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2022-01-10

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Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?

Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":694391913,"tweetId":"694391913","gmtCreate":1641806328163,"gmtModify":1641806328363,"author":{"id":3560092322694803,"idStr":"3560092322694803","authorId":3560092322694803,"authorIdStr":"3560092322694803","name":"dahae","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137beae1f6048901843924ba46796740","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Qqqqq</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Qqqqq</body></html>","text":"Qqqqq","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694391913","repostId":1199490797,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199490797","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641828722,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199490797?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-10 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199490797","media":"Barrons","summary":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?","content":"<html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.<blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.<blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.<blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.<blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.<blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.<blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.<blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.<blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.<blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.<blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.<blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.<blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.<blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.<blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”<blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.<blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.<blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-01-10 23:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.<blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.<blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.<blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.<blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.<blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.<blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.<blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.<blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.<blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.<blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.<blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.<blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.<blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.<blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”<blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.<blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.<blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1199490797","content_text":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4227,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>

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