It's a bub_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

jaster
2021-11-06

It's a bubble. Isn't the first, definitely wouldn't be the last. Still, retail (and indeed, institutional) investors are not always rational and it may be a long time before it finally bursts. You don't want to be left holding the bag when that happens. "Invest" if you like, but don't put everything in it. And definitely don't trade on margins with this counter.

Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>

Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r

Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>

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And definitely don't trade on margins with this counter.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>It's a bubble. Isn't the first, definitely wouldn't be the last. Still, retail&nbsp;(and indeed, institutional) investors are not always rational and it may be a long time before it finally bursts. You don't want to be left holding the bag when that happens. \"Invest\" if you like, but don't put everything in it. And definitely don't trade on margins with this counter.</body></html>","text":"It's a bubble. Isn't the first, definitely wouldn't be the last. Still, retail (and indeed, institutional) investors are not always rational and it may be a long time before it finally bursts. You don't want to be left holding the bag when that happens. \"Invest\" if you like, but don't put everything in it. And definitely don't trade on margins with this counter.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842380314","repostId":1180620689,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180620689","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180620689?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.<blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.<blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.<blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.<blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.<blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.<blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.<blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.<blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测巴伦周刊他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.<blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.<blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.<blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.<blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-11-05 19:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.<blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.<blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.<blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.<blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.<blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.<blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.<blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.<blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.<blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测巴伦周刊他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.<blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.<blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.<blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.<blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2024,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":302,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}