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2021-07-26

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GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>

Summary GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion

GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":800649063,"tweetId":"800649063","gmtCreate":1627300979052,"gmtModify":1633766387431,"author":{"id":3562130752693399,"idStr":"3562130752693399","authorId":3562130752693399,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800649063","repostId":1193811590,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193811590","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627298505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193811590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193811590","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li> <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li> <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li> <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> GME Mania<blockquote>GME狂热</blockquote> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.<blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.<blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.<blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote> The Business<blockquote>业务</blockquote> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.<blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).<blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.<blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Not Exactly Like Blockbuster<blockquote>不太像百视达</blockquote> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.<blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PlayStation.com<blockquote>来源：PlayStation.com</blockquote> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.<blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.<blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote> Console Makers<blockquote>游戏机制造商</blockquote> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.<blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.<blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft.com<blockquote>微软</blockquote> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.<blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.<blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.<blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.<blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.<blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote> Uncertain Future<blockquote>不确定的未来</blockquote> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.<blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.<blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.<blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">GameStop.com<blockquote>GameStop.com</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amazon.com<blockquote>亚马逊</blockquote> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.<blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.<blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础成为因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.<blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.<blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.<blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.<blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote> GME Still Isn't A Short<blockquote>GME仍然不是空头</blockquote> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.<blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.<blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.<blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.<blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.<blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.<blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-26 19:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li> <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li> <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li> <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> GME Mania<blockquote>GME狂热</blockquote> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.<blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.<blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.<blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote> The Business<blockquote>业务</blockquote> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.<blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).<blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.<blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Not Exactly Like Blockbuster<blockquote>不太像百视达</blockquote> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.<blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PlayStation.com<blockquote>来源：PlayStation.com</blockquote> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.<blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.<blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote> Console Makers<blockquote>游戏机制造商</blockquote> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.<blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.<blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft.com<blockquote>微软</blockquote> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.<blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.<blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.<blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.<blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.<blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote> Uncertain Future<blockquote>不确定的未来</blockquote> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.<blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.<blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.<blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">GameStop.com<blockquote>GameStop.com</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amazon.com<blockquote>亚马逊</blockquote> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.<blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.<blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础成为因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.<blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.<blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.<blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.<blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote> GME Still Isn't A Short<blockquote>GME仍然不是空头</blockquote> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.<blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.<blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.<blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.<blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.<blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.<blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193811590","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.\nThe influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.\nBut GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.\nUnless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.\n\nBrandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGME Mania\nThe short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.\nThat's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent $1.1 billion they raised.\nData by YCharts\nTheir immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.\nThe Business\nGameStop's core business is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.\nPhysical videogame discs have been in decline for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the start of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).\nThe trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.\nData by YCharts\nNot Exactly Like Blockbuster\nThe trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.\nSource: PlayStation.com\nFirst, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.\nThe case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.\nConsole Makers\nConsole developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.\nA significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month Xbox Game Pass that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.\nMicrosoft.com\nGamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.\nAnother argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.\nAn additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.\nOn top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.\nThe biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.\nUncertain Future\nThe problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.\nWith so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.\nEven thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.\nGameStop.com\nAmazon.com\nYou can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.\nA lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.\nValuation\nA long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.\nData by YCharts\nGameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.\nBest Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.\nGameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.\nGME Still Isn't A Short\nEven though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.\nIf GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.\nAt some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.\nEven if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.\nConclusion\nThe meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.\nIf you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2244,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}