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2021-12-16

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All the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote>

The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wai

All the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":690901862,"tweetId":"690901862","gmtCreate":1639618354308,"gmtModify":1639618354499,"author":{"id":3578099872805879,"idStr":"3578099872805879","authorId":3578099872805879,"authorIdStr":"3578099872805879","name":"33c3eb1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690901862","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172070133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639621250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172070133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"All the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172070133","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wai","content":"The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out<blockquote>美联储制定了一条全新的路线来打击通胀，而不是继续等待通胀结束</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1b24817095f66e1cbf69b3dd7a4ad8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying bonds to stimulate the economy&nbsp;or that it’s now signaling three increases in its benchmark lending rate in 2022. Those short-term policy decisions had been well-telegraphed by Fed officials over the past month.<blockquote>美联储周三会议的重大消息并不是它将停止购买债券来刺激经济，也不是它现在暗示将在2022年三次上调基准贷款利率。过去一个月，美联储官员已经充分传达了这些短期政策决定。</blockquote> No, the big surprise is that the gargantuan, change-averse Fed has turned 180 degrees in its view of inflation.<blockquote>不，最令人惊讶的是，庞大的、厌恶变革的美联储对通胀的看法发生了180度的转变。</blockquote> The Fed’s statement&nbsp;Wednesday and the accompanying materials show that the doves — the policy makers who generally believe that the risk of inflation is overblown — have completely surrendered. Everyone’s a hawk now. There are no doves at the Fed anymore.<blockquote>美联储周三的声明和附带的材料表明，鸽派——普遍认为通胀风险被夸大的政策制定者——已经完全投降。现在每个人都是鹰。美联储已经没有鸽派了。</blockquote> Fed monetary-policy makers unanimously agree that fighting inflation is their No. 1 job. They may disagree on the tactics or the timing, but not on the strategy of vanquishing inflation soon. The Fed is on a war footing, and inflation is the enemy.<blockquote>美联储货币政策制定者一致认为，对抗通胀是他们的首要任务。他们可能在策略或时机上存在分歧，但在尽快战胜通胀的策略上却没有分歧。美联储处于战争状态，通胀是敌人。</blockquote> For 30 years, the doves had been right: Inflation wasn’t the biggest threat to the economy; unemployment was. The doves fought an ultimately successful battle to force the Federal Reserve to consider the very real costs that unemployment forces upon society and the many individuals whom the economy was leaving behind.<blockquote>30年来，鸽派一直是对的：通货膨胀不是经济的最大威胁；失业是。鸽派打了一场最终成功的战斗，迫使美联储考虑失业给社会和经济留下的许多个人带来的非常真实的成本。</blockquote> But now effects of the coronavirus pandemic have forced even the doves to accept that inflation is a bigger threat than unemployment. That’s a huge change in an institution that doesn’t like change.<blockquote>但现在，冠状病毒大流行的影响甚至迫使鸽派接受通胀是比失业更大的威胁。对于一个不喜欢变化的机构来说，这是一个巨大的变化。</blockquote> How do we know the doves have metamorphosed into hawks? Look at the dot plot, a chart the Fed releases every three months that shows the anonymous individual forecasts of each monetary-policy maker for the level of the federal funds rate at the ends of the next several years.<blockquote>我们怎么知道鸽子已经变成鹰了？看看点阵图，这是美联储每三个月发布一次的图表，显示了每个货币政策制定者对未来几年底联邦基金利率水平的匿名个人预测。</blockquote> Most analysts correctly focus on the median forecast for the coming year, but I’d like to redirect your attention briefly to the medium-term forecasts of the outliers, the most hawkish and dovish members of the Fed, to show how much the battlefield inside the Fed has changed since that horrendous consumer-price-index reading of Nov. 10. That report changed everything at the Fed.<blockquote>大多数分析师正确地关注来年的预测中值，但我想将您的注意力简要地转移到异常值（美联储最鹰派和鸽派成员）的中期预测上，以显示战场有多大自11月10日可怕的消费者价格指数数据以来，美联储内部发生了变化。那份报告改变了美联储的一切。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc738ce106c9173e3b5b93bf435f87f7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In the latest forecasts released Wednesday, the most hawkish members raised their medium-term forecasts modestly from 1.63% to 2.13% at the end of 2023, and from 2.63% to 3.13% at the end of 2024. The five most hawkish members now think the Fed will have to push the fed funds rate above its assumed long-run equilibrium of 2.5%.<blockquote>在周三发布的最新预测中，最鹰派的成员将2023年底的中期预测从1.63%温和上调至2.13%，2024年底从2.63%上调至3.13%。五位最鹰派的成员现在认为，美联储将不得不将联邦基金利率推高至2.5%的假设长期均衡水平之上。</blockquote> But the doves completely tore up their previous forecasts. The five most dovish members were forecasting between zero and two rate hikes by the end of 2023, but now they expect four or five. By the end of 2024, they had been forecasting between two and four rate hikes; now they expect seven.<blockquote>但是鸽派彻底撕毁了他们之前的预测。五位最鸽派的成员此前预测，到2023年底，加息幅度将在零到两次之间，但现在他们预计加息四到五次。到2024年底，他们一直预测加息两到四次；现在他们预计是七个。</blockquote> Clearly, even the most dovish Fed officials now believe&nbsp;the fed funds rate must go up a lot to vanquish inflation. Before, they thought inflation would come down all by itself.<blockquote>显然，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员现在也认为，联邦基金利率必须大幅上升才能战胜通胀。以前，他们认为通货膨胀会自行下降。</blockquote> This means that inflation no longer gets the benefit of the doubt. It’s been proven guilty, and even the doves will prosecute the war until victory is won. For the inflation doves at the Fed, Nov. 10, 2021, was bit of like Dec. 7, 1941: Time to go to war.<blockquote>这意味着通货膨胀不再受益。它被证明是有罪的，即使是鸽派也会继续战争，直到取得胜利。对于美联储通胀鸽派来说，2021年11月10日有点像1941年12月7日：是时候开战了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-16 10:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out<blockquote>美联储制定了一条全新的路线来打击通胀，而不是继续等待通胀结束</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1b24817095f66e1cbf69b3dd7a4ad8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying bonds to stimulate the economy&nbsp;or that it’s now signaling three increases in its benchmark lending rate in 2022. Those short-term policy decisions had been well-telegraphed by Fed officials over the past month.<blockquote>美联储周三会议的重大消息并不是它将停止购买债券来刺激经济，也不是它现在暗示将在2022年三次上调基准贷款利率。过去一个月，美联储官员已经充分传达了这些短期政策决定。</blockquote> No, the big surprise is that the gargantuan, change-averse Fed has turned 180 degrees in its view of inflation.<blockquote>不，最令人惊讶的是，庞大的、厌恶变革的美联储对通胀的看法发生了180度的转变。</blockquote> The Fed’s statement&nbsp;Wednesday and the accompanying materials show that the doves — the policy makers who generally believe that the risk of inflation is overblown — have completely surrendered. Everyone’s a hawk now. There are no doves at the Fed anymore.<blockquote>美联储周三的声明和附带的材料表明，鸽派——普遍认为通胀风险被夸大的政策制定者——已经完全投降。现在每个人都是鹰。美联储已经没有鸽派了。</blockquote> Fed monetary-policy makers unanimously agree that fighting inflation is their No. 1 job. They may disagree on the tactics or the timing, but not on the strategy of vanquishing inflation soon. The Fed is on a war footing, and inflation is the enemy.<blockquote>美联储货币政策制定者一致认为，对抗通胀是他们的首要任务。他们可能在策略或时机上存在分歧，但在尽快战胜通胀的策略上却没有分歧。美联储处于战争状态，通胀是敌人。</blockquote> For 30 years, the doves had been right: Inflation wasn’t the biggest threat to the economy; unemployment was. The doves fought an ultimately successful battle to force the Federal Reserve to consider the very real costs that unemployment forces upon society and the many individuals whom the economy was leaving behind.<blockquote>30年来，鸽派一直是对的：通货膨胀不是经济的最大威胁；失业是。鸽派打了一场最终成功的战斗，迫使美联储考虑失业给社会和经济留下的许多个人带来的非常真实的成本。</blockquote> But now effects of the coronavirus pandemic have forced even the doves to accept that inflation is a bigger threat than unemployment. That’s a huge change in an institution that doesn’t like change.<blockquote>但现在，冠状病毒大流行的影响甚至迫使鸽派接受通胀是比失业更大的威胁。对于一个不喜欢变化的机构来说，这是一个巨大的变化。</blockquote> How do we know the doves have metamorphosed into hawks? Look at the dot plot, a chart the Fed releases every three months that shows the anonymous individual forecasts of each monetary-policy maker for the level of the federal funds rate at the ends of the next several years.<blockquote>我们怎么知道鸽子已经变成鹰了？看看点阵图，这是美联储每三个月发布一次的图表，显示了每个货币政策制定者对未来几年底联邦基金利率水平的匿名个人预测。</blockquote> Most analysts correctly focus on the median forecast for the coming year, but I’d like to redirect your attention briefly to the medium-term forecasts of the outliers, the most hawkish and dovish members of the Fed, to show how much the battlefield inside the Fed has changed since that horrendous consumer-price-index reading of Nov. 10. That report changed everything at the Fed.<blockquote>大多数分析师正确地关注来年的预测中值，但我想将您的注意力简要地转移到异常值（美联储最鹰派和鸽派成员）的中期预测上，以显示战场有多大自11月10日可怕的消费者价格指数数据以来，美联储内部发生了变化。那份报告改变了美联储的一切。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc738ce106c9173e3b5b93bf435f87f7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In the latest forecasts released Wednesday, the most hawkish members raised their medium-term forecasts modestly from 1.63% to 2.13% at the end of 2023, and from 2.63% to 3.13% at the end of 2024. The five most hawkish members now think the Fed will have to push the fed funds rate above its assumed long-run equilibrium of 2.5%.<blockquote>在周三发布的最新预测中，最鹰派的成员将2023年底的中期预测从1.63%温和上调至2.13%，2024年底从2.63%上调至3.13%。五位最鹰派的成员现在认为，美联储将不得不将联邦基金利率推高至2.5%的假设长期均衡水平之上。</blockquote> But the doves completely tore up their previous forecasts. The five most dovish members were forecasting between zero and two rate hikes by the end of 2023, but now they expect four or five. By the end of 2024, they had been forecasting between two and four rate hikes; now they expect seven.<blockquote>但是鸽派彻底撕毁了他们之前的预测。五位最鸽派的成员此前预测，到2023年底，加息幅度将在零到两次之间，但现在他们预计加息四到五次。到2024年底，他们一直预测加息两到四次；现在他们预计是七个。</blockquote> Clearly, even the most dovish Fed officials now believe&nbsp;the fed funds rate must go up a lot to vanquish inflation. Before, they thought inflation would come down all by itself.<blockquote>显然，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员现在也认为，联邦基金利率必须大幅上升才能战胜通胀。以前，他们认为通货膨胀会自行下降。</blockquote> This means that inflation no longer gets the benefit of the doubt. It’s been proven guilty, and even the doves will prosecute the war until victory is won. For the inflation doves at the Fed, Nov. 10, 2021, was bit of like Dec. 7, 1941: Time to go to war.<blockquote>这意味着通货膨胀不再受益。它被证明是有罪的，即使是鸽派也会继续战争，直到取得胜利。对于美联储通胀鸽派来说，2021年11月10日有点像1941年12月7日：是时候开战了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172070133","content_text":"The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out\n\nThe big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying bonds to stimulate the economy or that it’s now signaling three increases in its benchmark lending rate in 2022. Those short-term policy decisions had been well-telegraphed by Fed officials over the past month.\nNo, the big surprise is that the gargantuan, change-averse Fed has turned 180 degrees in its view of inflation.\nThe Fed’s statement Wednesday and the accompanying materials show that the doves — the policy makers who generally believe that the risk of inflation is overblown — have completely surrendered. Everyone’s a hawk now. There are no doves at the Fed anymore.\nFed monetary-policy makers unanimously agree that fighting inflation is their No. 1 job. They may disagree on the tactics or the timing, but not on the strategy of vanquishing inflation soon. The Fed is on a war footing, and inflation is the enemy.\nFor 30 years, the doves had been right: Inflation wasn’t the biggest threat to the economy; unemployment was. The doves fought an ultimately successful battle to force the Federal Reserve to consider the very real costs that unemployment forces upon society and the many individuals whom the economy was leaving behind.\nBut now effects of the coronavirus pandemic have forced even the doves to accept that inflation is a bigger threat than unemployment. That’s a huge change in an institution that doesn’t like change.\nHow do we know the doves have metamorphosed into hawks? Look at the dot plot, a chart the Fed releases every three months that shows the anonymous individual forecasts of each monetary-policy maker for the level of the federal funds rate at the ends of the next several years.\nMost analysts correctly focus on the median forecast for the coming year, but I’d like to redirect your attention briefly to the medium-term forecasts of the outliers, the most hawkish and dovish members of the Fed, to show how much the battlefield inside the Fed has changed since that horrendous consumer-price-index reading of Nov. 10. That report changed everything at the Fed.\n\nIn the latest forecasts released Wednesday, the most hawkish members raised their medium-term forecasts modestly from 1.63% to 2.13% at the end of 2023, and from 2.63% to 3.13% at the end of 2024. The five most hawkish members now think the Fed will have to push the fed funds rate above its assumed long-run equilibrium of 2.5%.\nBut the doves completely tore up their previous forecasts. The five most dovish members were forecasting between zero and two rate hikes by the end of 2023, but now they expect four or five. By the end of 2024, they had been forecasting between two and four rate hikes; now they expect seven.\nClearly, even the most dovish Fed officials now believe the fed funds rate must go up a lot to vanquish inflation. Before, they thought inflation would come down all by itself.\nThis means that inflation no longer gets the benefit of the doubt. It’s been proven guilty, and even the doves will prosecute the war until victory is won. For the inflation doves at the Fed, Nov. 10, 2021, was bit of like Dec. 7, 1941: Time to go to war.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

All the doves at the Fed have become hawks<blockquote>美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派</blockquote>

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