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2021-09-06

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Central Bankers Are Right: This Is Not Your Father’s Inflation<blockquote>央行行长是对的：这不是你父亲的通货膨胀</blockquote>

Central bankers keep shrugging off the current spike in inflation as a temporary phenomenon, and the

Central Bankers Are Right: This Is Not Your Father’s Inflation<blockquote>央行行长是对的：这不是你父亲的通货膨胀</blockquote>

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And beyond that, it will keep buying bonds under the regular asset-purchase program it launched in 2014 to help it meet its inflation target.<blockquote>即使欧元区通胀率现已达到十年来最高的3%，欧洲央行仍将继续其针对大流行的计划，直至明年3月按计划结束。除此之外，它将继续根据2014年推出的常规资产购买计划购买债券，以帮助其实现通胀目标。</blockquote> The debate about tapering has never been about whether or not it will happen — it will, and it should, since central banks must shrink their massive balance sheets if they want to be able to meet future major crises with the type of efficiency they demonstrated when faced with the coronavirus pandemic. The immediate question is rather whether or not they should speed up the phasing out of quantitative easing because of the supposed return of inflation.<blockquote>关于缩减规模的争论从来都不是关于它是否会发生——它会发生，也应该发生，因为如果各国央行希望能够以他们在面对冠状病毒大流行时表现出的效率来应对未来的重大危机，它们就必须缩减其庞大的资产负债表。眼下的问题是，他们是否应该因为通胀的回归而加快逐步取消量化宽松政策。</blockquote> A string of surveys of business managers released last week showed that inflation isn’t only due to oil prices catching up after historic lows last year, or some goods becoming more expensive because consumers are finally spending the money they were forced to save during the many lockdowns of the past 18 months.<blockquote>上周发布的一系列企业经理调查显示，通胀不仅仅是由于油价在去年的历史低点后回升，或者一些商品变得更加昂贵，因为消费者终于花掉了他们在过去18个月的多次封锁期间被迫储蓄的钱。</blockquote> Cost inflation is now putting pressure on businesses, and they in turn have to choose whether they pass it on to their customers, or compress their margins by putting a priority on preserving market shares.<blockquote>成本上涨现在给企业带来了压力，他们反过来必须选择是将成本转嫁给客户，还是通过优先保护市场份额来压缩利润。</blockquote> A slow spread of inflation throughout the economy could then contribute to make it more pervasive, and push price expectations for the future even higher among both businesses and consumers, who might in turn seek higher wages.<blockquote>通胀在整个经济中的缓慢蔓延可能会使其更加普遍，并推高企业和消费者对未来的价格预期，而消费者可能会寻求更高的工资。</blockquote> But is that a credible threat? Catherine Mann, the former Citibank chief economist who is now a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, cautioned Monday that we should not look at the current inflation through the eyes of the traumatized generation that endured the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.<blockquote>但这是一个可信的威胁吗？前花旗银行首席经济学家、现任英国央行货币政策委员会成员凯瑟琳·曼(Catherine Mann)周一警告称，我们不应通过遭受20世纪70年代两位数通胀的受创伤一代人的眼睛来看待当前的通胀。</blockquote> Today is different, Mann explained, in part because wages and prices were more closely indexed to each other back then, and because labor markets and wages were more tightly interrelated.<blockquote>曼恩解释说，今天不同了，部分原因是当时工资和价格的指数更加紧密，而且劳动力市场和工资的相关性更加紧密。</blockquote> Furthermore, she added, companies today are more reluctant to pass on cost inflation to their customers and clients.<blockquote>此外，她补充说，如今的公司更不愿意将成本通胀转嫁给顾客和客户。</blockquote> But how long will businesses hold? Europe and the U.S. may diverge here. According to IHS Markit ‘s most recent Purchasing Managers Index, the pace of inflation cost is at a record high in U.S. manufacturing, and “favorable demand conditions allowed finished goods prices to also rise at an unprecedented rate, as firms sought to protect their margins,” noted IHS chief economist Siân Jones last week. In the eurozone, on the other hand, IHS Markit noted “a slight cooling of input cost inflation.”<blockquote>但是企业能坚持多久呢？欧洲和美国在这方面可能会有所不同。根据IHS Markit最新的采购经理人指数，美国制造业的通胀成本速度创历史新高，“有利的需求条件使得制成品价格也以前所未有的速度上涨，因为企业寻求保护其利润，”指出IHS首席经济学家西安·琼斯上周。另一方面，在欧元区，IHS Markit指出“投入成本通胀略有降温”。</blockquote> To “promote effectively the goal of maximum employment” is the first aim assigned to the Fed under its mandate from Congress, whereas the ECB’s sole remit is to achieve stable prices — which it has defined as an annual inflation of 2%. Both can find good reasons in the latest numbers or surveys to continue their bond purchases for now.<blockquote>“有效促进最大就业目标”是国会授权赋予美联储的第一个目标，而欧洲央行的唯一职责是实现物价稳定——它将物价稳定定义为年通胀率2%。双方都可以从最新数据或调查中找到充分的理由继续购买债券。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central Bankers Are Right: This Is Not Your Father’s Inflation<blockquote>央行行长是对的：这不是你父亲的通货膨胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Bankers Are Right: This Is Not Your Father’s Inflation<blockquote>央行行长是对的：这不是你父亲的通货膨胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-09-06 19:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCentral bankers keep shrugging off the current spike in inflation as a temporary phenomenon, and they have some good reasons to do so. <blockquote>央行行长们一直对当前通胀飙升视为暂时现象不屑一顾，他们这样做有一些很好的理由。</blockquote> A weak jobs report in the U.S. last week has cooled off talks about tapering — the phasing out of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program. <blockquote>上周美国疲软的就业报告让有关缩减（美联储逐步取消债券购买计划）的讨论降温。</blockquote> And even if inflation in the eurozone has now reached a decade-high annual 3%, the European Central Bank will continue its pandemic-specific program until its scheduled end in March next year. And beyond that, it will keep buying bonds under the regular asset-purchase program it launched in 2014 to help it meet its inflation target.<blockquote>即使欧元区通胀率现已达到十年来最高的3%，欧洲央行仍将继续其针对大流行的计划，直至明年3月按计划结束。除此之外，它将继续根据2014年推出的常规资产购买计划购买债券，以帮助其实现通胀目标。</blockquote> The debate about tapering has never been about whether or not it will happen — it will, and it should, since central banks must shrink their massive balance sheets if they want to be able to meet future major crises with the type of efficiency they demonstrated when faced with the coronavirus pandemic. The immediate question is rather whether or not they should speed up the phasing out of quantitative easing because of the supposed return of inflation.<blockquote>关于缩减规模的争论从来都不是关于它是否会发生——它会发生，也应该发生，因为如果各国央行希望能够以他们在面对冠状病毒大流行时表现出的效率来应对未来的重大危机，它们就必须缩减其庞大的资产负债表。眼下的问题是，他们是否应该因为通胀的回归而加快逐步取消量化宽松政策。</blockquote> A string of surveys of business managers released last week showed that inflation isn’t only due to oil prices catching up after historic lows last year, or some goods becoming more expensive because consumers are finally spending the money they were forced to save during the many lockdowns of the past 18 months.<blockquote>上周发布的一系列企业经理调查显示，通胀不仅仅是由于油价在去年的历史低点后回升，或者一些商品变得更加昂贵，因为消费者终于花掉了他们在过去18个月的多次封锁期间被迫储蓄的钱。</blockquote> Cost inflation is now putting pressure on businesses, and they in turn have to choose whether they pass it on to their customers, or compress their margins by putting a priority on preserving market shares.<blockquote>成本上涨现在给企业带来了压力，他们反过来必须选择是将成本转嫁给客户，还是通过优先保护市场份额来压缩利润。</blockquote> A slow spread of inflation throughout the economy could then contribute to make it more pervasive, and push price expectations for the future even higher among both businesses and consumers, who might in turn seek higher wages.<blockquote>通胀在整个经济中的缓慢蔓延可能会使其更加普遍，并推高企业和消费者对未来的价格预期，而消费者可能会寻求更高的工资。</blockquote> But is that a credible threat? Catherine Mann, the former Citibank chief economist who is now a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, cautioned Monday that we should not look at the current inflation through the eyes of the traumatized generation that endured the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.<blockquote>但这是一个可信的威胁吗？前花旗银行首席经济学家、现任英国央行货币政策委员会成员凯瑟琳·曼(Catherine Mann)周一警告称，我们不应通过遭受20世纪70年代两位数通胀的受创伤一代人的眼睛来看待当前的通胀。</blockquote> Today is different, Mann explained, in part because wages and prices were more closely indexed to each other back then, and because labor markets and wages were more tightly interrelated.<blockquote>曼恩解释说，今天不同了，部分原因是当时工资和价格的指数更加紧密，而且劳动力市场和工资的相关性更加紧密。</blockquote> Furthermore, she added, companies today are more reluctant to pass on cost inflation to their customers and clients.<blockquote>此外，她补充说，如今的公司更不愿意将成本通胀转嫁给顾客和客户。</blockquote> But how long will businesses hold? Europe and the U.S. may diverge here. According to IHS Markit ‘s most recent Purchasing Managers Index, the pace of inflation cost is at a record high in U.S. manufacturing, and “favorable demand conditions allowed finished goods prices to also rise at an unprecedented rate, as firms sought to protect their margins,” noted IHS chief economist Siân Jones last week. In the eurozone, on the other hand, IHS Markit noted “a slight cooling of input cost inflation.”<blockquote>但是企业能坚持多久呢？欧洲和美国在这方面可能会有所不同。根据IHS Markit最新的采购经理人指数，美国制造业的通胀成本速度创历史新高，“有利的需求条件使得制成品价格也以前所未有的速度上涨，因为企业寻求保护其利润，”指出IHS首席经济学家西安·琼斯上周。另一方面，在欧元区，IHS Markit指出“投入成本通胀略有降温”。</blockquote> To “promote effectively the goal of maximum employment” is the first aim assigned to the Fed under its mandate from Congress, whereas the ECB’s sole remit is to achieve stable prices — which it has defined as an annual inflation of 2%. Both can find good reasons in the latest numbers or surveys to continue their bond purchases for now.<blockquote>“有效促进最大就业目标”是国会授权赋予美联储的第一个目标，而欧洲央行的唯一职责是实现物价稳定——它将物价稳定定义为年通胀率2%。双方都可以从最新数据或调查中找到充分的理由继续购买债券。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/central-bankers-are-right-this-is-not-your-fathers-inflation-51630926432?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/central-bankers-are-right-this-is-not-your-fathers-inflation-51630926432?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129901566","content_text":"Central bankers keep shrugging off the current spike in inflation as a temporary phenomenon, and they have some good reasons to do so. \nA weak jobs report in the U.S. last week has cooled off talks about tapering — the phasing out of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program. \nAnd even if inflation in the eurozone has now reached a decade-high annual 3%, the European Central Bank will continue its pandemic-specific program until its scheduled end in March next year. And beyond that, it will keep buying bonds under the regular asset-purchase program it launched in 2014 to help it meet its inflation target.\nThe debate about tapering has never been about whether or not it will happen — it will, and it should, since central banks must shrink their massive balance sheets if they want to be able to meet future major crises with the type of efficiency they demonstrated when faced with the coronavirus pandemic. The immediate question is rather whether or not they should speed up the phasing out of quantitative easing because of the supposed return of inflation.\nA string of surveys of business managers released last week showed that inflation isn’t only due to oil prices catching up after historic lows last year, or some goods becoming more expensive because consumers are finally spending the money they were forced to save during the many lockdowns of the past 18 months.\nCost inflation is now putting pressure on businesses, and they in turn have to choose whether they pass it on to their customers, or compress their margins by putting a priority on preserving market shares.\nA slow spread of inflation throughout the economy could then contribute to make it more pervasive, and push price expectations for the future even higher among both businesses and consumers, who might in turn seek higher wages.\nBut is that a credible threat? Catherine Mann, the former Citibank chief economist who is now a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, cautioned Monday that we should not look at the current inflation through the eyes of the traumatized generation that endured the double-digit inflation of the 1970s.\nToday is different, Mann explained, in part because wages and prices were more closely indexed to each other back then, and because labor markets and wages were more tightly interrelated.\nFurthermore, she added, companies today are more reluctant to pass on cost inflation to their customers and clients.\nBut how long will businesses hold? Europe and the U.S. may diverge here. According to IHS Markit ‘s most recent Purchasing Managers Index, the pace of inflation cost is at a record high in U.S. manufacturing, and “favorable demand conditions allowed finished goods prices to also rise at an unprecedented rate, as firms sought to protect their margins,” noted IHS chief economist Siân Jones last week. In the eurozone, on the other hand, IHS Markit noted “a slight cooling of input cost inflation.”\nTo “promote effectively the goal of maximum employment” is the first aim assigned to the Fed under its mandate from Congress, whereas the ECB’s sole remit is to achieve stable prices — which it has defined as an annual inflation of 2%. Both can find good reasons in the latest numbers or surveys to continue their bond purchases for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}