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Michael721
2021-10-05

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This veteran analyst hears echoes of the 1929 crash in today’s stock market<blockquote>这位资深分析师在今天的股市中听到了1929年崩盘的回声</blockquote>

There are some signs of a recovery attempt following Monday’s wipeout, chiefly for techs. The Nasdaq

This veteran analyst hears echoes of the 1929 crash in today’s stock market<blockquote>这位资深分析师在今天的股市中听到了1929年崩盘的回声</blockquote>

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The Nasdaq","content":"There are some signs of a recovery attempt following Monday’s wipeout, chiefly for techs. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMPisteetering toward correction territory&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500SPXand Dow industrialsDJIAare halfway there. With jobs data looming for Friday, even the bravest dip buyers may have second thoughts.<blockquote>在周一的暴跌之后，有一些复苏的迹象，主要是科技股。纳斯达克综合指数正在走向调整区域，标准普尔500SPX和道琼斯工业平均指数已经走到了一半。随着周五就业数据的临近，即使是最勇敢的逢低买入者也可能会改变主意。</blockquote> Don’t look for reassurance in our&nbsp;call of the day, where the founder and CEO ofBullAndBearProfits.com, Jon Wolfenbarger, predicts U.S. stocks may be “on the verge of starting the biggest bear market since the Great Depression.”<blockquote>不要在我们的今日看涨期权BullandBearProfits.com创始人兼首席执行官乔恩·沃尔芬伯格(Jon Wolfenbarger)预测，美国股市可能“即将开启自大萧条以来最大的熊市”。</blockquote> “Now with the Fed talking about tapering and money supply growth slowing&nbsp;significantly from 39% y/y in February to only 8% y/y in August, perhaps that is&nbsp;enough of a ‘tight monetary policy’ to change investor psychology to a more&nbsp;bearish mood? We will see,” he said in a Monday interview and follow-up comments with MarketWatch.<blockquote>“现在，随着美联储谈论缩减购债规模，货币供应增长从2月份的同比39%大幅放缓至8月份的同比仅8%，也许‘紧缩货币政策’足以将投资者心理转变为更悲观的情绪？我们拭目以待，”他在周一接受MarketWatch采访和后续评论时表示。</blockquote> Wolfenbarger, who spent 22 years as an equity analyst at Allianz Global Investors, said while he’s not a permabear — his newsletter offers strategies for profiting when markets go both ways — investors should heed some warnings signs.<blockquote>Wolfenbarger在Allianz Global Investors担任了22年的股票分析师，他表示，虽然他不是永久看跌者——他的时事通讯提供了在市场双向波动时获利的策略——但投资者应该注意一些警告信号。</blockquote> Overbullish sentiment, economic weakness, excessive debt levels and limited policy tools are key ingredients for a market rout worse than that seen in 2008-09, he said, adding that a top for the S&amp;P 500 reached a few weeks ago could have been the start.<blockquote>他表示，过度看涨情绪、经济疲软、债务水平过高和政策工具有限是导致市场暴跌比2008-09年更严重的关键因素，并补充说，几周前达到的标普500顶部可能是开始。</blockquote> One chart he’s watching that&nbsp;predicts future long-term stock returns— a favorite of legendary investor Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire HathawayBRKBRK— shows equities 30% above the prior all-time high seen in the tech bubble peak of 2000.<blockquote>他正在观看的一张预测未来长期股票回报的图表（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官、传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的最爱）显示，股市比2000年科技泡沫高峰时的历史高点高出30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e73964c10e0be9d02489e2764a98be5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Wolfenbarger is watching S&amp;P 500 moving averages closely. If the 250-day, currently at 4,020, were to “really break through” that could trip a major drop for stock. His below chart shows the S&amp;P 500 price (black line) with its 250-dma since 1980. The red circles indicate when it fell below the 250-dma and the 250-dma slope was falling.<blockquote>沃尔芬伯格正在密切关注标普500移动平均线。如果250日线（目前为4,020点）“真正突破”，可能会导致股价大幅下跌。他的下图显示了标普500价格（黑线）自1980年以来的250日均线。红色圆圈表示何时跌破250-dma并且250-dma斜率正在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31fb05ef85111232a3410a405e05f72\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As for what investors should do — Wolfenbarger advised using exchange-traded funds that actually go up in bear markets, which could be the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLTor SPDR Gold SharesGLD,&nbsp;though he prefers inverse ETFs such as ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P 500SDSand the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500SH.<blockquote>至于投资者应该做什么——Wolfenbarger建议使用在熊市中实际上涨的交易所交易基金，这可能是iShares 20+年期国债ETFTLTor SPDR Gold SharesGLD，尽管他更喜欢ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P 500SDS和ProShares Short S&amp;P 500SH。</blockquote> “I personally think it’s easier for most people to just buy an inverse ETF because it moves the same way as a normal stock and ETF, and the SH went up 89% in the last bear market,” he said, adding that SDS went up 184%.<blockquote>“我个人认为，对于大多数人来说，购买反向ETF更容易，因为它的走势与普通股票和ETF相同，而且SH在上一次熊市中上涨了89%，”他说，并补充说SDS上涨了184%。</blockquote> Wolfenbarger said he has honed his strategies after adhering for years to Buffett’s advice of just&nbsp;buying and holding an S&amp;P 500 index fund.<blockquote>Wolfenbarger表示，多年来一直坚持巴菲特的建议，即只购买并持有标普500指数基金，他已经磨练了自己的策略。</blockquote> “But then I started looking at history and you know it took 25 years for the market to get back to the 1929 peak, and I don’t have 25 years,” said Wolfenbarger, who is in his early 50s. “Any given investment can go down 50% to 90% and it can stay down for decades, at least 10 to 20 years.”<blockquote>“但后来我开始回顾历史，你知道市场花了25年时间才回到1929年的峰值，而我没有25年的时间，”50岁出头的沃尔芬伯格说。“任何给定的投资都可能下降50%到90%，并且可以持续数十年，至少10到20年。”</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The Nasdaq CompositeCOMPisteetering toward correction territory&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500SPXand Dow industrialsDJIAare halfway there. With jobs data looming for Friday, even the bravest dip buyers may have second thoughts.<blockquote>在周一的暴跌之后，有一些复苏的迹象，主要是科技股。纳斯达克综合指数正在走向调整区域，标准普尔500SPX和道琼斯工业平均指数已经走到了一半。随着周五就业数据的临近，即使是最勇敢的逢低买入者也可能会改变主意。</blockquote> Don’t look for reassurance in our&nbsp;call of the day, where the founder and CEO ofBullAndBearProfits.com, Jon Wolfenbarger, predicts U.S. stocks may be “on the verge of starting the biggest bear market since the Great Depression.”<blockquote>不要在我们的今日看涨期权BullandBearProfits.com创始人兼首席执行官乔恩·沃尔芬伯格(Jon Wolfenbarger)预测，美国股市可能“即将开启自大萧条以来最大的熊市”。</blockquote> “Now with the Fed talking about tapering and money supply growth slowing&nbsp;significantly from 39% y/y in February to only 8% y/y in August, perhaps that is&nbsp;enough of a ‘tight monetary policy’ to change investor psychology to a more&nbsp;bearish mood? We will see,” he said in a Monday interview and follow-up comments with MarketWatch.<blockquote>“现在，随着美联储谈论缩减购债规模，货币供应增长从2月份的同比39%大幅放缓至8月份的同比仅8%，也许‘紧缩货币政策’足以将投资者心理转变为更悲观的情绪？我们拭目以待，”他在周一接受MarketWatch采访和后续评论时表示。</blockquote> Wolfenbarger, who spent 22 years as an equity analyst at Allianz Global Investors, said while he’s not a permabear — his newsletter offers strategies for profiting when markets go both ways — investors should heed some warnings signs.<blockquote>Wolfenbarger在Allianz Global Investors担任了22年的股票分析师，他表示，虽然他不是永久看跌者——他的时事通讯提供了在市场双向波动时获利的策略——但投资者应该注意一些警告信号。</blockquote> Overbullish sentiment, economic weakness, excessive debt levels and limited policy tools are key ingredients for a market rout worse than that seen in 2008-09, he said, adding that a top for the S&amp;P 500 reached a few weeks ago could have been the start.<blockquote>他表示，过度看涨情绪、经济疲软、债务水平过高和政策工具有限是导致市场暴跌比2008-09年更严重的关键因素，并补充说，几周前达到的标普500顶部可能是开始。</blockquote> One chart he’s watching that&nbsp;predicts future long-term stock returns— a favorite of legendary investor Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire HathawayBRKBRK— shows equities 30% above the prior all-time high seen in the tech bubble peak of 2000.<blockquote>他正在观看的一张预测未来长期股票回报的图表（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官、传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的最爱）显示，股市比2000年科技泡沫高峰时的历史高点高出30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e73964c10e0be9d02489e2764a98be5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Wolfenbarger is watching S&amp;P 500 moving averages closely. If the 250-day, currently at 4,020, were to “really break through” that could trip a major drop for stock. His below chart shows the S&amp;P 500 price (black line) with its 250-dma since 1980. The red circles indicate when it fell below the 250-dma and the 250-dma slope was falling.<blockquote>沃尔芬伯格正在密切关注标普500移动平均线。如果250日线（目前为4,020点）“真正突破”，可能会导致股价大幅下跌。他的下图显示了标普500价格（黑线）自1980年以来的250日均线。红色圆圈表示何时跌破250-dma并且250-dma斜率正在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31fb05ef85111232a3410a405e05f72\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As for what investors should do — Wolfenbarger advised using exchange-traded funds that actually go up in bear markets, which could be the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLTor SPDR Gold SharesGLD,&nbsp;though he prefers inverse ETFs such as ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P 500SDSand the ProShares Short S&amp;P 500SH.<blockquote>至于投资者应该做什么——Wolfenbarger建议使用在熊市中实际上涨的交易所交易基金，这可能是iShares 20+年期国债ETFTLTor SPDR Gold SharesGLD，尽管他更喜欢ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P 500SDS和ProShares Short S&amp;P 500SH。</blockquote> “I personally think it’s easier for most people to just buy an inverse ETF because it moves the same way as a normal stock and ETF, and the SH went up 89% in the last bear market,” he said, adding that SDS went up 184%.<blockquote>“我个人认为，对于大多数人来说，购买反向ETF更容易，因为它的走势与普通股票和ETF相同，而且SH在上一次熊市中上涨了89%，”他说，并补充说SDS上涨了184%。</blockquote> Wolfenbarger said he has honed his strategies after adhering for years to Buffett’s advice of just&nbsp;buying and holding an S&amp;P 500 index fund.<blockquote>Wolfenbarger表示，多年来一直坚持巴菲特的建议，即只购买并持有标普500指数基金，他已经磨练了自己的策略。</blockquote> “But then I started looking at history and you know it took 25 years for the market to get back to the 1929 peak, and I don’t have 25 years,” said Wolfenbarger, who is in his early 50s. “Any given investment can go down 50% to 90% and it can stay down for decades, at least 10 to 20 years.”<blockquote>“但后来我开始回顾历史，你知道市场花了25年时间才回到1929年的峰值，而我没有25年的时间，”50岁出头的沃尔芬伯格说。“任何给定的投资都可能下降50%到90%，并且可以持续数十年，至少10到20年。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-veteran-analyst-sees-stocks-headed-for-the-biggest-bear-market-since-the-great-depression-11633432477?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-veteran-analyst-sees-stocks-headed-for-the-biggest-bear-market-since-the-great-depression-11633432477?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1140243685","content_text":"There are some signs of a recovery attempt following Monday’s wipeout, chiefly for techs. The Nasdaq CompositeCOMPisteetering toward correction territory and the S&P 500SPXand Dow industrialsDJIAare halfway there. With jobs data looming for Friday, even the bravest dip buyers may have second thoughts.\nDon’t look for reassurance in our call of the day, where the founder and CEO ofBullAndBearProfits.com, Jon Wolfenbarger, predicts U.S. stocks may be “on the verge of starting the biggest bear market since the Great Depression.”\n“Now with the Fed talking about tapering and money supply growth slowing significantly from 39% y/y in February to only 8% y/y in August, perhaps that is enough of a ‘tight monetary policy’ to change investor psychology to a more bearish mood? We will see,” he said in a Monday interview and follow-up comments with MarketWatch.\nWolfenbarger, who spent 22 years as an equity analyst at Allianz Global Investors, said while he’s not a permabear — his newsletter offers strategies for profiting when markets go both ways — investors should heed some warnings signs.\nOverbullish sentiment, economic weakness, excessive debt levels and limited policy tools are key ingredients for a market rout worse than that seen in 2008-09, he said, adding that a top for the S&P 500 reached a few weeks ago could have been the start.\nOne chart he’s watching that predicts future long-term stock returns— a favorite of legendary investor Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire HathawayBRKBRK— shows equities 30% above the prior all-time high seen in the tech bubble peak of 2000.\n\nWolfenbarger is watching S&P 500 moving averages closely. If the 250-day, currently at 4,020, were to “really break through” that could trip a major drop for stock. His below chart shows the S&P 500 price (black line) with its 250-dma since 1980. The red circles indicate when it fell below the 250-dma and the 250-dma slope was falling.\n\nAs for what investors should do — Wolfenbarger advised using exchange-traded funds that actually go up in bear markets, which could be the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLTor SPDR Gold SharesGLD, though he prefers inverse ETFs such as ProShares UltraShort S&P 500SDSand the ProShares Short S&P 500SH.\n“I personally think it’s easier for most people to just buy an inverse ETF because it moves the same way as a normal stock and ETF, and the SH went up 89% in the last bear market,” he said, adding that SDS went up 184%.\nWolfenbarger said he has honed his strategies after adhering for years to Buffett’s advice of just buying and holding an S&P 500 index fund.\n“But then I started looking at history and you know it took 25 years for the market to get back to the 1929 peak, and I don’t have 25 years,” said Wolfenbarger, who is in his early 50s. “Any given investment can go down 50% to 90% and it can stay down for decades, at least 10 to 20 years.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}