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2021-11-03

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Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>

Summary In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR s

Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":841708664,"tweetId":"841708664","gmtCreate":1635940083410,"gmtModify":1635940083537,"author":{"id":3575813982420697,"idStr":"3575813982420697","authorId":3575813982420697,"authorIdStr":"3575813982420697","name":"coolstuff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59416cd904d3254185c947646f5920b9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok.. then?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok.. then?</body></html>","text":"ok.. then?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841708664","repostId":1122423591,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122423591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635939195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122423591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122423591","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIn this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR s","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.</li> <li>Even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.</li> <li>PLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.</li> <li>The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.</li> <li>Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88fe7a9cdcd414bb8031885b7829cc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Drew Angerer/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>在本文中，我推测在购买PLTR股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。</li><li>即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长似乎在财务上并不健康——遵循40法则。</li><li>PLTR的商业模型表明，我们可以通过SOTP对公司进行估值，但即使我们将收入增长率纳入模型中，该股票也被严重高估。</li><li>卡普和他的团队的行为表明Palantir是一棵“摇钱树”。多头总是购买管理层系统地在市场上抛售的任何东西。</li><li>最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——所以我不建议购买该股票，只要它是按照现在的管理方式管理的。</li></ul>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Palantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)的10季度报告即将发布，多头因预期强劲的季度业绩而冻结，这最终将使该股摆脱持平的价格通道并上涨。我毫不怀疑结果会非常强劲——该公司擅长签署新合同并快速增长收入。我认为第三季度收入增长将超过30%，这是卡普承诺/目标。</blockquote> For most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.<blockquote>然而，对于大多数长期投资者来说，更重要的是不仅要关注短期催化剂，还要关注公司商业模式的质量。该股票相当昂贵，如果您今天花费30倍于销售额的资金购买一家不盈利的公司，您需要确保自己的行为是明智的。</blockquote> In this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).<blockquote>在本文中，我将推测在购买PLTR股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。我会通过陈述我的观点和参考其他来源来回答这些问题，你可以自己回答（或者在评论中给大家看）。</blockquote> Question #1: What kind of company is Palantir?<blockquote>问题1：Palantir是一家什么样的公司？</blockquote> Let us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:<blockquote>让我们以一种非常实事求是的方式来回答这个问题，而不是不必要的哗众取宠（正如一些多头在我的第一篇文章下的评论中所做的那样）。Palantir成立于2003年（距今已有18年），是一家数据分析、数据咨询和软件公司，主要为美国国防部各部门工作。以下是排名前10的部门和签约机构的列表：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a0e8a0f6d34762a14026cc90dedd60\" tg-width=\"260\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FPDS.gov<blockquote>资料来源：FPDS.gov</blockquote> But beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth&nbsp;of 9.35%&nbsp;(CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in&nbsp;his recent article&nbsp;on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.<blockquote>但除了为军队服务之外，该公司还试图将其服务商业化——以开拓更广泛的市场，认识到GovTech预计未来几年9.35%(CAGR)的增长不足以证明承诺的30%销售增长是合理的。正如Steven Fiorillo在他最近关于PLTR的文章中正确指出的那样，“亚马逊和IBM的合作关系才刚刚开始。”就我个人而言，我并不怀疑Palantir将在商业方面实现增长——唯一的问题是它将以多高的质量和速度实现这一目标。</blockquote> Even though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:<blockquote>尽管该公司已有18年历史，但看涨者通过表示PLTR需要像初创公司一样尽可能扩大市场来证明不断增加的股权赤字是合理的。好吧，就这样吧。那么让我们用风险资本家的语言来说：</blockquote> If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow? Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing. The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation. The rule simple formula is: Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth. Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability. Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door Since Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.<blockquote>如果你想让你的营收翻倍，你需要在你的基础设施上投资两倍。所以今天，你的开支会翻倍，但你的收入可能在接下来的24个月里不会增加。现在你要承担成长的代价。诀窍是平衡两者。你如何投资盈利并持续增长？嗯，风险资本家有一个简单而一致的方法来追逐增长。40法则。以下是你可以做同样的事情的方法。40法则提供了企业健康状况的高层次视图。简而言之，如果你的增长率和利润率加在一起至少为40%，那么你的企业就非常健康，估值可能会翻倍。规则简单的公式是：40比率规则=增长率+利润你可以用不同的方法来衡量增长，但最简单的方法可能是对MRR（每月经常性收入）增长进行同比（同比）。大多数企业在需要资金的早期阶段都会遵循这一规则。当你开始扩大规模并实现持续的盈利能力时，这就变得不那么重要了。资料来源：Quora，Vijar Kohli，Golden Door金融家由于Palantir尚未达到“持续盈利”，我们需要将其视为早期/中期初创公司——在这种情况下，40法则是我们可以做的最好的事情来评估其业务增长的质量。Palantir成为一家上市公司已经一年多了，因此我将“增长率”衡量为季度间(QoQ)销售增长，“收入”衡量为同期净利润率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d7d3b91d2cc6ac034dc94bc390e0b\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation<blockquote>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</blockquote> Even in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).<blockquote>即使就快速增长的初创公司的关键增长指标之一而言，Palantir在财务健康方面也相当薄弱。这就是为什么该公司总是觉得需要额外的资金，而这些资金是以牺牲你们这些多头为代价的（稍后会详细介绍）。</blockquote> Yes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.<blockquote>是的，很明显，这一指标在两年内（从2019年6月开始）减半，但在大流行的急性阶段之后，净利润率似乎已经回到了舒适的负值区域，并且很可能会保持在同一水平当我们看第三季度的业绩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0097c424d4f91fa0ef40a8f5b1bcf056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation<blockquote>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</blockquote> This should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?<blockquote>这应该会让那些认为Palantir是一家初创公司（尽管它已经很老了）的人停下来思考。然而，我建议回到主要问题的讨论——Palantir是一家什么样的公司。是IT防御咨询公司、数据分析公司，还是两者兼而有之？</blockquote> You probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:<blockquote>您可能回答说这是两者的结合——这是合乎逻辑的，因为它是根据上一个季度报告和收入细目得出的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f40ac70349713588cf57b42d186d0a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations<blockquote>资料来源：PLTR第二季度报告，作者计算</blockquote> Then we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.<blockquote>然后我们知道如何评估公司的价值——通过其收入的增长和结构。部分总和(SOTP)估值模型非常适合这里——在这种情况下，Palantir有很多同行可供比较。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e7eb7c3722f225847d1dffb622a9056\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a00b9027b66ce5b96383dc4329b50a7\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dac7bf41404ba48620350f74ef3113b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)<blockquote>来源：作者计算（基于SA的数据）</blockquote> Of course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of &gt;30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.<blockquote>当然，SOTP结果被证明过于保守，主要是因为一些同行处于完全不同的业务发展阶段（尤其是在“政府”领域）。然而，这让我们了解了该公司的估值有多高——即使承诺长期增长超过30%，目前的市盈率也太高了。该公司的估值就好像它肯定会在“商业”领域实现自己一样——尽管很明显，它在这一领域的增长方面有人可以与之匹敌。</blockquote> What is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.<blockquote>我从上面得到的初步结论是什么？我对提出的问题回答如下：Palantir是一家快速增长的公司，但盈亏平衡的前景模糊（就净利润而言）——即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长也不会带来任何好处因为它是非定性的。该公司的商业模式表明，它可以通过SOTP进行估值——但即使我们将收入增长率纳入估值模型，该股票也被严重高估——这两个细分市场之间没有协同作用，也没有“低等级”收入的持续增长可以证明这一点。</blockquote> Question #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?<blockquote>问题2：卡普先生和其他人应该得到多少？</blockquote> According to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:<blockquote>据彭博社报道，亚历山大·卡普(Alexander Karp)跻身2020年薪酬最高的10名首席执行官和高管之列：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00972645978c0a77683a6c288537d102\" tg-width=\"334\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg.com<blockquote>资料来源：Bloomberg.com</blockquote> I suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.<blockquote>我建议我们看看这些公司在过去12个月中的“定性”增长情况（TTM或2021年与2020年）。由于样本中的个别代表是无利可图的（就像Palantir本身一样），我将使用与上面分析中相同的指标——40法则。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627baf8461a22f238c8071fed1982110\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社和SA的数据，作者的计算</blockquote> Author's note:Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.<blockquote>作者注：销售增长率是根据最新的季度数据计算的。但即使PLTR第三季度销售额同比增长40-45%，该公司在这一特定指标方面仍将是局外人。</blockquote> Do not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?<blockquote>不要误解我的意思——我不反对一家公司的首席执行官/创始人赚很多钱——这是公司存在的理由。但我反对不断以牺牲股东为代价来做这件事——他们已经为你的公司付钱了，如果他们支付的东西不会很快盈利，为什么还要让他们支付更多呢？</blockquote> Yes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.<blockquote>是的，卡普没有收到工资，但他会立即出售他收到的所有东西，将他的期权分成不同的部分出售，以获得最有利的平均售价。老实说，我不明白目前的薪酬政策。在我看来，首席执行官，公司的创始人，应该竭尽全力让他的公司达到顶峰——我今天所能看到的只是公司成立18年来不断的稀释和缺乏盈利能力。</blockquote> But the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.<blockquote>但多头显然不在乎——无论如何，我时不时会读到一些借口，解释为什么卡普每年赚近3.7亿美元，而净利润率超过95%（收入），只是从它的。</blockquote> Without straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.<blockquote>在不离题太远的情况下，我建议调查一下卡普在市场上卖出期权的数量和频率。我从SEC官方的“Forms 4”中收集了这些数据，并试图将其可视化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8cdeece714c7ccfd9c5fb48e1bd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations &amp; visuals<blockquote>资料来源：数据来自Openinsider.com、作者的计算和视觉效果</blockquote> As we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer&nbsp;(CFO and Treasurer) and&nbsp;Ryan D. Taylor&nbsp;(Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，卡普在IPO和股价上涨后的某个时候放缓了脚步。大跌的时候（2021年3月），他卖得更少了。此后，价格一直徘徊在每股26美元至23美元之间。在这段时间里，卡普一直在定期出售，而且数量几乎与他从市场上获得的价格相同——否则，期权就会到期。这是有道理的，但为什么有这么多选择（比2020年11月到2021年3月还要多）？现在的销售量与我们在2020年10月看到的大致相同——当时平均实现价格为9.41美元/股——比当前价格低63.64%，这大约是我们在计算SOTP时看到的“公平价格”。有趣的是，David A.Glazer（首席财务官兼财务主管）和Ryan D.Taylor（首席法律和商业事务官）也系统性地出售了股票，而且当时股票的价值明显低于现在。Palantir的总裁兼秘书斯蒂芬·安德鲁·科恩(Stephen Andrew Cohen)每次都会出售他得到的任何东西。</blockquote> Many bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.<blockquote>许多看涨者希望，一旦SBC能够通过经营活动弥补成本，该公司就会停产。但具体什么时候会发生，没有人能说。而且这些迹象并不表明这会很快发生。在此之前，请享受稀释和价格很可能在11月11日报告发布后几天回到平坦通道。</blockquote> Question #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?<blockquote>问题3：在可预见的未来，竞争真的会很激烈吗？</blockquote> Yes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).<blockquote>是的，它是。我们必须认识到，公司不会长期仅靠预算资金发展——因此业务的商业化是不可避免的。那么Palantir将面临（已经面临）一场争夺阳光下一席之地的激烈战斗。即使从公司在“商业”领域的收入增长来看，竞争压力也很明显——尽管整个公司的估值是EV/收入(TTM)的36倍，但仅增长了28%。</blockquote> In my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.<blockquote>在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我谈到了该公司想要将其产品推向更广阔的市场时所面临的困难。我不认为即使与AWS合作也会显着改变事情——该公司正在帮助建立的ETL流程不是除了PLTR之外任何人都能做到的创新。</blockquote> If Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called&nbsp;BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>如果Palantir的目标是数据咨询，那么一个合乎逻辑的问题就会出现：“当有一些知名咨询公司（三巨头）的业务经验会对我有更多帮助时，我为什么要付钱给一家科技公司来解决我公司的问题呢？”（例如，BCG有一个单独的部门，专门负责分析数据并在生产中运行各种机器/统计学习模型——这个部门被称为BCG Gamma）。我相信在可预见的未来，定制化将是Palantir的一个主要痛点。</blockquote> It seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:<blockquote>看来竞争加上股权不断稀释的影响不仅仅是我担心——对冲基金对公司的信心也开始减弱：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d13784c0d5193f12f723dd56b01086\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Yahoo Finance<blockquote>资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> The company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.<blockquote>公司季报在即，不少人对其寄予厚望。我并不是说这份报告会很弱——如果你是多头，你会在其中找到首先让你兴奋的东西——良好的收入增长，也许40-45%，谁知道呢。这无疑可能会在一段时间内推动价格上涨，并使该股脱离目前的持平价格通道。</blockquote> However, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.<blockquote>然而，这不会改变整个画面。多头说空头在抱怨同样的事情（SBC、竞争等。）——是的，但对于所有问题，空头要么收到关于公司将如何改变世界（由于创新，这根本不存在）的情绪爆发，要么收到天真的想法，因为单独采取的问题可以自行解决。</blockquote> At the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).<blockquote>目前，空头的位置离我更近。我不是在质疑该公司的产品——是的，它可能真的很好。但它并不比市场上已经有的好多少（特别是在“商业”领域）。在我看来，管理层在使公司盈利和阻止股东稀释方面做得不够——这对任何长期投资者来说都是最重要的警告信号。卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir是一棵“摇钱树”——更具体地说，是它的股东，他们不知疲倦地用“超过30%的长期增长”的承诺来证明所发生的一切是合理的（即使是庞大的IT巨头与Palantir相比，收入增长要大得多）。</blockquote> In the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".<blockquote>短期内，在合理的盈利预测的支持下，该股可能会强劲上涨。然而，最近的内幕交易表明，净利润率（或者更准确地说，亏损）不会显着改善——同样，收入增长也不会有任何好处。这种扩张战略存在严重风险——如果公司在某个时候步履蹒跚，考虑到股东已经忍受“价值侵蚀”的时间，市场不会原谅它。</blockquote> In the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).<blockquote>从长远来看，我相信，除非SBC停止，否则该股将保持持平状态，正如我在之前与其他“前景看好”的科技公司的文章中所展示的那样。最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——至少，你需要等待管理层采取明确行动才能使公司实现盈利（在存在18年之后，现在是时候了）。</blockquote> You may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.<blockquote>当然，你可能会有不同的想法。如果我的任务是扩大我的受众，我只会写关于PLTR的好东西，因为即使在Seeking Alpha用户中，大多数人也只期待公司带来积极的东西（因此，他们在不同的文章中寻找对他们信念的确认）。然而，鉴于公司周围发生的一切，我决定定期提醒您购买PLTR时所承担的风险。在我看来，观点的多样性和对所有风险的认识是股市理性投资决策的关键。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-03 19:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>In this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.</li> <li>Even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.</li> <li>PLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.</li> <li>The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.</li> <li>Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88fe7a9cdcd414bb8031885b7829cc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Drew Angerer/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>在本文中，我推测在购买PLTR股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。</li><li>即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长似乎在财务上并不健康——遵循40法则。</li><li>PLTR的商业模型表明，我们可以通过SOTP对公司进行估值，但即使我们将收入增长率纳入模型中，该股票也被严重高估。</li><li>卡普和他的团队的行为表明Palantir是一棵“摇钱树”。多头总是购买管理层系统地在市场上抛售的任何东西。</li><li>最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——所以我不建议购买该股票，只要它是按照现在的管理方式管理的。</li></ul>德鲁·安格雷尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Palantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)的10季度报告即将发布，多头因预期强劲的季度业绩而冻结，这最终将使该股摆脱持平的价格通道并上涨。我毫不怀疑结果会非常强劲——该公司擅长签署新合同并快速增长收入。我认为第三季度收入增长将超过30%，这是卡普承诺/目标。</blockquote> For most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.<blockquote>然而，对于大多数长期投资者来说，更重要的是不仅要关注短期催化剂，还要关注公司商业模式的质量。该股票相当昂贵，如果您今天花费30倍于销售额的资金购买一家不盈利的公司，您需要确保自己的行为是明智的。</blockquote> In this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).<blockquote>在本文中，我将推测在购买PLTR股票之前您应该问自己哪些问题。我会通过陈述我的观点和参考其他来源来回答这些问题，你可以自己回答（或者在评论中给大家看）。</blockquote> Question #1: What kind of company is Palantir?<blockquote>问题1：Palantir是一家什么样的公司？</blockquote> Let us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:<blockquote>让我们以一种非常实事求是的方式来回答这个问题，而不是不必要的哗众取宠（正如一些多头在我的第一篇文章下的评论中所做的那样）。Palantir成立于2003年（距今已有18年），是一家数据分析、数据咨询和软件公司，主要为美国国防部各部门工作。以下是排名前10的部门和签约机构的列表：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a0e8a0f6d34762a14026cc90dedd60\" tg-width=\"260\" tg-height=\"287\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FPDS.gov<blockquote>资料来源：FPDS.gov</blockquote> But beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth&nbsp;of 9.35%&nbsp;(CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in&nbsp;his recent article&nbsp;on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.<blockquote>但除了为军队服务之外，该公司还试图将其服务商业化——以开拓更广泛的市场，认识到GovTech预计未来几年9.35%(CAGR)的增长不足以证明承诺的30%销售增长是合理的。正如Steven Fiorillo在他最近关于PLTR的文章中正确指出的那样，“亚马逊和IBM的合作关系才刚刚开始。”就我个人而言，我并不怀疑Palantir将在商业方面实现增长——唯一的问题是它将以多高的质量和速度实现这一目标。</blockquote> Even though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:<blockquote>尽管该公司已有18年历史，但看涨者通过表示PLTR需要像初创公司一样尽可能扩大市场来证明不断增加的股权赤字是合理的。好吧，就这样吧。那么让我们用风险资本家的语言来说：</blockquote> If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow? Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing. The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation. The rule simple formula is: Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth. Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability. Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door Since Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.<blockquote>如果你想让你的营收翻倍，你需要在你的基础设施上投资两倍。所以今天，你的开支会翻倍，但你的收入可能在接下来的24个月里不会增加。现在你要承担成长的代价。诀窍是平衡两者。你如何投资盈利并持续增长？嗯，风险资本家有一个简单而一致的方法来追逐增长。40法则。以下是你可以做同样的事情的方法。40法则提供了企业健康状况的高层次视图。简而言之，如果你的增长率和利润率加在一起至少为40%，那么你的企业就非常健康，估值可能会翻倍。规则简单的公式是：40比率规则=增长率+利润你可以用不同的方法来衡量增长，但最简单的方法可能是对MRR（每月经常性收入）增长进行同比（同比）。大多数企业在需要资金的早期阶段都会遵循这一规则。当你开始扩大规模并实现持续的盈利能力时，这就变得不那么重要了。资料来源：Quora，Vijar Kohli，Golden Door金融家由于Palantir尚未达到“持续盈利”，我们需要将其视为早期/中期初创公司——在这种情况下，40法则是我们可以做的最好的事情来评估其业务增长的质量。Palantir成为一家上市公司已经一年多了，因此我将“增长率”衡量为季度间(QoQ)销售增长，“收入”衡量为同期净利润率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/554d7d3b91d2cc6ac034dc94bc390e0b\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation<blockquote>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</blockquote> Even in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).<blockquote>即使就快速增长的初创公司的关键增长指标之一而言，Palantir在财务健康方面也相当薄弱。这就是为什么该公司总是觉得需要额外的资金，而这些资金是以牺牲你们这些多头为代价的（稍后会详细介绍）。</blockquote> Yes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.<blockquote>是的，很明显，这一指标在两年内（从2019年6月开始）减半，但在大流行的急性阶段之后，净利润率似乎已经回到了舒适的负值区域，并且很可能会保持在同一水平当我们看第三季度的业绩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0097c424d4f91fa0ef40a8f5b1bcf056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation<blockquote>资料来源：Seeking Alpha的数据，作者计算</blockquote> This should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?<blockquote>这应该会让那些认为Palantir是一家初创公司（尽管它已经很老了）的人停下来思考。然而，我建议回到主要问题的讨论——Palantir是一家什么样的公司。是IT防御咨询公司、数据分析公司，还是两者兼而有之？</blockquote> You probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:<blockquote>您可能回答说这是两者的结合——这是合乎逻辑的，因为它是根据上一个季度报告和收入细目得出的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f40ac70349713588cf57b42d186d0a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"102\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations<blockquote>资料来源：PLTR第二季度报告，作者计算</blockquote> Then we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.<blockquote>然后我们知道如何评估公司的价值——通过其收入的增长和结构。部分总和(SOTP)估值模型非常适合这里——在这种情况下，Palantir有很多同行可供比较。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e7eb7c3722f225847d1dffb622a9056\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a00b9027b66ce5b96383dc4329b50a7\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dac7bf41404ba48620350f74ef3113b\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"494\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)<blockquote>来源：作者计算（基于SA的数据）</blockquote> Of course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of &gt;30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.<blockquote>当然，SOTP结果被证明过于保守，主要是因为一些同行处于完全不同的业务发展阶段（尤其是在“政府”领域）。然而，这让我们了解了该公司的估值有多高——即使承诺长期增长超过30%，目前的市盈率也太高了。该公司的估值就好像它肯定会在“商业”领域实现自己一样——尽管很明显，它在这一领域的增长方面有人可以与之匹敌。</blockquote> What is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.<blockquote>我从上面得到的初步结论是什么？我对提出的问题回答如下：Palantir是一家快速增长的公司，但盈亏平衡的前景模糊（就净利润而言）——即使我们将该公司视为一家科技初创公司，其收入增长也不会带来任何好处因为它是非定性的。该公司的商业模式表明，它可以通过SOTP进行估值——但即使我们将收入增长率纳入估值模型，该股票也被严重高估——这两个细分市场之间没有协同作用，也没有“低等级”收入的持续增长可以证明这一点。</blockquote> Question #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?<blockquote>问题2：卡普先生和其他人应该得到多少？</blockquote> According to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:<blockquote>据彭博社报道，亚历山大·卡普(Alexander Karp)跻身2020年薪酬最高的10名首席执行官和高管之列：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00972645978c0a77683a6c288537d102\" tg-width=\"334\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg.com<blockquote>资料来源：Bloomberg.com</blockquote> I suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.<blockquote>我建议我们看看这些公司在过去12个月中的“定性”增长情况（TTM或2021年与2020年）。由于样本中的个别代表是无利可图的（就像Palantir本身一样），我将使用与上面分析中相同的指标——40法则。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627baf8461a22f238c8071fed1982110\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations<blockquote>资料来源：彭博社和SA的数据，作者的计算</blockquote> Author's note:Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.<blockquote>作者注：销售增长率是根据最新的季度数据计算的。但即使PLTR第三季度销售额同比增长40-45%，该公司在这一特定指标方面仍将是局外人。</blockquote> Do not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?<blockquote>不要误解我的意思——我不反对一家公司的首席执行官/创始人赚很多钱——这是公司存在的理由。但我反对不断以牺牲股东为代价来做这件事——他们已经为你的公司付钱了，如果他们支付的东西不会很快盈利，为什么还要让他们支付更多呢？</blockquote> Yes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.<blockquote>是的，卡普没有收到工资，但他会立即出售他收到的所有东西，将他的期权分成不同的部分出售，以获得最有利的平均售价。老实说，我不明白目前的薪酬政策。在我看来，首席执行官，公司的创始人，应该竭尽全力让他的公司达到顶峰——我今天所能看到的只是公司成立18年来不断的稀释和缺乏盈利能力。</blockquote> But the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.<blockquote>但多头显然不在乎——无论如何，我时不时会读到一些借口，解释为什么卡普每年赚近3.7亿美元，而净利润率超过95%（收入），只是从它的。</blockquote> Without straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.<blockquote>在不离题太远的情况下，我建议调查一下卡普在市场上卖出期权的数量和频率。我从SEC官方的“Forms 4”中收集了这些数据，并试图将其可视化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e8cdeece714c7ccfd9c5fb48e1bd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations &amp; visuals<blockquote>资料来源：数据来自Openinsider.com、作者的计算和视觉效果</blockquote> As we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer&nbsp;(CFO and Treasurer) and&nbsp;Ryan D. Taylor&nbsp;(Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，卡普在IPO和股价上涨后的某个时候放缓了脚步。大跌的时候（2021年3月），他卖得更少了。此后，价格一直徘徊在每股26美元至23美元之间。在这段时间里，卡普一直在定期出售，而且数量几乎与他从市场上获得的价格相同——否则，期权就会到期。这是有道理的，但为什么有这么多选择（比2020年11月到2021年3月还要多）？现在的销售量与我们在2020年10月看到的大致相同——当时平均实现价格为9.41美元/股——比当前价格低63.64%，这大约是我们在计算SOTP时看到的“公平价格”。有趣的是，David A.Glazer（首席财务官兼财务主管）和Ryan D.Taylor（首席法律和商业事务官）也系统性地出售了股票，而且当时股票的价值明显低于现在。Palantir的总裁兼秘书斯蒂芬·安德鲁·科恩(Stephen Andrew Cohen)每次都会出售他得到的任何东西。</blockquote> Many bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.<blockquote>许多看涨者希望，一旦SBC能够通过经营活动弥补成本，该公司就会停产。但具体什么时候会发生，没有人能说。而且这些迹象并不表明这会很快发生。在此之前，请享受稀释和价格很可能在11月11日报告发布后几天回到平坦通道。</blockquote> Question #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?<blockquote>问题3：在可预见的未来，竞争真的会很激烈吗？</blockquote> Yes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).<blockquote>是的，它是。我们必须认识到，公司不会长期仅靠预算资金发展——因此业务的商业化是不可避免的。那么Palantir将面临（已经面临）一场争夺阳光下一席之地的激烈战斗。即使从公司在“商业”领域的收入增长来看，竞争压力也很明显——尽管整个公司的估值是EV/收入(TTM)的36倍，但仅增长了28%。</blockquote> In my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.<blockquote>在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我谈到了该公司想要将其产品推向更广阔的市场时所面临的困难。我不认为即使与AWS合作也会显着改变事情——该公司正在帮助建立的ETL流程不是除了PLTR之外任何人都能做到的创新。</blockquote> If Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called&nbsp;BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.<blockquote>如果Palantir的目标是数据咨询，那么一个合乎逻辑的问题就会出现：“当有一些知名咨询公司（三巨头）的业务经验会对我有更多帮助时，我为什么要付钱给一家科技公司来解决我公司的问题呢？”（例如，BCG有一个单独的部门，专门负责分析数据并在生产中运行各种机器/统计学习模型——这个部门被称为BCG Gamma）。我相信在可预见的未来，定制化将是Palantir的一个主要痛点。</blockquote> It seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:<blockquote>看来竞争加上股权不断稀释的影响不仅仅是我担心——对冲基金对公司的信心也开始减弱：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d13784c0d5193f12f723dd56b01086\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Yahoo Finance<blockquote>资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote> Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> The company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.<blockquote>公司季报在即，不少人对其寄予厚望。我并不是说这份报告会很弱——如果你是多头，你会在其中找到首先让你兴奋的东西——良好的收入增长，也许40-45%，谁知道呢。这无疑可能会在一段时间内推动价格上涨，并使该股脱离目前的持平价格通道。</blockquote> However, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.<blockquote>然而，这不会改变整个画面。多头说空头在抱怨同样的事情（SBC、竞争等。）——是的，但对于所有问题，空头要么收到关于公司将如何改变世界（由于创新，这根本不存在）的情绪爆发，要么收到天真的想法，因为单独采取的问题可以自行解决。</blockquote> At the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).<blockquote>目前，空头的位置离我更近。我不是在质疑该公司的产品——是的，它可能真的很好。但它并不比市场上已经有的好多少（特别是在“商业”领域）。在我看来，管理层在使公司盈利和阻止股东稀释方面做得不够——这对任何长期投资者来说都是最重要的警告信号。卡普和他的团队的行为表明，Palantir是一棵“摇钱树”——更具体地说，是它的股东，他们不知疲倦地用“超过30%的长期增长”的承诺来证明所发生的一切是合理的（即使是庞大的IT巨头与Palantir相比，收入增长要大得多）。</blockquote> In the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".<blockquote>短期内，在合理的盈利预测的支持下，该股可能会强劲上涨。然而，最近的内幕交易表明，净利润率（或者更准确地说，亏损）不会显着改善——同样，收入增长也不会有任何好处。这种扩张战略存在严重风险——如果公司在某个时候步履蹒跚，考虑到股东已经忍受“价值侵蚀”的时间，市场不会原谅它。</blockquote> In the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).<blockquote>从长远来看，我相信，除非SBC停止，否则该股将保持持平状态，正如我在之前与其他“前景看好”的科技公司的文章中所展示的那样。最终，风险/回报比并不站在长期投资者一边——至少，你需要等待管理层采取明确行动才能使公司实现盈利（在存在18年之后，现在是时候了）。</blockquote> You may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.<blockquote>当然，你可能会有不同的想法。如果我的任务是扩大我的受众，我只会写关于PLTR的好东西，因为即使在Seeking Alpha用户中，大多数人也只期待公司带来积极的东西（因此，他们在不同的文章中寻找对他们信念的确认）。然而，鉴于公司周围发生的一切，我决定定期提醒您购买PLTR时所承担的风险。在我看来，观点的多样性和对所有风险的认识是股市理性投资决策的关键。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464304-palantir-stock-risk-reward-is-not-in-your-favor-for-the-long-run\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464304-palantir-stock-risk-reward-is-not-in-your-favor-for-the-long-run","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122423591","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn this article, I speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock.\nEven if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not seem to be financially healthy - follow the Rule of 40.\nPLTR's business model says we can value the company by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in our model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued.\nThe behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\". And bulls always buy whatever management systematically dumps in the market.\nUltimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - so I would not recommend buying the stock as long as it is managed the way it is managed now.\n\nDrew Angerer/Getty Images News\nIntroduction\nPalantir's (PLTR) 10-Q report is just around the corner and the bulls are frozen in anticipation of strong quarterly results that will finally allow the stock to come off the flat price channel and rise. I do not doubt that the results will be really strong - the company is good at inking new contracts and growing revenue at a rapid pace. I think Q3 revenue growth will be more than 30%, which is what Karp is promising/targeting.\nFor most long-term investors, however, it would be more important to look not just at short-term catalysts, but at the quality of the company's business model. The stock is quite expensive, and you need to be sure you are acting wisely if you are spending 30 times sales on an unprofitable company today.\nIn this article, I will speculate on what questions you should ask yourself before buying PLTR stock. I'll answer these questions by stating my opinion and referencing other sources, and you can answer them yourself (or in the comments for everyone to see).\nQuestion #1: What kind of company is Palantir?\nLet us approach the answer to this question in a very matter-of-fact way, without unnecessary grandstanding (as some bulls have done in the comments under my first article). Palantir was founded in 2003 (that's 18 years ago) and is a data analytics, data consulting, and software company that works primarily for various U.S. defense departments. Here is a list of the top 10 departments and contracting agencies:\nSource: FPDS.gov\nBut beyond serving the army, the company is trying to commercialize its services - to tap a wider market, recognizing that GovTech's projected growth of 9.35% (CAGR) over the next few years will not be enough to justify the promised 30% sales growth.As Steven Fiorillo correctly noted in his recent article on PLTR, \"the Amazon and IBM partnerships are just getting started.\" Personally, I do not doubt that Palantir will grow in its commercial side - the only question is how qualitatively and fast it's going to do it.\nEven though the company is 18 years old, the bulls justify the increasing equity deficit by saying that PLTR needs to act like a startup to expand the market as much as possible. Okay, so be it. Then let us speak in the language of venture capitalists:\n\n If you want to double your top line revenue, you need to invest twice as much in your infrastructure. So today, you’ll double your expenses but your revenue may not increase for another 24 months. Now you’re carrying the cost of growth. The trick is to balance the two. How do you invest profitability and continue to grow?\n\n\n Well, venture capitalists have a simple yet consistent way to chasing growth. The Rule of 40. Here’s how you can do the same thing.\n\n\n The Rule of 40 provides a high-level view of a business’ health. Put simply, if your percentages of growth rate and profit margin total at least 40 when added together, then your business is in great health and could double in valuation.\n\n\n The rule simple formula is:\n\n\n Rule of 40 Ratio = Growth rate + Profit\n\n\n You can measure growth in different ways but the easiest one is probably just do YoY (year-over-year) on MRR (monthly recurring revenue) growth.\n\n\n Most businesses will follow this rule in the early stages when they need funding. This becomes less important as you begin to scale and achieve consistent profitability.\n\n\n Source:Quora, Vijar Kohli, Financier at Golden Door\n\nSince Palantir is not yet reaching \"consistent profitability\", we need to look at it like an early/mid-stage startup - in which case the Rule of 40 is the best we can do to assess the quality of its business growth. Palantir has been a publicly-traded company for a little over a year, so I will measure the \"Growth rate\" as quarter-to-quarter (QoQ) sales growth and the \"Income\" as net income margins over the same period.\nSource: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation\nEven in terms of one of the key growth metrics for a fast-growing startup, Palantir is pretty weak in terms of financial health. That's why the company always feels the need for additional funding, which it gets at the expense of you, bulls (more on that later).\nYes, it is obvious that this metric has halved in 2 years (from June 2019), but the net profit margin seemed to have returned to its comfortable negative zone after the acute phase of the pandemic and will most likely remain in the same place when we look at the Q3 results.\nSource: Seeking Alpha's data, author's calculation\nThis should give pause for thought to those who consider Palantir a startup (albeit so old). However, I propose to return to the discussion on the main question - what kind of company is Palantir. Is it an IT defense consulting company, a data analytics company, or a combination of both?\nYou probably replied that it was a combination of both - that is logical because it follows from the last quarterly report and revenue breakdown:\nSource: PLTR's 2Q report, author's calculations\nThen we know how to value the company - through the growth and structure of its revenue. The Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation model suits here perfectly - Palantir in this case has plenty of peers for comparison.\n\nSource: Author's calculation (based on SA's data)\nOf course, the SOTP results have proven to be overly conservative, primarily because some peers are at a completely different stage in their business development (particularly in the \"Government\" segment). However, this gives us an understanding of how overvalued the company is - even with the promised growth of >30% over the long term, the current multiples are too high. The company is valued as if it will definitely realize itself in the \"Commercial\" segment - even though it is obvious that it has someone to rival it in terms of growth in this segment.\nWhat is my preliminary conclusion from the above? I answer the question posed as follows: Palantir is a fast-growing company, but with vague prospects of breaking even (in terms of net earnings) - even if we think of the company as a technology startup, its revenue growth does not bring any value to shareholders since it's non-qualitative. The company's business model suggests that it can be valued by SOTP - but even if we include revenue growth rates in the valuation model, the stock turns out to be grossly overvalued - no synergy between the two segments or continuation of \"low-grade\" revenue growth can justify this.\nQuestion #2: How much do Mr. Karp and others deserve?\nAccording to Bloomberg, Alexander Karp was among the top-10 highest-paid CEOs and executives in 2020:\nSource: Bloomberg.com\nI suggest that we look at how \"qualitatively\" these companies have grown over the last 12 months (TTM or 2021 vs. 2020). Since individual representatives of the sample are unprofitable (like Palantir itself), I will use the same metric as in the analysis above - the Rule of 40.\nSource: Bloomberg's and SA's data, author's calculations\nAuthor's note:Sales growth rates are calculated based on the last quarterly data available. But even if PLTR shows 40-45% YoY sales growth in Q3, the company will be an outsider in terms of this particular metric.\nDo not get me wrong - I do not object to a CEO/founder of a company making a lot of money - that's the company's raison d'être. But I am against it constantly being done at the expense of the shareholders - they have already paid you money for your company, why make them pay even more if what they paid for is not going to be profitable anytime soon?\nYes, Karp does not receive a salary, but he instantly sells everything he receives, splitting up and selling his options in different tranches to get the most favorable average selling price.I honestly do not understand the current compensation policy. In my opinion, the CEO, the founder of the company, should be trying with all his might to bring his company to the top -all I can see today is the constant dilution and the lack of profitability over the 18 years of the company's existence.\nBut the bulls, apparently do not care - anyway, now and then I read the excuses as to why Karp makes nearly $370 million a year while the net profit margin is more than 95% (of revenues), only with minus sign in from of it.\nWithout straying too far off-topic, I propose to investigate how much and how often Karp sold his options off the market. I collected this data from the official SEC's \"Forms 4\" and tried to visualize it.\nSource: Data from Openinsider.com, author's calculations & visuals\nAs we can see, Karp slowed down sometime after the IPO and the stock price went up. When it fell sharply (March 2021), he sold even less. Since then, the price has hovered between $26 and $23 per share. Throughout this time, Karp has been selling regularly and in almost identical amounts to whatever price he gets from the market - otherwise, the options expire. That makes sense, but why are there so many options (more than from November 2020 to March 2021)? The volume of selling now is about the same as we saw in October 2020 - when the average realized price was $9.41/share - 63.64% below the current price, which is about the \"fair price\" we saw when calculating the SOTP.Interestingly,David A. Glazer (CFO and Treasurer) and Ryan D. Taylor (Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer) also sold systematically, and when the share was worth significantly lower than it is now. The President and Secretary of Palantir,Stephen Andrew Cohen, always sells whatever he gets - every single time.\nMany bulls hope that SBC will be discontinued once the company can cover its costs through operating activities. But exactly when that will happen, no one can say. And the signs do not suggest that it will happen soon. Until then, enjoy the dilution and the price that will most likely return to the flat channel a few days after the November 11 report release.\nQuestion #3: Is competition really going to be fierce in the foreseeable future?\nYes, it is. We must realize that the company will not long grow solely on budgetary money - hence the commercialization of the business is inevitable. Then Palantir will face (already faces) a fierce battle for a place in the sun. The competition's pressure is evident even from the growth of the company's revenue in the \"Commercial\" segment - an increase of just 28% although the whole company is valued at 36 times EV/revenue (TTM).\nIn my earlier articles on PLTR, I talked about the difficulties the company faces when it wants to bring its product to the broader market. I do not think even partnering with AWS will change things significantly - theETL processesthe company is helping to set up are not anything innovative that anyone but PLTR can do.\nIf Palantir is targeting data consulting, then a logical question arises: \"Why should I pay a tech company to solve my company's problem when there are some well-known consulting firms (the Big 3) whose business experience will help me more?\" (BCG, for example, has a separate division dedicated to analyzing data and running all kinds of machine/statistical learning models in production - this division is called BCG Gamma).I believe customization will be a major pain point for Palantir for the foreseeable future.\nIt seems that the effects of competition combined with the constant dilution of share ownership are not just worrying me - the hedge funds' faith in the company has also begun to wane:\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nBottom Line\nThe company's quarterly report is just around the corner, and many have high hopes for it. I am not saying the report will be weak - if you are a bull, you'll find in it what excites you first - good revenue growth, maybe 40-45%, who knows. That may undoubtedly drive prices up for a while and catapult the stock out of its current flat price channel.\nHowever, this will not change the whole picture. Bulls say that bears are complaining about the same things (SBC, competition, etc.) - yes, but to all questions, bears receive either emotional outbursts about how the company will change the world (due to innovation, which simply does not exist) or naive ideas as separately taken problems can be solved just by themselves.\nAt the moment, the position of the bears is closer to me. I am not questioning the company's product - yes, it may be really good. But it's hardly much better than what's already on the market (specifically in the \"Commercial\" segment). Management is not doing enough, in my opinion, to make the company profitable and stop shareholder dilution - that's the most important warning sign for any long-term investor. The behavior of Karp and his team suggests that Palantir is something of a \"cash cow\" - more specifically, its shareholders, who tirelessly justify everything that happens with the \"above-30%-long-term-growth\" promises (even the hulking IT giants showed much greater revenue growth compared to Palantir).\nIn the short term, the stock is likely to respond with a strong upward move on the back of justified earnings forecasts. However, recent insider trades suggest that net profit margins (or more accurately, losses) will not significantly improve - again, revenue growth will not do any good. Such an expansion strategy carries serious risks - if the company falters at some point, the market will not forgive it, given how long shareholders have endured \"the value erosion\".\nIn the long run, I believe that unless SBC stops, the stock will remain in its flat state, as I showed in my previous article with other tech companies with \"promising prospects\". Ultimately, the risk/reward ratio is not on the side of long-term investors - at the very least, you need to wait for clear action from management to bring the company to profitability (it would be high time, after 18 years of existence).\nYou may, of course, think otherwise. If I were tasked with expanding my audience, I would only ever write good things about PLTR, because even among Seeking Alpha users, most people only expect positive things from the company(therefore, they are looking for confirmation of their belief in different articles). However, I have decided to periodically remind you of the risks you take when buying PLTR in light of everything that is going on around the company. In my opinion, diversity of opinion and awareness of all risks is the key to rational investment decisions in the stock market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Palantir: Risk-Reward Is Not In Your Favor For The Long Run<blockquote>Palantir：从长远来看，风险回报对你不利</blockquote>

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