扰乱全球经济的大规模网络攻击，出现重大新流行病或COVID-19变种，甚至可能出现重大全球衰退。</blockquote><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:<blockquote><h3>投资者要点</h3>虽然对于试图驾驭市场的投资者来说，现在肯定是复杂的（如果不是极具挑战性的话）时期，但我们仍保持充分投资。然而，我们牢记以下原则，以指导我们在此期间更加谨慎：</blockquote>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.<blockquote>1.我们非常有选择性，只投资于似乎具有明显安全边际的证券，同时在最具周期性的头寸中保持较小的权重，并增持最具防御性的头寸。</blockquote>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.<blockquote>2.在此期间，我们避免承担任何个人杠杆，以最大限度地降低在市场崩盘时遭受巨额损失的风险，并使我们有能力潜在地创造一些干粉来利用市场崩盘。</blockquote>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.<blockquote>3.我们还投资于从波动性上升中获利的证券，因为我们相信，即使在市场没有经历全面崩盘的情况下，由于地缘政治和宏观经济动荡越来越频繁地困扰市场，在可预见的未来，波动性水平也可能高于平均水平。如下图所示，theVIXis描述的波动性较COVID-19之前大幅上升，甚至在2022年相对于2021年下半年有所上升。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的VIXdata</blockquote>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.<blockquote>对于那些选择继续投资SPDR标普500指数ETF等低成本指数基金的人来说，我们在短期内并不看好，因为出于本文概述的原因，我们预计经济增长乏力、估值上升、利率上升，以及在可预见的未来，黑天鹅事件的风险上升将抑制广泛的市场总回报。因此，我们鼓励投资者在当前环境下更有选择性，而不是盲目买入大盘。与此同时，对于那些致力于长期被动投资的人来说，通过持续的长期美元成本平均和审慎的个人财务管理来保持充分投资不太可能在几十年内带来令人失望的结果。因此，我们现在给予SPDR标普500指数ETF持有评级。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications<blockquote>查理·芒格预测市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”：SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications<blockquote>查理·芒格预测市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”：SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-09-01 23:19\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:<blockquote><ul><li>今年早些时候，亿万富翁投资者查理·芒格预测市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”。</li><li>我们根据最近的宏观经济发展及其对标普500的影响来看看他的预测。</li><li>我们还分享了我们在当前环境下的投资方法。</li></ul>亿万富翁投资者查理·芒格-沃伦·巴菲特的合伙人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔哈撒韦</a>-最近在今年早些时候的《每日日报》(DJCO)年会上表示，市场将面临“相当大的麻烦”，并表示：</blockquote>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:<blockquote>我们得到的是可怜的过剩和对国家的危险。每个人都喜欢它，因为它就像一群人在聚会上喝醉；他们喝得太开心了，以至于没有考虑后果。最终，会有相当大的麻烦，因为可怜的过剩，这是过去通常的工作方式。他接着定义了他所说的“可怜的过度”是什么意思：</blockquote>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:<blockquote>当然，游戏驿站（GME）的大空头挤压是可悲的过度。当然，比特币（BTC-USD）的事情是可怜的过剩。我认为风险投资投入太多太快，风险投资和其他形式的私募股权存在相当大的过剩...从来没有像我们现在这样的事情。我们确实从其他国家发生的事情中知道，如果你试图印太多的钱，最终会造成可怕的麻烦。我们比过去更接近可怕的麻烦，但可能还有很长的路要走。”而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR标普500信托ETF</a>自那次会议以来，它的回报率为-8.57%，但尚未经历芒格先生所说的“相当大的麻烦”：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的SPDR标普500指数ETF总回报价格数据</blockquote>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:<blockquote>然而，我们可以肯定地看到，自那以后的几个月里，这种可悲的过剩现象仍在继续，其症状也有所增加。尽管加密货币泡沫继续破裂，自芒格发表言论以来，比特币又下跌了56%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a>继续享受高估值：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的GME数据</blockquote>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:<blockquote>我们还可以看到，尽管近几个月利率大幅上升，但利率仍接近历史低点，而自芒格先生发表言论以来，高度通胀的货币供应一直相对持平：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的美国长期利率数据</blockquote>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:<blockquote>我们还可以看到，市场指数尤其是房价仍然处于高位：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的SPDR标普500指数ETF数据</blockquote>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:<blockquote>然而，所有这些过度和泡沫行为的后果开始显现，GDP连续两个季度下降，近几个月通胀飙升至四年来的高点：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的美国消费者价格指数同比数据</blockquote>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.<blockquote>在本文中，我们将讨论这对SPDR标普500指数ETF的影响以及我们在当前环境下的投资方法。</blockquote><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:<blockquote><h3>含义1：远期回报可能乏善可陈</h3>鉴于当前的宏观经济和市场状况，芒格言论的最大启示是，SPDR标普500指数ETF的远期回报可能会乏善可陈。原因很简单：</blockquote>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.<blockquote>1.在可预见的未来，经济增长前景即使不是负面，也是疲弱的。如果没有强劲的经济增长，盈利增长也必然疲软。</blockquote>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.<blockquote>2.估值倍数相对于历史平均值偏高。根据datacompiledby当前市场估值基于收益率曲线、巴菲特指标、市盈率、利率、保证金债务和基于历史数据的标普500均值回归模型的同等加权平均值，市场目前正接近公允估值范围的上限。这意味着它几乎被高估了，这意味着在可预见的未来，市场可能会经历乏善可陈（如果不是糟糕的话）的回报。根据收益率曲线、巴菲特指标、市盈率、标普500均值回归模型，SPDR标普500指数ETF被高估，根据利率模型略高于公允价值，根据保证金债务模型略低于公允价值。</blockquote>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.<blockquote>3.基于持续高企的通胀和美联储的最新言论，利率可能会进一步上升。近期更高的利率将使市场目前根据利率模型显得估值过高，为市场目前估值过高的论点进一步增加砝码。更高的利率也会像重力一样影响资产估值，压低资产估值。</blockquote>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.<blockquote>当你将疲软的增长与缺乏多重扩张（事实上可能是多重压缩）、非常低的股息收益率以及可能的加息结合起来时，就没有真正的催化剂来推动股市回报。</blockquote><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.<blockquote><h3>含义2：在可预见的未来，波动性可能会上升</h3>尽管如此，利率确实仍处于历史低位，全球市场上仍有大量过剩资本流动。因此，仍有可能出现大量逢低买盘，特别是在通胀下降、经济比预期更好地抵御当前不利因素和/或美联储开始改变其鹰派立场的任何迹象下。随着多头和空头继续以激进的方式一决雌雄，多头积极逢低买入，空头因对经济衰退和/或进一步加息的担忧而积极卖出，波动性可能会保持高位。</blockquote>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.<blockquote>最重要的是，随着东亚、中东和东欧地缘政治风险的加剧，有很多潜在的进一步催化剂导致股市在一分钟内暴跌。</blockquote><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:<blockquote><h3>含义3：市场崩盘的可能性很大</h3>正如暗示#2中已经指出的，目前市场崩盘也是很有可能的。原因很简单：</blockquote>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.<blockquote>1.正如已经强调的那样，估值已经过高，因此崩盘并不需要与历史估值水平明显背离。事实上，要完全纠正过去十年央行行长人为刺激的金融市场，可能需要一场崩盘。</blockquote>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.<blockquote>2.有许多催化剂可能引发市场崩盘，而且目前似乎比近年来的任何时候都更有可能：任何数量的地缘政治危机，从中国入侵台湾到欧洲核战争，如果伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间爆发战争，将引发重大能源危机，严重扰乱全球经济的大规模网络攻击，出现重大新流行病或COVID-19变种，甚至可能出现重大全球衰退。</blockquote><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:<blockquote><h3>投资者要点</h3>虽然对于试图驾驭市场的投资者来说，现在肯定是复杂的（如果不是极具挑战性的话）时期，但我们仍保持充分投资。然而，我们牢记以下原则，以指导我们在此期间更加谨慎：</blockquote>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.<blockquote>1.我们非常有选择性，只投资于似乎具有明显安全边际的证券，同时在最具周期性的头寸中保持较小的权重，并增持最具防御性的头寸。</blockquote>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.<blockquote>2.在此期间，我们避免承担任何个人杠杆，以最大限度地降低在市场崩盘时遭受巨额损失的风险，并使我们有能力潜在地创造一些干粉来利用市场崩盘。</blockquote>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.<blockquote>3.我们还投资于从波动性上升中获利的证券，因为我们相信，即使在市场没有经历全面崩盘的情况下，由于地缘政治和宏观经济动荡越来越频繁地困扰市场，在可预见的未来，波动性水平也可能高于平均水平。如下图所示，theVIXis描述的波动性较COVID-19之前大幅上升，甚至在2022年相对于2021年下半年有所上升。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts<blockquote>YCharts提供的VIXdata</blockquote>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.<blockquote>对于那些选择继续投资SPDR标普500指数ETF等低成本指数基金的人来说，我们在短期内并不看好，因为出于本文概述的原因，我们预计经济增长乏力、估值上升、利率上升，以及在可预见的未来，黑天鹅事件的风险上升将抑制广泛的市场总回报。因此，我们鼓励投资者在当前环境下更有选择性，而不是盲目买入大盘。与此同时，对于那些致力于长期被动投资的人来说，通过持续的长期美元成本平均和审慎的个人财务管理来保持充分投资不太可能在几十年内带来令人失望的结果。因此，我们现在给予SPDR标普500指数ETF持有评级。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}