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2021-09-29

Owner-Equivalent Rent Shock On Deck As Actual Rents Surge By Most On Record<blockquote>随着实际租金创下历史新高，业主等效租金冲击即将到来</blockquote>

Another month, another record surge in US rents to a new all time high. According to theApartment Li

Owner-Equivalent Rent Shock On Deck As Actual Rents Surge By Most On Record<blockquote>随着实际租金创下历史新高，业主等效租金冲击即将到来</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":862666435,"tweetId":"862666435","gmtCreate":1632876245900,"gmtModify":1632876245900,"author":{"id":4087299128031090,"idStr":"4087299128031090","authorId":4087299128031090,"authorIdStr":"4087299128031090","name":"Lemontart","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9928a331ddd0127bcf6dfc6e8becce27","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862666435","repostId":1104845344,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104845344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104845344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Owner-Equivalent Rent Shock On Deck As Actual Rents Surge By Most On Record<blockquote>随着实际租金创下历史新高，业主等效租金冲击即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104845344","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Another month, another record surge in US rents to a new all time high.\nAccording to theApartment Li","content":"Another month, another record surge in US rents to a new all time high.<blockquote>又是一个月，美国租金再次创下历史新高。</blockquote> According to theApartment Listnational index, US rents increased by 2.1% from August to September, and although month-over-month growth has slowed slightly from its July peak when the sequential growth rate was 2.6%, rents are still growing much faster than the pre-pandemic trend. Since January of this year, the national median rent has increased by a staggering 16.4%. To put that in context, rent growth from January to September averaged just 3.4% in the pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019.<blockquote>根据theApartment Listnational index的数据，8月至9月美国租金上涨了2.1%，尽管环比增长较7月份的峰值（环比增长率为2.6%）略有放缓，但租金的增长速度仍远高于疫情前的趋势。自今年1月以来，全国租金中位数上涨了惊人的16.4%。在此背景下，2017-2019 年疫情爆发前，1 月至 9 月的租金平均增长率仅为 3.4%。</blockquote> While even the smallest cooldown in rent growth is a welcome change for renters, Apartment List's Chris Salviati notes that it’s important to bear in mind that prior to this year, the national index never increased by more than 0.9 percent in a single month, going back to 2017. \"Furthermore, we have now entered the time of year when rents are normally declining due to seasonality in the market. In September of 2018 and 2019, for example, rents fell by 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.\"<blockquote>虽然租金增长即使是最小的降温对租房者来说也是一个受欢迎的变化，但《公寓清单》的克里斯-萨尔维亚蒂（Chris Salviati）指出，重要的是要记住，在今年之前，全国指数从2017年开始，单月涨幅从未超过0.9%。“此外，由于市场的季节性，我们现在已经进入了一年中租金通常会下降的时间。例如，在2018年和2019年9月，租金分别下降了0.1%和0.3%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ababcf05160d89248ff02f47a144eac\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That said, we have a ways to go before US rent - where the median just rose above $1,300 for the first time ever - decline; and with rents rising virtually everywhere, only a few cities still remain cheaper than they were pre-pandemic, and even these remaining discounts are unlikely to persist much longer. At the other end of the spectrum, Apartment List finds22 cities among the 100 largest where rents have increased by more than 25 percent since the start of the pandemic.That said, there are some early signals that tightness in the market may be beginning to ease: the vacancy index ticked up this month for the first time since last April. And in Boise, ID, which has seen the nation’s biggest price increase since the start of the pandemic, rents finally dipped slightly this month.<blockquote>也就是说，在租金下降之前，我们还有很长的路要走——租金中位数刚刚首次升至 1,300 美元以上；随着几乎所有地方的租金都在上涨，只有少数城市的房价仍然比大流行前便宜，即使这些剩余的折扣也不太可能持续太久。另一方面，公寓清单发现自疫情开始以来，100 个最大城市中有 22 个城市的租金上涨了 25% 以上。尽管如此，有一些早期迹象表明市场紧张局势可能开始缓解：本月空缺指数自去年4月以来首次上升。在爱达荷州的博伊西，房价涨幅是自大流行病开始以来全国最大的，本月房租终于略有下降。</blockquote> The chart below visualizes monthly rent changes in each of the nation’s 100 largest cities from January 2018 to September 2021. The color in each cell represents the extent to which prices went up (red) or down (blue) in a given city in a given month. Bands of dark blue in 2020 represent the large urban centers where rent prices cratered (e.g., New York, San Francisco, Boston), but those bands have quickly turned red as ubiquitous rent growth sweeps the nation in 2021. In 2020, 60 of these cities saw rent prices rise from August to September, but this year, 97 cities got more expensive in September.<blockquote>下图显示了 2018 年 1 月至 2021 年 9 月期间全国 100 个最大城市的月租金变化。每个单元格中的颜色代表给定城市在给定月份的价格上涨（红色）或下跌（蓝色）的程度。2020年的深蓝色带代表了租金价格暴跌的大型城市中心（如纽约、旧金山、波士顿），但随着2021年无处不在的租金增长席卷全国，这些带很快变成了红色。2020年，这些城市中有60个从8月到9月的租金价格上涨，但今年，97个城市在9月份变得更加昂贵。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eab3c0b28f30388b1fc4564f53bbda9\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In a glimmer of hope for Americans locked out of not only the housing but the rental market, one of the few markets where rents did not increase this month was Boise, ID. Since last March, rents in Boise are up by a staggering 39%, making the city the archetype for rental market disruption amid the pandemic. This month, however, the median rent in Boise fell by 0.1%. While such a small dip certainly doesn’t offer much relief to Boise renters, it may at least signal that the market is finally starting to stabilize. Spokane, WA, another city that has experienced skyrocketing rent growth this year, saw an even more notable decline this month, with rents down 1.8 percent.<blockquote>对于不仅被排除在住房市场之外，而且被排除在租赁市场之外的美国人来说，这是一线希望，本月租金没有上涨的少数几个市场之一是爱达荷州的博伊西。自去年3月以来，博伊西的租金上涨了惊人的39%，使该市成为疫情期间租赁市场混乱的原型。然而，本月博伊西的租金中位数下降了0.1%。虽然这样的小幅下跌肯定不会给博伊西的租房者带来多大的缓解，但它至少可能预示着市场终于开始趋于稳定。华盛顿州斯波坎是另一个今年租金飙升的城市，本月租金下降更为明显，下降了1.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29df5c06e6a9f068df656f5ed979c3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Unfortunately, Boise and Spokane represent the exception rather than the rule -- in most of the cities where rents had been growing quickly, that growth is continuing. Tampa, for example, saw rents jump by another 3.9% this month, and the city now ranks 2nd for cumulative rent growth since the start of the pandemic at 36%. Excluding Boise and Spokane, the other eight cities in the chart above experienced rent growth of 3.5%, on average, from August to September, as affordable Sunbelt markets continue to boom. Of particular note, four of the ten cities with the fastest rent growth since last March are suburbs of Phoenix.<blockquote>不幸的是，博伊西和斯波坎是例外，而不是普遍现象——在大多数租金快速增长的城市，这种增长仍在继续。例如，坦帕本月租金又上涨了3.9%，自疫情开始以来，该市的累计租金增长率为36%，目前排名第二。除了博伊西和斯波坎，上图中的其他八个城市从8月到9月的租金平均增长了3.5%，因为负担得起的阳光地带市场继续繁荣。特别值得注意的是，自去年3月以来租金增长最快的十个城市中有四个是凤凰城的郊区。</blockquote> A more tangible indicator that demand destruction may be setting in, is that vacancy rates have posted their first increase since March. Indeed, as Apartment List notes, much of this year’s boom in rent prices can be attributed to a tight market in which more and more households are competing for fewer and fewer vacant units. The vacancy index spiked from 6.2% to 7.1% last April, as many Americans moved in with family or friends amid the uncertainty and economic disruption of the pandemic’s onset. Since then, however, vacancies have been steadily declining. For the past several months, the vacancy index has been hovering just below 4%, significantly lower than the 6% rate that was typical pre-pandemic.<blockquote>需求破坏可能正在出现的一个更切实的指标是，空置率自 3 月份以来首次上升。事实上，正如 Apartment List 所指出的那样，今年租金价格的飙升在很大程度上可以归因于市场紧张，越来越多的家庭正在争夺越来越少的空置单元。去年 4 月，由于大流行病爆发带来的不确定性和经济混乱，许多美国人搬到了家人或朋友那里，空置指数从 6.2% 飙升至 7.1%。然而，自那以后，职位空缺一直在稳步下降。在过去的几个月里，空缺指数一直徘徊在略低于4%的水平，明显低于大流行前典型的6%。</blockquote> This month, however, the vacancy index ticked up slightly, from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent.Although this is a very minor increase, it represents the first increase of any magnitude since last April.While a few more months of data would be needed to confirm an inflection point, if vacancies are back on the rise again, it would signal that tightness in the rental market is finally beginning to ease and that rent growth will also continue to cool.<blockquote>然而，本月空缺指数略有上升，从 3.8% 上升到 3.9%。虽然这是一个非常小的增长，但它代表了自去年4月以来任何幅度的首次增长。虽然还需要几个月的数据来确认拐点，但如果空置率再次上升，这将表明租赁市场的紧张局势终于开始缓解，租金增长也将继续降温。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c20dcd20db5472c3520318c0d2ec1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, where there may be light at the end of the tunnel in real-time data, we have yet to see the pig even enter the python when it comes to the CPI's Owner Equivalent Rent data series. As shown below, the Apartment List data normally has a 4 month lead to the OER series, which means that as actual rents soar by over 15% Y/Y, OER is either going to skyrocket in the coming quarters or the BLS will have to come up with some very fancy hedonic adjustments why rental inflation should exclude, well, rental inflation.<blockquote>最后，在实时数据的隧道尽头可能有曙光的地方，当涉及到CPI的业主等值租金数据系列时，我们甚至还没有看到猪进入python。如下所示，公寓列表数据通常在OER系列之前有4个月的时间，这意味着随着实际租金同比飙升超过15%，OER要么在未来几个季度飙升，要么BLS将不得不提出一些非常花哨的享乐调整，为什么租金通胀应该排除租金通胀。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a081c0ce24e0d5801ed8533c04f0a0\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Owner-Equivalent Rent Shock On Deck As Actual Rents Surge By Most On Record<blockquote>随着实际租金创下历史新高，业主等效租金冲击即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOwner-Equivalent Rent Shock On Deck As Actual Rents Surge By Most On Record<blockquote>随着实际租金创下历史新高，业主等效租金冲击即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-29 08:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAnother month, another record surge in US rents to a new all time high.<blockquote>又是一个月，美国租金再次创下历史新高。</blockquote> According to theApartment Listnational index, US rents increased by 2.1% from August to September, and although month-over-month growth has slowed slightly from its July peak when the sequential growth rate was 2.6%, rents are still growing much faster than the pre-pandemic trend. Since January of this year, the national median rent has increased by a staggering 16.4%. To put that in context, rent growth from January to September averaged just 3.4% in the pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019.<blockquote>根据theApartment Listnational index的数据，8月至9月美国租金上涨了2.1%，尽管环比增长较7月份的峰值（环比增长率为2.6%）略有放缓，但租金的增长速度仍远高于疫情前的趋势。自今年1月以来，全国租金中位数上涨了惊人的16.4%。在此背景下，2017-2019 年疫情爆发前，1 月至 9 月的租金平均增长率仅为 3.4%。</blockquote> While even the smallest cooldown in rent growth is a welcome change for renters, Apartment List's Chris Salviati notes that it’s important to bear in mind that prior to this year, the national index never increased by more than 0.9 percent in a single month, going back to 2017. \"Furthermore, we have now entered the time of year when rents are normally declining due to seasonality in the market. In September of 2018 and 2019, for example, rents fell by 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.\"<blockquote>虽然租金增长即使是最小的降温对租房者来说也是一个受欢迎的变化，但《公寓清单》的克里斯-萨尔维亚蒂（Chris Salviati）指出，重要的是要记住，在今年之前，全国指数从2017年开始，单月涨幅从未超过0.9%。“此外，由于市场的季节性，我们现在已经进入了一年中租金通常会下降的时间。例如，在2018年和2019年9月，租金分别下降了0.1%和0.3%。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ababcf05160d89248ff02f47a144eac\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That said, we have a ways to go before US rent - where the median just rose above $1,300 for the first time ever - decline; and with rents rising virtually everywhere, only a few cities still remain cheaper than they were pre-pandemic, and even these remaining discounts are unlikely to persist much longer. At the other end of the spectrum, Apartment List finds22 cities among the 100 largest where rents have increased by more than 25 percent since the start of the pandemic.That said, there are some early signals that tightness in the market may be beginning to ease: the vacancy index ticked up this month for the first time since last April. And in Boise, ID, which has seen the nation’s biggest price increase since the start of the pandemic, rents finally dipped slightly this month.<blockquote>也就是说，在租金下降之前，我们还有很长的路要走——租金中位数刚刚首次升至 1,300 美元以上；随着几乎所有地方的租金都在上涨，只有少数城市的房价仍然比大流行前便宜，即使这些剩余的折扣也不太可能持续太久。另一方面，公寓清单发现自疫情开始以来，100 个最大城市中有 22 个城市的租金上涨了 25% 以上。尽管如此，有一些早期迹象表明市场紧张局势可能开始缓解：本月空缺指数自去年4月以来首次上升。在爱达荷州的博伊西，房价涨幅是自大流行病开始以来全国最大的，本月房租终于略有下降。</blockquote> The chart below visualizes monthly rent changes in each of the nation’s 100 largest cities from January 2018 to September 2021. The color in each cell represents the extent to which prices went up (red) or down (blue) in a given city in a given month. Bands of dark blue in 2020 represent the large urban centers where rent prices cratered (e.g., New York, San Francisco, Boston), but those bands have quickly turned red as ubiquitous rent growth sweeps the nation in 2021. In 2020, 60 of these cities saw rent prices rise from August to September, but this year, 97 cities got more expensive in September.<blockquote>下图显示了 2018 年 1 月至 2021 年 9 月期间全国 100 个最大城市的月租金变化。每个单元格中的颜色代表给定城市在给定月份的价格上涨（红色）或下跌（蓝色）的程度。2020年的深蓝色带代表了租金价格暴跌的大型城市中心（如纽约、旧金山、波士顿），但随着2021年无处不在的租金增长席卷全国，这些带很快变成了红色。2020年，这些城市中有60个从8月到9月的租金价格上涨，但今年，97个城市在9月份变得更加昂贵。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eab3c0b28f30388b1fc4564f53bbda9\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In a glimmer of hope for Americans locked out of not only the housing but the rental market, one of the few markets where rents did not increase this month was Boise, ID. Since last March, rents in Boise are up by a staggering 39%, making the city the archetype for rental market disruption amid the pandemic. This month, however, the median rent in Boise fell by 0.1%. While such a small dip certainly doesn’t offer much relief to Boise renters, it may at least signal that the market is finally starting to stabilize. Spokane, WA, another city that has experienced skyrocketing rent growth this year, saw an even more notable decline this month, with rents down 1.8 percent.<blockquote>对于不仅被排除在住房市场之外，而且被排除在租赁市场之外的美国人来说，这是一线希望，本月租金没有上涨的少数几个市场之一是爱达荷州的博伊西。自去年3月以来，博伊西的租金上涨了惊人的39%，使该市成为疫情期间租赁市场混乱的原型。然而，本月博伊西的租金中位数下降了0.1%。虽然这样的小幅下跌肯定不会给博伊西的租房者带来多大的缓解，但它至少可能预示着市场终于开始趋于稳定。华盛顿州斯波坎是另一个今年租金飙升的城市，本月租金下降更为明显，下降了1.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29df5c06e6a9f068df656f5ed979c3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Unfortunately, Boise and Spokane represent the exception rather than the rule -- in most of the cities where rents had been growing quickly, that growth is continuing. Tampa, for example, saw rents jump by another 3.9% this month, and the city now ranks 2nd for cumulative rent growth since the start of the pandemic at 36%. Excluding Boise and Spokane, the other eight cities in the chart above experienced rent growth of 3.5%, on average, from August to September, as affordable Sunbelt markets continue to boom. Of particular note, four of the ten cities with the fastest rent growth since last March are suburbs of Phoenix.<blockquote>不幸的是，博伊西和斯波坎是例外，而不是普遍现象——在大多数租金快速增长的城市，这种增长仍在继续。例如，坦帕本月租金又上涨了3.9%，自疫情开始以来，该市的累计租金增长率为36%，目前排名第二。除了博伊西和斯波坎，上图中的其他八个城市从8月到9月的租金平均增长了3.5%，因为负担得起的阳光地带市场继续繁荣。特别值得注意的是，自去年3月以来租金增长最快的十个城市中有四个是凤凰城的郊区。</blockquote> A more tangible indicator that demand destruction may be setting in, is that vacancy rates have posted their first increase since March. Indeed, as Apartment List notes, much of this year’s boom in rent prices can be attributed to a tight market in which more and more households are competing for fewer and fewer vacant units. The vacancy index spiked from 6.2% to 7.1% last April, as many Americans moved in with family or friends amid the uncertainty and economic disruption of the pandemic’s onset. Since then, however, vacancies have been steadily declining. For the past several months, the vacancy index has been hovering just below 4%, significantly lower than the 6% rate that was typical pre-pandemic.<blockquote>需求破坏可能正在出现的一个更切实的指标是，空置率自 3 月份以来首次上升。事实上，正如 Apartment List 所指出的那样，今年租金价格的飙升在很大程度上可以归因于市场紧张，越来越多的家庭正在争夺越来越少的空置单元。去年 4 月，由于大流行病爆发带来的不确定性和经济混乱，许多美国人搬到了家人或朋友那里，空置指数从 6.2% 飙升至 7.1%。然而，自那以后，职位空缺一直在稳步下降。在过去的几个月里，空缺指数一直徘徊在略低于4%的水平，明显低于大流行前典型的6%。</blockquote> This month, however, the vacancy index ticked up slightly, from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent.Although this is a very minor increase, it represents the first increase of any magnitude since last April.While a few more months of data would be needed to confirm an inflection point, if vacancies are back on the rise again, it would signal that tightness in the rental market is finally beginning to ease and that rent growth will also continue to cool.<blockquote>然而，本月空缺指数略有上升，从 3.8% 上升到 3.9%。虽然这是一个非常小的增长，但它代表了自去年4月以来任何幅度的首次增长。虽然还需要几个月的数据来确认拐点，但如果空置率再次上升，这将表明租赁市场的紧张局势终于开始缓解，租金增长也将继续降温。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50c20dcd20db5472c3520318c0d2ec1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"777\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, where there may be light at the end of the tunnel in real-time data, we have yet to see the pig even enter the python when it comes to the CPI's Owner Equivalent Rent data series. As shown below, the Apartment List data normally has a 4 month lead to the OER series, which means that as actual rents soar by over 15% Y/Y, OER is either going to skyrocket in the coming quarters or the BLS will have to come up with some very fancy hedonic adjustments why rental inflation should exclude, well, rental inflation.<blockquote>最后，在实时数据的隧道尽头可能有曙光的地方，当涉及到CPI的业主等值租金数据系列时，我们甚至还没有看到猪进入python。如下所示，公寓列表数据通常在OER系列之前有4个月的时间，这意味着随着实际租金同比飙升超过15%，OER要么在未来几个季度飙升，要么BLS将不得不提出一些非常花哨的享乐调整，为什么租金通胀应该排除租金通胀。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a081c0ce24e0d5801ed8533c04f0a0\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/owner-equivalent-rent-shock-deck-actual-rents-surge-most-record\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/owner-equivalent-rent-shock-deck-actual-rents-surge-most-record","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104845344","content_text":"Another month, another record surge in US rents to a new all time high.\nAccording to theApartment Listnational index, US rents increased by 2.1% from August to September, and although month-over-month growth has slowed slightly from its July peak when the sequential growth rate was 2.6%, rents are still growing much faster than the pre-pandemic trend. Since January of this year, the national median rent has increased by a staggering 16.4%. To put that in context, rent growth from January to September averaged just 3.4% in the pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019.\nWhile even the smallest cooldown in rent growth is a welcome change for renters, Apartment List's Chris Salviati notes that it’s important to bear in mind that prior to this year, the national index never increased by more than 0.9 percent in a single month, going back to 2017. \"Furthermore, we have now entered the time of year when rents are normally declining due to seasonality in the market. In September of 2018 and 2019, for example, rents fell by 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.\"\nThat said, we have a ways to go before US rent - where the median just rose above $1,300 for the first time ever - decline; and with rents rising virtually everywhere, only a few cities still remain cheaper than they were pre-pandemic, and even these remaining discounts are unlikely to persist much longer. At the other end of the spectrum, Apartment List finds22 cities among the 100 largest where rents have increased by more than 25 percent since the start of the pandemic.That said, there are some early signals that tightness in the market may be beginning to ease: the vacancy index ticked up this month for the first time since last April. And in Boise, ID, which has seen the nation’s biggest price increase since the start of the pandemic, rents finally dipped slightly this month.\nThe chart below visualizes monthly rent changes in each of the nation’s 100 largest cities from January 2018 to September 2021. The color in each cell represents the extent to which prices went up (red) or down (blue) in a given city in a given month. Bands of dark blue in 2020 represent the large urban centers where rent prices cratered (e.g., New York, San Francisco, Boston), but those bands have quickly turned red as ubiquitous rent growth sweeps the nation in 2021. In 2020, 60 of these cities saw rent prices rise from August to September, but this year, 97 cities got more expensive in September.\nIn a glimmer of hope for Americans locked out of not only the housing but the rental market, one of the few markets where rents did not increase this month was Boise, ID. Since last March, rents in Boise are up by a staggering 39%, making the city the archetype for rental market disruption amid the pandemic. This month, however, the median rent in Boise fell by 0.1%. While such a small dip certainly doesn’t offer much relief to Boise renters, it may at least signal that the market is finally starting to stabilize. Spokane, WA, another city that has experienced skyrocketing rent growth this year, saw an even more notable decline this month, with rents down 1.8 percent.\nUnfortunately, Boise and Spokane represent the exception rather than the rule -- in most of the cities where rents had been growing quickly, that growth is continuing. Tampa, for example, saw rents jump by another 3.9% this month, and the city now ranks 2nd for cumulative rent growth since the start of the pandemic at 36%. Excluding Boise and Spokane, the other eight cities in the chart above experienced rent growth of 3.5%, on average, from August to September, as affordable Sunbelt markets continue to boom. Of particular note, four of the ten cities with the fastest rent growth since last March are suburbs of Phoenix.\nA more tangible indicator that demand destruction may be setting in, is that vacancy rates have posted their first increase since March. Indeed, as Apartment List notes, much of this year’s boom in rent prices can be attributed to a tight market in which more and more households are competing for fewer and fewer vacant units. The vacancy index spiked from 6.2% to 7.1% last April, as many Americans moved in with family or friends amid the uncertainty and economic disruption of the pandemic’s onset. Since then, however, vacancies have been steadily declining. For the past several months, the vacancy index has been hovering just below 4%, significantly lower than the 6% rate that was typical pre-pandemic.\nThis month, however, the vacancy index ticked up slightly, from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent.Although this is a very minor increase, it represents the first increase of any magnitude since last April.While a few more months of data would be needed to confirm an inflection point, if vacancies are back on the rise again, it would signal that tightness in the rental market is finally beginning to ease and that rent growth will also continue to cool.\nFinally, where there may be light at the end of the tunnel in real-time data, we have yet to see the pig even enter the python when it comes to the CPI's Owner Equivalent Rent data series. As shown below, the Apartment List data normally has a 4 month lead to the OER series, which means that as actual rents soar by over 15% Y/Y, OER is either going to skyrocket in the coming quarters or the BLS will have to come up with some very fancy hedonic adjustments why rental inflation should exclude, well, rental inflation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}