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2021-07-26

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Forget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth<blockquote>忘记云，YouTube将引领Alphabet实现指数级增长</blockquote>

Summary Google continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.

Forget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth<blockquote>忘记云，YouTube将引领Alphabet实现指数级增长</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":800654782,"tweetId":"800654782","gmtCreate":1627300867046,"gmtModify":1633766389391,"author":{"id":3587018644163069,"idStr":"3587018644163069","authorId":3587018644163069,"authorIdStr":"3587018644163069","name":"Memyself","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12b052fd7ed8d5f2b102c19249271320","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800654782","repostId":1116690230,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116690230","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627285542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116690230?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 15:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth<blockquote>忘记云，YouTube将引领Alphabet实现指数级增长</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116690230","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGoogle continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Google continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.</li> <li>The YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization.</li> <li>Our forecast suggests Google could bring in over $1 trillion in revenues by 2030 with a $14,000 share price.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc76d8cff230ecce9779683bdf577ed\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lauren Nicole/DigitalVision via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>谷歌继续实现出色的增长，YouTube是表现最好的细分市场。</li><li>YouTube平台将继续增长，并进一步增加用户货币化。</li><li>我们的预测表明，到2030年，谷歌的收入可能会超过1万亿美元，股价为14,000美元。</li></ul>劳伦·妮可/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL) has been one of the best-performing companies and stocks of the last decade. The company makes most of its revenue from search ads, but it has faster growing and more promising segments, such as “YouTube'' and “Cloud”. While most investors focus on the potential of Cloud, I believe that revenue from YouTube ads and YouTube subscriptions is the key factor that will allow the company to outperform, maintain a premium valuation, and ultimately reach a price of $14,000 with revenues of +$1 trillion.<blockquote>Alphabet公司（GOOG）（GOOGL）是过去十年中表现最好的公司和股票之一。该公司的大部分收入来自搜索广告，但它有增长更快、更有前途的细分市场，例如“YouTube”和“云”。虽然大多数投资者都关注云的潜力，但我相信YouTube广告和YouTube订阅的收入是使该公司跑赢大盘、维持溢价估值并最终达到14,000美元价格、收入超过1万亿美元的关键因素。</blockquote> YouTube in Numbers<blockquote>YouTube的数字</blockquote> YouTube was originally conceived by three ex PayPal (PYPL) employees in 2005 and quickly acquired by Google in 2006 for $1.65 billion. WhenYouTube began, it received around 30,000 views per day. Today, it is the second most popular website in the world, with over 30 million visitors per day and 300 hours of content uploaded every minute.<blockquote>YouTube最初是由三名前PayPal(PYPL)员工于2005年构思的，并于2006年迅速被谷歌以16.5亿美元收购。当YouTube开始时，它每天收到大约30,000次浏览。今天，它是世界上第二大最受欢迎的网站，每天有超过3000万访问者，每分钟上传300小时的内容。</blockquote> YouTube’s growth since its inception has been staggering, and, in terms of revenue, it is actually Google’s fastest-growing segment as of the last quarter:<blockquote>YouTube自成立以来的增长令人震惊，就收入而言，它实际上是谷歌上季度增长最快的部门：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac38e8a4000826c38acb02a73c62652b\" tg-width=\"1178\" tg-height=\"950\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:10-Q<blockquote>资料来源：10-Q</blockquote> Google Search &amp; Other is where the bulk of revenue comes from, and this segment grew at a rate of 30% YoY.YouTube Ads, which accounts for a little over 10% of overall revenues, grew to the tune of 48.7%. This growth rate is even higher than Google Cloud, which increased by 45.73%. Furthermore, we must also take into account that theYouTube platform is also responsible for part of the revenues contained in Google Other. This segment includes revenues fromYouTube’s subscription services such asYouTube TV andYouTube Premium.<blockquote>Google搜索和其他是大部分收入的来源，该细分市场同比增长30%。YouTube广告占总收入的10%多一点，增长了48.7%。这一增速甚至高于谷歌云，后者增长了45.73%。此外，我们还必须考虑到，YouTube平台也负责Google Other中包含的部分收入。该部门包括YouTube TV和YouTube Premium等YouTube订阅服务的收入。</blockquote> Looking solely at the numbers, it is clear thatYouTube is a key segment driving growth in the company. But what can we expect ofYouTube going forward? And what makes it better than the competition?<blockquote>仅从数字来看，很明显YouTube是推动公司增长的关键细分市场。但是我们对YouTube的未来有什么期待呢？是什么让它比竞争对手更好？</blockquote> What makesYouTube a great business?<blockquote>是什么造就了YouTube是一个伟大的企业？</blockquote> In a previous&nbsp;article on Visa(V), I discussed how the company showcases the 7 different business moats that Hamilton Helmer puts forward in his book&nbsp;7 Powers. Looking atYouTube, we can also identify these compelling moats, which protect it from the competition and set it apart from other businesses.<blockquote>在之前关于Visa(V)的文章中，我讨论了该公司如何展示汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)在其著作《7种权力》中提出的7种不同的商业护城河。看看YouTube，我们还可以发现这些引人注目的护城河，这些护城河保护它免受竞争并将其与其他企业区分开来。</blockquote> Scale and Network Effect<blockquote>规模与网络效应</blockquote> Due to the nature of the platform,YouTube enjoys both scale and network effects.YouTube can add more users without hardly increasing its costs. There may be some costs associated with hosting and even regulating content, but it is negligible. Any competitor wanting to enter this space would have to spend a considerable amount, just to get anywhere near having the infrastructure and contentYouTube has.<blockquote>由于平台的性质，YouTube同时享有规模效应和网络效应。YouTube可以在几乎不增加成本的情况下增加更多用户。托管甚至监管内容可能会有一些成本，但可以忽略不计。任何想要进入这个领域的竞争对手都必须花费大量资金，才能接近YouTube所拥有的基础设施和内容。</blockquote> On top of that, with every new user/creator, the value of the network increases. The more people upload onYouTube, the more content there is available, which leads to more views and in turn, leads to more incentives to upload content toYouTube.<blockquote>最重要的是，随着每一个新用户/创建者，网络的价值都会增加。上传到YouTube的人越多，可用的内容就越多，这会导致更多的浏览量，反过来，也会导致更多的动机将内容上传到YouTube。</blockquote> Switching costs and Branding<blockquote>转换成本和品牌</blockquote> As far users go, there are indeed no real switching costs, but these come into play for creators. Those who have built a following onYouTube have strong incentives to continue growing their audience on the platform. Ultimately,YouTube offers both a compelling reward system for creators and access to the largest audience the internet has to offer.<blockquote>就用户而言，确实没有真正的转换成本，但这些成本对创作者来说会发挥作用。那些在YouTube上建立了追随者的人有强烈的动机继续在该平台上增加他们的观众。最终，YouTube为创作者提供了一个引人注目的奖励系统，并接触到了互联网所能提供的最大受众。</blockquote> As far as branding goes, we could certainly say thatYouTube excels in this arena. This can be seen by the fact thatYouTube has even become a commonly used verb and “YouTuber” is even used as a job title.YouTube is the go-to place around the world if you want to find any form of video content.<blockquote>就品牌而言，我们可以肯定地说YouTube在这一领域表现出色。这可以从YouTube甚至成为一个常用的动词，“YouTuber”甚至被用作一个职位头衔这一事实中看出。如果你想找到任何形式的视频内容，YouTube是世界各地的首选。</blockquote> Counter positioning and Process Power<blockquote>计数器定位和过程功率</blockquote> Counter-positioning refers to the idea that a company has a disruptive business model that others can’t copy. In this case, we have to think, is there a business model which could compete withYouTube and that the company can’t copy/absorb?<blockquote>反向定位是指认为一家公司拥有别人无法复制的颠覆性商业模式。在这种情况下，我们不得不思考，有没有一种商业模式可以与YouTube竞争，而该公司无法复制/吸收？</blockquote> We actually have a perfect example of this happening in how companies likeSpotify(SPOT) are trying to compete with Google by offering content through subscriptions. However, in the last few years, we have seenYouTube launch its own subscription options, competing head-on with Spotify. Furthermore, Google also can absorb any competitor that it deems it can’t compete with head-on.<blockquote>事实上，我们有一个很好的例子，像Spotify(SPOT)这样的公司试图通过订阅提供内容来与谷歌竞争。然而，在过去几年中，我们看到YouTube推出了自己的订阅选项，与Spotify正面竞争。此外，谷歌还可以吸收任何它认为无法正面竞争的竞争对手。</blockquote> Process power can be defined as “embedded company organisation and activity sets which enable lower costs and/or superior product.” In the case ofYouTube, the “process power” is their algorithm and access to data, which allows them to serve both optimal content and advertising. Google’s access to data is unrivalled, and this is what allows it to be much more efficient.<blockquote>流程能力可以定义为“嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品。”就YouTube而言，“处理能力”是他们的算法和对数据的访问，这使他们能够提供最佳内容和广告。谷歌对数据的访问是无与伦比的，这也是它效率更高的原因。</blockquote> Cornered resource<blockquote>被垄断的资源</blockquote> Lastly, we have the cornered resource. This means having exclusive access to a valuable resource. Patents are an example of this. In the case ofYouTube, there are a few elements that we could call cornered resources. The data that Google has access to, could be an example of this. Another exclusive resource thatYouTube has is its “YouTubers”. These individuals are providing content to Google for free daily. This content can indeed find its way to other platforms, butYouTube offers these creators attractive payment terms and a huge audience.<blockquote>最后，我们有被垄断的资源。这意味着拥有对有价值资源的独占访问权。专利就是一个例子。就YouTube而言，有一些元素我们可以看涨期权垄断资源。谷歌可以访问的数据可能就是一个例子。YouTube拥有的另一个独家资源是它的“YouTubers”。这些人每天免费向谷歌提供内容。这些内容确实可以到达其他平台，但YouTube为这些创作者提供了有吸引力的支付条件和庞大的受众。</blockquote> The future of&nbsp;YouTube Revenues<blockquote>的未来 YouTube收入</blockquote> The only question that remains to be answered, is how will Google best monetizeYouTube? For the time being,YouTube’s main source of revenue is advertising. In recent quarters, the company has found particular success with direct-response ads, which create a sense of urgency and have a clear call-to-action.<blockquote>唯一有待回答的问题是，谷歌将如何最好地将YouTube货币化？就目前而言，YouTube的主要收入来源是广告。最近几个季度，该公司在直接响应广告方面取得了特别成功，这种广告营造了一种紧迫感，并具有明确的行动看涨期权。</blockquote> In terms of advertising, what setsYouTube apart though, is its incredibly powerful AI, and it can offer something that traditional TV just can’t do. This was best described by Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster:<blockquote>在广告方面，YouTube的与众不同之处在于其令人难以置信的强大人工智能，它可以提供传统电视无法提供的东西。Loup Ventures管理合伙人Gene Munster对此进行了最好的描述：</blockquote> YouTube is now best positioned to deliver on something we’ve talked about for a decade, which is two people watching the same live event but getting different ads. Source:CNBC<blockquote>YouTube现在最有能力提供我们已经谈论了十年的东西，即两个人观看同一个直播活动，但收到不同的广告。资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> YouTube is known for its user-generated content, but it’s just a matter of time before it moves into areas such as live sports and TV shows.<blockquote>YouTube以其用户生成的内容而闻名，但它进入体育直播和电视节目等领域只是时间问题。</blockquote> The most important step will be to increase the revenues coming from sellingYouTube as a service.YouTube Premium has been growing rapidly since 2015, and it could be an even larger source of revenue for Google than advertising. Ultimately, Google could unlock massive value by bundling together its services.YouTube Premium Cloud, for example, could all be part of one package. It’s all about building an ecosystem around the brand.<blockquote>最重要的一步将是增加销售YouTube即服务的收入。YouTube Premium自2015年以来一直在快速增长，对于谷歌来说，它可能是比广告更大的收入来源。最终，谷歌可以通过将其服务捆绑在一起来释放巨大的价值。例如，YouTube Premium Cloud可以全部成为一个包的一部分。这一切都是为了围绕品牌建立一个生态系统。</blockquote> Forecast and Valuation<blockquote>预测与估值</blockquote> If we look at Alphabet’s revenue, it has a remarkably consistent growth pattern for a 10-year period.<blockquote>如果我们看看Alphabet的收入，就会发现它在10年的时间里有着非常一致的增长模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879a040103c53eb5da2bc1e79c288a65\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The polynomial function you can see above is the most fitting mathematical expression to describe it. The R2 value is the measure of fit, which you can see is quite close to 100%. This function forecasts a slowly diminishing growth rate, from 18% in 2021 to 10% in 2030 in this case, which would take revenues to $600 billion in nine and a half years. The thing is, with growth rates dropping below 10% as the business becomes more consolidated, valuation multiples would likely come closer to the average for the sector. Let's compare the Price to Sales ratio, for example, which is currently at 8.70 (GAAP TTM) for Alphabet. If this were to change to the sector median ratio of 2.03, the share price would be only $1800.<blockquote>你在上面看到的多项式函数是描述它最合适的数学表达式。R2值是拟合度的度量，您可以看到它非常接近100%。该函数预测增长率将缓慢下降，在本例中从2021年的18%降至2030年的10%，这将使收入在九年半内达到6000亿美元。问题是，随着业务更加整合，增长率降至10%以下，估值倍数可能会更接近该行业的平均水平。例如，让我们比较一下Alphabet目前的市销率为8.70（GAAP TTM）。如果这一比率变为行业中位数2.03，股价将仅为1800美元。</blockquote> You could and should argue that Alphabet’s superior sales multiple accounts for not only growth but also profitability, since the Price to Earnings ratio is also superior to the sector median (29.79 vs. 22.85), but not nearly by as much. To simplify, let’s say that the PE ratio is 30% higher than the sector median because of superior growth and that the PS ratio is 4.29 times as high as the sector median mainly because of profitability. If we take out the 30% growth factor it should only be 3.29 times higher than the sector median, which is a PS ratio of 6.67. At that ratio a revenue of $600bn without having the shares trading at $5,900. Starting at the current price of his means a yearly return of about 9%.<blockquote>你可以而且应该认为，Alphabet卓越的销售倍数不仅是增长的原因，也是盈利能力的原因，因为市盈率也优于行业中位数（29.79比22.85），但相差不远。简单来说，假设市盈率比行业中位数高30%是因为增长出色，而市盈率比行业中位数高4.29倍主要是因为盈利能力。如果我们剔除30%的增长因素，它应该只比行业中位数高3.29倍，即市盈率为6.67。按照这个比率，如果股价不是5900美元，收入将达到6000亿美元。以他目前的价格开始意味着年回报率约为9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d96d9d77fc4e470238961090adc80ef\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As you can see, the exponential trendline is also a remarkably good fit. This would forecast a constant growth of 19% per year, reaching $1.1 trillion in revenues.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，指数趋势线也非常适合。预计每年将持续增长19%，收入将达到1.1万亿美元。</blockquote> If this is maintained, not only will revenue be higher, but also with a growth rate that isn’t diminishing, current above-average valuation multiples would still be justified. With this 1.1 trillion in revenues and a PS ratio of 8.7, as it is currently, the share price could reach over $14,000 by 2030, which is of course a 19% yearly return from the current price.<blockquote>如果这种情况持续下去，不仅收入会更高，而且增长率不会下降，目前高于平均水平的估值倍数仍然是合理的。以目前1.1万亿美元的收入和8.7的市盈率，到2030年股价可能会超过14,000美元，这当然是当前价格19%的年回报率。</blockquote> I would risk stating the obvious if I just said that differences in growth sustained in the long run can have a large effect on the value of a company, but it is useful to put it into numbers for some perspective.<blockquote>如果我只是说长期持续增长的差异会对公司的价值产生很大影响，我会冒险陈述显而易见的事实，但从某种角度来看，将其转化为数字是有用的。</blockquote> Speaking of Alphabet’s growth, let’s see what is happening with one of its promising segments, YouTube. This platform has given Alphabet increased revenues since its acquisition. Revenues have been mostly in the form of advertising, but this could shift in the coming years. YouTube had approximately 2.3bn users in 2020, having almost doubled in five years. If this trend continues, it could count as many as 6.9bn users by 2030.<blockquote>说到Alphabet的增长，让我们看看其最有前途的细分市场之一YouTube正在发生什么。自收购以来，该平台为Alphabet带来了更多收入。收入主要以广告形式出现，但这种情况在未来几年可能会发生变化。2020年，YouTube拥有约23亿用户，五年内几乎翻了一番。如果这一趋势持续下去，到2030年，它的用户数量可能高达69亿。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b131552843a9861df18d8828d753f5a2\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"238\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：YouTube收入和使用统计（2021年）-应用程序业务</blockquote> Ad revenue per user is also growing consistently, especially as the platform increases the presence of advertising to push the premium subscription. We have made a forecast based on the data from the last 4 years, which is how long this segment has been disclosed separately in Alphabet’s statements of operations.<blockquote>每用户的广告收入也在持续增长，特别是随着平台增加广告的存在以推动高级订阅。我们根据过去4年的数据进行了预测，这是该部门在Alphabet运营报表中单独披露的时间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb814b6721a846c98a84a865b39ed716\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author’s work based on Source: YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps and company records.<blockquote>来源：作者的工作基于来源：YouTube收入和使用统计（2021）——应用和公司记录的业务。</blockquote> YouTube has been attempting a higher monetization of its nearly 2.3bn users by pushing premium subscriptions. The prices are not fixed around the globe, but in the US, where most of the revenue is made, it is $11.99 a month or $119.88 per year. This is significantly higher than the ad revenue per user, and although the percentage of premium users is small, it is also true that it has increased ten-fold since 2015. If the trend continues it could hit almost 12% of total users by 2030.<blockquote>YouTube一直试图通过推广付费订阅来提高其近23亿用户的盈利能力。全球范围内的价格并不固定，但在大部分收入来源的美国，价格为每月11.99美元或每年119.88美元。这明显高于每用户的广告收入，尽管高级用户的比例很小，但自2015年以来增长了十倍也是事实。如果这一趋势继续下去，到2030年，它可能会达到总用户的近12%。</blockquote> Source: Author’s work based on YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于YouTube收入和使用统计数据的工作（2021年）-应用程序业务</blockquote> If we add together the forecast for total users, percentage of premium users and projected ad revenue per (non-premium) user, we come to a forecast of what YouTube’s revenue path could look like in the coming years. You can see it summarized in this table.<blockquote>如果我们将对总用户、付费用户百分比和每个（非付费）用户的预计广告收入的预测加在一起，我们就可以预测YouTube未来几年的收入路径。你可以在这个表中看到它的总结。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc620a5b88c2bcb30f76020d0f07924c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This forecast suggests that YouTube could bring in revenues close to $300bn by 2030, representing a CAGR of 28% from 2020. This combined with promising prospects for the cloud business and a seemingly continuous growth of its search engine revenue, would suggest that the overall Alphabet revenue will be closer to the $1.1tn mark than the $600bn, out of the two scenarios discussed earlier. If this is the case and it becomes apparent with further news on performance, and the market perceives as we do a likely long-term return near 19%, there will be plenty of room for a higher stock price shortly.<blockquote>这一预测表明，到2030年，YouTube的收入可能接近3000亿美元，比2020年的复合年增长率为28%。再加上云业务的光明前景及其搜索引擎收入似乎持续增长，这表明Alphabet的整体收入将接近1.1万亿美元大关，而不是之前讨论的两种情况中的6000亿美元。如果是这种情况，并且随着业绩的进一步消息而变得明显，并且市场认为我们的长期回报率可能接近19%，那么股价很快就会有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> I believe that Google’s revenues are more likely to follow the exponential growth path laid out above. This is supported byYouTube’s increasing growth and profitability prospects. In my humble opinion, Google is set to be one of the best-performing companies of the next decade, and committing part of your portfolio to this company is a decision you won’t regret.<blockquote>我相信谷歌的收入更有可能遵循上面列出的指数增长路径。这得到了YouTube不断增长的增长和盈利前景的支持。依我拙见，谷歌将成为未来十年表现最好的公司之一，将你的部分投资组合投入到这家公司是一个你不会后悔的决定。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth<blockquote>忘记云，YouTube将引领Alphabet实现指数级增长</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Cloud, YouTube Will Lead Alphabet To Exponential Growth<blockquote>忘记云，YouTube将引领Alphabet实现指数级增长</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-26 15:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Google continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.</li> <li>The YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization.</li> <li>Our forecast suggests Google could bring in over $1 trillion in revenues by 2030 with a $14,000 share price.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc76d8cff230ecce9779683bdf577ed\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lauren Nicole/DigitalVision via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>谷歌继续实现出色的增长，YouTube是表现最好的细分市场。</li><li>YouTube平台将继续增长，并进一步增加用户货币化。</li><li>我们的预测表明，到2030年，谷歌的收入可能会超过1万亿美元，股价为14,000美元。</li></ul>劳伦·妮可/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL) has been one of the best-performing companies and stocks of the last decade. The company makes most of its revenue from search ads, but it has faster growing and more promising segments, such as “YouTube'' and “Cloud”. While most investors focus on the potential of Cloud, I believe that revenue from YouTube ads and YouTube subscriptions is the key factor that will allow the company to outperform, maintain a premium valuation, and ultimately reach a price of $14,000 with revenues of +$1 trillion.<blockquote>Alphabet公司（GOOG）（GOOGL）是过去十年中表现最好的公司和股票之一。该公司的大部分收入来自搜索广告，但它有增长更快、更有前途的细分市场，例如“YouTube”和“云”。虽然大多数投资者都关注云的潜力，但我相信YouTube广告和YouTube订阅的收入是使该公司跑赢大盘、维持溢价估值并最终达到14,000美元价格、收入超过1万亿美元的关键因素。</blockquote> YouTube in Numbers<blockquote>YouTube的数字</blockquote> YouTube was originally conceived by three ex PayPal (PYPL) employees in 2005 and quickly acquired by Google in 2006 for $1.65 billion. WhenYouTube began, it received around 30,000 views per day. Today, it is the second most popular website in the world, with over 30 million visitors per day and 300 hours of content uploaded every minute.<blockquote>YouTube最初是由三名前PayPal(PYPL)员工于2005年构思的，并于2006年迅速被谷歌以16.5亿美元收购。当YouTube开始时，它每天收到大约30,000次浏览。今天，它是世界上第二大最受欢迎的网站，每天有超过3000万访问者，每分钟上传300小时的内容。</blockquote> YouTube’s growth since its inception has been staggering, and, in terms of revenue, it is actually Google’s fastest-growing segment as of the last quarter:<blockquote>YouTube自成立以来的增长令人震惊，就收入而言，它实际上是谷歌上季度增长最快的部门：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac38e8a4000826c38acb02a73c62652b\" tg-width=\"1178\" tg-height=\"950\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:10-Q<blockquote>资料来源：10-Q</blockquote> Google Search &amp; Other is where the bulk of revenue comes from, and this segment grew at a rate of 30% YoY.YouTube Ads, which accounts for a little over 10% of overall revenues, grew to the tune of 48.7%. This growth rate is even higher than Google Cloud, which increased by 45.73%. Furthermore, we must also take into account that theYouTube platform is also responsible for part of the revenues contained in Google Other. This segment includes revenues fromYouTube’s subscription services such asYouTube TV andYouTube Premium.<blockquote>Google搜索和其他是大部分收入的来源，该细分市场同比增长30%。YouTube广告占总收入的10%多一点，增长了48.7%。这一增速甚至高于谷歌云，后者增长了45.73%。此外，我们还必须考虑到，YouTube平台也负责Google Other中包含的部分收入。该部门包括YouTube TV和YouTube Premium等YouTube订阅服务的收入。</blockquote> Looking solely at the numbers, it is clear thatYouTube is a key segment driving growth in the company. But what can we expect ofYouTube going forward? And what makes it better than the competition?<blockquote>仅从数字来看，很明显YouTube是推动公司增长的关键细分市场。但是我们对YouTube的未来有什么期待呢？是什么让它比竞争对手更好？</blockquote> What makesYouTube a great business?<blockquote>是什么造就了YouTube是一个伟大的企业？</blockquote> In a previous&nbsp;article on Visa(V), I discussed how the company showcases the 7 different business moats that Hamilton Helmer puts forward in his book&nbsp;7 Powers. Looking atYouTube, we can also identify these compelling moats, which protect it from the competition and set it apart from other businesses.<blockquote>在之前关于Visa(V)的文章中，我讨论了该公司如何展示汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)在其著作《7种权力》中提出的7种不同的商业护城河。看看YouTube，我们还可以发现这些引人注目的护城河，这些护城河保护它免受竞争并将其与其他企业区分开来。</blockquote> Scale and Network Effect<blockquote>规模与网络效应</blockquote> Due to the nature of the platform,YouTube enjoys both scale and network effects.YouTube can add more users without hardly increasing its costs. There may be some costs associated with hosting and even regulating content, but it is negligible. Any competitor wanting to enter this space would have to spend a considerable amount, just to get anywhere near having the infrastructure and contentYouTube has.<blockquote>由于平台的性质，YouTube同时享有规模效应和网络效应。YouTube可以在几乎不增加成本的情况下增加更多用户。托管甚至监管内容可能会有一些成本，但可以忽略不计。任何想要进入这个领域的竞争对手都必须花费大量资金，才能接近YouTube所拥有的基础设施和内容。</blockquote> On top of that, with every new user/creator, the value of the network increases. The more people upload onYouTube, the more content there is available, which leads to more views and in turn, leads to more incentives to upload content toYouTube.<blockquote>最重要的是，随着每一个新用户/创建者，网络的价值都会增加。上传到YouTube的人越多，可用的内容就越多，这会导致更多的浏览量，反过来，也会导致更多的动机将内容上传到YouTube。</blockquote> Switching costs and Branding<blockquote>转换成本和品牌</blockquote> As far users go, there are indeed no real switching costs, but these come into play for creators. Those who have built a following onYouTube have strong incentives to continue growing their audience on the platform. Ultimately,YouTube offers both a compelling reward system for creators and access to the largest audience the internet has to offer.<blockquote>就用户而言，确实没有真正的转换成本，但这些成本对创作者来说会发挥作用。那些在YouTube上建立了追随者的人有强烈的动机继续在该平台上增加他们的观众。最终，YouTube为创作者提供了一个引人注目的奖励系统，并接触到了互联网所能提供的最大受众。</blockquote> As far as branding goes, we could certainly say thatYouTube excels in this arena. This can be seen by the fact thatYouTube has even become a commonly used verb and “YouTuber” is even used as a job title.YouTube is the go-to place around the world if you want to find any form of video content.<blockquote>就品牌而言，我们可以肯定地说YouTube在这一领域表现出色。这可以从YouTube甚至成为一个常用的动词，“YouTuber”甚至被用作一个职位头衔这一事实中看出。如果你想找到任何形式的视频内容，YouTube是世界各地的首选。</blockquote> Counter positioning and Process Power<blockquote>计数器定位和过程功率</blockquote> Counter-positioning refers to the idea that a company has a disruptive business model that others can’t copy. In this case, we have to think, is there a business model which could compete withYouTube and that the company can’t copy/absorb?<blockquote>反向定位是指认为一家公司拥有别人无法复制的颠覆性商业模式。在这种情况下，我们不得不思考，有没有一种商业模式可以与YouTube竞争，而该公司无法复制/吸收？</blockquote> We actually have a perfect example of this happening in how companies likeSpotify(SPOT) are trying to compete with Google by offering content through subscriptions. However, in the last few years, we have seenYouTube launch its own subscription options, competing head-on with Spotify. Furthermore, Google also can absorb any competitor that it deems it can’t compete with head-on.<blockquote>事实上，我们有一个很好的例子，像Spotify(SPOT)这样的公司试图通过订阅提供内容来与谷歌竞争。然而，在过去几年中，我们看到YouTube推出了自己的订阅选项，与Spotify正面竞争。此外，谷歌还可以吸收任何它认为无法正面竞争的竞争对手。</blockquote> Process power can be defined as “embedded company organisation and activity sets which enable lower costs and/or superior product.” In the case ofYouTube, the “process power” is their algorithm and access to data, which allows them to serve both optimal content and advertising. Google’s access to data is unrivalled, and this is what allows it to be much more efficient.<blockquote>流程能力可以定义为“嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品。”就YouTube而言，“处理能力”是他们的算法和对数据的访问，这使他们能够提供最佳内容和广告。谷歌对数据的访问是无与伦比的，这也是它效率更高的原因。</blockquote> Cornered resource<blockquote>被垄断的资源</blockquote> Lastly, we have the cornered resource. This means having exclusive access to a valuable resource. Patents are an example of this. In the case ofYouTube, there are a few elements that we could call cornered resources. The data that Google has access to, could be an example of this. Another exclusive resource thatYouTube has is its “YouTubers”. These individuals are providing content to Google for free daily. This content can indeed find its way to other platforms, butYouTube offers these creators attractive payment terms and a huge audience.<blockquote>最后，我们有被垄断的资源。这意味着拥有对有价值资源的独占访问权。专利就是一个例子。就YouTube而言，有一些元素我们可以看涨期权垄断资源。谷歌可以访问的数据可能就是一个例子。YouTube拥有的另一个独家资源是它的“YouTubers”。这些人每天免费向谷歌提供内容。这些内容确实可以到达其他平台，但YouTube为这些创作者提供了有吸引力的支付条件和庞大的受众。</blockquote> The future of&nbsp;YouTube Revenues<blockquote>的未来 YouTube收入</blockquote> The only question that remains to be answered, is how will Google best monetizeYouTube? For the time being,YouTube’s main source of revenue is advertising. In recent quarters, the company has found particular success with direct-response ads, which create a sense of urgency and have a clear call-to-action.<blockquote>唯一有待回答的问题是，谷歌将如何最好地将YouTube货币化？就目前而言，YouTube的主要收入来源是广告。最近几个季度，该公司在直接响应广告方面取得了特别成功，这种广告营造了一种紧迫感，并具有明确的行动看涨期权。</blockquote> In terms of advertising, what setsYouTube apart though, is its incredibly powerful AI, and it can offer something that traditional TV just can’t do. This was best described by Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster:<blockquote>在广告方面，YouTube的与众不同之处在于其令人难以置信的强大人工智能，它可以提供传统电视无法提供的东西。Loup Ventures管理合伙人Gene Munster对此进行了最好的描述：</blockquote> YouTube is now best positioned to deliver on something we’ve talked about for a decade, which is two people watching the same live event but getting different ads. Source:CNBC<blockquote>YouTube现在最有能力提供我们已经谈论了十年的东西，即两个人观看同一个直播活动，但收到不同的广告。资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> YouTube is known for its user-generated content, but it’s just a matter of time before it moves into areas such as live sports and TV shows.<blockquote>YouTube以其用户生成的内容而闻名，但它进入体育直播和电视节目等领域只是时间问题。</blockquote> The most important step will be to increase the revenues coming from sellingYouTube as a service.YouTube Premium has been growing rapidly since 2015, and it could be an even larger source of revenue for Google than advertising. Ultimately, Google could unlock massive value by bundling together its services.YouTube Premium Cloud, for example, could all be part of one package. It’s all about building an ecosystem around the brand.<blockquote>最重要的一步将是增加销售YouTube即服务的收入。YouTube Premium自2015年以来一直在快速增长，对于谷歌来说，它可能是比广告更大的收入来源。最终，谷歌可以通过将其服务捆绑在一起来释放巨大的价值。例如，YouTube Premium Cloud可以全部成为一个包的一部分。这一切都是为了围绕品牌建立一个生态系统。</blockquote> Forecast and Valuation<blockquote>预测与估值</blockquote> If we look at Alphabet’s revenue, it has a remarkably consistent growth pattern for a 10-year period.<blockquote>如果我们看看Alphabet的收入，就会发现它在10年的时间里有着非常一致的增长模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/879a040103c53eb5da2bc1e79c288a65\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The polynomial function you can see above is the most fitting mathematical expression to describe it. The R2 value is the measure of fit, which you can see is quite close to 100%. This function forecasts a slowly diminishing growth rate, from 18% in 2021 to 10% in 2030 in this case, which would take revenues to $600 billion in nine and a half years. The thing is, with growth rates dropping below 10% as the business becomes more consolidated, valuation multiples would likely come closer to the average for the sector. Let's compare the Price to Sales ratio, for example, which is currently at 8.70 (GAAP TTM) for Alphabet. If this were to change to the sector median ratio of 2.03, the share price would be only $1800.<blockquote>你在上面看到的多项式函数是描述它最合适的数学表达式。R2值是拟合度的度量，您可以看到它非常接近100%。该函数预测增长率将缓慢下降，在本例中从2021年的18%降至2030年的10%，这将使收入在九年半内达到6000亿美元。问题是，随着业务更加整合，增长率降至10%以下，估值倍数可能会更接近该行业的平均水平。例如，让我们比较一下Alphabet目前的市销率为8.70（GAAP TTM）。如果这一比率变为行业中位数2.03，股价将仅为1800美元。</blockquote> You could and should argue that Alphabet’s superior sales multiple accounts for not only growth but also profitability, since the Price to Earnings ratio is also superior to the sector median (29.79 vs. 22.85), but not nearly by as much. To simplify, let’s say that the PE ratio is 30% higher than the sector median because of superior growth and that the PS ratio is 4.29 times as high as the sector median mainly because of profitability. If we take out the 30% growth factor it should only be 3.29 times higher than the sector median, which is a PS ratio of 6.67. At that ratio a revenue of $600bn without having the shares trading at $5,900. Starting at the current price of his means a yearly return of about 9%.<blockquote>你可以而且应该认为，Alphabet卓越的销售倍数不仅是增长的原因，也是盈利能力的原因，因为市盈率也优于行业中位数（29.79比22.85），但相差不远。简单来说，假设市盈率比行业中位数高30%是因为增长出色，而市盈率比行业中位数高4.29倍主要是因为盈利能力。如果我们剔除30%的增长因素，它应该只比行业中位数高3.29倍，即市盈率为6.67。按照这个比率，如果股价不是5900美元，收入将达到6000亿美元。以他目前的价格开始意味着年回报率约为9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d96d9d77fc4e470238961090adc80ef\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As you can see, the exponential trendline is also a remarkably good fit. This would forecast a constant growth of 19% per year, reaching $1.1 trillion in revenues.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，指数趋势线也非常适合。预计每年将持续增长19%，收入将达到1.1万亿美元。</blockquote> If this is maintained, not only will revenue be higher, but also with a growth rate that isn’t diminishing, current above-average valuation multiples would still be justified. With this 1.1 trillion in revenues and a PS ratio of 8.7, as it is currently, the share price could reach over $14,000 by 2030, which is of course a 19% yearly return from the current price.<blockquote>如果这种情况持续下去，不仅收入会更高，而且增长率不会下降，目前高于平均水平的估值倍数仍然是合理的。以目前1.1万亿美元的收入和8.7的市盈率，到2030年股价可能会超过14,000美元，这当然是当前价格19%的年回报率。</blockquote> I would risk stating the obvious if I just said that differences in growth sustained in the long run can have a large effect on the value of a company, but it is useful to put it into numbers for some perspective.<blockquote>如果我只是说长期持续增长的差异会对公司的价值产生很大影响，我会冒险陈述显而易见的事实，但从某种角度来看，将其转化为数字是有用的。</blockquote> Speaking of Alphabet’s growth, let’s see what is happening with one of its promising segments, YouTube. This platform has given Alphabet increased revenues since its acquisition. Revenues have been mostly in the form of advertising, but this could shift in the coming years. YouTube had approximately 2.3bn users in 2020, having almost doubled in five years. If this trend continues, it could count as many as 6.9bn users by 2030.<blockquote>说到Alphabet的增长，让我们看看其最有前途的细分市场之一YouTube正在发生什么。自收购以来，该平台为Alphabet带来了更多收入。收入主要以广告形式出现，但这种情况在未来几年可能会发生变化。2020年，YouTube拥有约23亿用户，五年内几乎翻了一番。如果这一趋势持续下去，到2030年，它的用户数量可能高达69亿。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b131552843a9861df18d8828d753f5a2\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"238\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps<blockquote>来源：YouTube收入和使用统计（2021年）-应用程序业务</blockquote> Ad revenue per user is also growing consistently, especially as the platform increases the presence of advertising to push the premium subscription. We have made a forecast based on the data from the last 4 years, which is how long this segment has been disclosed separately in Alphabet’s statements of operations.<blockquote>每用户的广告收入也在持续增长，特别是随着平台增加广告的存在以推动高级订阅。我们根据过去4年的数据进行了预测，这是该部门在Alphabet运营报表中单独披露的时间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb814b6721a846c98a84a865b39ed716\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author’s work based on Source: YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps and company records.<blockquote>来源：作者的工作基于来源：YouTube收入和使用统计（2021）——应用和公司记录的业务。</blockquote> YouTube has been attempting a higher monetization of its nearly 2.3bn users by pushing premium subscriptions. The prices are not fixed around the globe, but in the US, where most of the revenue is made, it is $11.99 a month or $119.88 per year. This is significantly higher than the ad revenue per user, and although the percentage of premium users is small, it is also true that it has increased ten-fold since 2015. If the trend continues it could hit almost 12% of total users by 2030.<blockquote>YouTube一直试图通过推广付费订阅来提高其近23亿用户的盈利能力。全球范围内的价格并不固定，但在大部分收入来源的美国，价格为每月11.99美元或每年119.88美元。这明显高于每用户的广告收入，尽管高级用户的比例很小，但自2015年以来增长了十倍也是事实。如果这一趋势继续下去，到2030年，它可能会达到总用户的近12%。</blockquote> Source: Author’s work based on YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于YouTube收入和使用统计数据的工作（2021年）-应用程序业务</blockquote> If we add together the forecast for total users, percentage of premium users and projected ad revenue per (non-premium) user, we come to a forecast of what YouTube’s revenue path could look like in the coming years. You can see it summarized in this table.<blockquote>如果我们将对总用户、付费用户百分比和每个（非付费）用户的预计广告收入的预测加在一起，我们就可以预测YouTube未来几年的收入路径。你可以在这个表中看到它的总结。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc620a5b88c2bcb30f76020d0f07924c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This forecast suggests that YouTube could bring in revenues close to $300bn by 2030, representing a CAGR of 28% from 2020. This combined with promising prospects for the cloud business and a seemingly continuous growth of its search engine revenue, would suggest that the overall Alphabet revenue will be closer to the $1.1tn mark than the $600bn, out of the two scenarios discussed earlier. If this is the case and it becomes apparent with further news on performance, and the market perceives as we do a likely long-term return near 19%, there will be plenty of room for a higher stock price shortly.<blockquote>这一预测表明，到2030年，YouTube的收入可能接近3000亿美元，比2020年的复合年增长率为28%。再加上云业务的光明前景及其搜索引擎收入似乎持续增长，这表明Alphabet的整体收入将接近1.1万亿美元大关，而不是之前讨论的两种情况中的6000亿美元。如果是这种情况，并且随着业绩的进一步消息而变得明显，并且市场认为我们的长期回报率可能接近19%，那么股价很快就会有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> I believe that Google’s revenues are more likely to follow the exponential growth path laid out above. This is supported byYouTube’s increasing growth and profitability prospects. In my humble opinion, Google is set to be one of the best-performing companies of the next decade, and committing part of your portfolio to this company is a decision you won’t regret.<blockquote>我相信谷歌的收入更有可能遵循上面列出的指数增长路径。这得到了YouTube不断增长的增长和盈利前景的支持。依我拙见，谷歌将成为未来十年表现最好的公司之一，将你的部分投资组合投入到这家公司是一个你不会后悔的决定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441312-forget-cloud-youtube-will-lead-alphabet-to-exponential-growth\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441312-forget-cloud-youtube-will-lead-alphabet-to-exponential-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116690230","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoogle continues to deliver outstanding growth, and YouTube is the best-performing segment.\nThe YouTube platform is poised to keep growing and further increase user monetization.\nOur forecast suggests Google could bring in over $1 trillion in revenues by 2030 with a $14,000 share price.\n\nLauren Nicole/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nAlphabet Inc. (GOOG)(GOOGL) has been one of the best-performing companies and stocks of the last decade. The company makes most of its revenue from search ads, but it has faster growing and more promising segments, such as “YouTube'' and “Cloud”. While most investors focus on the potential of Cloud, I believe that revenue from YouTube ads and YouTube subscriptions is the key factor that will allow the company to outperform, maintain a premium valuation, and ultimately reach a price of $14,000 with revenues of +$1 trillion.\nYouTube in Numbers\nYouTube was originally conceived by three ex PayPal (PYPL) employees in 2005 and quickly acquired by Google in 2006 for $1.65 billion. WhenYouTube began, it received around 30,000 views per day. Today, it is the second most popular website in the world, with over 30 million visitors per day and 300 hours of content uploaded every minute.\nYouTube’s growth since its inception has been staggering, and, in terms of revenue, it is actually Google’s fastest-growing segment as of the last quarter:\nSource:10-Q\nGoogle Search & Other is where the bulk of revenue comes from, and this segment grew at a rate of 30% YoY.YouTube Ads, which accounts for a little over 10% of overall revenues, grew to the tune of 48.7%. This growth rate is even higher than Google Cloud, which increased by 45.73%. Furthermore, we must also take into account that theYouTube platform is also responsible for part of the revenues contained in Google Other. This segment includes revenues fromYouTube’s subscription services such asYouTube TV andYouTube Premium.\nLooking solely at the numbers, it is clear thatYouTube is a key segment driving growth in the company. But what can we expect ofYouTube going forward? And what makes it better than the competition?\nWhat makesYouTube a great business?\nIn a previous article on Visa(V), I discussed how the company showcases the 7 different business moats that Hamilton Helmer puts forward in his book 7 Powers. Looking atYouTube, we can also identify these compelling moats, which protect it from the competition and set it apart from other businesses.\nScale and Network Effect\nDue to the nature of the platform,YouTube enjoys both scale and network effects.YouTube can add more users without hardly increasing its costs. There may be some costs associated with hosting and even regulating content, but it is negligible. Any competitor wanting to enter this space would have to spend a considerable amount, just to get anywhere near having the infrastructure and contentYouTube has.\nOn top of that, with every new user/creator, the value of the network increases. The more people upload onYouTube, the more content there is available, which leads to more views and in turn, leads to more incentives to upload content toYouTube.\nSwitching costs and Branding\nAs far users go, there are indeed no real switching costs, but these come into play for creators. Those who have built a following onYouTube have strong incentives to continue growing their audience on the platform. Ultimately,YouTube offers both a compelling reward system for creators and access to the largest audience the internet has to offer.\nAs far as branding goes, we could certainly say thatYouTube excels in this arena. This can be seen by the fact thatYouTube has even become a commonly used verb and “YouTuber” is even used as a job title.YouTube is the go-to place around the world if you want to find any form of video content.\nCounter positioning and Process Power\nCounter-positioning refers to the idea that a company has a disruptive business model that others can’t copy. In this case, we have to think, is there a business model which could compete withYouTube and that the company can’t copy/absorb?\nWe actually have a perfect example of this happening in how companies likeSpotify(SPOT) are trying to compete with Google by offering content through subscriptions. However, in the last few years, we have seenYouTube launch its own subscription options, competing head-on with Spotify. Furthermore, Google also can absorb any competitor that it deems it can’t compete with head-on.\nProcess power can be defined as “embedded company organisation and activity sets which enable lower costs and/or superior product.” In the case ofYouTube, the “process power” is their algorithm and access to data, which allows them to serve both optimal content and advertising. Google’s access to data is unrivalled, and this is what allows it to be much more efficient.\nCornered resource\nLastly, we have the cornered resource. This means having exclusive access to a valuable resource. Patents are an example of this. In the case ofYouTube, there are a few elements that we could call cornered resources. The data that Google has access to, could be an example of this. Another exclusive resource thatYouTube has is its “YouTubers”. These individuals are providing content to Google for free daily. This content can indeed find its way to other platforms, butYouTube offers these creators attractive payment terms and a huge audience.\nThe future of YouTube Revenues\nThe only question that remains to be answered, is how will Google best monetizeYouTube? For the time being,YouTube’s main source of revenue is advertising. In recent quarters, the company has found particular success with direct-response ads, which create a sense of urgency and have a clear call-to-action.\nIn terms of advertising, what setsYouTube apart though, is its incredibly powerful AI, and it can offer something that traditional TV just can’t do. This was best described by Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster:\n\n YouTube is now best positioned to deliver on something we’ve talked about for a decade, which is two people watching the same live event but getting different ads.\n\nSource:CNBC\nYouTube is known for its user-generated content, but it’s just a matter of time before it moves into areas such as live sports and TV shows.\nThe most important step will be to increase the revenues coming from sellingYouTube as a service.YouTube Premium has been growing rapidly since 2015, and it could be an even larger source of revenue for Google than advertising. Ultimately, Google could unlock massive value by bundling together its services.YouTube Premium Cloud, for example, could all be part of one package. It’s all about building an ecosystem around the brand.\nForecast and Valuation\nIf we look at Alphabet’s revenue, it has a remarkably consistent growth pattern for a 10-year period.\n\nThe polynomial function you can see above is the most fitting mathematical expression to describe it. The R2 value is the measure of fit, which you can see is quite close to 100%. This function forecasts a slowly diminishing growth rate, from 18% in 2021 to 10% in 2030 in this case, which would take revenues to $600 billion in nine and a half years. The thing is, with growth rates dropping below 10% as the business becomes more consolidated, valuation multiples would likely come closer to the average for the sector. Let's compare the Price to Sales ratio, for example, which is currently at 8.70 (GAAP TTM) for Alphabet. If this were to change to the sector median ratio of 2.03, the share price would be only $1800.\nYou could and should argue that Alphabet’s superior sales multiple accounts for not only growth but also profitability, since the Price to Earnings ratio is also superior to the sector median (29.79 vs. 22.85), but not nearly by as much. To simplify, let’s say that the PE ratio is 30% higher than the sector median because of superior growth and that the PS ratio is 4.29 times as high as the sector median mainly because of profitability. If we take out the 30% growth factor it should only be 3.29 times higher than the sector median, which is a PS ratio of 6.67. At that ratio a revenue of $600bn without having the shares trading at $5,900. Starting at the current price of his means a yearly return of about 9%.\n\nAs you can see, the exponential trendline is also a remarkably good fit. This would forecast a constant growth of 19% per year, reaching $1.1 trillion in revenues.\nIf this is maintained, not only will revenue be higher, but also with a growth rate that isn’t diminishing, current above-average valuation multiples would still be justified. With this 1.1 trillion in revenues and a PS ratio of 8.7, as it is currently, the share price could reach over $14,000 by 2030, which is of course a 19% yearly return from the current price.\nI would risk stating the obvious if I just said that differences in growth sustained in the long run can have a large effect on the value of a company, but it is useful to put it into numbers for some perspective.\nSpeaking of Alphabet’s growth, let’s see what is happening with one of its promising segments, YouTube. This platform has given Alphabet increased revenues since its acquisition. Revenues have been mostly in the form of advertising, but this could shift in the coming years. YouTube had approximately 2.3bn users in 2020, having almost doubled in five years. If this trend continues, it could count as many as 6.9bn users by 2030.\nSource:YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps\nAd revenue per user is also growing consistently, especially as the platform increases the presence of advertising to push the premium subscription. We have made a forecast based on the data from the last 4 years, which is how long this segment has been disclosed separately in Alphabet’s statements of operations.\nSource: Author’s work based on Source: YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps and company records.\nYouTube has been attempting a higher monetization of its nearly 2.3bn users by pushing premium subscriptions. The prices are not fixed around the globe, but in the US, where most of the revenue is made, it is $11.99 a month or $119.88 per year. This is significantly higher than the ad revenue per user, and although the percentage of premium users is small, it is also true that it has increased ten-fold since 2015. If the trend continues it could hit almost 12% of total users by 2030.\nSource: Author’s work based on YouTube Revenue and Usage Statistics (2021) - Business of Apps\nIf we add together the forecast for total users, percentage of premium users and projected ad revenue per (non-premium) user, we come to a forecast of what YouTube’s revenue path could look like in the coming years. You can see it summarized in this table.\n\nThis forecast suggests that YouTube could bring in revenues close to $300bn by 2030, representing a CAGR of 28% from 2020. This combined with promising prospects for the cloud business and a seemingly continuous growth of its search engine revenue, would suggest that the overall Alphabet revenue will be closer to the $1.1tn mark than the $600bn, out of the two scenarios discussed earlier. If this is the case and it becomes apparent with further news on performance, and the market perceives as we do a likely long-term return near 19%, there will be plenty of room for a higher stock price shortly.\nTakeaway\nI believe that Google’s revenues are more likely to follow the exponential growth path laid out above. This is supported byYouTube’s increasing growth and profitability prospects. In my humble opinion, Google is set to be one of the best-performing companies of the next decade, and committing part of your portfolio to this company is a decision you won’t regret.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1363,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}