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2021-08-18

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Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote>

Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas

Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote>

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Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示这场辩论是多么的分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>美联储利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会7月27日至28日会议纪要将于下午2点发布。东部时间周三。他们是在一次会议上结束的，会上官员们更新了他们的政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对乐观情绪提出了警告，承认受大流行打击的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时性因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方传达的信息是：是时候谈论缩减了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>FOMC在7月份重申，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并增加了新的措辞，强化了可能在第四季度开始缩减规模的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，购买计划将继续实施，“直到在实现最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进一步进展”，并补充道：“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将继续在即将举行的会议上评估进展。”</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)经济学家凯西·博斯特詹西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)表示：“独特的不平衡经济复苏导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。”鹰派认为，美联储应该在今年秋天开始缩减规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快加息提供余地，而鸽派成员则希望等待通胀步伐更加明朗。她说，供应受限的劳动力市场状况。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自7月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者已经听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽早开始缩减规模，指出通胀泡沫和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应该很快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示了特别的担忧。taper阵营中的其他人包括波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren、圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard和美联储理事Christopher Waller，尽管这些所谓的鹰派人士在速度上存在分歧（例如，Kaplan希望缩减8个月，而Bullard则看到了5个月的跑道）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入7月会议纪要并展望8月底美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减购债时机的关键是美联储领导层的立场。随着地区联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会内外轮换，一些对缩减购债规模呼声最高的成员目前并不是投票成员。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一次，他已经明确了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>鲍威尔在7月份的新闻发布会上对记者表示：“我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。”“关于什么时机合适，有一系列观点。这些观点最终可以追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及随着我们朝着目标取得进展将会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结局是什么，至少目前是这样？天平仍然倾向于迟早缩小。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>林根表示：“虽然我们似乎倾向于在9月份发布公告，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对8月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储方面的任何紧迫性。”密歇根大学上周五报告的消费者信心指数下降。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充道，这并不是说9月与11月或12月的官方缩减购债规模没有区别。“毕竟，假设是越早削减资产购买，美联储就能越快加息。如果通货膨胀决定。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示这场辩论是多么的分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>美联储利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会7月27日至28日会议纪要将于下午2点发布。东部时间周三。他们是在一次会议上结束的，会上官员们更新了他们的政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对乐观情绪提出了警告，承认受大流行打击的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时性因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方传达的信息是：是时候谈论缩减了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>FOMC在7月份重申，将继续每月购买1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并增加了新的措辞，强化了可能在第四季度开始缩减规模的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，购买计划将继续实施，“直到在实现最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进一步进展”，并补充道：“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将继续在即将举行的会议上评估进展。”</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)经济学家凯西·博斯特詹西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)表示：“独特的不平衡经济复苏导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。”鹰派认为，美联储应该在今年秋天开始缩减规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快加息提供余地，而鸽派成员则希望等待通胀步伐更加明朗。她说，供应受限的劳动力市场状况。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自7月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者已经听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽早开始缩减规模，指出通胀泡沫和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应该很快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示了特别的担忧。taper阵营中的其他人包括波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren、圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard和美联储理事Christopher Waller，尽管这些所谓的鹰派人士在速度上存在分歧（例如，Kaplan希望缩减8个月，而Bullard则看到了5个月的跑道）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入7月会议纪要并展望8月底美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减购债时机的关键是美联储领导层的立场。随着地区联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会内外轮换，一些对缩减购债规模呼声最高的成员目前并不是投票成员。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一次，他已经明确了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>鲍威尔在7月份的新闻发布会上对记者表示：“我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。”“关于什么时机合适，有一系列观点。这些观点最终可以追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及随着我们朝着目标取得进展将会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结局是什么，至少目前是这样？天平仍然倾向于迟早缩小。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>林根表示：“虽然我们似乎倾向于在9月份发布公告，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对8月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储方面的任何紧迫性。”密歇根大学上周五报告的消费者信心指数下降。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充道，这并不是说9月与11月或12月的官方缩减购债规模没有区别。“毕竟，假设是越早削减资产购买，美联储就能越快加息。如果通货膨胀决定。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储7月会议纪要今天公布。寻找缩减辩论的线索。</blockquote>

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