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2021-10-08

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Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>

One of the biggest stock market fallacies is that investors can't time the market and identify marke

Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>

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That's just not true.<blockquote>最大的股市谬论之一是投资者无法把握市场时机并识别市场底部。那不是真的。</blockquote> Throughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.<blockquote>纵观市场历史，每一次股市底部都会出现一个特定的信号——称为后续信号。</blockquote> A 40%-plus gain for the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.<blockquote>增长40%以上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>例如，去年的综合指数从2020年4月6日的后续日开始。</blockquote> Stock Market Bottoms<blockquote>股市底部</blockquote> To identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.<blockquote>要识别这一信号，首先要寻找纳斯达克或标普500的初始反弹尝试。任何从指数低点反弹都可以。可以是0.1%的增益，也可以是1%的增益。只要指数保持在最新低点上方，反弹尝试就完好无损。</blockquote> Short-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.<blockquote>空头回补可以给市场带来暂时的提振。因此，等待前三天过去，并在第四天或更晚的反弹尝试中寻找后续行动。</blockquote> The follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.<blockquote>后续行动将以大幅上涨的形式出现——至少1.2%，但最好更多——成交量高于前一交易日。</blockquote> Higher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.<blockquote>成交量增加很重要，因为您希望在新的上升趋势的早期阶段看到机构买入的迹象。</blockquote> Of course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.<blockquote>当然，跟进日并没有100%的成功率。那些失败的通常在后续一天后不久就显示出分布的迹象。分配日是指数成交量较大的下跌，是机构抛售的迹象。</blockquote> The strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.<blockquote>最强的跟进往往发生在股指大幅下跌之后。快速回调5%后的跟进可能效果不如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这发生在10%的抛售之后。2020年4月，该纳斯达克的后续日是在该指数经历了30%的剧烈熊市之后。</blockquote> Recent Follow-Through Days<blockquote>近期随访天数</blockquote> In the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>2020年下半年，纳斯达克从9月份开始回调了13%。但道琼斯工业平均指数是那次回调后唯一坚持的指数。9月30日，即反弹尝试的第五天，该股成交量上涨1.2%。但是后续的一天没有太多的持久力。通常，后续行动发生在纳斯达克或标普500。</blockquote> In mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500. The S&amp;P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1)&nbsp;as volume rose from the prior day(2).<blockquote>2020年10月中旬，纳斯达克再次大幅回调，最终催生了纳斯达克和标普500的跟进日。标普500紧随其后，11月4日成交量大幅上涨(1)随着成交量较前一天上升(2).</blockquote> That was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&amp;P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.<blockquote>这距离最低点还有三天。这是不是太快了，因为信号来自至少四天的低点？在这种情况下，标普500收盘价在触底日区间的上半部分是反弹尝试的第一天。</blockquote> The Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.<blockquote>纳斯达克在反弹尝试的第五天继续上涨，11月5日成交量上涨2.6%。</blockquote> The follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like&nbsp;Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined&nbsp;IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included&nbsp;Atlassian(TEAM),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">Element Solutions</a>(ESI) and&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA).<blockquote>在当时大量科技股的帮助下，后续几天表现良好，例如Palantir技术(PLTR)于11月5日冲出IPO基地，加入IBD排行榜。当时其他值得注意的突破包括Atlassian（团队），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">元素解决方案</a>（ESI）和特斯拉（特斯拉）。</blockquote> Remember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>.<blockquote>请记住，当市场在顶级成长型股票中提供大量可行的设置时，后续日往往效果最佳。2020年4月后续日之所以表现如此出色，是因为当前排行榜股票等强劲突破<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>.</blockquote> Also keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.<blockquote>还要记住，新的领导者可能会在跟进几周后出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\ninvestors2021-10-08 22:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOne of the biggest stock market fallacies is that investors can't time the market and identify market bottoms. That's just not true.<blockquote>最大的股市谬论之一是投资者无法把握市场时机并识别市场底部。那不是真的。</blockquote> Throughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.<blockquote>纵观市场历史，每一次股市底部都会出现一个特定的信号——称为后续信号。</blockquote> A 40%-plus gain for the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.<blockquote>增长40%以上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>例如，去年的综合指数从2020年4月6日的后续日开始。</blockquote> Stock Market Bottoms<blockquote>股市底部</blockquote> To identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.<blockquote>要识别这一信号，首先要寻找纳斯达克或标普500的初始反弹尝试。任何从指数低点反弹都可以。可以是0.1%的增益，也可以是1%的增益。只要指数保持在最新低点上方，反弹尝试就完好无损。</blockquote> Short-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.<blockquote>空头回补可以给市场带来暂时的提振。因此，等待前三天过去，并在第四天或更晚的反弹尝试中寻找后续行动。</blockquote> The follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.<blockquote>后续行动将以大幅上涨的形式出现——至少1.2%，但最好更多——成交量高于前一交易日。</blockquote> Higher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.<blockquote>成交量增加很重要，因为您希望在新的上升趋势的早期阶段看到机构买入的迹象。</blockquote> Of course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.<blockquote>当然，跟进日并没有100%的成功率。那些失败的通常在后续一天后不久就显示出分布的迹象。分配日是指数成交量较大的下跌，是机构抛售的迹象。</blockquote> The strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.<blockquote>最强的跟进往往发生在股指大幅下跌之后。快速回调5%后的跟进可能效果不如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这发生在10%的抛售之后。2020年4月，该纳斯达克的后续日是在该指数经历了30%的剧烈熊市之后。</blockquote> Recent Follow-Through Days<blockquote>近期随访天数</blockquote> In the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>2020年下半年，纳斯达克从9月份开始回调了13%。但道琼斯工业平均指数是那次回调后唯一坚持的指数。9月30日，即反弹尝试的第五天，该股成交量上涨1.2%。但是后续的一天没有太多的持久力。通常，后续行动发生在纳斯达克或标普500。</blockquote> In mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500. The S&amp;P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1)&nbsp;as volume rose from the prior day(2).<blockquote>2020年10月中旬，纳斯达克再次大幅回调，最终催生了纳斯达克和标普500的跟进日。标普500紧随其后，11月4日成交量大幅上涨(1)随着成交量较前一天上升(2).</blockquote> That was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&amp;P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.<blockquote>这距离最低点还有三天。这是不是太快了，因为信号来自至少四天的低点？在这种情况下，标普500收盘价在触底日区间的上半部分是反弹尝试的第一天。</blockquote> The Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.<blockquote>纳斯达克在反弹尝试的第五天继续上涨，11月5日成交量上涨2.6%。</blockquote> The follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like&nbsp;Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined&nbsp;IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included&nbsp;Atlassian(TEAM),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">Element Solutions</a>(ESI) and&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA).<blockquote>在当时大量科技股的帮助下，后续几天表现良好，例如Palantir技术(PLTR)于11月5日冲出IPO基地，加入IBD排行榜。当时其他值得注意的突破包括Atlassian（团队），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">元素解决方案</a>（ESI）和特斯拉（特斯拉）。</blockquote> Remember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>.<blockquote>请记住，当市场在顶级成长型股票中提供大量可行的设置时，后续日往往效果最佳。2020年4月后续日之所以表现如此出色，是因为当前排行榜股票等强劲突破<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>.</blockquote> Also keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.<blockquote>还要记住，新的领导者可能会在跟进几周后出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/stock-market-bottoms-look-a-lot-alike-how-to-identify-one/?src=A00220\">investors</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/stock-market-bottoms-look-a-lot-alike-how-to-identify-one/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171365793","content_text":"One of the biggest stock market fallacies is that investors can't time the market and identify market bottoms. That's just not true.\nThroughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.\nA 40%-plus gain for the Nasdaq composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.\nStock Market Bottoms\nTo identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.\nShort-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.\nThe follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.\nHigher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.\nOf course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.\nThe strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as one that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.\nRecent Follow-Through Days\nIn the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&P 500.\nIn mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The S&P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1) as volume rose from the prior day(2).\nThat was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.\nThe Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.\nThe follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included Atlassian(TEAM),Element Solutions(ESI) and Tesla(TSLA).\nRemember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like Microsoft, PayPal, ServiceNow and NVIDIA Corp.\nAlso keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"AONE.U":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>

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