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DarwinNg
2021-09-28

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Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>

Summary Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous mile

Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>

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If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.<blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD<blockquote>资料来源：道明</blockquote> Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders<blockquote>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</blockquote> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.<blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple<blockquote>资料来源：苹果</blockquote> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.<blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.<blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Everything Money<blockquote>资料来源：一切金钱</blockquote> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.<blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote> Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback<blockquote>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</blockquote> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.<blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.<blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?<blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote> What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?<blockquote>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</blockquote> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.<blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.<blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.<blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 22:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li> <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li> <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Stephen Lam/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度财报，苹果有望迎来井喷的一年，从总收入到净利润都打破了之前的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大的价值。</li><li>与同行相比，苹果公司看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的眼光，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.<blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD<blockquote>资料来源：道明</blockquote> Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders<blockquote>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</blockquote> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.<blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple<blockquote>资料来源：苹果</blockquote> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.<blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.<blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Everything Money<blockquote>资料来源：一切金钱</blockquote> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.<blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.<blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote> Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback<blockquote>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</blockquote> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.<blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.<blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?<blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote> What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?<blockquote>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</blockquote> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.<blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.<blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.<blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152246777","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.\nApple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.\nCompared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nI don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.\nSource: TD\nUnderstanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders\nI have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always comments about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.\nSource: Apple\nWhy are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.\nWhen AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.\nSource: Everything Money\nI recently wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.\nApple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback\nShares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the four largest companies in the S&P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.\nSource: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?\nWhat are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?\nAAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.\nI look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)\nConclusion\nAAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2537,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}