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2021-08-02

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U.S. Dollar: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back<blockquote>美元：前进2步，后退1步</blockquote>

The US dollar had a difficult week, falling against nearly all the major currencies, recording new l

U.S. Dollar: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back<blockquote>美元：前进2步，后退1步</blockquote>

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Moreover, the Swiss franc's 1.5% advance was among the best, only outpaced by sterling (~1.6%).<blockquote>货币市场也没有明确支持通货再膨胀的论点。最弱的两种主要货币是澳元和新西兰元，如果通货再膨胀主题是关键驱动因素，预计这两种货币的相对表现会更好。此外，瑞士法郎1.5%的涨幅名列前茅，仅次于英镑（约1.6%）。</blockquote> Although the Federal Reserve was more confident that progress was being made toward its objectives, there was little new for investors.&nbsp;When everything was said and done, the10-year Treasury yieldremained within the range set on Monday to start the week (~1.22%-1.29%), which was within the range set in the previous week (~1.12%-1.31%). That said, the 10-year yield has fallen for five consecutive weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.<blockquote>尽管美联储对其目标正在取得进展更有信心，但对投资者来说并没有什么新消息。该说的都说了，该做的都做了，10年期国债收益率仍保持在周一本周初设定的范围内（约1.22%-1.29%），该范围也在前一周设定的范围内（约1.12%-1.31%）。也就是说，10年期国债收益率已连续五周下跌，过去11周中有10周下跌。</blockquote> We have been using the December 2022Eurodollar futurescontract to track US rate expectations.&nbsp;On July 2, the implied rose to a three-month high near 56 bp. It has fallen and finished last week at the lower end of the month's range near 40 bp. Given that three-month LIBOR is near 13 bp, a quarter-point hike at the end of next year remains fully discounted.<blockquote>我们一直在使用2022年12月欧洲美元期货合同跟踪美国利率预期。7月2日，隐含升至56BP附近的三个月高位。它已经下跌，上周收于本月区间的下限，接近40个基点。鉴于三个月期伦敦银行同业拆借利率接近13个基点，明年年底加息25个基点仍然完全打折。</blockquote> We now turn to the technical outlook for a few major currencies and the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan.&nbsp;Generally speaking, the technical condition of the foreign currencies has improved, and we expect it to carry over into August activity. In addition, a strong US&nbsp;jobs report&nbsp;is anticipated, and it will support speculation that at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August, Chair Powell will provide more guidance about the pace and composition of the Fed's bond purchases.<blockquote>我们现在转向几种主要货币以及墨西哥比索和人民币的技术前景。总体而言，外币的技术状况已经改善，我们预计这将延续到8月份的活动。此外，预计美国就业报告将强劲，这将支持人们的猜测，即在8月底的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔主席将就美联储债券购买的步伐和构成提供更多指导。</blockquote> Dollar Index:&nbsp;The Dollar Index threatened to decline in all five sessions last week, but after extending its losses ahead of the weekend, news that the US was suspending Chinese IPOs seemed to help stabilize it. However, the losses allowed it to meet the initial (38.2%) retracement of the rally (near 91.80) that began in late May near 89.55. The next retracement objective (50%) is found near 91.35, which is also around where the 200-day moving average begins the new month. The momentum indicators are falling, and the five-day moving average has pushed below the 20-day moving average for the first time since the first week in June. The 92.25 area offers initial resistance, with a more important cap by 92.55.<blockquote>美元指数：美元指数上周五个交易日都有下跌的危险，但在周末前扩大跌幅后，美国暂停中国IPO的消息似乎有助于稳定美元指数。然而，这些损失使其能够满足5月底开始的89.55附近反弹（91.80附近）的初始（38.2%）回撤。下一个回撤目标（50%）位于91.35附近，这也是新一个月开始的200日均线附近。动能指标在回落，5日均线自6月第一周以来首次下探至20日均线下方。92.25区域提供初始阻力，更重要的上限为92.55。</blockquote> Euro:&nbsp;The euro carved a trough in the $1.1750-$1.1760 area and briefly traded above $1.19, a new high for the month ahead of the weekend. The high was recorded before the eurozone reported stronger than expected Q2GDP(2.0 vs. 1.5% expected) and strong price pressures (2.2% in July vs. 2.0% expected), and a larger than expected decline in Juneunemployment(to 7.7% from a revised 8.0% in May). The single currency reversed lower in the waning hours of July's activity. Initial support is seen in the $1.1840-$1.1850 area, but a break of the $1.1820 could signal a retest of the trough. Above the $1.1910 area, formidable resistance is seen in the $1.1950-$1.2000 band.<blockquote>欧元：欧元在1.1750-1.1760美元区域触底，并短暂交投于1.19美元上方，为周末前的一个月新高。该高点是在欧元区公布强于预期的第二季度GDP（2.0 vs预期1.5%）和强劲的价格压力（7月份为2.2%vs预期2.0%）以及6月份失业率降幅大于预期（从修正后的7.7%降至5月份的8.0%）之前创下的。单一货币在7月份活动的最后几个小时逆转走低。最初的支撑位于1.1840-1.1850美元区域，但突破1.1820美元可能预示着重新测试低谷。在1.1910美元区域上方，1.1950-1.2000美元区间存在强大阻力。</blockquote> Japanese Yen:&nbsp;Over the last few weeks, the dollar has traded in a clear range of JPY109.00 to JPY110.70. The dollar recovered after initially slipping to eight-day lows (~JPY109.35) ahead of the weekend but spent the last two sessions below JPY110. The momentum indicators are not generating a clear signal. The MACD is at new lows in over-sold territory, while the Slow Stochastic appears to be turning lower after recovering toward the middle of the range. The exchange rate remains sensitive to US yields, and ahead of what is expected to be a strong employment report on August 6, the downside appears limited.<blockquote>日圆：过去几周，美元兑日元一直在109.00日元至110.70日元的明确区间内交易。美元在周末前最初跌至八日低点（约109.35日元）后回升，但在过去两个交易日跌破110日元。动量指标没有产生明确的信号。MACD处于超卖区域的新低，而慢速随机指标在恢复到区间中部后似乎正在走低。汇率对美国收益率仍然敏感，在8月6日预计将公布强劲的就业报告之前，下行空间似乎有限。</blockquote> British Pound:&nbsp;Sterling's sharp recovery faltered ahead of $1.40 before the weekend. It had been sold to its lowest level since early February on July 20 near $1.3570. The important retracement objective (61.8%) of sterling's retreat since the multiyear high was recorded on June 1 near $1.4250 was found slightly below $1.40, which is also near the upper Bollinger® Band, which is moving higher. A convincing move above it would bring the focus back to the highs. The MACD is trending higher and is in the middle of the range, while the Slow Stochastic is getting stretched. Despite the minor loss ahead of the weekend that snapped a four-day advance, the weekly gain of around 1.3% was the biggest of the year.<blockquote>英镑：英镑的大幅反弹在周末前跌破1.40美元。7月20日，该指数跌至2月初以来的最低水平，接近1.3570美元。自6月1日创下1.4250美元附近的多年高点以来，英镑回撤的重要回撤目标（61.8%）略低于1.40美元，也接近布林线上方®波段，正在走高。令人信服的突破将使焦点回到高点。MACD呈走高趋势，处于区间中间，而慢速随机指标正在被拉伸。尽管周末前小幅下跌，结束了连续四天的上涨，但1.3%左右的周涨幅是今年最大的。</blockquote> Canadian Dollar:&nbsp;The Canadian dollar gained about 1.1% against the US dollar last week. It was the first back-to-back weekly gain since late May. The US dollar recovered from six-year lows (~CAD1.20) on June 1 and peaked on July 19, a little above CAD1.28. However, it took two weeks for it to give up half of those gains, and the greenback approached CAD1.2425 ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. The momentum indicators are trending lower, and the five-day moving average (~CAD1.2510) has moved below the 20-day moving average (~CAD1.2530) for the first time since early June. The next retracement target (61.8%) is near CAD1.2315.<blockquote>加元：上周加元兑美元上涨约1.1%。这是自5月下旬以来首次连续周上涨。美元从6月1日的六年低点（约1.20加元）回升，并于7月19日达到峰值，略高于1.28加元。然而，它花了两周时间才回吐了一半涨幅，美元在周末前逼近1.2425加元，为7月6日以来的最低水平。动量指标呈走低趋势，五日均线（~1.2510加元）自6月初以来首次跌破20日均线（~1.2530加元）。下一个回撤目标（61.8%）在1.2315加元附近。</blockquote> Australian Dollar:&nbsp;The Australian dollar disappointed. Despite poking above $0.7400 for the first time in two weeks, the Aussie finished the week lower to extend its losing streak for a fifth consecutive week. It was the only major currency that fell against the US dollar last week. The New Zealand dollar was the next weakest. It was unchanged after falling for the previous four weeks. The lockdown in Sydney has been extended until the end of August, and the&nbsp;Reserve Bank of Australia&nbsp;will likely abort plans to reduce its bond-buying. Instead, it will likely provide more support, probably via increased bond purchases. The momentum indicators are not particularly helpful presenting and are still rising. Initial support is seen in around $0.7335 before the low for the year set July 21 (before posting a key upside reversal) near $0.7290.<blockquote>澳元：澳元大失所望。尽管两周来首次突破0.7400美元，但澳元本周收低，连续第五周延续跌势。它是上周唯一兑美元下跌的主要货币。新西兰元紧随其后。在前四周下跌后没有变化。悉尼的封锁已延长至8月底，澳大利亚央行可能会放弃减少债券购买的计划。相反，它可能会提供更多支持，可能是通过增加债券购买。动量指标对呈现不是特别有帮助，并且仍在上升。最初的支撑位在0.7335美元左右，然后是7月21日创下的年内低点（在出现关键的上行逆转之前）接近0.7290美元。</blockquote> Mexican Peso:&nbsp;The US dollar has ground lower against the peso for seven consecutive sessions and tested the MXN19.80 level ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. A late recovery by the greenback prevented the decline from extending for an eighth session. The MACD is hovering near zero, and the Slow Stochastic is trending lower. The late June and early July lows form a band of congestion in the MXN19.70-MXN19.75. The JP Morgan, Emerging Market Currency Index ended a four-week slide with a 0.60% gain to close out the month. The benchmark fell a little more than 0.90% in July, while the peso appreciated by about 0.35%. Political risks weighed on thePeruvian solthat got tagged for 3.5% last week and 5% in July.<blockquote>墨西哥比索：美元兑比索连续七个交易日走低，并在周末前测试了19.80马币的水平，为7月6日以来的最低水平。美元后期回升阻止了跌势延续第八个交易日。MACD徘徊在零附近，慢速随机指标呈走低趋势。6月底和7月初的低点在MXN19.70-MXN19.75形成了一个拥挤带。摩根大通新兴市场货币指数结束了连续四周的下滑，本月收盘上涨0.60%。该基准在7月份下跌了0.90%多一点，而比索升值了约0.35%。政治风险令秘鲁索尔承压，上周和7月份分别为3.5%和5%。</blockquote> Chinese Yuan:&nbsp;The yuan's sharp recovery after falling to three-month lows was sufficient to lift it on the week to snap an eight-week slide. We have been tracking a range since late June between CNY6.45 and CNY6.4950. The sell-off in Chinese bonds and stocks saw the dollar rise to CNY6.5125 on July 27, just shy of the 200-day moving average (~CNY6.5170). Efforts by Chinese officials to restore calm and a broader retreat in the US dollar saw the greenback return to almost CNY6.45 ahead of the weekend. It was an unusually wide range for the dollar last week, and the historical (actual) volatility last week reached almost 7.5%, its highest this year. To re-attract global capital flows, Chinese officials may want to boost the attractiveness by signaling tolerance of a stronger yuan. A break of the CNY6.45 area would target the CNY6.4000-CNY6.4200 area.<blockquote>人民币：人民币在跌至三个月低点后大幅回升，足以在本周将其拉升至连续八周下滑的snap。自6月底以来，我们一直跟踪6.45元至6.4950元之间的区间。7月27日，中国债券和股票遭到抛售，美元兑人民币汇率升至6.5125元，略低于200日移动平均线（约6.5170元）。中国官员为恢复平静所做的努力以及美元更广泛的回落，使得美元在周末前回到了近6.45元人民币。上周美元的波动幅度异常大，上周的历史（实际）波动率几乎达到7.5%，为今年以来的最高水平。为了重新吸引全球资本流动，中国官员可能希望通过发出容忍人民币走强的信号来提高人民币的吸引力。突破6.45元人民币区域将瞄准6.4000-6.4200元人民币区域。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Dollar: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back<blockquote>美元：前进2步，后退1步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dollar: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back<blockquote>美元：前进2步，后退1步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\ninvesting.com2021-08-02 13:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe US dollar had a difficult week, falling against nearly all the major currencies, recording new lows for the month against the euro,Swiss franc, and sterling among the major currencies.&nbsp;Indeed, the euro and sterling gains were sufficient to erase the earlier losses to post an advance for July.<blockquote>美元度过了艰难的一周，兑几乎所有主要货币均下跌，兑欧元创下本月新低，瑞士法郎以及主要货币中的英镑。事实上，欧元和英镑的上涨足以抹去早些时候的损失，从而实现7月份的上涨。</blockquote> It is difficult to find a common theme through the capital markets.&nbsp;There is much talk about new interest in the reflation trade, but the decline in rates and second consecutive weekly decline in the&nbsp;MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index&nbsp;do not line up well, even though the US&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> and&nbsp;NASDAQ&nbsp;and Europe's Dow Jones&nbsp;Stoxx 600&nbsp;set new record highs last week.<blockquote>通过资本市场很难找到一个共同的主题。人们对通货再膨胀交易的新兴趣有很多讨论，但利率下降和摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场股票指数连续第二周下跌并不一致，尽管美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>纳斯达克和欧洲道琼斯斯托克600指数上周创下历史新高。</blockquote> Nor did the currency markets give unequivocal support for the reflation thesis.&nbsp;The weakest two major currencies were the Australian and&nbsp;New Zealand&nbsp;dollars, which would have been expected to have a better relative performance if the reflation theme was the key driver. Moreover, the Swiss franc's 1.5% advance was among the best, only outpaced by sterling (~1.6%).<blockquote>货币市场也没有明确支持通货再膨胀的论点。最弱的两种主要货币是澳元和新西兰元，如果通货再膨胀主题是关键驱动因素，预计这两种货币的相对表现会更好。此外，瑞士法郎1.5%的涨幅名列前茅，仅次于英镑（约1.6%）。</blockquote> Although the Federal Reserve was more confident that progress was being made toward its objectives, there was little new for investors.&nbsp;When everything was said and done, the10-year Treasury yieldremained within the range set on Monday to start the week (~1.22%-1.29%), which was within the range set in the previous week (~1.12%-1.31%). That said, the 10-year yield has fallen for five consecutive weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.<blockquote>尽管美联储对其目标正在取得进展更有信心，但对投资者来说并没有什么新消息。该说的都说了，该做的都做了，10年期国债收益率仍保持在周一本周初设定的范围内（约1.22%-1.29%），该范围也在前一周设定的范围内（约1.12%-1.31%）。也就是说，10年期国债收益率已连续五周下跌，过去11周中有10周下跌。</blockquote> We have been using the December 2022Eurodollar futurescontract to track US rate expectations.&nbsp;On July 2, the implied rose to a three-month high near 56 bp. It has fallen and finished last week at the lower end of the month's range near 40 bp. Given that three-month LIBOR is near 13 bp, a quarter-point hike at the end of next year remains fully discounted.<blockquote>我们一直在使用2022年12月欧洲美元期货合同跟踪美国利率预期。7月2日，隐含升至56BP附近的三个月高位。它已经下跌，上周收于本月区间的下限，接近40个基点。鉴于三个月期伦敦银行同业拆借利率接近13个基点，明年年底加息25个基点仍然完全打折。</blockquote> We now turn to the technical outlook for a few major currencies and the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan.&nbsp;Generally speaking, the technical condition of the foreign currencies has improved, and we expect it to carry over into August activity. In addition, a strong US&nbsp;jobs report&nbsp;is anticipated, and it will support speculation that at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August, Chair Powell will provide more guidance about the pace and composition of the Fed's bond purchases.<blockquote>我们现在转向几种主要货币以及墨西哥比索和人民币的技术前景。总体而言，外币的技术状况已经改善，我们预计这将延续到8月份的活动。此外，预计美国就业报告将强劲，这将支持人们的猜测，即在8月底的杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔主席将就美联储债券购买的步伐和构成提供更多指导。</blockquote> Dollar Index:&nbsp;The Dollar Index threatened to decline in all five sessions last week, but after extending its losses ahead of the weekend, news that the US was suspending Chinese IPOs seemed to help stabilize it. However, the losses allowed it to meet the initial (38.2%) retracement of the rally (near 91.80) that began in late May near 89.55. The next retracement objective (50%) is found near 91.35, which is also around where the 200-day moving average begins the new month. The momentum indicators are falling, and the five-day moving average has pushed below the 20-day moving average for the first time since the first week in June. The 92.25 area offers initial resistance, with a more important cap by 92.55.<blockquote>美元指数：美元指数上周五个交易日都有下跌的危险，但在周末前扩大跌幅后，美国暂停中国IPO的消息似乎有助于稳定美元指数。然而，这些损失使其能够满足5月底开始的89.55附近反弹（91.80附近）的初始（38.2%）回撤。下一个回撤目标（50%）位于91.35附近，这也是新一个月开始的200日均线附近。动能指标在回落，5日均线自6月第一周以来首次下探至20日均线下方。92.25区域提供初始阻力，更重要的上限为92.55。</blockquote> Euro:&nbsp;The euro carved a trough in the $1.1750-$1.1760 area and briefly traded above $1.19, a new high for the month ahead of the weekend. The high was recorded before the eurozone reported stronger than expected Q2GDP(2.0 vs. 1.5% expected) and strong price pressures (2.2% in July vs. 2.0% expected), and a larger than expected decline in Juneunemployment(to 7.7% from a revised 8.0% in May). The single currency reversed lower in the waning hours of July's activity. Initial support is seen in the $1.1840-$1.1850 area, but a break of the $1.1820 could signal a retest of the trough. Above the $1.1910 area, formidable resistance is seen in the $1.1950-$1.2000 band.<blockquote>欧元：欧元在1.1750-1.1760美元区域触底，并短暂交投于1.19美元上方，为周末前的一个月新高。该高点是在欧元区公布强于预期的第二季度GDP（2.0 vs预期1.5%）和强劲的价格压力（7月份为2.2%vs预期2.0%）以及6月份失业率降幅大于预期（从修正后的7.7%降至5月份的8.0%）之前创下的。单一货币在7月份活动的最后几个小时逆转走低。最初的支撑位于1.1840-1.1850美元区域，但突破1.1820美元可能预示着重新测试低谷。在1.1910美元区域上方，1.1950-1.2000美元区间存在强大阻力。</blockquote> Japanese Yen:&nbsp;Over the last few weeks, the dollar has traded in a clear range of JPY109.00 to JPY110.70. The dollar recovered after initially slipping to eight-day lows (~JPY109.35) ahead of the weekend but spent the last two sessions below JPY110. The momentum indicators are not generating a clear signal. The MACD is at new lows in over-sold territory, while the Slow Stochastic appears to be turning lower after recovering toward the middle of the range. The exchange rate remains sensitive to US yields, and ahead of what is expected to be a strong employment report on August 6, the downside appears limited.<blockquote>日圆：过去几周，美元兑日元一直在109.00日元至110.70日元的明确区间内交易。美元在周末前最初跌至八日低点（约109.35日元）后回升，但在过去两个交易日跌破110日元。动量指标没有产生明确的信号。MACD处于超卖区域的新低，而慢速随机指标在恢复到区间中部后似乎正在走低。汇率对美国收益率仍然敏感，在8月6日预计将公布强劲的就业报告之前，下行空间似乎有限。</blockquote> British Pound:&nbsp;Sterling's sharp recovery faltered ahead of $1.40 before the weekend. It had been sold to its lowest level since early February on July 20 near $1.3570. The important retracement objective (61.8%) of sterling's retreat since the multiyear high was recorded on June 1 near $1.4250 was found slightly below $1.40, which is also near the upper Bollinger® Band, which is moving higher. A convincing move above it would bring the focus back to the highs. The MACD is trending higher and is in the middle of the range, while the Slow Stochastic is getting stretched. Despite the minor loss ahead of the weekend that snapped a four-day advance, the weekly gain of around 1.3% was the biggest of the year.<blockquote>英镑：英镑的大幅反弹在周末前跌破1.40美元。7月20日，该指数跌至2月初以来的最低水平，接近1.3570美元。自6月1日创下1.4250美元附近的多年高点以来，英镑回撤的重要回撤目标（61.8%）略低于1.40美元，也接近布林线上方®波段，正在走高。令人信服的突破将使焦点回到高点。MACD呈走高趋势，处于区间中间，而慢速随机指标正在被拉伸。尽管周末前小幅下跌，结束了连续四天的上涨，但1.3%左右的周涨幅是今年最大的。</blockquote> Canadian Dollar:&nbsp;The Canadian dollar gained about 1.1% against the US dollar last week. It was the first back-to-back weekly gain since late May. The US dollar recovered from six-year lows (~CAD1.20) on June 1 and peaked on July 19, a little above CAD1.28. However, it took two weeks for it to give up half of those gains, and the greenback approached CAD1.2425 ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. The momentum indicators are trending lower, and the five-day moving average (~CAD1.2510) has moved below the 20-day moving average (~CAD1.2530) for the first time since early June. The next retracement target (61.8%) is near CAD1.2315.<blockquote>加元：上周加元兑美元上涨约1.1%。这是自5月下旬以来首次连续周上涨。美元从6月1日的六年低点（约1.20加元）回升，并于7月19日达到峰值，略高于1.28加元。然而，它花了两周时间才回吐了一半涨幅，美元在周末前逼近1.2425加元，为7月6日以来的最低水平。动量指标呈走低趋势，五日均线（~1.2510加元）自6月初以来首次跌破20日均线（~1.2530加元）。下一个回撤目标（61.8%）在1.2315加元附近。</blockquote> Australian Dollar:&nbsp;The Australian dollar disappointed. Despite poking above $0.7400 for the first time in two weeks, the Aussie finished the week lower to extend its losing streak for a fifth consecutive week. It was the only major currency that fell against the US dollar last week. The New Zealand dollar was the next weakest. It was unchanged after falling for the previous four weeks. The lockdown in Sydney has been extended until the end of August, and the&nbsp;Reserve Bank of Australia&nbsp;will likely abort plans to reduce its bond-buying. Instead, it will likely provide more support, probably via increased bond purchases. The momentum indicators are not particularly helpful presenting and are still rising. Initial support is seen in around $0.7335 before the low for the year set July 21 (before posting a key upside reversal) near $0.7290.<blockquote>澳元：澳元大失所望。尽管两周来首次突破0.7400美元，但澳元本周收低，连续第五周延续跌势。它是上周唯一兑美元下跌的主要货币。新西兰元紧随其后。在前四周下跌后没有变化。悉尼的封锁已延长至8月底，澳大利亚央行可能会放弃减少债券购买的计划。相反，它可能会提供更多支持，可能是通过增加债券购买。动量指标对呈现不是特别有帮助，并且仍在上升。最初的支撑位在0.7335美元左右，然后是7月21日创下的年内低点（在出现关键的上行逆转之前）接近0.7290美元。</blockquote> Mexican Peso:&nbsp;The US dollar has ground lower against the peso for seven consecutive sessions and tested the MXN19.80 level ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. A late recovery by the greenback prevented the decline from extending for an eighth session. The MACD is hovering near zero, and the Slow Stochastic is trending lower. The late June and early July lows form a band of congestion in the MXN19.70-MXN19.75. The JP Morgan, Emerging Market Currency Index ended a four-week slide with a 0.60% gain to close out the month. The benchmark fell a little more than 0.90% in July, while the peso appreciated by about 0.35%. Political risks weighed on thePeruvian solthat got tagged for 3.5% last week and 5% in July.<blockquote>墨西哥比索：美元兑比索连续七个交易日走低，并在周末前测试了19.80马币的水平，为7月6日以来的最低水平。美元后期回升阻止了跌势延续第八个交易日。MACD徘徊在零附近，慢速随机指标呈走低趋势。6月底和7月初的低点在MXN19.70-MXN19.75形成了一个拥挤带。摩根大通新兴市场货币指数结束了连续四周的下滑，本月收盘上涨0.60%。该基准在7月份下跌了0.90%多一点，而比索升值了约0.35%。政治风险令秘鲁索尔承压，上周和7月份分别为3.5%和5%。</blockquote> Chinese Yuan:&nbsp;The yuan's sharp recovery after falling to three-month lows was sufficient to lift it on the week to snap an eight-week slide. We have been tracking a range since late June between CNY6.45 and CNY6.4950. The sell-off in Chinese bonds and stocks saw the dollar rise to CNY6.5125 on July 27, just shy of the 200-day moving average (~CNY6.5170). Efforts by Chinese officials to restore calm and a broader retreat in the US dollar saw the greenback return to almost CNY6.45 ahead of the weekend. It was an unusually wide range for the dollar last week, and the historical (actual) volatility last week reached almost 7.5%, its highest this year. To re-attract global capital flows, Chinese officials may want to boost the attractiveness by signaling tolerance of a stronger yuan. A break of the CNY6.45 area would target the CNY6.4000-CNY6.4200 area.<blockquote>人民币：人民币在跌至三个月低点后大幅回升，足以在本周将其拉升至连续八周下滑的snap。自6月底以来，我们一直跟踪6.45元至6.4950元之间的区间。7月27日，中国债券和股票遭到抛售，美元兑人民币汇率升至6.5125元，略低于200日移动平均线（约6.5170元）。中国官员为恢复平静所做的努力以及美元更广泛的回落，使得美元在周末前回到了近6.45元人民币。上周美元的波动幅度异常大，上周的历史（实际）波动率几乎达到7.5%，为今年以来的最高水平。为了重新吸引全球资本流动，中国官员可能希望通过发出容忍人民币走强的信号来提高人民币的吸引力。突破6.45元人民币区域将瞄准6.4000-6.4200元人民币区域。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-dollar-2-steps-forward-1-step-back-200595276\">investing.com</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/us-dollar-2-steps-forward-1-step-back-200595276","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154088483","content_text":"The US dollar had a difficult week, falling against nearly all the major currencies, recording new lows for the month against the euro,Swiss franc, and sterling among the major currencies. Indeed, the euro and sterling gains were sufficient to erase the earlier losses to post an advance for July.\nIt is difficult to find a common theme through the capital markets. There is much talk about new interest in the reflation trade, but the decline in rates and second consecutive weekly decline in the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index do not line up well, even though the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 set new record highs last week.\nNor did the currency markets give unequivocal support for the reflation thesis. The weakest two major currencies were the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which would have been expected to have a better relative performance if the reflation theme was the key driver. Moreover, the Swiss franc's 1.5% advance was among the best, only outpaced by sterling (~1.6%).\nAlthough the Federal Reserve was more confident that progress was being made toward its objectives, there was little new for investors. When everything was said and done, the10-year Treasury yieldremained within the range set on Monday to start the week (~1.22%-1.29%), which was within the range set in the previous week (~1.12%-1.31%). That said, the 10-year yield has fallen for five consecutive weeks and 10 of the past 11 weeks.\nWe have been using the December 2022Eurodollar futurescontract to track US rate expectations. On July 2, the implied rose to a three-month high near 56 bp. It has fallen and finished last week at the lower end of the month's range near 40 bp. Given that three-month LIBOR is near 13 bp, a quarter-point hike at the end of next year remains fully discounted.\nWe now turn to the technical outlook for a few major currencies and the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan. Generally speaking, the technical condition of the foreign currencies has improved, and we expect it to carry over into August activity. In addition, a strong US jobs report is anticipated, and it will support speculation that at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August, Chair Powell will provide more guidance about the pace and composition of the Fed's bond purchases.\nDollar Index: The Dollar Index threatened to decline in all five sessions last week, but after extending its losses ahead of the weekend, news that the US was suspending Chinese IPOs seemed to help stabilize it. However, the losses allowed it to meet the initial (38.2%) retracement of the rally (near 91.80) that began in late May near 89.55. The next retracement objective (50%) is found near 91.35, which is also around where the 200-day moving average begins the new month. The momentum indicators are falling, and the five-day moving average has pushed below the 20-day moving average for the first time since the first week in June. The 92.25 area offers initial resistance, with a more important cap by 92.55.\nEuro: The euro carved a trough in the $1.1750-$1.1760 area and briefly traded above $1.19, a new high for the month ahead of the weekend. The high was recorded before the eurozone reported stronger than expected Q2GDP(2.0 vs. 1.5% expected) and strong price pressures (2.2% in July vs. 2.0% expected), and a larger than expected decline in Juneunemployment(to 7.7% from a revised 8.0% in May). The single currency reversed lower in the waning hours of July's activity. Initial support is seen in the $1.1840-$1.1850 area, but a break of the $1.1820 could signal a retest of the trough. Above the $1.1910 area, formidable resistance is seen in the $1.1950-$1.2000 band.\nJapanese Yen: Over the last few weeks, the dollar has traded in a clear range of JPY109.00 to JPY110.70. The dollar recovered after initially slipping to eight-day lows (~JPY109.35) ahead of the weekend but spent the last two sessions below JPY110. The momentum indicators are not generating a clear signal. The MACD is at new lows in over-sold territory, while the Slow Stochastic appears to be turning lower after recovering toward the middle of the range. The exchange rate remains sensitive to US yields, and ahead of what is expected to be a strong employment report on August 6, the downside appears limited.\nBritish Pound: Sterling's sharp recovery faltered ahead of $1.40 before the weekend. It had been sold to its lowest level since early February on July 20 near $1.3570. The important retracement objective (61.8%) of sterling's retreat since the multiyear high was recorded on June 1 near $1.4250 was found slightly below $1.40, which is also near the upper Bollinger® Band, which is moving higher. A convincing move above it would bring the focus back to the highs. The MACD is trending higher and is in the middle of the range, while the Slow Stochastic is getting stretched. Despite the minor loss ahead of the weekend that snapped a four-day advance, the weekly gain of around 1.3% was the biggest of the year.\nCanadian Dollar: The Canadian dollar gained about 1.1% against the US dollar last week. It was the first back-to-back weekly gain since late May. The US dollar recovered from six-year lows (~CAD1.20) on June 1 and peaked on July 19, a little above CAD1.28. However, it took two weeks for it to give up half of those gains, and the greenback approached CAD1.2425 ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. The momentum indicators are trending lower, and the five-day moving average (~CAD1.2510) has moved below the 20-day moving average (~CAD1.2530) for the first time since early June. The next retracement target (61.8%) is near CAD1.2315.\nAustralian Dollar: The Australian dollar disappointed. Despite poking above $0.7400 for the first time in two weeks, the Aussie finished the week lower to extend its losing streak for a fifth consecutive week. It was the only major currency that fell against the US dollar last week. The New Zealand dollar was the next weakest. It was unchanged after falling for the previous four weeks. The lockdown in Sydney has been extended until the end of August, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely abort plans to reduce its bond-buying. Instead, it will likely provide more support, probably via increased bond purchases. The momentum indicators are not particularly helpful presenting and are still rising. Initial support is seen in around $0.7335 before the low for the year set July 21 (before posting a key upside reversal) near $0.7290.\nMexican Peso: The US dollar has ground lower against the peso for seven consecutive sessions and tested the MXN19.80 level ahead of the weekend, its lowest level since July 6. A late recovery by the greenback prevented the decline from extending for an eighth session. The MACD is hovering near zero, and the Slow Stochastic is trending lower. The late June and early July lows form a band of congestion in the MXN19.70-MXN19.75. The JP Morgan, Emerging Market Currency Index ended a four-week slide with a 0.60% gain to close out the month. The benchmark fell a little more than 0.90% in July, while the peso appreciated by about 0.35%. Political risks weighed on thePeruvian solthat got tagged for 3.5% last week and 5% in July.\nChinese Yuan: The yuan's sharp recovery after falling to three-month lows was sufficient to lift it on the week to snap an eight-week slide. We have been tracking a range since late June between CNY6.45 and CNY6.4950. The sell-off in Chinese bonds and stocks saw the dollar rise to CNY6.5125 on July 27, just shy of the 200-day moving average (~CNY6.5170). Efforts by Chinese officials to restore calm and a broader retreat in the US dollar saw the greenback return to almost CNY6.45 ahead of the weekend. It was an unusually wide range for the dollar last week, and the historical (actual) volatility last week reached almost 7.5%, its highest this year. To re-attract global capital flows, Chinese officials may want to boost the attractiveness by signaling tolerance of a stronger yuan. A break of the CNY6.45 area would target the CNY6.4000-CNY6.4200 area.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"FXB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

U.S. Dollar: 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back<blockquote>美元：前进2步，后退1步</blockquote>

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