Good read. V true_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

sasa11
2021-08-27

Good read. V true

Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote>

Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES The stock mar

Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":819264406,"tweetId":"819264406","gmtCreate":1630073195805,"gmtModify":1704955560229,"author":{"id":3574975730290141,"idStr":"3574975730290141","authorId":3574975730290141,"authorIdStr":"3574975730290141","name":"sasa11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e058ce6727186880f07f79a7025a0d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good read. V true</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good read. V true</body></html>","text":"Good read. V true","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819264406","repostId":1149850459,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149850459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630048146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149850459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 15:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149850459","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock mar","content":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time<blockquote>寻找优质公司，一次一只股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d5fb452d9db7f672a2a9eec51862eb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> The stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing&nbsp;“Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.<blockquote>股市处于泡沫之中；这不是什么秘密。大多数投资者都忽略了这一点，只是迷恋这一旅程。他们在玩“傻瓜策略”——等待一个更大的傻瓜从他们那里购买他们被高估的股票。为什么不呢，更大的傻瓜多年来一直成群结队地出现。低利率抬高了所有资产的价格，迫使每个人承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote> Then there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).<blockquote>然后是纯粹的贪婪。这个市场泡沫充斥着这种“快速致富”的心态和对错失良机的恐惧；所有的泡泡都是。这一次，社交媒体进一步扭曲了市场，它似乎是这种行为的巨大放大器，可以说是延长了这种行为，带来了似乎无穷无尽的增量买家（更大的傻瓜）。</blockquote> Market timer’s gambit<blockquote>市场计时器的策略</blockquote> Rational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.&nbsp; They may play&nbsp;“Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.<blockquote>不沉溺于贪婪的理性人士，不介意慢慢致富，他们可能想完全避开这个市场。他们可能会玩“市场计时器的策略”。他们的论点（表面上）是合乎逻辑的。事情是这样的：“我现在打算保持观望，等市场下跌后再入场”。</blockquote> There are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.<blockquote>这种策略有两个问题。第一，市场非理性可以持续很长时间。第二，虽然理论上听起来不错，但实际执行起来很难。</blockquote> Here is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.<blockquote>这里有一个例子：假设您100%持有现金，等待市场调整。你等了很长时间，然后市场下跌了10%。你觉得自己稍微被证明是正确的，但市场实际上刚刚稳定在几个月前的水平。你要做一个决定：进去还是等？你当然是谨慎的，市场在下跌，所以你决定等待。</blockquote> The market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.<blockquote>市场又下跌了10%。你觉得自己被证明是正确的。现在你觉得你的耐心和过去几年你错过的回报得到了回报。但你的直觉会告诉你，如果市场下跌20%，它可能会跌得更低。你等着。</blockquote> You were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.<blockquote>你是对的。市场又下跌了10%。经济新闻很难看。市场下跌可能会使经济陷入衰退。或者经济已经陷入衰退。现在你担心了。你决定等待。</blockquote> The market declines&nbsp;another&nbsp;10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.<blockquote>市场又下跌了10%。这笔现金现在感觉太贵了，你不想放弃它。你觉得你已经想通了。你告诉自己，当消息好转时，你会投资。</blockquote> The news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.&nbsp; Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.<blockquote>消息并没有好转。但是奇怪的事情发生了。市场有几天表现强劲。评论员看涨期权他们是“死猫反弹”，预计会进一步下跌。这几天强势之后还有几天。突然市场回撤了最后20%的跌幅。你为两周前（在现在“明显”的底部）没有投资而感到难过。</blockquote> You get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.<blockquote>你明白了。一旦你完全退出市场，从心理上来说很难再重新投入市场。我遇到过不少人，他们自2000年以来一直远离市场，仍在等待进入市场的机会。想象一下他们经历的心理过山车和他们留在桌面上的回报。</blockquote> Even if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.<blockquote>即使你一次抓住了市场时机，也不可能将其放入一个可重复的过程中。除了把握好经济的时机之外，你还必须把握好股市对经济反应的时机。我认识很多成功把握市场时机的人；我不知道有谁做过两次。</blockquote> One stock at a time<blockquote>一次一只股票</blockquote> Investing in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available:&nbsp;“One Stock at a Time.”<blockquote>投资股市不需要停留在傻瓜策略或市场计时器策略的极端。还有一种不同的游戏：“一次一只股票。”</blockquote> Even in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).<blockquote>即使在这个估值疯狂高估的市场中，也不是所有的股票都被高估了，都在寻找更大的傻瓜。凭借耐心、长期的时间视野和我们久经考验的价值投资流程，寻找由优秀管理层运营、被严重低估（即具有安全边际）的高质量公司。</blockquote> This process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.<blockquote>这个过程并不快速，也不会让你快速致富。它需要平凡的工作和翻转大量的岩石。在我们公司，我们阅读公司财务文件，与管理层、竞争对手交谈，建立我们自己的财务模型，在我们自己之间以及与我们的全球投资者网络讨论这些投资。</blockquote> Investors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.<blockquote>投资者可以从全球数万只股票中进行选择。在我们公司，我们只需要20到30个。当我们找不到足够多的符合我们严格投资标准的股票时，我们的现金余额会上升，然后随着我们找到新股票而下降。我们不把握市场时机；我们对个股进行估值，便宜时买入，贵时卖出。</blockquote> To sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But&nbsp;we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar —&nbsp;one stock at a time.<blockquote>总而言之：今天的美国股市是一张接近2美元或更多的美元钞票。许多股票以1美元易手为4美元、6美元、20美元。但是我们不拥有市场；相反，我们组建了一个公司投资组合，其定价极具吸引力，每美元价格为30至60美分——一次一只股票。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNot every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-27 15:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLook for high-quality companies, one stock at a time<blockquote>寻找优质公司，一次一只股票</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d5fb452d9db7f672a2a9eec51862eb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> The stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing&nbsp;“Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.<blockquote>股市处于泡沫之中；这不是什么秘密。大多数投资者都忽略了这一点，只是迷恋这一旅程。他们在玩“傻瓜策略”——等待一个更大的傻瓜从他们那里购买他们被高估的股票。为什么不呢，更大的傻瓜多年来一直成群结队地出现。低利率抬高了所有资产的价格，迫使每个人承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote> Then there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).<blockquote>然后是纯粹的贪婪。这个市场泡沫充斥着这种“快速致富”的心态和对错失良机的恐惧；所有的泡泡都是。这一次，社交媒体进一步扭曲了市场，它似乎是这种行为的巨大放大器，可以说是延长了这种行为，带来了似乎无穷无尽的增量买家（更大的傻瓜）。</blockquote> Market timer’s gambit<blockquote>市场计时器的策略</blockquote> Rational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.&nbsp; They may play&nbsp;“Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.<blockquote>不沉溺于贪婪的理性人士，不介意慢慢致富，他们可能想完全避开这个市场。他们可能会玩“市场计时器的策略”。他们的论点（表面上）是合乎逻辑的。事情是这样的：“我现在打算保持观望，等市场下跌后再入场”。</blockquote> There are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.<blockquote>这种策略有两个问题。第一，市场非理性可以持续很长时间。第二，虽然理论上听起来不错，但实际执行起来很难。</blockquote> Here is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.<blockquote>这里有一个例子：假设您100%持有现金，等待市场调整。你等了很长时间，然后市场下跌了10%。你觉得自己稍微被证明是正确的，但市场实际上刚刚稳定在几个月前的水平。你要做一个决定：进去还是等？你当然是谨慎的，市场在下跌，所以你决定等待。</blockquote> The market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.<blockquote>市场又下跌了10%。你觉得自己被证明是正确的。现在你觉得你的耐心和过去几年你错过的回报得到了回报。但你的直觉会告诉你，如果市场下跌20%，它可能会跌得更低。你等着。</blockquote> You were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.<blockquote>你是对的。市场又下跌了10%。经济新闻很难看。市场下跌可能会使经济陷入衰退。或者经济已经陷入衰退。现在你担心了。你决定等待。</blockquote> The market declines&nbsp;another&nbsp;10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.<blockquote>市场又下跌了10%。这笔现金现在感觉太贵了，你不想放弃它。你觉得你已经想通了。你告诉自己，当消息好转时，你会投资。</blockquote> The news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.&nbsp; Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.<blockquote>消息并没有好转。但是奇怪的事情发生了。市场有几天表现强劲。评论员看涨期权他们是“死猫反弹”，预计会进一步下跌。这几天强势之后还有几天。突然市场回撤了最后20%的跌幅。你为两周前（在现在“明显”的底部）没有投资而感到难过。</blockquote> You get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.<blockquote>你明白了。一旦你完全退出市场，从心理上来说很难再重新投入市场。我遇到过不少人，他们自2000年以来一直远离市场，仍在等待进入市场的机会。想象一下他们经历的心理过山车和他们留在桌面上的回报。</blockquote> Even if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.<blockquote>即使你一次抓住了市场时机，也不可能将其放入一个可重复的过程中。除了把握好经济的时机之外，你还必须把握好股市对经济反应的时机。我认识很多成功把握市场时机的人；我不知道有谁做过两次。</blockquote> One stock at a time<blockquote>一次一只股票</blockquote> Investing in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available:&nbsp;“One Stock at a Time.”<blockquote>投资股市不需要停留在傻瓜策略或市场计时器策略的极端。还有一种不同的游戏：“一次一只股票。”</blockquote> Even in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).<blockquote>即使在这个估值疯狂高估的市场中，也不是所有的股票都被高估了，都在寻找更大的傻瓜。凭借耐心、长期的时间视野和我们久经考验的价值投资流程，寻找由优秀管理层运营、被严重低估（即具有安全边际）的高质量公司。</blockquote> This process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.<blockquote>这个过程并不快速，也不会让你快速致富。它需要平凡的工作和翻转大量的岩石。在我们公司，我们阅读公司财务文件，与管理层、竞争对手交谈，建立我们自己的财务模型，在我们自己之间以及与我们的全球投资者网络讨论这些投资。</blockquote> Investors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.<blockquote>投资者可以从全球数万只股票中进行选择。在我们公司，我们只需要20到30个。当我们找不到足够多的符合我们严格投资标准的股票时，我们的现金余额会上升，然后随着我们找到新股票而下降。我们不把握市场时机；我们对个股进行估值，便宜时买入，贵时卖出。</blockquote> To sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But&nbsp;we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar —&nbsp;one stock at a time.<blockquote>总而言之：今天的美国股市是一张接近2美元或更多的美元钞票。许多股票以1美元易手为4美元、6美元、20美元。但是我们不拥有市场；相反，我们组建了一个公司投资组合，其定价极具吸引力，每美元价格为30至60美分——一次一只股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-every-stock-is-in-a-bubble-heres-how-to-find-todays-bargains-and-tomorrows-winners-11630016489?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149850459","content_text":"Look for high-quality companies, one stock at a time\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nThe stock market is in a bubble; this is not a secret. Most investors are ignoring it and just infatuated with the ride. They are playing “Fool’s Gambit” —waiting for a greater fool to buy their overvalued stock from them. And why not, greater fools have been showing up in droves for years. Low interest rates inflated the prices of all assets, forcing everyone to take greater and greater risks.\nThen there is pure, unadulterated greed. This market bubble is filled with this “get rich fast” attitude and the fear of missing out; all bubbles are. This time the market has been further deformed by social media, which seems like an enormous amplifier and arguably prolonger of that behavior, bringing what seems an endless supply of incremental buyers (bigger fools).\nMarket timer’s gambit\nRational people not drunk on greed, who are fine with getting rich slowly, may want to avoid this market altogether.  They may play “Market Timer’s Gambit.” Their argument (on the surface) is logical. It goes like this: “I am going to stay on the sidelines for now and will go in after the market dips”.\nThere are two problems with this strategy. First, market irrationality can last a long time. Second, though it sounds good in theory, in practice it is difficult to execute.\nHere is an example: Let’s say you went 100% in cash waiting for the market to correct. You waited for a long time and then the market declines 10%. You feel slightly vindicated, but the market really just settled to where it was a few months ago. You have a decision to make: Get in or wait? You are of course prudent, and the market is declining, so you decide to wait.\nThe market falls another 10%. You feel a bit more vindicated. Now you feel rewarded for your patience and for the last few years of return you’ve missed out on. But your gut tells you if the market declined 20% and it can go down lower. You wait.\nYou were right. The market declines another 10%. Economic news is ugly. The market decline may send the economy into a recession. Or the economy is already in a recession. Now you are worried. You decide to wait.\nThe market declines another 10%. This cash now feels so dear you don’t want to part with it. You feel like you’ve got this figured out. You tell yourself you’ll invest when the news gets better.\nThe news is not getting better. But a strange thing happens. The market has a few strong days. Commentators call them a “dead cat bounce,” expecting further declines. These few strong days are followed by a few more.  Suddenly the market has retraced the last 20% of the decline. You feel bad that you didn’t invest two weeks ago (at the now “obvious”) bottom.\nYou get the point. Once you are completely out of the market, it is incredibly difficult psychologically to dive back in. I’ve met quite a few people that have stayed out of the market since 2000 and are still waiting for their chance to get in. Just imagine the psychological rollercoaster they went through and the returns they left on the table.\nEven if you got the market timing right once, putting it into a repeatable process is impossible. In addition to getting the timing of the economy right, you have to time the stock market response to the economy. I know many people who timed the market successfully once; I don’t know any who’ve done it twice.\nOne stock at a time\nInvesting in the stock market doesn’t need to reside in the extremes of the Fool’s Gambit or the Market Timer’s Gambit. There is a different game available: “One Stock at a Time.”\nEven in this insanely overvalued market not all stocks are overvalued and in search of a greater fool. Armed with patience, a long-term time horizon and our time-tested value investing process, look for high-quality companies, run by great management, that are significantly undervalued (i.e., have a margin of safety).\nThis process is not fast and furious and won’t get you rich quickly. It requires mundane work and turning over a lot of rocks. At our firm, we read company financial filings, talk to management, competitors, build our own financial models, debate these investments among ourselves and with our global network of investors.\nInvestors can choose from tens of thousands of stocks globally. At our firm, we need only 20 to 30. When we cannot find enough stocks that meet our stringent investment criteria our cash balances go up, then decline as we find new stocks. We don’t time the market; we value individual stocks, buying when they are cheap and selling when they are dear.\nTo sum it up: The U.S. stock market today is a dollar bill trading for close to $2 or more. Many stocks are $1 changing hands for $4, $6, $20. But we don’t own the market; instead we have assembled a portfolio of companies priced attractively at 30- to 60-cents on the dollar — one stock at a time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Not every stock is in a bubble. Here’s how to find today’s bargains and tomorrow’s winners<blockquote>并非所有股票都存在泡沫。以下是如何找到今天的便宜货和明天的赢家</blockquote>

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