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2021-12-16

Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加快美联储taper的三份数据报告</blockquote>

The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond pu

Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加快美联储taper的三份数据报告</blockquote>

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But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.<blockquote>在11月会议之前，一些政策制定者——其中包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德——一直在敦促加快“缩减”步伐，以便在需要时为提前加息腾出空间。但他们的声音并没有得到支持，美联储政策制定者几周来一直在让市场和公众做好准备，预计将其债券购买规模从每月1200亿美元降至零的做法将持续到2022年中期。</blockquote> Just days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.<blockquote>然而，就在美联储11月会议宣布该计划的前几天，鲍威尔第一次暗示步伐可能太慢：劳工部报告称，第三季度劳动力成本飙升至2004年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> \"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上表示：“我想了一下我们是否应该增加缩减规模。”但决定按照“社会化”的步伐继续前进。</blockquote> The Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.<blockquote>美联储在11月3日会议结束时宣布，将从11月中旬开始每月减少100亿美元的美国国债购买量，减少50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量，如果持续下去，这一缩减速度将在6月前结束该计划。</blockquote> Another jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.<blockquote>另一次冲击发生在会议结束后两天，当时10月份的就业增长远高于预期，劳工部表示，前两个月创造的就业岗位比最初想象的多了近25万个。</blockquote> It was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"<blockquote>然而，让鲍威尔完全越界的是下周的通胀数据：消费者价格指数显示通胀以三十年来未见的速度飙升，而且范围越来越广，这些数据使得继续将其描述为“暂时的”站不住脚。”</blockquote> \"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.<blockquote>“老实说，当时我真的决定，我认为我们需要考虑加快缩减规模，我们就开始了这方面的工作，”他说。</blockquote> From there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.<blockquote>从那时起，鲍威尔开始在政策制定者中建立共识，即他们应该将缩减步伐提高一倍，以便在3月份之前完成资产购买——这一决定在本周的会议上获得一致通过。如果需要应对更高的通胀，这为官员们明年加息提供了更多的余地，他们在停止购买债券之前不想采取这一步骤。</blockquote> \"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“本质上是通胀上升，而且劳动力市场的进步速度更快——事实证明要快得多。”</blockquote> Taming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示，抑制更高的通胀也将有助于消除美联储实现最大就业目标的最大“威胁”之一，因为这可能允许潜在的更长时间的扩张。</blockquote> \"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔说：“这才是回到我们希望看到的劳动力市场的真正需要。”“为了实现这一目标，我们需要确保维持价格稳定。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加快美联储taper的三份数据报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-12-16 19:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond purchases when Chair Jerome Powell became persuaded they'd need to push even harder against inflation.<blockquote>美联储11月开始减少债券购买的政策决定墨迹未干，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就确信他们需要更加努力地对抗通胀。</blockquote> It was the culmination of a volatile few weeks in which inflation went from an academic threat - Powell offered a lengthy discourse on it at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium - to a clear danger to the economy and sent the Fed chair charting out the central bank's next move.<blockquote>这是动荡的几周的高潮，通胀从学术威胁（鲍威尔在美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会上就此发表了长篇演讲）变成了对经济的明显危险，并让美联储主席制定了央行的下一步行动。</blockquote> Leading up to the November meeting, a few policymakers - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard among them - had been pressing for a faster \"taper\" to make room for an earlier rate hike if needed. But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.<blockquote>在11月会议之前，一些政策制定者——其中包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德——一直在敦促加快“缩减”步伐，以便在需要时为提前加息腾出空间。但他们的声音并没有得到支持，美联储政策制定者几周来一直在让市场和公众做好准备，预计将其债券购买规模从每月1200亿美元降至零的做法将持续到2022年中期。</blockquote> Just days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.<blockquote>然而，就在美联储11月会议宣布该计划的前几天，鲍威尔第一次暗示步伐可能太慢：劳工部报告称，第三季度劳动力成本飙升至2004年以来的最高水平。</blockquote> \"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上表示：“我想了一下我们是否应该增加缩减规模。”但决定按照“社会化”的步伐继续前进。</blockquote> The Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.<blockquote>美联储在11月3日会议结束时宣布，将从11月中旬开始每月减少100亿美元的美国国债购买量，减少50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买量，如果持续下去，这一缩减速度将在6月前结束该计划。</blockquote> Another jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.<blockquote>另一次冲击发生在会议结束后两天，当时10月份的就业增长远高于预期，劳工部表示，前两个月创造的就业岗位比最初想象的多了近25万个。</blockquote> It was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"<blockquote>然而，让鲍威尔完全越界的是下周的通胀数据：消费者价格指数显示通胀以三十年来未见的速度飙升，而且范围越来越广，这些数据使得继续将其描述为“暂时的”站不住脚。”</blockquote> \"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.<blockquote>“老实说，当时我真的决定，我认为我们需要考虑加快缩减规模，我们就开始了这方面的工作，”他说。</blockquote> From there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.<blockquote>从那时起，鲍威尔开始在政策制定者中建立共识，即他们应该将缩减步伐提高一倍，以便在3月份之前完成资产购买——这一决定在本周的会议上获得一致通过。如果需要应对更高的通胀，这为官员们明年加息提供了更多的余地，他们在停止购买债券之前不想采取这一步骤。</blockquote> \"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“本质上是通胀上升，而且劳动力市场的进步速度更快——事实证明要快得多。”</blockquote> Taming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.<blockquote>鲍威尔表示，抑制更高的通胀也将有助于消除美联储实现最大就业目标的最大“威胁”之一，因为这可能允许潜在的更长时间的扩张。</blockquote> \"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"<blockquote>鲍威尔说：“这才是回到我们希望看到的劳动力市场的真正需要。”“为了实现这一目标，我们需要确保维持价格稳定。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-three-data-reports-persuaded-111124772.html\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-three-data-reports-persuaded-111124772.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149635928","content_text":"The ink had barely dried on the Federal Reserve's November policy decision to begin reducing bond purchases when Chair Jerome Powell became persuaded they'd need to push even harder against inflation.\nIt was the culmination of a volatile few weeks in which inflation went from an academic threat - Powell offered a lengthy discourse on it at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium - to a clear danger to the economy and sent the Fed chair charting out the central bank's next move.\nLeading up to the November meeting, a few policymakers - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard among them - had been pressing for a faster \"taper\" to make room for an earlier rate hike if needed. But their voices hadn't carried the day, and Fed policymakers had for weeks been prepping markets and the public to expect the exercise of bringing its bond purchases from $120 billion a month to zero would extend into mid-2022.\nJust days before the Fed's November meeting, however, when the plan was to be announced, Powell got his first inkling that the pace might be too slow: The Labor Department reported labor costs in the third quarter had shot up by the most since 2004.\n\"I thought for a second there whether we should increase our taper,\" Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday, but decided to go ahead with the pace that had been \"socialized.\"\nThe Fed announced at the end of the meeting on Nov. 3 that it would begin reducing its purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion monthly and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion starting in mid-November, a tapering rate that if sustained would have wrapped up the program by June.\nAnother jolt came just two days after the meeting when employment gains for October came in much higher than expected, and the Labor Department said nearly a quarter million more jobs had been created in the prior two months than initially thought.\nIt was the next week's inflation data, though, that carried Powell fully over the line: The Consumer Price Index showed inflation surging at a rate not seen in three decades and growing increasingly broadbased, data that made it untenable to continue characterizing it as \"transitory.\"\n\"I honestly at that point really decided that I thought we needed to look at speeding up the taper and we went to work on that,\" he said.\nFrom there, Powell moved to build consensus among policymakers that they should double the taper pace to conclude asset purchases by March - a decision approved unanimously at this week's meeting. That gives officials more leeway to raise interest rates next year if needed to tackle the higher inflation, a step they would not want to take until after they've stopped purchasing bonds.\n\"It was essentially higher inflation and, and faster - turns out much faster - progress in the labor market,\" Powell said.\nTaming higher inflation will also help to remove one of the biggest \"threats\" to the Fed's goal of achieving maximum employment because it could allow for a potentially longer expansion, Powell said.\n\"That's what it would really take to get back to the kind of labor market that we'd like to see,\" Powell said. \"And to have that happen, we need to make sure that we maintain price stability.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2820,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Analysis-The three data reports that persuaded Powell to speed up Fed's taper<blockquote>分析——说服鲍威尔加快美联储taper的三份数据报告</blockquote>

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