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2021-08-16

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What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market<blockquote>阿富汗政府垮台对美国股市可能意味着什么</blockquote>

After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions

What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market<blockquote>阿富汗政府垮台对美国股市可能意味着什么</blockquote>

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Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told MarketWatch in emailed comments on Sunday.<blockquote>“对于那些仍在那里的美国人来说，这是一个可怕的情况，”J.J.德美利证券首席市场策略师基纳汉周日在电子邮件评论中告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote> \"As far as the markets go, we'll have to wait and see on the longer-term implications,\" he said.<blockquote>“就市场而言，我们必须观望长期影响，”他说。</blockquote> Futures, however, were tilting lower, with those for the S&amp;P 500 , the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 all showing modest declines, but hardly indicating that the market's bull run amid COVID-19 was in jeopardy.<blockquote>然而，期货价格走低，标普500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克100指数均小幅下跌，但几乎不表明市场在COVID-19期间的牛市处于危险之中。</blockquote> The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction.<blockquote>周日晚间，纽约基准10年期国债收益率报1.27%，吸引了一些避险买盘，政府债务价格上涨，收益率走势相反。</blockquote> Taliban fighters took over Kabul , fearing retaliation in the new regime.<blockquote>塔利班战士接管了喀布尔，担心新政权的报复。</blockquote> President Joe Biden has rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul .<blockquote>乔·拜登总统已向喀布尔派遣5000名士兵。</blockquote> The U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.'s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined .<blockquote>美国在阿富汗的存在跨越了乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和拜登总统的任期，始于2001年9月11日世贸中心和五角大楼遇袭后，现在被认为是美国最长的军事冲突，超过了第一次世界大战、第二次世界大战和朝鲜战争的总和。</blockquote> Biden's decision to remove troops from Afghanistan came after Trump's concessions to withdraw U.S. forces , had made the case that it would destabilize the tenuous Afghanistan leadership, leaving it vulnerable to insurgent groups.<blockquote>拜登决定从阿富汗撤军之前，特朗普做出了撤出美军的让步，这表明这将破坏脆弱的阿富汗领导层的稳定，使其容易受到叛乱组织的攻击。</blockquote> For the most part, stock-market investors have been mostly sanguine amid the long-running conflict that has cost an estimated $2.261 trillion, according to research from Brown University's Watson Institute of International Public Affairs , which also estimates that 241,000 people have died as a direct result of the war.<blockquote>根据布朗大学沃森国际公共事务研究所的研究，在很大程度上，股市投资者在这场估计造成2.261万亿美元损失的长期冲突中大多持乐观态度，该研究所还估计有241,000人死亡。战争的直接结果。</blockquote> The Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&amp;P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.<blockquote>自2001年秋季以来，道琼斯指数上涨了近270%，标普500上涨了300%以上，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了700%以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502f052f480a29bd870006528642c220\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's worth noting that the benchmark 10-year was yielding between 4% and 5% around that time.<blockquote>值得注意的是，当时基准10年期国债收益率在4%至5%之间。</blockquote> Historically, military conflict doesn't always have an impact on stocks, and war's influence, if any, on investors' psyches isn't always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.<blockquote>从历史上看，军事冲突并不总是对股市产生影响，战争对投资者心理的影响（如果有的话）也并不总是明确的。背景、经济和市场环境往往是更大的驱动因素。</blockquote> The U.S. was already in the throes of a recession when the attacks of 9/11 hit and the market initially dipped sharply after the attacks.<blockquote>当9/11袭击发生时，美国已经处于经济衰退的阵痛之中，袭击发生后市场最初大幅下跌。</blockquote> Markets currently are attempting to claw back from the hit caused by COVID-19 and the spread of the delta variant, with questions about the policy plans by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, at the front of investors' minds.<blockquote>市场目前正试图从COVID-19和德尔塔变异毒株蔓延造成的打击中恢复过来，投资者首先想到的是对美联储和其他央行政策计划的质疑。</blockquote> Still, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up.<blockquote>尽管如此，军事侵略可能会导致一些投资者转向押注国防承包商，如果敌意爆发，国防承包商可能会得到提振。</blockquote> Northrop Grumman Corp.'s stock <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOC\">$(NOC)$</a> is up nearly 880% and Lockeed Martin Corp.'s shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$(LMT)$</a> are up 834% since 2001, while Boeing Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a> is up 439%, and General Dynamics Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GD\">$(GD)$</a> is up over 422%, all of which outperformed the broader market during that period.<blockquote>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOC\">$（夜间）$</a>上涨近880%，锁定马丁公司股价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$(LMT)$</a>自2001年以来增长了834%，而波音公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a>上涨439%，通用动力公司(General Dynamics Corp.)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GD\">$(GD)$</a>上涨超过422%，均跑赢同期大盘。</blockquote> So far this year, Lockheed's stock is underperforming the broader market, up 0.9%, as is Boeing's, which has gained 9.5% in the year to date.<blockquote>今年迄今为止，洛克希德公司的股价表现逊于大盘，上涨了0.9%，波音公司的股价也是如此，今年迄今为止上涨了9.5%。</blockquote> One popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITA\">$(ITA)$</a> exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAR.UK\">$(XAR.UK)$</a>, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.<blockquote>广泛参与国防承包商的一种流行方式是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>美国航空航天与国防<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITA\">$(ITA)$</a>交易所交易基金成立于2006年，2021年迄今已上涨13.7%。SPDR S&amp;P航空航天与国防ETF<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAR.UK\">$(XAR.UK)$</a>该计划于2011年启动，今年迄今已上涨7%。</blockquote> Overall, strategists had already been warning about the possibility of a correction as concerns about peak earnings and economic growth grow and many analysts see the Afghan escalation as simply adding to a wall of worry.<blockquote>总体而言，策略师已经警告称，随着对盈利和经济增长峰值的担忧加剧，可能会出现调整，许多分析师认为阿富汗局势升级只是加剧了担忧。</blockquote> TDAmeritrade's Kinahan said that we \"should see a lift in volatility, and perhaps some fixed-income purchasing, as this puts an element of uncertainty into the market.\"<blockquote>TDAmeritrade的Kinahan表示，我们“应该会看到波动性上升，或许还会看到一些固定收益购买，因为这给市场带来了不确定性。”</blockquote> But don't be surprised if the market's reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive, as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market's sometimes odd reaction to war , summing it up thusly.<blockquote>但如果市场对军事紧张局势可能性的反应违反直觉，请不要感到惊讶，正如Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC的投资组合经理本·卡尔森(Ben Carlson)过去曾写过有关市场对战争有时会做出奇怪反应的文章，并这样总结。</blockquote> \"Markets don't always respond to geopolitical events the way you think.\"<blockquote>“市场并不总是像你想象的那样对地缘政治事件做出反应。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told MarketWatch in emailed comments on Sunday.<blockquote>“对于那些仍在那里的美国人来说，这是一个可怕的情况，”J.J.德美利证券首席市场策略师基纳汉周日在电子邮件评论中告诉MarketWatch。</blockquote> \"As far as the markets go, we'll have to wait and see on the longer-term implications,\" he said.<blockquote>“就市场而言，我们必须观望长期影响，”他说。</blockquote> Futures, however, were tilting lower, with those for the S&amp;P 500 , the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 all showing modest declines, but hardly indicating that the market's bull run amid COVID-19 was in jeopardy.<blockquote>然而，期货价格走低，标普500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克100指数均小幅下跌，但几乎不表明市场在COVID-19期间的牛市处于危险之中。</blockquote> The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction.<blockquote>周日晚间，纽约基准10年期国债收益率报1.27%，吸引了一些避险买盘，政府债务价格上涨，收益率走势相反。</blockquote> Taliban fighters took over Kabul , fearing retaliation in the new regime.<blockquote>塔利班战士接管了喀布尔，担心新政权的报复。</blockquote> President Joe Biden has rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul .<blockquote>乔·拜登总统已向喀布尔派遣5000名士兵。</blockquote> The U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.'s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined .<blockquote>美国在阿富汗的存在跨越了乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和拜登总统的任期，始于2001年9月11日世贸中心和五角大楼遇袭后，现在被认为是美国最长的军事冲突，超过了第一次世界大战、第二次世界大战和朝鲜战争的总和。</blockquote> Biden's decision to remove troops from Afghanistan came after Trump's concessions to withdraw U.S. forces , had made the case that it would destabilize the tenuous Afghanistan leadership, leaving it vulnerable to insurgent groups.<blockquote>拜登决定从阿富汗撤军之前，特朗普做出了撤出美军的让步，这表明这将破坏脆弱的阿富汗领导层的稳定，使其容易受到叛乱组织的攻击。</blockquote> For the most part, stock-market investors have been mostly sanguine amid the long-running conflict that has cost an estimated $2.261 trillion, according to research from Brown University's Watson Institute of International Public Affairs , which also estimates that 241,000 people have died as a direct result of the war.<blockquote>根据布朗大学沃森国际公共事务研究所的研究，在很大程度上，股市投资者在这场估计造成2.261万亿美元损失的长期冲突中大多持乐观态度，该研究所还估计有241,000人死亡。战争的直接结果。</blockquote> The Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&amp;P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.<blockquote>自2001年秋季以来，道琼斯指数上涨了近270%，标普500上涨了300%以上，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了700%以上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502f052f480a29bd870006528642c220\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> It's worth noting that the benchmark 10-year was yielding between 4% and 5% around that time.<blockquote>值得注意的是，当时基准10年期国债收益率在4%至5%之间。</blockquote> Historically, military conflict doesn't always have an impact on stocks, and war's influence, if any, on investors' psyches isn't always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.<blockquote>从历史上看，军事冲突并不总是对股市产生影响，战争对投资者心理的影响（如果有的话）也并不总是明确的。背景、经济和市场环境往往是更大的驱动因素。</blockquote> The U.S. was already in the throes of a recession when the attacks of 9/11 hit and the market initially dipped sharply after the attacks.<blockquote>当9/11袭击发生时，美国已经处于经济衰退的阵痛之中，袭击发生后市场最初大幅下跌。</blockquote> Markets currently are attempting to claw back from the hit caused by COVID-19 and the spread of the delta variant, with questions about the policy plans by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, at the front of investors' minds.<blockquote>市场目前正试图从COVID-19和德尔塔变异毒株蔓延造成的打击中恢复过来，投资者首先想到的是对美联储和其他央行政策计划的质疑。</blockquote> Still, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up.<blockquote>尽管如此，军事侵略可能会导致一些投资者转向押注国防承包商，如果敌意爆发，国防承包商可能会得到提振。</blockquote> Northrop Grumman Corp.'s stock <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOC\">$(NOC)$</a> is up nearly 880% and Lockeed Martin Corp.'s shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$(LMT)$</a> are up 834% since 2001, while Boeing Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a> is up 439%, and General Dynamics Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GD\">$(GD)$</a> is up over 422%, all of which outperformed the broader market during that period.<blockquote>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOC\">$（夜间）$</a>上涨近880%，锁定马丁公司股价<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$(LMT)$</a>自2001年以来增长了834%，而波音公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a>上涨439%，通用动力公司(General Dynamics Corp.)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GD\">$(GD)$</a>上涨超过422%，均跑赢同期大盘。</blockquote> So far this year, Lockheed's stock is underperforming the broader market, up 0.9%, as is Boeing's, which has gained 9.5% in the year to date.<blockquote>今年迄今为止，洛克希德公司的股价表现逊于大盘，上涨了0.9%，波音公司的股价也是如此，今年迄今为止上涨了9.5%。</blockquote> One popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITA\">$(ITA)$</a> exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAR.UK\">$(XAR.UK)$</a>, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.<blockquote>广泛参与国防承包商的一种流行方式是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>美国航空航天与国防<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ITA\">$(ITA)$</a>交易所交易基金成立于2006年，2021年迄今已上涨13.7%。SPDR S&amp;P航空航天与国防ETF<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAR.UK\">$(XAR.UK)$</a>该计划于2011年启动，今年迄今已上涨7%。</blockquote> Overall, strategists had already been warning about the possibility of a correction as concerns about peak earnings and economic growth grow and many analysts see the Afghan escalation as simply adding to a wall of worry.<blockquote>总体而言，策略师已经警告称，随着对盈利和经济增长峰值的担忧加剧，可能会出现调整，许多分析师认为阿富汗局势升级只是加剧了担忧。</blockquote> TDAmeritrade's Kinahan said that we \"should see a lift in volatility, and perhaps some fixed-income purchasing, as this puts an element of uncertainty into the market.\"<blockquote>TDAmeritrade的Kinahan表示，我们“应该会看到波动性上升，或许还会看到一些固定收益购买，因为这给市场带来了不确定性。”</blockquote> But don't be surprised if the market's reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive, as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market's sometimes odd reaction to war , summing it up thusly.<blockquote>但如果市场对军事紧张局势可能性的反应违反直觉，请不要感到惊讶，正如Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC的投资组合经理本·卡尔森(Ben Carlson)过去曾写过有关市场对战争有时会做出奇怪反应的文章，并这样总结。</blockquote> \"Markets don't always respond to geopolitical events the way you think.\"<blockquote>“市场并不总是像你想象的那样对地缘政治事件做出反应。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-collapse-of-the-afghan-government-might-mean-for-the-u-s-stock-market-11629081544?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-collapse-of-the-afghan-government-might-mean-for-the-u-s-stock-market-11629081544?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159246902","content_text":"After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets, amid a weekend that was rife with political developments.\nHowever, the impact to the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite Index trading at or near record highs , is unclear.\n\"It's a terrible situation for those U.S. folks who are still there,\" J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told MarketWatch in emailed comments on Sunday.\n\"As far as the markets go, we'll have to wait and see on the longer-term implications,\" he said.\nFutures, however, were tilting lower, with those for the S&P 500 , the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 all showing modest declines, but hardly indicating that the market's bull run amid COVID-19 was in jeopardy.\nThe benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction.\nTaliban fighters took over Kabul , fearing retaliation in the new regime.\nPresident Joe Biden has rushed 5,000 troops to Kabul .\nThe U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.'s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined .\nBiden's decision to remove troops from Afghanistan came after Trump's concessions to withdraw U.S. forces , had made the case that it would destabilize the tenuous Afghanistan leadership, leaving it vulnerable to insurgent groups.\nFor the most part, stock-market investors have been mostly sanguine amid the long-running conflict that has cost an estimated $2.261 trillion, according to research from Brown University's Watson Institute of International Public Affairs , which also estimates that 241,000 people have died as a direct result of the war.\nThe Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.\n\nIt's worth noting that the benchmark 10-year was yielding between 4% and 5% around that time.\nHistorically, military conflict doesn't always have an impact on stocks, and war's influence, if any, on investors' psyches isn't always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.\nThe U.S. was already in the throes of a recession when the attacks of 9/11 hit and the market initially dipped sharply after the attacks.\nMarkets currently are attempting to claw back from the hit caused by COVID-19 and the spread of the delta variant, with questions about the policy plans by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, at the front of investors' minds.\nStill, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up.\nNorthrop Grumman Corp.'s stock $(NOC)$ is up nearly 880% and Lockeed Martin Corp.'s shares $(LMT)$ are up 834% since 2001, while Boeing Co. $(BA)$ is up 439%, and General Dynamics Corp. $(GD)$ is up over 422%, all of which outperformed the broader market during that period.\nSo far this year, Lockheed's stock is underperforming the broader market, up 0.9%, as is Boeing's, which has gained 9.5% in the year to date.\nOne popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense $(ITA)$ exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF $(XAR.UK)$, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.\nOverall, strategists had already been warning about the possibility of a correction as concerns about peak earnings and economic growth grow and many analysts see the Afghan escalation as simply adding to a wall of worry.\nTDAmeritrade's Kinahan said that we \"should see a lift in volatility, and perhaps some fixed-income purchasing, as this puts an element of uncertainty into the market.\"\nBut don't be surprised if the market's reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive, as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market's sometimes odd reaction to war , summing it up thusly.\n\"Markets don't always respond to geopolitical events the way you think.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1214,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

What the collapse of the Afghan government might mean for the U.S. stock market<blockquote>阿富汗政府垮台对美国股市可能意味着什么</blockquote>

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