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Sureshmaghi
2021-12-27

Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote>

Summary Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day. The rally was probably due

Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":696307405,"tweetId":"696307405","gmtCreate":1640614518663,"gmtModify":1640614518760,"author":{"id":3582328341996873,"idStr":"3582328341996873","authorId":3582328341996873,"authorIdStr":"3582328341996873","name":"Sureshmaghi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f24399a2b49fd04a19b3004929417909","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Pp</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Pp</body></html>","text":"Pp","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696307405","repostId":1168370421,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168370421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640607614,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168370421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168370421","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.</li> <li>The rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.</li> <li>Most likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cccfdfe04ca23523841d6775bbb072\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1075\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Georgijevic/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>美光科技股价最近单日上涨10.5%。</li><li>此次上涨可能是由于该公司前一天发布的出色财报。</li><li>最有可能的是，美光科技将继续上涨，因为对其产品的需求只会不断增长。</li></ul>Georgijevic/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Micron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.<blockquote>美光科技(MU)股价周二大幅上涨，单交易日上涨10.5%。周四又上涨5%，本周上涨15.66%。此次反弹是在收入和利润均超出预期的强劲财报发布后立即发生的。本季度收入为76.9亿美元（超出1000万美元），每股收益为2.16美元（超出0.02美元）。每股收益的增长令人印象深刻，因为它表明上一季度的惊人增长并非侥幸。</blockquote> For the&nbsp;fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.<blockquote>第四季度，美光科技收入同比增长37%，盈利同比增长175%。这是一项令人难以置信的成就，很少有人看到该公司复制。幸运的是，事实确实如此，2022财年第一季度的结果非常相似。美光科技第一季度的收入增长几乎与第四季度的增长一样强劲，而且其盈利增长实际上略好一些，高达177%。</blockquote> Clearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.<blockquote>显然，美光科技已经度过了几个出色的季度。第四季度和第一季度的盈利都实现了三位数的增长，前景也很强劲。该公司预测DRAM需求增长20%，NAND需求增长30%。该公司预计每个类别的出货量增长将与行业增长保持一致。由此可见，假设价格不上涨，美光预计收入将增长20%至30%。</blockquote> It’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has&nbsp;multiples similar to Micron’s, with&nbsp;similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.<blockquote>这是一幅非常美好的画面。而一些投资者认为，这仅仅是一个开始。像李录和Mohnish Pabrai这样的传奇价值投资者正在重仓美光，认为内存板块被低估了。事实上，如果微米有任何迹象的话，确实如此。即使在周二大幅上涨之后，该股的市盈率也仅为12倍。按照科技股的标准，它超级便宜。这是少数几种你可以独自接触内存行业的方式之一，没有其他技术内容。三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）是最大的内存玩家，但它不是纯粹的游戏。SK海力士（OTC：HXSCF）是一家纯粹的公司，其市盈率与美光科技相似，增长也相似。这给我们留下了基本上两种纯游戏内存股票可供选择。而且都很便宜。因此，如果你正在寻找非常便宜的科技游戏，内存就是你想要的。</blockquote> Micron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its&nbsp;revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.<blockquote>美光在内存行业处于有利地位。在美国禁止向中国出口芯片后，它经受住了华为业务的损失，证明了自己的勇气，并以强劲的资产负债表从磨难中恢复过来。在2020年收入下降8%后，美光科技不仅与2020年相比，而且与2019年相比，都恢复了强劲的同比增长。看起来美光科技的一切都在全速前进。因此，我将在本文中对该股提出看涨论点，认为其独特的增长和价值特征组合使其值得买入。</blockquote> Memory Industry Factors<blockquote>存储器行业因素</blockquote> Before looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.<blockquote>在了解MU自身的基本面之前，我们需要先了解该公司所处的行业。美光预测其增长将跟随行业趋势，因此我们需要了解内存行业的情况。</blockquote> The DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to&nbsp;Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with&nbsp;more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.<blockquote>DRAM行业基本上是美光、三星和SK海力士之间的寡头垄断。根据Statista的数据，三星以42%领先，SK海力士以29%排名第二，美光以23%排名第三。还有其他参与者，但他们的市场份额太小，不值一提，其中最大的只有3.3%。NAND闪存存储的情况略有不同，主要参与者更多，但美光在该领域也拥有10%的份额。</blockquote> So, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.<blockquote>因此，美光是内存行业的顶级参与者。它不是第一名，但它是该领域排名前两位的纯戏剧之一。它在行业中的强势地位是无可争议的。问题是这个行业自身的前景是否强劲。</blockquote> Micron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.<blockquote>不出所料，美光认为他们是。除了预测其垂直行业将增长20%-30%外，该公司还预计长期复合年增长率将在十几岁到30%之间。如果它成为现实，那将是一个好消息。也就是说，你会期望一家公司说它的行业很强大。所以我们可能想在这里看看一些第三方的意见。</blockquote> The market research firm Verified Market Research&nbsp;expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.<blockquote>市场研究公司Verified Market Research预计DRAM行业将增长8.7%。这是美光内部对DRAM需求预测的一半多一点。美光科技的复合年增长率为8.7%，其增长速度将比现在慢，尽管对于市盈率为11的股票来说，这并不是一个糟糕的增长。许多银行股都比这更贵，8.7%的收入增长对于银行来说是辉煌的一年。</blockquote> As for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:<blockquote>至于NAND，我能够找到从11%CAGR（魔多情报）到22%（估值报告）的预测。同样，这些与美光的乐观预测不符，但它们本身却相当乐观。几乎没有人预计内存行业会衰退，大多数组织都预测会出现两位数的增长。当你考虑这些公司为谁服务时，这是有道理的。除了为消费者生产RAM和SD卡/个人固态硬盘外，他们还生产：</blockquote> <ul> <li>RAM for 5G smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>5G智能手机的内存。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>SSDs for data centers.<blockquote><li>用于数据中心的固态硬盘。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Components for computer manufacturers.<blockquote><li>计算机制造商的组件。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing&nbsp;high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.<blockquote>这些都是强劲增长的行业。从2018年到2020年，智能手机的增长略有放缓，但在2021年再次回升。云计算目前是该领域几乎所有公司的巨大增长动力。亚马逊（亚马逊），微软（MSFT）和Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的云业务都实现了两位数的高增长。公司喜欢元平台（FB）不经营云业务，但严重依赖数据中心来运行自己的服务。因此，互联网公司对DRAM和NAND的需求巨大且不断增长。</blockquote> What all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.<blockquote>这一切意味着，强大的行业力量正在推动内存需求的增长。不仅仅是行业本身在增长，它所销售的更大的行业也在增长。这意味着有理由认为内存行业的强劲增长将持续下去。只要智能手机仍然流行，数据中心仍然必要，就会有对内存的需求。美光是供应它的三家领先公司之一。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务和估值</blockquote> Having looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.<blockquote>在了解了美光科技的行业地位后，我们现在可以转向其财务状况和估值。</blockquote> Micron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.<blockquote>从广义上讲，美光科技是一家高利润、快速增长的企业，估值极具吸引力。这是我见过的少数几只在Seeking Alpha Quant的四个因素（增长、盈利能力、动量和估值）上得分为“A”或更高的股票之一，快速浏览一下该公司的财务数据就会明白为什么会这样。</blockquote> First, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:<blockquote>首先，让我们看看最近一个季度的收益。第一季度，美光科技交付：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).<blockquote><ul><li>收入76.8亿美元，同比增长33%（但环比下降7%）。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>营业收入26亿美元，同比增长203%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>净利润：23亿美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：2.16美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>运营现金：39亿美元，同比增长100%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。不仅增长强劲，盈利能力也很强。收入为76亿美元，盈利为26亿美元，净利润率为33%。极高。该公司在此期间拥有450亿美元的股本。尽管Seeking Alpha Quants显示过去12个月的ROE为17%，但股本回报率为5.77%，并不令人印象深刻。因此，我们在最近一段时间获得了不错的收益和盈利能力。</blockquote> The same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:<blockquote>过去五年也是如此。在过去五年中，MU在部分指标上的复合年增长率为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>18% in revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>收入的18%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>90% in operating income.<blockquote><li>营业收入的90%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>118% in ROE.<blockquote><li>净资产收益率为118%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were&nbsp;negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.<blockquote>不幸的是，我们无法对净利润或每股收益进行五年复合年增长率计算，因为这些数字在2016年为负值。然而，如果我们从2015年开始进行六年复合年增长率计算，我们会得到每股收益的六年复合年增长率为16%。不像最近一个季度那么强劲，但仍然非常强劲。</blockquote> So we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s&nbsp;more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s&nbsp;status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.<blockquote>因此，美光科技的财务状况和增长非常强劲。该公司面临的一个打击是盈利波动。正如您从上面注意到的，2016年的盈利为负。此外，它们在2018年达到顶峰，然后在2019年和2020年再次下降——主要是由于华为的损失。这一切都反映在该股的价格历史中：它的波动性高于平均水平，贝塔系数为1.15。简而言之，这只股票不适合胆小的人。美光科技的盈利在其历史上波动剧烈，而且这种情况不会很快停止。RAM价格波动很大，可能会出现大规模的繁荣和萧条。这是RAM作为商品地位的一部分：公司从所有供应商那里批量购买，当数量过多时通常会停止购买。这导致价格随着订单突然开始和停止而上下波动。就像石油或煤炭一样，公司有时只是坐拥太多内存而无法购买更多。</blockquote> With all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.<blockquote>综上所述，这些因素已经很好地反映在美光科技的股票中。按今天的价格计算，美光的调整后市盈率为12倍，GAAP市盈率为14.6倍，销售额为3.57倍，账面价值为2.3倍，运营现金流为7.3倍。对于高增长科技股来说，这些市盈率基本上是非常便宜的。虽然像美光这样的公司不能指望盈利稳步攀升而永不下降，但随着对手机、数据中心和笔记本电脑需求的增长，它应该继续为股东提供更多价值。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.<blockquote>美光科技15.6%的一周涨幅并非侥幸。这是一只廉价股票的预期结果，该股票处于有利地位，可以从当前的科技趋势中获利，盈利超出预期，市盈率较低。截至2021年12月，DRAM和NAND flash的需求预计将保持增长。美光内部20%-30%的预测是否会达到还有待观察，但更温和的预测看涨期权的增长将在10%以上。因此，美光的业务应该会从这里继续增长。盈利增长当然会从最近的175%放缓，但至少在几年内应该会保持强劲。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-27 20:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.</li> <li>The rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.</li> <li>Most likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cccfdfe04ca23523841d6775bbb072\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1075\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Georgijevic/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>美光科技股价最近单日上涨10.5%。</li><li>此次上涨可能是由于该公司前一天发布的出色财报。</li><li>最有可能的是，美光科技将继续上涨，因为对其产品的需求只会不断增长。</li></ul>Georgijevic/E+来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Micron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.<blockquote>美光科技(MU)股价周二大幅上涨，单交易日上涨10.5%。周四又上涨5%，本周上涨15.66%。此次反弹是在收入和利润均超出预期的强劲财报发布后立即发生的。本季度收入为76.9亿美元（超出1000万美元），每股收益为2.16美元（超出0.02美元）。每股收益的增长令人印象深刻，因为它表明上一季度的惊人增长并非侥幸。</blockquote> For the&nbsp;fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.<blockquote>第四季度，美光科技收入同比增长37%，盈利同比增长175%。这是一项令人难以置信的成就，很少有人看到该公司复制。幸运的是，事实确实如此，2022财年第一季度的结果非常相似。美光科技第一季度的收入增长几乎与第四季度的增长一样强劲，而且其盈利增长实际上略好一些，高达177%。</blockquote> Clearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.<blockquote>显然，美光科技已经度过了几个出色的季度。第四季度和第一季度的盈利都实现了三位数的增长，前景也很强劲。该公司预测DRAM需求增长20%，NAND需求增长30%。该公司预计每个类别的出货量增长将与行业增长保持一致。由此可见，假设价格不上涨，美光预计收入将增长20%至30%。</blockquote> It’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has&nbsp;multiples similar to Micron’s, with&nbsp;similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.<blockquote>这是一幅非常美好的画面。而一些投资者认为，这仅仅是一个开始。像李录和Mohnish Pabrai这样的传奇价值投资者正在重仓美光，认为内存板块被低估了。事实上，如果微米有任何迹象的话，确实如此。即使在周二大幅上涨之后，该股的市盈率也仅为12倍。按照科技股的标准，它超级便宜。这是少数几种你可以独自接触内存行业的方式之一，没有其他技术内容。三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）是最大的内存玩家，但它不是纯粹的游戏。SK海力士（OTC：HXSCF）是一家纯粹的公司，其市盈率与美光科技相似，增长也相似。这给我们留下了基本上两种纯游戏内存股票可供选择。而且都很便宜。因此，如果你正在寻找非常便宜的科技游戏，内存就是你想要的。</blockquote> Micron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its&nbsp;revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.<blockquote>美光在内存行业处于有利地位。在美国禁止向中国出口芯片后，它经受住了华为业务的损失，证明了自己的勇气，并以强劲的资产负债表从磨难中恢复过来。在2020年收入下降8%后，美光科技不仅与2020年相比，而且与2019年相比，都恢复了强劲的同比增长。看起来美光科技的一切都在全速前进。因此，我将在本文中对该股提出看涨论点，认为其独特的增长和价值特征组合使其值得买入。</blockquote> Memory Industry Factors<blockquote>存储器行业因素</blockquote> Before looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.<blockquote>在了解MU自身的基本面之前，我们需要先了解该公司所处的行业。美光预测其增长将跟随行业趋势，因此我们需要了解内存行业的情况。</blockquote> The DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to&nbsp;Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with&nbsp;more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.<blockquote>DRAM行业基本上是美光、三星和SK海力士之间的寡头垄断。根据Statista的数据，三星以42%领先，SK海力士以29%排名第二，美光以23%排名第三。还有其他参与者，但他们的市场份额太小，不值一提，其中最大的只有3.3%。NAND闪存存储的情况略有不同，主要参与者更多，但美光在该领域也拥有10%的份额。</blockquote> So, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.<blockquote>因此，美光是内存行业的顶级参与者。它不是第一名，但它是该领域排名前两位的纯戏剧之一。它在行业中的强势地位是无可争议的。问题是这个行业自身的前景是否强劲。</blockquote> Micron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.<blockquote>不出所料，美光认为他们是。除了预测其垂直行业将增长20%-30%外，该公司还预计长期复合年增长率将在十几岁到30%之间。如果它成为现实，那将是一个好消息。也就是说，你会期望一家公司说它的行业很强大。所以我们可能想在这里看看一些第三方的意见。</blockquote> The market research firm Verified Market Research&nbsp;expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.<blockquote>市场研究公司Verified Market Research预计DRAM行业将增长8.7%。这是美光内部对DRAM需求预测的一半多一点。美光科技的复合年增长率为8.7%，其增长速度将比现在慢，尽管对于市盈率为11的股票来说，这并不是一个糟糕的增长。许多银行股都比这更贵，8.7%的收入增长对于银行来说是辉煌的一年。</blockquote> As for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:<blockquote>至于NAND，我能够找到从11%CAGR（魔多情报）到22%（估值报告）的预测。同样，这些与美光的乐观预测不符，但它们本身却相当乐观。几乎没有人预计内存行业会衰退，大多数组织都预测会出现两位数的增长。当你考虑这些公司为谁服务时，这是有道理的。除了为消费者生产RAM和SD卡/个人固态硬盘外，他们还生产：</blockquote> <ul> <li>RAM for 5G smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>5G智能手机的内存。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>SSDs for data centers.<blockquote><li>用于数据中心的固态硬盘。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Components for computer manufacturers.<blockquote><li>计算机制造商的组件。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing&nbsp;high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.<blockquote>这些都是强劲增长的行业。从2018年到2020年，智能手机的增长略有放缓，但在2021年再次回升。云计算目前是该领域几乎所有公司的巨大增长动力。亚马逊（亚马逊），微软（MSFT）和Alphabet（GOOG）（GOOGL）的云业务都实现了两位数的高增长。公司喜欢元平台（FB）不经营云业务，但严重依赖数据中心来运行自己的服务。因此，互联网公司对DRAM和NAND的需求巨大且不断增长。</blockquote> What all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.<blockquote>这一切意味着，强大的行业力量正在推动内存需求的增长。不仅仅是行业本身在增长，它所销售的更大的行业也在增长。这意味着有理由认为内存行业的强劲增长将持续下去。只要智能手机仍然流行，数据中心仍然必要，就会有对内存的需求。美光是供应它的三家领先公司之一。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务和估值</blockquote> Having looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.<blockquote>在了解了美光科技的行业地位后，我们现在可以转向其财务状况和估值。</blockquote> Micron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.<blockquote>从广义上讲，美光科技是一家高利润、快速增长的企业，估值极具吸引力。这是我见过的少数几只在Seeking Alpha Quant的四个因素（增长、盈利能力、动量和估值）上得分为“A”或更高的股票之一，快速浏览一下该公司的财务数据就会明白为什么会这样。</blockquote> First, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:<blockquote>首先，让我们看看最近一个季度的收益。第一季度，美光科技交付：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).<blockquote><ul><li>收入76.8亿美元，同比增长33%（但环比下降7%）。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>营业收入26亿美元，同比增长203%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>净利润：23亿美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：2.16美元，同比增长176%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.<blockquote><li>运营现金：39亿美元，同比增长100%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> These were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。不仅增长强劲，盈利能力也很强。收入为76亿美元，盈利为26亿美元，净利润率为33%。极高。该公司在此期间拥有450亿美元的股本。尽管Seeking Alpha Quants显示过去12个月的ROE为17%，但股本回报率为5.77%，并不令人印象深刻。因此，我们在最近一段时间获得了不错的收益和盈利能力。</blockquote> The same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:<blockquote>过去五年也是如此。在过去五年中，MU在部分指标上的复合年增长率为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>18% in revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>收入的18%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>90% in operating income.<blockquote><li>营业收入的90%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>118% in ROE.<blockquote><li>净资产收益率为118%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Unfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were&nbsp;negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.<blockquote>不幸的是，我们无法对净利润或每股收益进行五年复合年增长率计算，因为这些数字在2016年为负值。然而，如果我们从2015年开始进行六年复合年增长率计算，我们会得到每股收益的六年复合年增长率为16%。不像最近一个季度那么强劲，但仍然非常强劲。</blockquote> So we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s&nbsp;more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s&nbsp;status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.<blockquote>因此，美光科技的财务状况和增长非常强劲。该公司面临的一个打击是盈利波动。正如您从上面注意到的，2016年的盈利为负。此外，它们在2018年达到顶峰，然后在2019年和2020年再次下降——主要是由于华为的损失。这一切都反映在该股的价格历史中：它的波动性高于平均水平，贝塔系数为1.15。简而言之，这只股票不适合胆小的人。美光科技的盈利在其历史上波动剧烈，而且这种情况不会很快停止。RAM价格波动很大，可能会出现大规模的繁荣和萧条。这是RAM作为商品地位的一部分：公司从所有供应商那里批量购买，当数量过多时通常会停止购买。这导致价格随着订单突然开始和停止而上下波动。就像石油或煤炭一样，公司有时只是坐拥太多内存而无法购买更多。</blockquote> With all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.<blockquote>综上所述，这些因素已经很好地反映在美光科技的股票中。按今天的价格计算，美光的调整后市盈率为12倍，GAAP市盈率为14.6倍，销售额为3.57倍，账面价值为2.3倍，运营现金流为7.3倍。对于高增长科技股来说，这些市盈率基本上是非常便宜的。虽然像美光这样的公司不能指望盈利稳步攀升而永不下降，但随着对手机、数据中心和笔记本电脑需求的增长，它应该继续为股东提供更多价值。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Micron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.<blockquote>美光科技15.6%的一周涨幅并非侥幸。这是一只廉价股票的预期结果，该股票处于有利地位，可以从当前的科技趋势中获利，盈利超出预期，市盈率较低。截至2021年12月，DRAM和NAND flash的需求预计将保持增长。美光内部20%-30%的预测是否会达到还有待观察，但更温和的预测看涨期权的增长将在10%以上。因此，美光的业务应该会从这里继续增长。盈利增长当然会从最近的175%放缓，但至少在几年内应该会保持强劲。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168370421","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.\nMost likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.\n\nGeorgijevic/E+ via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.\nFor the fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.\nClearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.\nIt’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has multiples similar to Micron’s, with similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.\nMicron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.\nMemory Industry Factors\nBefore looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.\nThe DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.\nSo, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.\nMicron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.\nThe market research firm Verified Market Research expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.\nAs for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:\n\nRAM for 5G smartphones.\nSSDs for data centers.\nComponents for computer manufacturers.\n\nThese are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.\nWhat all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.\nFinancials and Valuation\nHaving looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.\nMicron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.\nFirst, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:\n\n$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).\n$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.\nNet income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.\nDiluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.\nCash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.\n\nThese were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.\nThe same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:\n\n18% in revenue.\n90% in operating income.\n118% in ROE.\n\nUnfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.\nSo we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.\nWith all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.\nThe Bottom Line\nMicron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies<blockquote>美光科技：预计会有更多反弹</blockquote>

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