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Matt_cjx
2021-11-01

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Morgan Stanley says bulls can keep running through Thanksgiving, but not much longer<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示多头可以在感恩节期间继续运行，但不会持续太久</blockquote>

Morgan Stanley is going against consensus on earnings again, predicting a bigger earnings growth slo

Morgan Stanley says bulls can keep running through Thanksgiving, but not much longer<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示多头可以在感恩节期间继续运行，但不会持续太久</blockquote>

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(See Morgan Stanley chart at bottom.)</li>  <li>The earnings slowdown, combined with Fed tightening and inflation worries, will eventually arrest the market's rise, Wilson says.</li>  <li>Stocks are looking to kick November off on the front foot, though, with S&amp;P futures(SPX)&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:SPY)and Nasdaq 100 futures(NDX:IND)(NASDAQ:QQQ)&nbsp;rising through the morning.</li>  <li>\"Bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating as the Fed starts to tighten monetary policy and earnings growth slows further into next year, turning outright negative for some companies,\" Wilson says. \"However, asset prices are continuing to rise as retail investors keep plowing excess cash into these same investments.\"</li>  <li>\"Meanwhile, with strong seasonal trends and pressure to perform high at this time of year, many institutional investors we speak with are staying fully invested for these technical reasons. If our analysis is correct, we think that this bullish trend can continue into Thanksgiving, but not much longer.\"</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c2cbb02eede9aa8ced4d1f80a635aed\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"444\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利再次违背了盈利共识，预测盈利增长放缓幅度将超过华尔街预期的幅度。</li><li>股票策略师迈克·威尔逊写道：“我们不禁回想起一年多前的立场，当时我们主张盈利增长比共识快得多。”“我们当时认为，创纪录的财政刺激将有效地充当政府对企业超额利润的补贴。”</li><li>“今天，我们发现自己再次站在共识的对立面，但原因是相同的，”威尔逊说。“由于我们认为consensus去年未能看到这一逻辑，因此现在似乎可能错过了推论。”</li><li>“简而言之，我们认为盈利增长放缓将比预期更严重，持续时间更长，因为需求将在明年初恢复，个人可支配收入同比大幅下降。”</li><li>他补充说，收入范围低端的消费者信心正在下降，个人储蓄已经耗尽到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。（见底部摩根士丹利图表。）</li><li>威尔逊表示，盈利放缓，加上美联储紧缩政策和通胀担忧，最终将阻止市场的上涨。</li><li>不过，股市有望在11月份开局良好，标准普尔期货(SPX)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)和纳斯达克100期货(NDX：IND)(纳斯达克：QQQ)整个上午都在上涨。</li><li>威尔逊表示：“最重要的是，随着美联储开始收紧货币政策以及明年盈利增长进一步放缓，股市的基本面正在恶化，这对一些公司来说完全是负面的。”“然而，随着散户投资者不断将多余现金投入这些相同的投资，资产价格持续上涨。”</li><li>“与此同时，由于强劲的季节性趋势和每年这个时候表现强劲的压力，我们采访的许多机构投资者都出于这些技术原因保持全额投资。如果我们的分析正确，我们认为这种看涨趋势可以持续到感恩节，但不会持续太久。”</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley says bulls can keep running through Thanksgiving, but not much longer<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示多头可以在感恩节期间继续运行，但不会持续太久</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley says bulls can keep running through Thanksgiving, but not much longer<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示多头可以在感恩节期间继续运行，但不会持续太久</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-01 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Morgan Stanley is going against consensus on earnings again, predicting a bigger earnings growth slowdown than Wall Street is pricing in.</li>  <li>\"We can’t help but recall our position over a year ago, when we argued for much faster earnings growth than the consensus,\" equity strategist Mike Wilson writes. \"We argued then that the record fiscal stimulus would effectively serve as a government subsidy for corporations to over-earn.\"</li>  <li>\"Today, we find ourselves on the direct opposite side of consensus again, but for the same reasons,\" Wilson says. \"Since we believe consensus failed to see that logic last year, it seems plausible it could now be missing the corollary. \"</li>  <li>\"In short, we think the earnings growth slowdown will be worse and last longer than expected as the payback in demand arrives early next year with a sharp year-over-year decline in personal disposable income.\"</li>  <li>Consumer sentiment is dropping at the lower end of the income spectrum and personal savings have already been depleted to pre-COVID levels, he adds. (See Morgan Stanley chart at bottom.)</li>  <li>The earnings slowdown, combined with Fed tightening and inflation worries, will eventually arrest the market's rise, Wilson says.</li>  <li>Stocks are looking to kick November off on the front foot, though, with S&amp;P futures(SPX)&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:SPY)and Nasdaq 100 futures(NDX:IND)(NASDAQ:QQQ)&nbsp;rising through the morning.</li>  <li>\"Bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating as the Fed starts to tighten monetary policy and earnings growth slows further into next year, turning outright negative for some companies,\" Wilson says. \"However, asset prices are continuing to rise as retail investors keep plowing excess cash into these same investments.\"</li>  <li>\"Meanwhile, with strong seasonal trends and pressure to perform high at this time of year, many institutional investors we speak with are staying fully invested for these technical reasons. If our analysis is correct, we think that this bullish trend can continue into Thanksgiving, but not much longer.\"</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c2cbb02eede9aa8ced4d1f80a635aed\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"444\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利再次违背了盈利共识，预测盈利增长放缓幅度将超过华尔街预期的幅度。</li><li>股票策略师迈克·威尔逊写道：“我们不禁回想起一年多前的立场，当时我们主张盈利增长比共识快得多。”“我们当时认为，创纪录的财政刺激将有效地充当政府对企业超额利润的补贴。”</li><li>“今天，我们发现自己再次站在共识的对立面，但原因是相同的，”威尔逊说。“由于我们认为consensus去年未能看到这一逻辑，因此现在似乎可能错过了推论。”</li><li>“简而言之，我们认为盈利增长放缓将比预期更严重，持续时间更长，因为需求将在明年初恢复，个人可支配收入同比大幅下降。”</li><li>他补充说，收入范围低端的消费者信心正在下降，个人储蓄已经耗尽到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。（见底部摩根士丹利图表。）</li><li>威尔逊表示，盈利放缓，加上美联储紧缩政策和通胀担忧，最终将阻止市场的上涨。</li><li>不过，股市有望在11月份开局良好，标准普尔期货(SPX)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)和纳斯达克100期货(NDX：IND)(纳斯达克：QQQ)整个上午都在上涨。</li><li>威尔逊表示：“最重要的是，随着美联储开始收紧货币政策以及明年盈利增长进一步放缓，股市的基本面正在恶化，这对一些公司来说完全是负面的。”“然而，随着散户投资者不断将多余现金投入这些相同的投资，资产价格持续上涨。”</li><li>“与此同时，由于强劲的季节性趋势和每年这个时候表现强劲的压力，我们采访的许多机构投资者都出于这些技术原因保持全额投资。如果我们的分析正确，我们认为这种看涨趋势可以持续到感恩节，但不会持续太久。”</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3761303-morgan-stanley-says-bulls-can-keep-running-through-thanksgiving-but-not-much-longer\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3761303-morgan-stanley-says-bulls-can-keep-running-through-thanksgiving-but-not-much-longer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100819802","content_text":"Morgan Stanley is going against consensus on earnings again, predicting a bigger earnings growth slowdown than Wall Street is pricing in.\n\"We can’t help but recall our position over a year ago, when we argued for much faster earnings growth than the consensus,\" equity strategist Mike Wilson writes. \"We argued then that the record fiscal stimulus would effectively serve as a government subsidy for corporations to over-earn.\"\n\"Today, we find ourselves on the direct opposite side of consensus again, but for the same reasons,\" Wilson says. \"Since we believe consensus failed to see that logic last year, it seems plausible it could now be missing the corollary. \"\n\"In short, we think the earnings growth slowdown will be worse and last longer than expected as the payback in demand arrives early next year with a sharp year-over-year decline in personal disposable income.\"\nConsumer sentiment is dropping at the lower end of the income spectrum and personal savings have already been depleted to pre-COVID levels, he adds. (See Morgan Stanley chart at bottom.)\nThe earnings slowdown, combined with Fed tightening and inflation worries, will eventually arrest the market's rise, Wilson says.\nStocks are looking to kick November off on the front foot, though, with S&P futures(SPX) (NYSEARCA:SPY)and Nasdaq 100 futures(NDX:IND)(NASDAQ:QQQ) rising through the morning.\n\"Bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating as the Fed starts to tighten monetary policy and earnings growth slows further into next year, turning outright negative for some companies,\" Wilson says. \"However, asset prices are continuing to rise as retail investors keep plowing excess cash into these same investments.\"\n\"Meanwhile, with strong seasonal trends and pressure to perform high at this time of year, many institutional investors we speak with are staying fully invested for these technical reasons. If our analysis is correct, we think that this bullish trend can continue into Thanksgiving, but not much longer.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3670,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Morgan Stanley says bulls can keep running through Thanksgiving, but not much longer<blockquote>摩根士丹利表示多头可以在感恩节期间继续运行，但不会持续太久</blockquote>

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