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2021-12-29

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Peloton Has Slumped in 2021. Google Search Trends Don’t Improve the Stock’s Outlook

Peloton Interactive has shed three quarters of its value since the start of 2021. An analyst at Raym

Peloton Has Slumped in 2021. Google Search Trends Don’t Improve the Stock’s Outlook

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The subscriptions were a hit amid lockdowns, but the reopening has shown signs of waning demand. A disappointing outlook released in November triggered the latest selloff.</p><p>Not even concerns about the Omicron variant of Covid-19 have been enough to send shares back to late-2020 levels. Some high-profile public relations flops, including a post-ride death in the Sex &amp; the City reboot, haven’t helped.</p><p>Curious whether Peloton demand this holiday season has spiked, Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler took a look at Google search data. Based on softer-than-expected trends, Kessler believes the company’s outlook for 308,000 to 358,000 net added connected fitness subscribers in the December quarter may be too aggressive.</p><p>“Historically, Google Search Trends data has correlated well with Peloton hardware sales,” Kessler wrote in a note. “Based on our updated analysis, the search trends data indicates continued softening of demand for Peloton sales in the December quarter.”</p><p>U.S. search trends were down 30% year over year so far in the December quarter, compared to a 31% decline in the September quarter. U.K. searches slowed 40% year over year, while Germany searches were down 58%. One bright sign was Australia, where searches were up 213% year over year from a low base last year.</p><p>Kessler rates Peloton at Market Perform. He doesn’t have a price target, but estimates a fair value at $38. If Peloton revenue growth recovers more than he expects, he could see a $51 fair value, though that’s a bull case. 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Google Search Trends Don’t Improve the Stock’s Outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-29 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/peloton-has-slumped-in-2021-google-search-trends-dont-improve-the-stocks-outlook-51640720783?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Peloton Interactive has shed three quarters of its value since the start of 2021. An analyst at Raymond James isn’t so sure the new year will change things.Shares of Peloton (ticker: were down 2.8% to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/peloton-has-slumped-in-2021-google-search-trends-dont-improve-the-stocks-outlook-51640720783?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/peloton-has-slumped-in-2021-google-search-trends-dont-improve-the-stocks-outlook-51640720783?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1157701450","content_text":"Peloton Interactive has shed three quarters of its value since the start of 2021. An analyst at Raymond James isn’t so sure the new year will change things.Shares of Peloton (ticker: were down 2.8% to $35.68 on Tuesday. If they close at that level, it would be the lowest close since May 4, 2020, when the stock hit $33.90. Peloton shares have fallen 77% year to date, as investors have fled from high-flying pandemic plays that seemed to see inflated demand amid Covid-19 shutdowns.The company’s connected fitness subscription costs $39.99 a month to link Peloton classes and data tracking to its branded equipment. The subscriptions were a hit amid lockdowns, but the reopening has shown signs of waning demand. A disappointing outlook released in November triggered the latest selloff.Not even concerns about the Omicron variant of Covid-19 have been enough to send shares back to late-2020 levels. Some high-profile public relations flops, including a post-ride death in the Sex & the City reboot, haven’t helped.Curious whether Peloton demand this holiday season has spiked, Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler took a look at Google search data. Based on softer-than-expected trends, Kessler believes the company’s outlook for 308,000 to 358,000 net added connected fitness subscribers in the December quarter may be too aggressive.“Historically, Google Search Trends data has correlated well with Peloton hardware sales,” Kessler wrote in a note. “Based on our updated analysis, the search trends data indicates continued softening of demand for Peloton sales in the December quarter.”U.S. search trends were down 30% year over year so far in the December quarter, compared to a 31% decline in the September quarter. U.K. searches slowed 40% year over year, while Germany searches were down 58%. One bright sign was Australia, where searches were up 213% year over year from a low base last year.Kessler rates Peloton at Market Perform. He doesn’t have a price target, but estimates a fair value at $38. If Peloton revenue growth recovers more than he expects, he could see a $51 fair value, though that’s a bull case. In his bear case scenario, a more significant slowdown leads shares down to $27.“We continue to believe significant demand was pulled forward during the pandemic and as such sales are not seeing the typical seasonality that we would expect,” Kessler wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Peloton Has Slumped in 2021. Google Search Trends Don’t Improve the Stock’s Outlook

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