SBUX one m_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

peng321
2021-10-14

SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright

How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>

At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys

How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":825816809,"tweetId":"825816809","gmtCreate":1634216569931,"gmtModify":1634216607695,"author":{"id":4087387556186030,"idStr":"4087387556186030","authorId":4087387556186030,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":96,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825816809","repostId":1161146997,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161146997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634201365,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161146997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161146997","media":"Barrons","summary":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys","content":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.<blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.<blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.<blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.<blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.<blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.<blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.<blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).<blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.<blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.<blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.<blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).<blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.<blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-10-14 16:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.<blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.<blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.<blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.<blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.<blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.<blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.<blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).<blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.<blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.<blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.<blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).<blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.<blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OKTA":"Okta Inc.","CNQ":"加国自然资源","SBUX":"星巴克",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SHLS":"Shoals Technologies Group","CG":"凯雷","YETI":"YETI Holdings Inc.","PLTK":"Playtika Holding Corp.","RSG":"共和废品处理","ALGN":"艾利科技","CF":"CF工业","SBNY":"签字银行","CVE":"Cenovus能源","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161146997","content_text":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.\nThe cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The S&P 500 index is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes Starbucks (ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy (CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank (SBNY),Align Technology (ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI),Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS),CF Industries (CF),Okta (OKTA),Playtika Holding (PLTK), and Republic Services (RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CF":0.9,"CNQ":0.9,"MRVI":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"SBNY":0.9,"ALGN":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"RSG":0.9,"SHLS":0.9,"CG":0.9,"YETI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FBHS":0.9,"PLTK":0.9,"CVE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":88,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}