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2021-10-29

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This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>

The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for st

This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>

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That could spell rough waters for st","content":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.<blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.<blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.<blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.<blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”<blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.<blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.<blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.<blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.<blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.<blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.<blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.<blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-10-29 13:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.<blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.<blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.<blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.<blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”<blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.<blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.<blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.<blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.<blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.<blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.<blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF&nbsp;(ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the&nbsp;Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF&nbsp;(XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.<blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147983155","content_text":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.\nThe yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.\nThe 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.\nFigures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.\n“Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”\nThe difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.\nThe stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.\nThe slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.\n“If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.\nThat isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.\nA steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.\nShares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.\n“Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>

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