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What to watch for market stress as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline nears<blockquote>随着美国债务上限最后期限的临近，市场压力值得关注</blockquote>

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Worries about the debt ceiling are beginning to rattle investors as the

What to watch for market stress as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline nears<blockquote>随着美国债务上限最后期限的临近，市场压力值得关注</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":820760403,"tweetId":"820760403","gmtCreate":1633434726256,"gmtModify":1633434726469,"author":{"id":3586734752682837,"idStr":"3586734752682837","authorId":3586734752682837,"authorIdStr":"3586734752682837","name":"bulldoze","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Likes</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Likes</body></html>","text":"Likes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820760403","repostId":1158248520,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158248520","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633434167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158248520?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch for market stress as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline nears<blockquote>随着美国债务上限最后期限的临近，市场压力值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158248520","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Worries about the debt ceiling are beginning to rattle investors as the ","content":"NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Worries about the debt ceiling are beginning to rattle investors as the deadline nears for Congress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit to avoid a historic default on U.S. debt.<blockquote>路透纽约10月5日-随着国会提高美国借贷上限以避免美国债务出现历史性违约的最后期限临近，对债务上限的担忧开始困扰投资者。</blockquote> With two weeks before the Oct. 18 deadline, President Joe Biden said Monday he cannot guarantee the government will not breach its $28.4 trillion debt limit unless Republicans join Democrats in voting to raise it.read more<blockquote>距离10月18日最后期限还有两周，总统乔·拜登周一表示，除非共和党与民主党一起投票提高债务上限，否则他无法保证政府不会突破28.4万亿美元的债务上限。了解更多</blockquote> Concerns are mounting in the market for short-term bills, credit default spreads on U.S. debt and in general market sentiment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the government will run out of cash around that date unless Congress raises the limit on the federal debt.<blockquote>市场对短期票据、美债信用违约利差以及整体市场情绪的担忧日益加剧。美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦曾表示，除非国会提高联邦债务上限，否则政府将在该日期前后耗尽现金。</blockquote> \"The debt ceiling and infrastructure talks out of (Washington), D.C., will continue to be front and center this week amid more hints that ratings agencies could take the U.S. credit rating down a notch if the drama continues,\" said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp.<blockquote>国家证券公司首席市场策略师阿瑟·霍根表示：“（华盛顿）特区的债务上限和基础设施谈判将继续成为本周的焦点，因为有更多迹象表明，如果这场闹剧继续下去，评级机构可能会将美国信用评级下调一个档次。”</blockquote> SHORT-TERM TREASURY SPREADS<blockquote>短期国债利差</blockquote> There are signs of tension in the Treasury bill market, with 1-month bills that would be affected by a potential default yielding higher than 3-month bills.<blockquote>国库券市场出现紧张迹象，受潜在违约影响的1个月期国债收益率高于3个月期国债。</blockquote> One-month bills currently yield 0.1%, close to their highest levels since March on an intraday basis, compared with a 0.038% yield in three-month bills . The spread between one-month and three-month bills is the widest since March 2020.<blockquote>目前一个月期票据的收益率为0.1%，接近3月份以来的最高水平，而三个月期票据的收益率为0.038%。一个月期和三个月期票据之间的利差是2020年3月以来最大的。</blockquote> Portfolio managers typically avoid bill issues at risk of default even if the likelihood of a failed payment is very low. This can send yields on some issues higher than those on longer-dated debt, an unusual occurrence in the yield curve, which is typically upward-sloping.read more<blockquote>即使付款失败的可能性非常低，投资组合经理通常也会避免有违约风险的账单发行。这可能会导致某些债券的收益率高于长期债务的收益率，这在通常向上倾斜的收益率曲线中是不寻常的。了解更多</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e40d80f7ed9166c137987cfa0d09964\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. REPO MARKET<blockquote>美国回购市场</blockquote> Except for some minor volatility, the U.S. overnight repurchase agreement (repo) market has shown little signs of stress.<blockquote>除了一些小幅波动，美国隔夜回购协议（repo）市场几乎没有显示出压力迹象。</blockquote> Overnight repo rates on Monday closed at 0.05% . There were some pockets of volatility, traders said, in the last few days. Last week, overnight repo rates traded as high as 0.07%, but fell as low as -0.10%.<blockquote>周一隔夜回购利率收于0.05%。交易员表示，过去几天出现了一些波动。上周，隔夜回购利率最高为0.07%，但最低跌至-0.10%。</blockquote> As the debt ceiling deadline looms, repo rates have become volatile because with the U.S. Treasury expected to run down its cash balance, the excess funds flow into the banking system as reserves. Banks can either choose to invest in the repo market, which pushes rates lower, or lend to the Federal Reserve via its reverse repo facility. That takes money away from the repo market and tends to lift overnight rates a little higher.<blockquote>随着债务上限最后期限的临近，回购利率变得不稳定，因为预计美国财政部的现金余额将减少，多余的资金将作为储备流入银行体系。银行可以选择投资于降低利率的回购市场，或者通过其逆回购工具向美联储提供贷款。这将资金从回购市场带走，并往往会将隔夜利率推高一点。</blockquote> \"Except for perhaps some elevated volatility, I don't see anything outsized at this point that makes me think it's resulting from increased angst about the debt ceiling,\" said Dan Belton, fixed-income strategist, at BMO Capital in Chicago.<blockquote>芝加哥BMO Capital固定收益策略师丹·贝尔顿(Dan Belton)表示：“除了波动性加剧之外，目前我没有看到任何过大的情况让我认为这是由于对债务上限的担忧加剧造成的。”</blockquote> Rates in the repo market are also affected at certain dates of the month by inflows from government state enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.<blockquote>回购市场的利率在每月的某些日期也会受到房利美和房地美等政府国有企业资金流入的影响。</blockquote> Last Thursday, volume at the Fed's reverse repo window soared to a record $1.604 trillion, as investors flocked to the U.S. central bank facility where they are paid a guaranteed 5 basis for overnight cash without counterparty risk.<blockquote>上周四，美联储逆回购窗口的交易量飙升至创纪录的1.604万亿美元，投资者纷纷涌向美联储的设施，在那里他们可以获得有保证的5基点的隔夜现金，而没有交易对手风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfb5c8e36d25730d3968ff87b864413\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Steady repo market<blockquote>稳定的回购市场</blockquote> OPTIONS MARKET<blockquote>期权市场</blockquote> When investors are anxious about an upcoming event, they typically load up on options hedges, thereby driving up volatility embedded in those options.<blockquote>当投资者对即将发生的事件感到焦虑时，他们通常会进行期权对冲，从而推高这些期权的波动性。</blockquote> Options on S&amp;P 500(.SPX)and its tracking ETF(SPY.P), expiring on Oct. 15, just prior to the debt ceiling deadline, display just a little bit extra volatility priced into them when compared with contracts expiring before and after.<blockquote>标普500(.SPX)及其跟踪ETF(SPY.P)的期权将于10月15日（就在债务上限截止日期之前）到期，与之前和之后到期的合约相比，其定价的波动性略有增加。</blockquote> A more significant rise in volatility for expirations on and around the Oct. 18 deadline in coming days would tell that the debt ceiling showdown is garnering more attention from investors.<blockquote>未来几天，10月18日截止日期前后到期的波动性将大幅上升，这表明债务上限摊牌正在吸引投资者更多关注。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fdf5cbab71aaafbac35d1543cf70e52\" tg-width=\"1288\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Reuters Graphics<blockquote>路透社图形</blockquote> CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS<blockquote>信用违约掉期</blockquote> Thinly traded credit default swaps that would pay off in the case of a U.S. government default have spiked in recent days, though they remain far below where they traded during the summer of 2011 when prolonged debt ceiling negotiations led to ratings agencies downgrading U.S. debt, according to Moody's analytics.<blockquote>交易清淡的信用违约掉期最近几天飙升，但仍远低于2011年夏季的交易水平，当时旷日持久的债务上限谈判导致评级机构下调美国债务评级。穆迪分析。</blockquote> One-year credit-default swaps are now trading at levels last seen in December 2020, according to Refinitiv data, through remain approximately 40% lower than they were in March 2020 when much of the U.S. economy shutdown during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，一年期信用违约掉期目前的交易水平为2020年12月的水平，仍比2020年3月低约40%，当时美国大部分经济在冠状病毒大流行的早期阶段关闭。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e0d2dd0efdd45babdf802ac6f5b8e2\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CDS<blockquote>CDS</blockquote> MONEY MARKET FLOWS<blockquote>货币市场流动</blockquote> In one sign of rising nervousness, investors sent approximately $33 billion into money-market funds the week that ended Sept. 29. That move to cash pushed the total assets of the $3.9 trillion money market industry to its highest levels since June, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.<blockquote>截至9月29日的一周，投资者向货币市场基金注入了约330亿美元，这是紧张情绪加剧的一个迹象。根据投资公司协会的数据，这种向现金的转变将3.9万亿美元的货币市场行业的总资产推至6月份以来的最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b4775b1aeed0a9b263586deba46189\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Reuters GraphicsReporting by David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Megan Davies and Lisa Shumaker<blockquote>路透社图片报道：David Randall、Saqib Iqbal Ahmed和Gertrude查韦斯-德雷福斯；斯蒂芬·卡尔普的补充报道；梅根·戴维斯和丽莎·舒梅克编辑</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch for market stress as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline nears<blockquote>随着美国债务上限最后期限的临近，市场压力值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch for market stress as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline nears<blockquote>随着美国债务上限最后期限的临近，市场压力值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-10-05 19:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Worries about the debt ceiling are beginning to rattle investors as the deadline nears for Congress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit to avoid a historic default on U.S. debt.<blockquote>路透纽约10月5日-随着国会提高美国借贷上限以避免美国债务出现历史性违约的最后期限临近，对债务上限的担忧开始困扰投资者。</blockquote> With two weeks before the Oct. 18 deadline, President Joe Biden said Monday he cannot guarantee the government will not breach its $28.4 trillion debt limit unless Republicans join Democrats in voting to raise it.read more<blockquote>距离10月18日最后期限还有两周，总统乔·拜登周一表示，除非共和党与民主党一起投票提高债务上限，否则他无法保证政府不会突破28.4万亿美元的债务上限。了解更多</blockquote> Concerns are mounting in the market for short-term bills, credit default spreads on U.S. debt and in general market sentiment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the government will run out of cash around that date unless Congress raises the limit on the federal debt.<blockquote>市场对短期票据、美债信用违约利差以及整体市场情绪的担忧日益加剧。美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦曾表示，除非国会提高联邦债务上限，否则政府将在该日期前后耗尽现金。</blockquote> \"The debt ceiling and infrastructure talks out of (Washington), D.C., will continue to be front and center this week amid more hints that ratings agencies could take the U.S. credit rating down a notch if the drama continues,\" said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp.<blockquote>国家证券公司首席市场策略师阿瑟·霍根表示：“（华盛顿）特区的债务上限和基础设施谈判将继续成为本周的焦点，因为有更多迹象表明，如果这场闹剧继续下去，评级机构可能会将美国信用评级下调一个档次。”</blockquote> SHORT-TERM TREASURY SPREADS<blockquote>短期国债利差</blockquote> There are signs of tension in the Treasury bill market, with 1-month bills that would be affected by a potential default yielding higher than 3-month bills.<blockquote>国库券市场出现紧张迹象，受潜在违约影响的1个月期国债收益率高于3个月期国债。</blockquote> One-month bills currently yield 0.1%, close to their highest levels since March on an intraday basis, compared with a 0.038% yield in three-month bills . The spread between one-month and three-month bills is the widest since March 2020.<blockquote>目前一个月期票据的收益率为0.1%，接近3月份以来的最高水平，而三个月期票据的收益率为0.038%。一个月期和三个月期票据之间的利差是2020年3月以来最大的。</blockquote> Portfolio managers typically avoid bill issues at risk of default even if the likelihood of a failed payment is very low. This can send yields on some issues higher than those on longer-dated debt, an unusual occurrence in the yield curve, which is typically upward-sloping.read more<blockquote>即使付款失败的可能性非常低，投资组合经理通常也会避免有违约风险的账单发行。这可能会导致某些债券的收益率高于长期债务的收益率，这在通常向上倾斜的收益率曲线中是不寻常的。了解更多</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e40d80f7ed9166c137987cfa0d09964\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U.S. REPO MARKET<blockquote>美国回购市场</blockquote> Except for some minor volatility, the U.S. overnight repurchase agreement (repo) market has shown little signs of stress.<blockquote>除了一些小幅波动，美国隔夜回购协议（repo）市场几乎没有显示出压力迹象。</blockquote> Overnight repo rates on Monday closed at 0.05% . There were some pockets of volatility, traders said, in the last few days. Last week, overnight repo rates traded as high as 0.07%, but fell as low as -0.10%.<blockquote>周一隔夜回购利率收于0.05%。交易员表示，过去几天出现了一些波动。上周，隔夜回购利率最高为0.07%，但最低跌至-0.10%。</blockquote> As the debt ceiling deadline looms, repo rates have become volatile because with the U.S. Treasury expected to run down its cash balance, the excess funds flow into the banking system as reserves. Banks can either choose to invest in the repo market, which pushes rates lower, or lend to the Federal Reserve via its reverse repo facility. That takes money away from the repo market and tends to lift overnight rates a little higher.<blockquote>随着债务上限最后期限的临近，回购利率变得不稳定，因为预计美国财政部的现金余额将减少，多余的资金将作为储备流入银行体系。银行可以选择投资于降低利率的回购市场，或者通过其逆回购工具向美联储提供贷款。这将资金从回购市场带走，并往往会将隔夜利率推高一点。</blockquote> \"Except for perhaps some elevated volatility, I don't see anything outsized at this point that makes me think it's resulting from increased angst about the debt ceiling,\" said Dan Belton, fixed-income strategist, at BMO Capital in Chicago.<blockquote>芝加哥BMO Capital固定收益策略师丹·贝尔顿(Dan Belton)表示：“除了波动性加剧之外，目前我没有看到任何过大的情况让我认为这是由于对债务上限的担忧加剧造成的。”</blockquote> Rates in the repo market are also affected at certain dates of the month by inflows from government state enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.<blockquote>回购市场的利率在每月的某些日期也会受到房利美和房地美等政府国有企业资金流入的影响。</blockquote> Last Thursday, volume at the Fed's reverse repo window soared to a record $1.604 trillion, as investors flocked to the U.S. central bank facility where they are paid a guaranteed 5 basis for overnight cash without counterparty risk.<blockquote>上周四，美联储逆回购窗口的交易量飙升至创纪录的1.604万亿美元，投资者纷纷涌向美联储的设施，在那里他们可以获得有保证的5基点的隔夜现金，而没有交易对手风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfb5c8e36d25730d3968ff87b864413\" tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Steady repo market<blockquote>稳定的回购市场</blockquote> OPTIONS MARKET<blockquote>期权市场</blockquote> When investors are anxious about an upcoming event, they typically load up on options hedges, thereby driving up volatility embedded in those options.<blockquote>当投资者对即将发生的事件感到焦虑时，他们通常会进行期权对冲，从而推高这些期权的波动性。</blockquote> Options on S&amp;P 500(.SPX)and its tracking ETF(SPY.P), expiring on Oct. 15, just prior to the debt ceiling deadline, display just a little bit extra volatility priced into them when compared with contracts expiring before and after.<blockquote>标普500(.SPX)及其跟踪ETF(SPY.P)的期权将于10月15日（就在债务上限截止日期之前）到期，与之前和之后到期的合约相比，其定价的波动性略有增加。</blockquote> A more significant rise in volatility for expirations on and around the Oct. 18 deadline in coming days would tell that the debt ceiling showdown is garnering more attention from investors.<blockquote>未来几天，10月18日截止日期前后到期的波动性将大幅上升，这表明债务上限摊牌正在吸引投资者更多关注。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fdf5cbab71aaafbac35d1543cf70e52\" tg-width=\"1288\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Reuters Graphics<blockquote>路透社图形</blockquote> CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS<blockquote>信用违约掉期</blockquote> Thinly traded credit default swaps that would pay off in the case of a U.S. government default have spiked in recent days, though they remain far below where they traded during the summer of 2011 when prolonged debt ceiling negotiations led to ratings agencies downgrading U.S. debt, according to Moody's analytics.<blockquote>交易清淡的信用违约掉期最近几天飙升，但仍远低于2011年夏季的交易水平，当时旷日持久的债务上限谈判导致评级机构下调美国债务评级。穆迪分析。</blockquote> One-year credit-default swaps are now trading at levels last seen in December 2020, according to Refinitiv data, through remain approximately 40% lower than they were in March 2020 when much of the U.S. economy shutdown during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.<blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，一年期信用违约掉期目前的交易水平为2020年12月的水平，仍比2020年3月低约40%，当时美国大部分经济在冠状病毒大流行的早期阶段关闭。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e0d2dd0efdd45babdf802ac6f5b8e2\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CDS<blockquote>CDS</blockquote> MONEY MARKET FLOWS<blockquote>货币市场流动</blockquote> In one sign of rising nervousness, investors sent approximately $33 billion into money-market funds the week that ended Sept. 29. That move to cash pushed the total assets of the $3.9 trillion money market industry to its highest levels since June, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.<blockquote>截至9月29日的一周，投资者向货币市场基金注入了约330亿美元，这是紧张情绪加剧的一个迹象。根据投资公司协会的数据，这种向现金的转变将3.9万亿美元的货币市场行业的总资产推至6月份以来的最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b4775b1aeed0a9b263586deba46189\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Reuters GraphicsReporting by David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Megan Davies and Lisa Shumaker<blockquote>路透社图片报道：David Randall、Saqib Iqbal Ahmed和Gertrude查韦斯-德雷福斯；斯蒂芬·卡尔普的补充报道；梅根·戴维斯和丽莎·舒梅克编辑</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-watch-market-stress-us-debt-ceiling-deadline-nears-2021-10-05/\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-watch-market-stress-us-debt-ceiling-deadline-nears-2021-10-05/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158248520","content_text":"NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Worries about the debt ceiling are beginning to rattle investors as the deadline nears for Congress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit to avoid a historic default on U.S. debt.\nWith two weeks before the Oct. 18 deadline, President Joe Biden said Monday he cannot guarantee the government will not breach its $28.4 trillion debt limit unless Republicans join Democrats in voting to raise it.read more\nConcerns are mounting in the market for short-term bills, credit default spreads on U.S. debt and in general market sentiment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the government will run out of cash around that date unless Congress raises the limit on the federal debt.\n\"The debt ceiling and infrastructure talks out of (Washington), D.C., will continue to be front and center this week amid more hints that ratings agencies could take the U.S. credit rating down a notch if the drama continues,\" said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp.\nSHORT-TERM TREASURY SPREADS\nThere are signs of tension in the Treasury bill market, with 1-month bills that would be affected by a potential default yielding higher than 3-month bills.\nOne-month bills currently yield 0.1%, close to their highest levels since March on an intraday basis, compared with a 0.038% yield in three-month bills . The spread between one-month and three-month bills is the widest since March 2020.\nPortfolio managers typically avoid bill issues at risk of default even if the likelihood of a failed payment is very low. This can send yields on some issues higher than those on longer-dated debt, an unusual occurrence in the yield curve, which is typically upward-sloping.read more\nU.S. REPO MARKET\nExcept for some minor volatility, the U.S. overnight repurchase agreement (repo) market has shown little signs of stress.\nOvernight repo rates on Monday closed at 0.05% . There were some pockets of volatility, traders said, in the last few days. Last week, overnight repo rates traded as high as 0.07%, but fell as low as -0.10%.\nAs the debt ceiling deadline looms, repo rates have become volatile because with the U.S. Treasury expected to run down its cash balance, the excess funds flow into the banking system as reserves. Banks can either choose to invest in the repo market, which pushes rates lower, or lend to the Federal Reserve via its reverse repo facility. That takes money away from the repo market and tends to lift overnight rates a little higher.\n\"Except for perhaps some elevated volatility, I don't see anything outsized at this point that makes me think it's resulting from increased angst about the debt ceiling,\" said Dan Belton, fixed-income strategist, at BMO Capital in Chicago.\nRates in the repo market are also affected at certain dates of the month by inflows from government state enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.\nLast Thursday, volume at the Fed's reverse repo window soared to a record $1.604 trillion, as investors flocked to the U.S. central bank facility where they are paid a guaranteed 5 basis for overnight cash without counterparty risk.\nSteady repo market\nOPTIONS MARKET\nWhen investors are anxious about an upcoming event, they typically load up on options hedges, thereby driving up volatility embedded in those options.\nOptions on S&P 500(.SPX)and its tracking ETF(SPY.P), expiring on Oct. 15, just prior to the debt ceiling deadline, display just a little bit extra volatility priced into them when compared with contracts expiring before and after.\nA more significant rise in volatility for expirations on and around the Oct. 18 deadline in coming days would tell that the debt ceiling showdown is garnering more attention from investors.\nReuters Graphics\nCREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS\nThinly traded credit default swaps that would pay off in the case of a U.S. government default have spiked in recent days, though they remain far below where they traded during the summer of 2011 when prolonged debt ceiling negotiations led to ratings agencies downgrading U.S. debt, according to Moody's analytics.\nOne-year credit-default swaps are now trading at levels last seen in December 2020, according to Refinitiv data, through remain approximately 40% lower than they were in March 2020 when much of the U.S. economy shutdown during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.\nCDS\nMONEY MARKET FLOWS\nIn one sign of rising nervousness, investors sent approximately $33 billion into money-market funds the week that ended Sept. 29. That move to cash pushed the total assets of the $3.9 trillion money market industry to its highest levels since June, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.\nReuters GraphicsReporting by David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Megan Davies and Lisa Shumaker","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}