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2021-07-28

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Higher prices could be here to stay if the Fed doesn't act soon<blockquote>如果美联储不尽快采取行动，价格可能会持续上涨</blockquote>

New York (CNN Business)Back in March, people were freaking out about rising long-term interest rates

Higher prices could be here to stay if the Fed doesn't act soon<blockquote>如果美联储不尽快采取行动，价格可能会持续上涨</blockquote>

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But now the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back again.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）早在三月份，人们就对长期利率上升和通胀担忧感到恐慌。但现在10年期美债收益率再次回落。</blockquote> Does this mean: So much for inflation worries? Maybe higher prices are in fact, to cite Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's favorite word, transitory after all?<blockquote>这是否意味着：通胀担忧到此为止？也许事实上，引用美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最喜欢的一句话，价格上涨毕竟是暂时的？</blockquote> Not so fast.<blockquote>没那么快。</blockquote> There's a growing chorus of experts who believe that the Fed may need to reverse course and start talking more aggressively about tamping down inflation. After all, consumer prices continue to rise. The stock market is near a record high. Wages are going up too.<blockquote>越来越多的专家认为，美联储可能需要改变方针，开始更积极地谈论抑制通胀。毕竟，消费价格持续上涨。股市接近历史新高。工资也在上涨。</blockquote> Inflation roaring back?<blockquote>通货膨胀卷土重来？</blockquote> After peaking around 1.77%, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has fallen back to about 1.24%.<blockquote>在达到1.77%左右的峰值后，10年期美国国债收益率已回落至1.24%左右。</blockquote> Fears about the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 leading to another economic slowdown seem to be on the back burner for now. If anything, spiking Covid cases could cause more supply chain shocks that would lead to more inflation.<blockquote>对新冠肺炎高传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致经济再次放缓的担忧似乎暂时被搁置。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是新冠病例激增可能会导致更多的供应链冲击，从而导致更多的通货膨胀。</blockquote> That all should push bond yields higher again and potentially lead the Fed to consider an end, or tapering, of its bond purchase program that has helped keep rates artificially low. After that, an interest rate hike would be the next logical step.<blockquote>所有这些都应该会推高债券收益率，并可能导致美联储考虑结束或缩减其债券购买计划，该计划有助于人为地将利率保持在较低水平。之后，加息将是下一个合乎逻辑的步骤。</blockquote> In a report last Wednesday, one strategist paraphrased the old Semisonic song \"Closing Time,\" arguing it's time for the Fed to turn out the lights on stimulus...even if it means a hangover for investors drunk on easy money. Bill Stone, chief investment officer of The Glenview Trust Company, thinks the Fed could announce tapering by the end of the year and raise rates in 2022.<blockquote>在上周三的一份报告中，一位策略师引用了一首老歌《收盘时间》，认为美联储是时候关掉刺激措施了……即使这意味着沉醉于轻松赚钱的投资者宿醉。格伦维尤信托公司首席投资官比尔·斯通认为，美联储可能会在年底前宣布缩减规模，并在2022年加息。</blockquote> The market agrees with Stone that the end of the 0% rate environment is on the horizon: According to the CME's fed funds futures, traders are pricing in a 57% chance of at least one rate hike by the end of next year.<blockquote>市场同意斯通的观点，即0%利率环境即将结束：根据芝商所的联邦基金期货，交易员预计到明年年底至少加息一次的可能性为57%。</blockquote> \"The Fed is in a pickle and there is so much evidence that they are wrong about inflation and that higher prices are less transitory than the Fed expects,\" said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer of Cetera Financial. \"They may have to accelerate the plan to raise rates.\"<blockquote>Cetera Financial首席投资官吉恩·戈德曼(Gene Goldman)表示：“美联储陷入了困境，有大量证据表明他们对通胀的看法是错误的，而且价格上涨并不像美联储预期的那样是短暂的。”“他们可能不得不加快加息计划。”</blockquote> If that's the case, then long-term bond yields — which have an impact on mortgage rates and other types of consumer and business loans — should continue to creep higher as well.<blockquote>如果是这样的话，那么长期债券收益率——对抵押贷款利率以及其他类型的消费者和商业贷款有影响——也应该会继续攀升。</blockquote> \"The 10-year yield should be higher in an environment with healthy inflation and an improving economy,\" said Jordan Kahn, president and chief investment officer of ACM Funds. \"Rates should rise because of that but I think they will go up gradually.\"<blockquote>ACM Funds总裁兼首席投资官乔丹·卡恩(Jordan Kahn)表示：“在通胀健康、经济改善的环境下，10年期国债收益率应该会更高。”“因此利率应该会上升，但我认为它们会逐渐上升。”</blockquote> Experts point out that the housing market remains strong and the jobs picture continues to improve too. Most notably, wages are still rising and were most recently up 3.6% from a year ago.<blockquote>专家指出，房地产市场依然强劲，就业形势也在继续改善。最值得注意的是，工资仍在上涨，最近比一年前上涨了3.6%。</blockquote> \"The dry kindling for sustained inflation is probably here,\" said Andrew Feltus, co-head of high yield at Amundi US. \"Banks have a lot of ammo to lend money. And wages are accelerating because the labor market is tight. This looks more than transitory.\"<blockquote>Amundi US高收益联席主管安德鲁·费尔图斯(Andrew Feltus)表示：“持续通胀的导火索可能就在这里。”“银行有很多弹药可以放贷。而且由于劳动力市场紧张，工资正在加速上涨。这看起来不仅仅是暂时的。”</blockquote> Economic slowdown fears haven't disappeared yet<blockquote>经济放缓的担忧尚未消失</blockquote> Still, some experts who remain convinced the \"transitory\" narrative about inflation is the right one.<blockquote>尽管如此，一些专家仍然相信关于通货膨胀的“暂时性”叙述是正确的。</blockquote> After all, Covid and Delta worries certainly haven't gone away — and it's possible consumers may change their behavior even if governments don't impose new lockdown measures.<blockquote>毕竟，Covid和Delta的担忧肯定还没有消失——即使政府不实施新的封锁措施，消费者也有可能改变他们的行为。</blockquote> \"Inflation fears should dissipate a bit as growth worries come into play because of the Delta variant. I think the Federal Reserve will be proven to be correct about inflation as being largely transitory,\" said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.<blockquote>纽约梅隆银行首席投资官Leo Grohowski表示：“随着德尔塔变异毒株对增长的担忧发挥作用，通胀担忧应该会有所消散。我认为美联储关于通胀在很大程度上是暂时的观点将被证明是正确的。”财富管理。</blockquote> Grohowski thinks current bond yields largely reflect expectations that inflation should be a little higher — \"but not out of control.\" He says a rate of about 2% to 3% over the next 12 months for consumer price increases seems reasonable.<blockquote>Grohowski认为，目前的债券收益率很大程度上反映了通胀应该略高的预期——“但不会失控”。他表示，未来12个月消费者价格上涨约2%至3%似乎是合理的。</blockquote> The big drop in the price of lumber recently is also a potential sign that worries about runaway 1970s-to-early-1980s-style inflation are overdone.<blockquote>最近木材价格的大幅下跌也是一个潜在的迹象，表明对20世纪70年代至80年代初式通货膨胀失控的担忧有些过头了。</blockquote> \"We're starting to see commodity prices roll over,\" said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at MissionSquare Retirement.<blockquote>MissionSquare Retirement首席投资官韦恩·威克(Wayne Wicker)表示：“我们开始看到大宗商品价格滚动。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Higher prices could be here to stay if the Fed doesn't act soon<blockquote>如果美联储不尽快采取行动，价格可能会持续上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHigher prices could be here to stay if the Fed doesn't act soon<blockquote>如果美联储不尽快采取行动，价格可能会持续上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN2021-07-28 13:47\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)Back in March, people were freaking out about rising long-term interest rates and inflation fears. But now the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back again.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）早在三月份，人们就对长期利率上升和通胀担忧感到恐慌。但现在10年期美债收益率再次回落。</blockquote> Does this mean: So much for inflation worries? Maybe higher prices are in fact, to cite Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's favorite word, transitory after all?<blockquote>这是否意味着：通胀担忧到此为止？也许事实上，引用美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最喜欢的一句话，价格上涨毕竟是暂时的？</blockquote> Not so fast.<blockquote>没那么快。</blockquote> There's a growing chorus of experts who believe that the Fed may need to reverse course and start talking more aggressively about tamping down inflation. After all, consumer prices continue to rise. The stock market is near a record high. Wages are going up too.<blockquote>越来越多的专家认为，美联储可能需要改变方针，开始更积极地谈论抑制通胀。毕竟，消费价格持续上涨。股市接近历史新高。工资也在上涨。</blockquote> Inflation roaring back?<blockquote>通货膨胀卷土重来？</blockquote> After peaking around 1.77%, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has fallen back to about 1.24%.<blockquote>在达到1.77%左右的峰值后，10年期美国国债收益率已回落至1.24%左右。</blockquote> Fears about the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 leading to another economic slowdown seem to be on the back burner for now. If anything, spiking Covid cases could cause more supply chain shocks that would lead to more inflation.<blockquote>对新冠肺炎高传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致经济再次放缓的担忧似乎暂时被搁置。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是新冠病例激增可能会导致更多的供应链冲击，从而导致更多的通货膨胀。</blockquote> That all should push bond yields higher again and potentially lead the Fed to consider an end, or tapering, of its bond purchase program that has helped keep rates artificially low. After that, an interest rate hike would be the next logical step.<blockquote>所有这些都应该会推高债券收益率，并可能导致美联储考虑结束或缩减其债券购买计划，该计划有助于人为地将利率保持在较低水平。之后，加息将是下一个合乎逻辑的步骤。</blockquote> In a report last Wednesday, one strategist paraphrased the old Semisonic song \"Closing Time,\" arguing it's time for the Fed to turn out the lights on stimulus...even if it means a hangover for investors drunk on easy money. Bill Stone, chief investment officer of The Glenview Trust Company, thinks the Fed could announce tapering by the end of the year and raise rates in 2022.<blockquote>在上周三的一份报告中，一位策略师引用了一首老歌《收盘时间》，认为美联储是时候关掉刺激措施了……即使这意味着沉醉于轻松赚钱的投资者宿醉。格伦维尤信托公司首席投资官比尔·斯通认为，美联储可能会在年底前宣布缩减规模，并在2022年加息。</blockquote> The market agrees with Stone that the end of the 0% rate environment is on the horizon: According to the CME's fed funds futures, traders are pricing in a 57% chance of at least one rate hike by the end of next year.<blockquote>市场同意斯通的观点，即0%利率环境即将结束：根据芝商所的联邦基金期货，交易员预计到明年年底至少加息一次的可能性为57%。</blockquote> \"The Fed is in a pickle and there is so much evidence that they are wrong about inflation and that higher prices are less transitory than the Fed expects,\" said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer of Cetera Financial. \"They may have to accelerate the plan to raise rates.\"<blockquote>Cetera Financial首席投资官吉恩·戈德曼(Gene Goldman)表示：“美联储陷入了困境，有大量证据表明他们对通胀的看法是错误的，而且价格上涨并不像美联储预期的那样是短暂的。”“他们可能不得不加快加息计划。”</blockquote> If that's the case, then long-term bond yields — which have an impact on mortgage rates and other types of consumer and business loans — should continue to creep higher as well.<blockquote>如果是这样的话，那么长期债券收益率——对抵押贷款利率以及其他类型的消费者和商业贷款有影响——也应该会继续攀升。</blockquote> \"The 10-year yield should be higher in an environment with healthy inflation and an improving economy,\" said Jordan Kahn, president and chief investment officer of ACM Funds. \"Rates should rise because of that but I think they will go up gradually.\"<blockquote>ACM Funds总裁兼首席投资官乔丹·卡恩(Jordan Kahn)表示：“在通胀健康、经济改善的环境下，10年期国债收益率应该会更高。”“因此利率应该会上升，但我认为它们会逐渐上升。”</blockquote> Experts point out that the housing market remains strong and the jobs picture continues to improve too. Most notably, wages are still rising and were most recently up 3.6% from a year ago.<blockquote>专家指出，房地产市场依然强劲，就业形势也在继续改善。最值得注意的是，工资仍在上涨，最近比一年前上涨了3.6%。</blockquote> \"The dry kindling for sustained inflation is probably here,\" said Andrew Feltus, co-head of high yield at Amundi US. \"Banks have a lot of ammo to lend money. And wages are accelerating because the labor market is tight. This looks more than transitory.\"<blockquote>Amundi US高收益联席主管安德鲁·费尔图斯(Andrew Feltus)表示：“持续通胀的导火索可能就在这里。”“银行有很多弹药可以放贷。而且由于劳动力市场紧张，工资正在加速上涨。这看起来不仅仅是暂时的。”</blockquote> Economic slowdown fears haven't disappeared yet<blockquote>经济放缓的担忧尚未消失</blockquote> Still, some experts who remain convinced the \"transitory\" narrative about inflation is the right one.<blockquote>尽管如此，一些专家仍然相信关于通货膨胀的“暂时性”叙述是正确的。</blockquote> After all, Covid and Delta worries certainly haven't gone away — and it's possible consumers may change their behavior even if governments don't impose new lockdown measures.<blockquote>毕竟，Covid和Delta的担忧肯定还没有消失——即使政府不实施新的封锁措施，消费者也有可能改变他们的行为。</blockquote> \"Inflation fears should dissipate a bit as growth worries come into play because of the Delta variant. I think the Federal Reserve will be proven to be correct about inflation as being largely transitory,\" said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.<blockquote>纽约梅隆银行首席投资官Leo Grohowski表示：“随着德尔塔变异毒株对增长的担忧发挥作用，通胀担忧应该会有所消散。我认为美联储关于通胀在很大程度上是暂时的观点将被证明是正确的。”财富管理。</blockquote> Grohowski thinks current bond yields largely reflect expectations that inflation should be a little higher — \"but not out of control.\" He says a rate of about 2% to 3% over the next 12 months for consumer price increases seems reasonable.<blockquote>Grohowski认为，目前的债券收益率很大程度上反映了通胀应该略高的预期——“但不会失控”。他表示，未来12个月消费者价格上涨约2%至3%似乎是合理的。</blockquote> The big drop in the price of lumber recently is also a potential sign that worries about runaway 1970s-to-early-1980s-style inflation are overdone.<blockquote>最近木材价格的大幅下跌也是一个潜在的迹象，表明对20世纪70年代至80年代初式通货膨胀失控的担忧有些过头了。</blockquote> \"We're starting to see commodity prices roll over,\" said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at MissionSquare Retirement.<blockquote>MissionSquare Retirement首席投资官韦恩·威克(Wayne Wicker)表示：“我们开始看到大宗商品价格滚动。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/27/investing/inflation-interest-rates-bond-yields/index.html\">CNN</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/27/investing/inflation-interest-rates-bond-yields/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181409492","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Back in March, people were freaking out about rising long-term interest rates and inflation fears. But now the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back again.\nDoes this mean: So much for inflation worries? Maybe higher prices are in fact, to cite Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's favorite word, transitory after all?\nNot so fast.\nThere's a growing chorus of experts who believe that the Fed may need to reverse course and start talking more aggressively about tamping down inflation. After all, consumer prices continue to rise. The stock market is near a record high. Wages are going up too.\nInflation roaring back?\nAfter peaking around 1.77%, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has fallen back to about 1.24%.\nFears about the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 leading to another economic slowdown seem to be on the back burner for now. If anything, spiking Covid cases could cause more supply chain shocks that would lead to more inflation.\nThat all should push bond yields higher again and potentially lead the Fed to consider an end, or tapering, of its bond purchase program that has helped keep rates artificially low. After that, an interest rate hike would be the next logical step.\nIn a report last Wednesday, one strategist paraphrased the old Semisonic song \"Closing Time,\" arguing it's time for the Fed to turn out the lights on stimulus...even if it means a hangover for investors drunk on easy money. Bill Stone, chief investment officer of The Glenview Trust Company, thinks the Fed could announce tapering by the end of the year and raise rates in 2022.\nThe market agrees with Stone that the end of the 0% rate environment is on the horizon: According to the CME's fed funds futures, traders are pricing in a 57% chance of at least one rate hike by the end of next year.\n\"The Fed is in a pickle and there is so much evidence that they are wrong about inflation and that higher prices are less transitory than the Fed expects,\" said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer of Cetera Financial. \"They may have to accelerate the plan to raise rates.\"\nIf that's the case, then long-term bond yields — which have an impact on mortgage rates and other types of consumer and business loans — should continue to creep higher as well.\n\"The 10-year yield should be higher in an environment with healthy inflation and an improving economy,\" said Jordan Kahn, president and chief investment officer of ACM Funds. \"Rates should rise because of that but I think they will go up gradually.\"\nExperts point out that the housing market remains strong and the jobs picture continues to improve too. Most notably, wages are still rising and were most recently up 3.6% from a year ago.\n\"The dry kindling for sustained inflation is probably here,\" said Andrew Feltus, co-head of high yield at Amundi US. \"Banks have a lot of ammo to lend money. And wages are accelerating because the labor market is tight. This looks more than transitory.\"\nEconomic slowdown fears haven't disappeared yet\nStill, some experts who remain convinced the \"transitory\" narrative about inflation is the right one.\nAfter all, Covid and Delta worries certainly haven't gone away — and it's possible consumers may change their behavior even if governments don't impose new lockdown measures.\n\"Inflation fears should dissipate a bit as growth worries come into play because of the Delta variant. I think the Federal Reserve will be proven to be correct about inflation as being largely transitory,\" said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.\nGrohowski thinks current bond yields largely reflect expectations that inflation should be a little higher — \"but not out of control.\" He says a rate of about 2% to 3% over the next 12 months for consumer price increases seems reasonable.\nThe big drop in the price of lumber recently is also a potential sign that worries about runaway 1970s-to-early-1980s-style inflation are overdone.\n\"We're starting to see commodity prices roll over,\" said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at MissionSquare Retirement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Higher prices could be here to stay if the Fed doesn't act soon<blockquote>如果美联储不尽快采取行动，价格可能会持续上涨</blockquote>

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