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2021-11-02

The Fed Is in a Jam, and That’s Bad News for Investors<blockquote>美联储陷入困境，这对投资者来说是个坏消息</blockquote>

The Federal Reserve is in a jam. Officials at the U.S. central bank are about to begin withdrawing e

The Fed Is in a Jam, and That’s Bad News for Investors<blockquote>美联储陷入困境，这对投资者来说是个坏消息</blockquote>

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Economists across Wall Street say the Fed will on Wednesday announce a $15 billion reduction in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases that will go into effect this month. Tapering at that pace means completion of the program by July 2022.<blockquote>美联储官员即将开始撤回为应对疫情而推出的紧急货币支持。华尔街经济学家表示，美联储将于周三宣布将每月国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量削减150亿美元，并于本月生效。以这个速度缩减意味着该计划将于2022年7月完成。</blockquote> That’s all baked into investor expectations. What isn’t necessarily is that the Fed may have no choice but to become more hawkish at a time when U.S. economic growth is already slowing. Adding insult to injury is uncertainty around fiscal spending and taxes to pay for new programs.<blockquote>这一切都融入了投资者的预期。不一定的是，在美国经济增长已经放缓之际，美联储可能别无选择，只能变得更加鹰派。雪上加霜的是支付新项目的财政支出和税收的不确定性。</blockquote> The biggest question this week is whether the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, will keep its “transitory” language with respect to inflation, says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska. In the face of inflation that is proving much hotter and more persistent than central bankers and economists have predicted, Fed Chairman Jay Powell has remained pretty steadfast in his view that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and therefore temporary. Markowska says the Fed will probably stick with the “transitory” script because not doing so could rattle investors and unhinge the rate-sensitive front-end of the yield curve.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示，本周最大的问题是美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会是否会保留其关于通胀的“过渡性”语言。面对事实证明比央行行长和经济学家预测的更热、更持久的通胀，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔仍然相当坚定地认为，物价上涨是重新开放的结果，因此是暂时的。Markowska表示，美联储可能会坚持“暂时性”方案，因为不这样做可能会让投资者感到不安，并使对利率敏感的收益率曲线前端脱轨。</blockquote> But the inflation-is-transitory case is getting harder to make. Consider the Employment Cost Index released on Friday, which economists say is the preferred wage gauge given that it is a less-volatile quarterly measure that includes full compensation costs. The much bigger-than-expected surge in the third quarter ECI marked the fastest pace of increase since the inception of the series 39 years ago. Labor costs tend to be companies’ biggest expense by far, and such costs are rising quickly as millions remain out of the labor market and employers raise pay to fill a record amount of open positions.<blockquote>但通货膨胀是暂时的说法越来越难成立。以周五发布的就业成本指数为例，经济学家表示，该指数是首选的工资指标，因为它是一项波动性较小的季度指标，包括全部薪酬成本。第三季度ECI的增幅远高于预期，标志着该系列自39年前推出以来最快的增长速度。劳动力成本往往是公司迄今为止最大的支出，随着数百万人仍被排除在劳动力市场之外，以及雇主提高工资以填补创纪录数量的空缺职位，此类成本正在迅速上升。</blockquote> The acute labor shortage is the root of the everything-shortage. When the Labor Department releases its October employment situation report on Friday, economists expect to see hiring that is still lackluster and wages that are rising faster as millions of workers remain on the sidelines for myriad reasons. If labor-force participation is structurally lower than policy makers believe, it means the U.S. economy is much closer to full employment than they think and inflation has nowhere to go but higher.<blockquote>严重的劳动力短缺是一切短缺的根源。当劳工部周五发布10月份就业形势报告时，经济学家预计招聘仍然低迷，工资上涨更快，因为数百万工人出于各种原因仍处于观望状态。如果劳动力参与率在结构性上低于政策制定者认为的，这意味着美国经济比他们想象的更接近充分就业，通胀除了更高之外别无选择。</blockquote> Against that backdrop, some economists say the Fed is likely to drop its “transitory” inflation language this week. What’s more, says Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk, “Powell said that the Fed could accelerate the tapering process if necessary to get to liftoff sooner; that is looking more probable.”<blockquote>在此背景下，一些经济学家表示，美联储本周可能会放弃“暂时性”通胀措辞。此外，均富首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，“鲍威尔表示，如有必要，美联储可以加快缩减规模的进程，以更快地启动；这看起来更有可能。”</blockquote> Already, investors are betting that the Fed will raise rates sooner than the central bank has communicated. Economists at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;last week pulled forward their liftoff forecast by a full year, to July 2022, just after tapering should conclude, citing higher inflation forecasts. “We now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3%—and core CPI inflation above 4%—when the taper concludes,” they say, referring respectively to the Personal Consumption Expenditure index and Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. The former is the Fed’s favored inflation metric; historically, the central bank has sought to anchor inflation at 2%. Goldman predicts a second rate increase in November 2022 and then one every six months after that.<blockquote>投资者已经押注美联储将比央行沟通的更早加息。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的经济学家上周将他们的起飞预测提前了一整年，至2022年7月，就在缩减规模应该结束之后，理由是通胀预测上升。他们表示：“我们现在预计，当缩减结束时，核心PCE通胀率将保持在3%以上，核心CPI通胀率将保持在4%以上。”他们分别指的是个人消费支出指数和消费者价格指数，不包括食品和能源。前者是美联储青睐的通胀指标；从历史上看，央行一直寻求将通胀率稳定在2%。高盛预计2022年11月将第二次加息，此后每六个月加息一次。</blockquote> Markowska at Jefferies says Powell is likely to push back on rising expectations for an early liftoff, but he will have to walk a very fine line. Pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations, with increased doubt among investors and consumers that the Fed will sufficiently address inflation only reinforcing pricing pressures. At the same time, not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve, Markowska says, meaning inventors could start to price in earlier and more aggressive tightening.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)的马科斯卡(Markowska)表示，鲍威尔可能会抑制对提前起飞的预期不断上升，但他必须谨慎行事。过于强烈的抑制可能会扰乱通胀预期，投资者和消费者越来越怀疑美联储是否会充分解决通胀问题，只会加剧定价压力。与此同时，Markowska表示，根本不进行反击可能会扰乱收益率曲线的前端，这意味着发明者可能会开始考虑更早、更激进的紧缩政策。</blockquote> Many observers have argued that monetary policy can’t affect supply shortages that are largely behind economywide price surges. That’s only partly true. After all, consumers are sitting on trillions of savings—a cushion that amounts to about 10% of gross domestic product—and robust demand alongside supply shortfalls has exacerbated shortages to propel inflation higher. Monetary policy is meant to affect demand, and a slowdown in this environment would in theory allow supply chains to thaw and businesses a chance to replenish inventories, in turn cooling pricing pressures.<blockquote>许多观察家认为，货币政策无法影响供应短缺，而供应短缺在很大程度上是整个经济价格飙升的原因。这只是部分正确。毕竟，消费者坐拥数万亿美元的储蓄——这一缓冲相当于国内生产总值的10%左右——而强劲的需求加上供应短缺加剧了短缺，推高了通胀。货币政策旨在影响需求，理论上，这种环境下的放缓将使供应链解冻，企业有机会补充库存，从而冷却定价压力。</blockquote> The problem is that demand is already falling. Last week’s third-quarter GDP report reflected the slowest rate of growth since the recovery from pandemic-driven shutdowns began, as consumers pulled back, federal government spending fell, exports fell and business spending on fixed investments declined. Rising prices are one factor behind slowing consumption; it is conceivable, then, that if tighter monetary policy further slows demand and prices in turn cool, demand is reignited.<blockquote>问题是需求已经在下降。上周的第三季度GDP报告反映了自大流行导致的停工开始复苏以来的最慢增长率，原因是消费者退出、联邦政府支出下降、出口下降以及企业固定投资支出下降。物价上涨是消费放缓的一个因素；因此，可以想象，如果紧缩的货币政策进一步减缓需求，价格反过来降温，需求就会重新点燃。</blockquote> It is also possible that a recession happens along the way. As Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics puts it: ”Respectable arguments can still be made that the surge in inflation in both prices and wages will not persist indefinitely, but the danger is that the Fed could be pushed into taking action as insurance against these arguments being wrong.”<blockquote>也有可能在此过程中发生衰退。正如万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)所说：“仍然可以提出值得尊敬的论点，即物价和工资的通胀飙升不会无限期持续下去，但危险在于美联储可能会被迫采取行动作为针对这些论点的保险。”是错误的。”</blockquote> How these dynamics shake out, from the path of inflation and economic growth to monetary policy expectations and responses, depend largely on what happens with the workforce in the coming months. If millions of workers re-enter the labor force as Covid fears recede, in-person school relieves parents’ child-care struggles and fiscal benefits recede, shortages should dissipate and inflation should slow. If there is more to the story and the labor shortage is more structural than transitory, the Fed is already behind the curve—even if readings on economic growth are underwhelming.<blockquote>从通胀和经济增长路径到货币政策预期和反应，这些动态如何变化，很大程度上取决于未来几个月劳动力的情况。如果随着对新冠疫情的担忧消退，数百万工人重新进入劳动力市场，面授学校缓解了父母的儿童保育困难，财政福利消退，短缺应该会消失，通货膨胀应该会放缓。如果故事还有更多，劳动力短缺更多的是结构性的而不是暂时性的，那么美联储已经落后于形势——即使经济增长数据并不令人印象深刻。</blockquote> All that is to say nothing of the trillions in federal spending still under debate by Democrats in Washington. Roughly $3 trillion in spending between two bills, one covering infrastructure and the other social spending, won’t have the impact of aid packages authorized since the start of the pandemic, says Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. Child-care tax credits, the guts of the larger reconciliation bill, might help more people afford daycare and join the labor force. It’s also possible the monthly payments of up to $360 a month per child make the labor problem worse, Shapiro says.<blockquote>更不用说华盛顿民主党人仍在争论的数万亿联邦支出了。MFR首席美国经济学家乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro)表示，两项法案（一项涵盖基础设施，另一项涵盖社会支出）之间约3万亿美元的支出不会产生自大流行开始以来授权的援助计划的影响。儿童保育税收抵免是更大的和解法案的核心，可能会帮助更多的人负担得起日托费用并加入劳动力队伍。夏皮罗说，每个孩子每月高达360美元的付款也有可能使劳动力问题变得更糟。</blockquote> For the Fed, it adds up to an intensifying quagmire. This week’s monetary policy statement, Powell’s press conference and October jobs report will together give investors the best reading yet on how the chips may fall.<blockquote>对于美联储来说，这加剧了泥潭。本周的货币政策声明、鲍威尔的新闻发布会和10月份的就业报告将共同为投资者提供迄今为止关于筹码可能如何下跌的最佳解读。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Is in a Jam, and That’s Bad News for Investors<blockquote>美联储陷入困境，这对投资者来说是个坏消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Is in a Jam, and That’s Bad News for Investors<blockquote>美联储陷入困境，这对投资者来说是个坏消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-11-02 19:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Federal Reserve is in a jam.<blockquote>美联储陷入困境。</blockquote> Officials at the U.S. central bank are about to begin withdrawing emergency monetary support launched in response to the pandemic. Economists across Wall Street say the Fed will on Wednesday announce a $15 billion reduction in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases that will go into effect this month. Tapering at that pace means completion of the program by July 2022.<blockquote>美联储官员即将开始撤回为应对疫情而推出的紧急货币支持。华尔街经济学家表示，美联储将于周三宣布将每月国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量削减150亿美元，并于本月生效。以这个速度缩减意味着该计划将于2022年7月完成。</blockquote> That’s all baked into investor expectations. What isn’t necessarily is that the Fed may have no choice but to become more hawkish at a time when U.S. economic growth is already slowing. Adding insult to injury is uncertainty around fiscal spending and taxes to pay for new programs.<blockquote>这一切都融入了投资者的预期。不一定的是，在美国经济增长已经放缓之际，美联储可能别无选择，只能变得更加鹰派。雪上加霜的是支付新项目的财政支出和税收的不确定性。</blockquote> The biggest question this week is whether the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, will keep its “transitory” language with respect to inflation, says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska. In the face of inflation that is proving much hotter and more persistent than central bankers and economists have predicted, Fed Chairman Jay Powell has remained pretty steadfast in his view that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and therefore temporary. Markowska says the Fed will probably stick with the “transitory” script because not doing so could rattle investors and unhinge the rate-sensitive front-end of the yield curve.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示，本周最大的问题是美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会是否会保留其关于通胀的“过渡性”语言。面对事实证明比央行行长和经济学家预测的更热、更持久的通胀，美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔仍然相当坚定地认为，物价上涨是重新开放的结果，因此是暂时的。Markowska表示，美联储可能会坚持“暂时性”方案，因为不这样做可能会让投资者感到不安，并使对利率敏感的收益率曲线前端脱轨。</blockquote> But the inflation-is-transitory case is getting harder to make. Consider the Employment Cost Index released on Friday, which economists say is the preferred wage gauge given that it is a less-volatile quarterly measure that includes full compensation costs. The much bigger-than-expected surge in the third quarter ECI marked the fastest pace of increase since the inception of the series 39 years ago. Labor costs tend to be companies’ biggest expense by far, and such costs are rising quickly as millions remain out of the labor market and employers raise pay to fill a record amount of open positions.<blockquote>但通货膨胀是暂时的说法越来越难成立。以周五发布的就业成本指数为例，经济学家表示，该指数是首选的工资指标，因为它是一项波动性较小的季度指标，包括全部薪酬成本。第三季度ECI的增幅远高于预期，标志着该系列自39年前推出以来最快的增长速度。劳动力成本往往是公司迄今为止最大的支出，随着数百万人仍被排除在劳动力市场之外，以及雇主提高工资以填补创纪录数量的空缺职位，此类成本正在迅速上升。</blockquote> The acute labor shortage is the root of the everything-shortage. When the Labor Department releases its October employment situation report on Friday, economists expect to see hiring that is still lackluster and wages that are rising faster as millions of workers remain on the sidelines for myriad reasons. If labor-force participation is structurally lower than policy makers believe, it means the U.S. economy is much closer to full employment than they think and inflation has nowhere to go but higher.<blockquote>严重的劳动力短缺是一切短缺的根源。当劳工部周五发布10月份就业形势报告时，经济学家预计招聘仍然低迷，工资上涨更快，因为数百万工人出于各种原因仍处于观望状态。如果劳动力参与率在结构性上低于政策制定者认为的，这意味着美国经济比他们想象的更接近充分就业，通胀除了更高之外别无选择。</blockquote> Against that backdrop, some economists say the Fed is likely to drop its “transitory” inflation language this week. What’s more, says Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk, “Powell said that the Fed could accelerate the tapering process if necessary to get to liftoff sooner; that is looking more probable.”<blockquote>在此背景下，一些经济学家表示，美联储本周可能会放弃“暂时性”通胀措辞。此外，均富首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，“鲍威尔表示，如有必要，美联储可以加快缩减规模的进程，以更快地启动；这看起来更有可能。”</blockquote> Already, investors are betting that the Fed will raise rates sooner than the central bank has communicated. Economists at&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;last week pulled forward their liftoff forecast by a full year, to July 2022, just after tapering should conclude, citing higher inflation forecasts. “We now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3%—and core CPI inflation above 4%—when the taper concludes,” they say, referring respectively to the Personal Consumption Expenditure index and Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. The former is the Fed’s favored inflation metric; historically, the central bank has sought to anchor inflation at 2%. Goldman predicts a second rate increase in November 2022 and then one every six months after that.<blockquote>投资者已经押注美联储将比央行沟通的更早加息。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的经济学家上周将他们的起飞预测提前了一整年，至2022年7月，就在缩减规模应该结束之后，理由是通胀预测上升。他们表示：“我们现在预计，当缩减结束时，核心PCE通胀率将保持在3%以上，核心CPI通胀率将保持在4%以上。”他们分别指的是个人消费支出指数和消费者价格指数，不包括食品和能源。前者是美联储青睐的通胀指标；从历史上看，央行一直寻求将通胀率稳定在2%。高盛预计2022年11月将第二次加息，此后每六个月加息一次。</blockquote> Markowska at Jefferies says Powell is likely to push back on rising expectations for an early liftoff, but he will have to walk a very fine line. Pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations, with increased doubt among investors and consumers that the Fed will sufficiently address inflation only reinforcing pricing pressures. At the same time, not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve, Markowska says, meaning inventors could start to price in earlier and more aggressive tightening.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)的马科斯卡(Markowska)表示，鲍威尔可能会抑制对提前起飞的预期不断上升，但他必须谨慎行事。过于强烈的抑制可能会扰乱通胀预期，投资者和消费者越来越怀疑美联储是否会充分解决通胀问题，只会加剧定价压力。与此同时，Markowska表示，根本不进行反击可能会扰乱收益率曲线的前端，这意味着发明者可能会开始考虑更早、更激进的紧缩政策。</blockquote> Many observers have argued that monetary policy can’t affect supply shortages that are largely behind economywide price surges. That’s only partly true. After all, consumers are sitting on trillions of savings—a cushion that amounts to about 10% of gross domestic product—and robust demand alongside supply shortfalls has exacerbated shortages to propel inflation higher. Monetary policy is meant to affect demand, and a slowdown in this environment would in theory allow supply chains to thaw and businesses a chance to replenish inventories, in turn cooling pricing pressures.<blockquote>许多观察家认为，货币政策无法影响供应短缺，而供应短缺在很大程度上是整个经济价格飙升的原因。这只是部分正确。毕竟，消费者坐拥数万亿美元的储蓄——这一缓冲相当于国内生产总值的10%左右——而强劲的需求加上供应短缺加剧了短缺，推高了通胀。货币政策旨在影响需求，理论上，这种环境下的放缓将使供应链解冻，企业有机会补充库存，从而冷却定价压力。</blockquote> The problem is that demand is already falling. Last week’s third-quarter GDP report reflected the slowest rate of growth since the recovery from pandemic-driven shutdowns began, as consumers pulled back, federal government spending fell, exports fell and business spending on fixed investments declined. Rising prices are one factor behind slowing consumption; it is conceivable, then, that if tighter monetary policy further slows demand and prices in turn cool, demand is reignited.<blockquote>问题是需求已经在下降。上周的第三季度GDP报告反映了自大流行导致的停工开始复苏以来的最慢增长率，原因是消费者退出、联邦政府支出下降、出口下降以及企业固定投资支出下降。物价上涨是消费放缓的一个因素；因此，可以想象，如果紧缩的货币政策进一步减缓需求，价格反过来降温，需求就会重新点燃。</blockquote> It is also possible that a recession happens along the way. As Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics puts it: ”Respectable arguments can still be made that the surge in inflation in both prices and wages will not persist indefinitely, but the danger is that the Fed could be pushed into taking action as insurance against these arguments being wrong.”<blockquote>也有可能在此过程中发生衰退。正如万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)所说：“仍然可以提出值得尊敬的论点，即物价和工资的通胀飙升不会无限期持续下去，但危险在于美联储可能会被迫采取行动作为针对这些论点的保险。”是错误的。”</blockquote> How these dynamics shake out, from the path of inflation and economic growth to monetary policy expectations and responses, depend largely on what happens with the workforce in the coming months. If millions of workers re-enter the labor force as Covid fears recede, in-person school relieves parents’ child-care struggles and fiscal benefits recede, shortages should dissipate and inflation should slow. If there is more to the story and the labor shortage is more structural than transitory, the Fed is already behind the curve—even if readings on economic growth are underwhelming.<blockquote>从通胀和经济增长路径到货币政策预期和反应，这些动态如何变化，很大程度上取决于未来几个月劳动力的情况。如果随着对新冠疫情的担忧消退，数百万工人重新进入劳动力市场，面授学校缓解了父母的儿童保育困难，财政福利消退，短缺应该会消失，通货膨胀应该会放缓。如果故事还有更多，劳动力短缺更多的是结构性的而不是暂时性的，那么美联储已经落后于形势——即使经济增长数据并不令人印象深刻。</blockquote> All that is to say nothing of the trillions in federal spending still under debate by Democrats in Washington. Roughly $3 trillion in spending between two bills, one covering infrastructure and the other social spending, won’t have the impact of aid packages authorized since the start of the pandemic, says Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. Child-care tax credits, the guts of the larger reconciliation bill, might help more people afford daycare and join the labor force. It’s also possible the monthly payments of up to $360 a month per child make the labor problem worse, Shapiro says.<blockquote>更不用说华盛顿民主党人仍在争论的数万亿联邦支出了。MFR首席美国经济学家乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro)表示，两项法案（一项涵盖基础设施，另一项涵盖社会支出）之间约3万亿美元的支出不会产生自大流行开始以来授权的援助计划的影响。儿童保育税收抵免是更大的和解法案的核心，可能会帮助更多的人负担得起日托费用并加入劳动力队伍。夏皮罗说，每个孩子每月高达360美元的付款也有可能使劳动力问题变得更糟。</blockquote> For the Fed, it adds up to an intensifying quagmire. This week’s monetary policy statement, Powell’s press conference and October jobs report will together give investors the best reading yet on how the chips may fall.<blockquote>对于美联储来说，这加剧了泥潭。本周的货币政策声明、鲍威尔的新闻发布会和10月份的就业报告将共同为投资者提供迄今为止关于筹码可能如何下跌的最佳解读。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-in-a-jam-and-thats-bad-news-for-investors-51635839198?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-in-a-jam-and-thats-bad-news-for-investors-51635839198?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103264638","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is in a jam.\nOfficials at the U.S. central bank are about to begin withdrawing emergency monetary support launched in response to the pandemic. Economists across Wall Street say the Fed will on Wednesday announce a $15 billion reduction in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases that will go into effect this month. Tapering at that pace means completion of the program by July 2022.\nThat’s all baked into investor expectations. What isn’t necessarily is that the Fed may have no choice but to become more hawkish at a time when U.S. economic growth is already slowing. Adding insult to injury is uncertainty around fiscal spending and taxes to pay for new programs.\nThe biggest question this week is whether the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, will keep its “transitory” language with respect to inflation, says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska. In the face of inflation that is proving much hotter and more persistent than central bankers and economists have predicted, Fed Chairman Jay Powell has remained pretty steadfast in his view that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and therefore temporary. Markowska says the Fed will probably stick with the “transitory” script because not doing so could rattle investors and unhinge the rate-sensitive front-end of the yield curve.\nBut the inflation-is-transitory case is getting harder to make. Consider the Employment Cost Index released on Friday, which economists say is the preferred wage gauge given that it is a less-volatile quarterly measure that includes full compensation costs. The much bigger-than-expected surge in the third quarter ECI marked the fastest pace of increase since the inception of the series 39 years ago. Labor costs tend to be companies’ biggest expense by far, and such costs are rising quickly as millions remain out of the labor market and employers raise pay to fill a record amount of open positions.\nThe acute labor shortage is the root of the everything-shortage. When the Labor Department releases its October employment situation report on Friday, economists expect to see hiring that is still lackluster and wages that are rising faster as millions of workers remain on the sidelines for myriad reasons. If labor-force participation is structurally lower than policy makers believe, it means the U.S. economy is much closer to full employment than they think and inflation has nowhere to go but higher.\nAgainst that backdrop, some economists say the Fed is likely to drop its “transitory” inflation language this week. What’s more, says Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk, “Powell said that the Fed could accelerate the tapering process if necessary to get to liftoff sooner; that is looking more probable.”\nAlready, investors are betting that the Fed will raise rates sooner than the central bank has communicated. Economists at Goldman Sachs last week pulled forward their liftoff forecast by a full year, to July 2022, just after tapering should conclude, citing higher inflation forecasts. “We now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3%—and core CPI inflation above 4%—when the taper concludes,” they say, referring respectively to the Personal Consumption Expenditure index and Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. The former is the Fed’s favored inflation metric; historically, the central bank has sought to anchor inflation at 2%. Goldman predicts a second rate increase in November 2022 and then one every six months after that.\nMarkowska at Jefferies says Powell is likely to push back on rising expectations for an early liftoff, but he will have to walk a very fine line. Pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations, with increased doubt among investors and consumers that the Fed will sufficiently address inflation only reinforcing pricing pressures. At the same time, not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve, Markowska says, meaning inventors could start to price in earlier and more aggressive tightening.\nMany observers have argued that monetary policy can’t affect supply shortages that are largely behind economywide price surges. That’s only partly true. After all, consumers are sitting on trillions of savings—a cushion that amounts to about 10% of gross domestic product—and robust demand alongside supply shortfalls has exacerbated shortages to propel inflation higher. Monetary policy is meant to affect demand, and a slowdown in this environment would in theory allow supply chains to thaw and businesses a chance to replenish inventories, in turn cooling pricing pressures.\nThe problem is that demand is already falling. Last week’s third-quarter GDP report reflected the slowest rate of growth since the recovery from pandemic-driven shutdowns began, as consumers pulled back, federal government spending fell, exports fell and business spending on fixed investments declined. Rising prices are one factor behind slowing consumption; it is conceivable, then, that if tighter monetary policy further slows demand and prices in turn cool, demand is reignited.\nIt is also possible that a recession happens along the way. As Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics puts it: ”Respectable arguments can still be made that the surge in inflation in both prices and wages will not persist indefinitely, but the danger is that the Fed could be pushed into taking action as insurance against these arguments being wrong.”\nHow these dynamics shake out, from the path of inflation and economic growth to monetary policy expectations and responses, depend largely on what happens with the workforce in the coming months. If millions of workers re-enter the labor force as Covid fears recede, in-person school relieves parents’ child-care struggles and fiscal benefits recede, shortages should dissipate and inflation should slow. If there is more to the story and the labor shortage is more structural than transitory, the Fed is already behind the curve—even if readings on economic growth are underwhelming.\nAll that is to say nothing of the trillions in federal spending still under debate by Democrats in Washington. Roughly $3 trillion in spending between two bills, one covering infrastructure and the other social spending, won’t have the impact of aid packages authorized since the start of the pandemic, says Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. Child-care tax credits, the guts of the larger reconciliation bill, might help more people afford daycare and join the labor force. It’s also possible the monthly payments of up to $360 a month per child make the labor problem worse, Shapiro says.\nFor the Fed, it adds up to an intensifying quagmire. This week’s monetary policy statement, Powell’s press conference and October jobs report will together give investors the best reading yet on how the chips may fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2239,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}