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2021-08-19

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Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>

‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee 'Wall Street' in the pre-working from hom

Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>

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EVERETT COLLECTION<blockquote>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</blockquote> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.<blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将2021年股市的上涨与1987年的模式进行了比较，1987年看似无情的反弹被10月份的“黑色星期一”崩盘彻底摧毁，但也存在一些重要差异。</blockquote> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.<blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实是合适的，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”<blockquote>“从对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于1987年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德·福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.<blockquote>但他表示，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至1987年8月17日，大盘股基准上涨了36%，而2021年同期仅上涨了18%。</blockquote> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.<blockquote>至于前两年，1985年和1986年，标普500的总回报率分别为31%和18%，与2019年和2020年的回报率相同，Colas承认这有点“怪异”。然而，他坚称，2021年的反弹与1987年的情况相比仍然“相形见绌”。</blockquote> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.<blockquote>周三，股市大多走低，此前一天，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均结束了连续五个交易日的创纪录收盘。</blockquote> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.<blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group的分析师本周指出，标普500即将创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五次，也是2021年的第49次。这使得该指数今年有望创下78个收盘高点，这将超过1995年创下的77个收盘高点。</blockquote> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.<blockquote>Bespoke分析师警告说，这并不确定，并指出即使是5%的回调也可能削弱保持破纪录步伐的能力。他们指出，自1950年以来，截至8月16日，标普500有五年创下了40多项历史新高，虽然1995年和1964年都是这些年份的领先者，但1987年、1997年和1998年等年份也创下了40多项历史新高，但没有一项在年底创下超过50项历史新高。</blockquote> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).<blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收高节奏对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，这基本上是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括1987年（见下表）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP<blockquote>定制投资集团</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.<blockquote>分析师指出，该标普500今年迄今的收益与表中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”<blockquote>“展望未来，从8月16日收盘到年底，该指数今年剩余时间的中值表现为7.7%，五分之四为正回报，是今年剩余时间平均表现的两倍多。自1950年以来的所有年份，”他们写道，并指出“唯一的例外是1987年，这太棒了。”</blockquote> So what should investors make of it all?<blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”<blockquote>Bespoke分析师指出，通常的警告是适用的——没有保证，过去的表现并不代表未来的结果——但数据确实强调了“实力往往会带来市场实力”的观察结果。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将2021年股市反弹与1987年崩盘前的夏季进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-19 07:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee<blockquote>“力量往往会产生力量”，但这并不能保证</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION<blockquote>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</blockquote> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.<blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将2021年股市的上涨与1987年的模式进行了比较，1987年看似无情的反弹被10月份的“黑色星期一”崩盘彻底摧毁，但也存在一些重要差异。</blockquote> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.<blockquote>DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实是合适的，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”<blockquote>“从对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于1987年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德·福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.<blockquote>但他表示，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至1987年8月17日，大盘股基准上涨了36%，而2021年同期仅上涨了18%。</blockquote> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.<blockquote>至于前两年，1985年和1986年，标普500的总回报率分别为31%和18%，与2019年和2020年的回报率相同，Colas承认这有点“怪异”。然而，他坚称，2021年的反弹与1987年的情况相比仍然“相形见绌”。</blockquote> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.<blockquote>周三，股市大多走低，此前一天，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均结束了连续五个交易日的创纪录收盘。</blockquote> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.<blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group的分析师本周指出，标普500即将创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五次，也是2021年的第49次。这使得该指数今年有望创下78个收盘高点，这将超过1995年创下的77个收盘高点。</blockquote> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.<blockquote>Bespoke分析师警告说，这并不确定，并指出即使是5%的回调也可能削弱保持破纪录步伐的能力。他们指出，自1950年以来，截至8月16日，标普500有五年创下了40多项历史新高，虽然1995年和1964年都是这些年份的领先者，但1987年、1997年和1998年等年份也创下了40多项历史新高，但没有一项在年底创下超过50项历史新高。</blockquote> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).<blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收高节奏对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，这基本上是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括1987年（见下表）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP<blockquote>定制投资集团</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.<blockquote>分析师指出，该标普500今年迄今的收益与表中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”<blockquote>“展望未来，从8月16日收盘到年底，该指数今年剩余时间的中值表现为7.7%，五分之四为正回报，是今年剩余时间平均表现的两倍多。自1950年以来的所有年份，”他们写道，并指出“唯一的例外是1987年，这太棒了。”</blockquote> So what should investors make of it all?<blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”<blockquote>Bespoke分析师指出，通常的警告是适用的——没有保证，过去的表现并不代表未来的结果——但数据确实强调了“实力往往会带来市场实力”的观察结果。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161930198","content_text":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION\nSome investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.\nGranted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.\n“Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”\nBut the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.\nAs for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.\nStocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.\nMeanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.\nIt’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.\nBut more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).\nBESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP\nThe S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.\n“Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”\nSo what should investors make of it all?\nThe Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2569,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}