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2021-09-21

Chance to buy low

Why the Stock Market Tanked Monday—and What to Do About It<blockquote>为什么股市周一暴跌——以及该怎么办</blockquote>

The stock market tanked—and a correction may be in the offing. While China Evergrande is getting all

Why the Stock Market Tanked Monday—and What to Do About It<blockquote>为什么股市周一暴跌——以及该怎么办</blockquote>

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While China Evergrande is getting all","content":"The stock market tanked—and a correction may be in the offing. While China Evergrande is getting all the attention, the real problem might be risks to earnings and valuations.<blockquote>股市暴跌，调整可能即将到来。尽管中国恒大受到了所有关注，但真正的问题可能是盈利和估值的风险。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.7% Monday, and the index is down 3.9% from its all-time high. That may just be the beginning, says Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief equity strategist, who calls for the S&amp;P 500 to drop as much as 15% this year. “It’s the coalescing of multiple risks in the fourth quarter that cause us to be cautious through September and October,” Bannister says.<blockquote>标普500周一下跌1.7%，该指数较历史高点下跌3.9%。Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister表示，这可能只是一个开始，他预计标普500今年将下跌15%。班尼斯特表示：“第四季度多种风险的结合导致我们在9月和10月保持谨慎。”</blockquote> While Evergrande gets the headlines, the bigger problem right now might be U.S. earnings. The companies in the S&amp;P 500 are expected to earn $217.95 in 2022, up 9.4% from 2021, but there’s plenty of downside risk.<blockquote>虽然恒大成为头条新闻，但目前更大的问题可能是美国的盈利。标普500公司预计2022年盈利217.95美元，较2021年增长9.4%，但存在很大下行风险。</blockquote> Supply-chain constraints are hampering companies’ ability to meet sales expectations, while costs continue to rise. Companies from industrial-materials maker PPG Industries (ticker: PPG) to home builder PulteGroup (PHM), have announced that sales and profits for 2021 won’t meet expectations. Investors will get a clearer picture of the supply chain issue when companies report their quarterly earnings this fall.<blockquote>供应链限制阻碍了公司满足销售预期的能力，而成本持续上升。从工业材料制造商PPG Industries（股票代码：PPG）到住宅建筑商PulteGroup(PHM)等公司都宣布2021年的销售额和利润将达不到预期。当公司今年秋季公布季度收益时，投资者将更清楚地了解供应链问题。</blockquote> “One question that’s going to start creeping in once we get to the third quarter is how much of the supply chain disruptions and inability to meet demand is going hit companies’ bottom lines,” says Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s becoming much more acute.”<blockquote>BMO资本市场首席投资策略师Yung Yu Ma表示：“一旦进入第三季度，一个问题将开始出现，那就是供应链中断和无法满足需求将在多大程度上影响公司的利润。”。“这种情况变得更加严重。”</blockquote> The other risk to profits that markets have largely ignored is higher corporate taxes. Goldman Sachs strategists say 2022 earnings per share on the S&amp;P 500 could fall roughly 5% with a corporate tax hike to 25% from the current 21%—and House Democrats recently proposed an increase to 26.5%. With aggregate 2022 analyst estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS at $217.95, therefore, EPS could fall to $207. At a current 21 times, the index could drop 5% on a corporate tax hike—assuming the forward earnings multiple remains the same.<blockquote>市场基本上忽视的另一个利润风险是更高的公司税。高盛策略师表示，如果公司税从目前的21%上调至25%，标普500 2022年每股收益可能会下降约5%，而众议院民主党人最近提议将税率上调至26.5%。因此，分析师对标普500 2022年每股收益的总体预期为217.95美元，每股收益可能会降至207美元。以目前的21倍计算，假设预期市盈率保持不变，该指数可能会因公司税上调而下跌5%。</blockquote> There’s a good chance it won’t. One major reason the S&amp;P 500’s average valuation is above its prepandemic level of 19 times—it currently trades at 20.4 times 12-month forward earnings—is because the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.31% from 1.8% before the pandemic. Lower bond yields make future profits more valuable.<blockquote>很有可能不会。标普500平均估值高于疫情前19倍水平（目前12个月预期市盈率为20.4倍）的一个主要原因是10年期国债收益率已从疫情前的1.8%降至1.31%。较低的债券收益率使未来的利润更有价值。</blockquote> There’s a good chance yields are heading higher. The Federal Reserve has recently been buying tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bonds a month, driving bond prices up and yields down. But the central bank is now signaling it will wind that program down as soon as this year to zero dollars within a few quarters, which means less money into bonds, lower prices, and higher yields. (We’ll learn more Wednesday when the Fed releases its monetary policy statement.) That catalyst could drive the 10-year Treasury yield back up to 1.8% by year-end and the S&amp;P 500’s multiple down to 19 times, writes Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.<blockquote>收益率很有可能会走高。美联储最近一直在每月购买数百亿美元的国债，推动债券价格上涨，收益率下降。但央行现在表示，最快将于今年在几个季度内将该计划缩减至零美元，这意味着投入债券的资金减少、价格下降和收益率上升。（周三美联储发布货币政策声明时我们将了解更多信息。）Mike Wilson写道，这一催化剂可能会推动10年期国债收益率在年底前回升至1.8%，标普500的市盈率降至19倍。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师。</blockquote> Combine the lower valuations with the drop in earnings estimates and the S&amp;P 500 could have a lot further to fall. If the index trades at 19 times 2022 earnings of $207, the S&amp;P 500 would trade at 3914, about 10% lower than its current level. If EPS is lower than that because of supply chain problems, the market could fall even harder. Wilson’s worst-case scenario estimate for the index is 3,700 by June, a 15% drop.<blockquote>将较低的估值与盈利预期的下降结合起来，标普500可能会进一步下跌。如果该指数的交易价格是2022年市盈率207美元的19倍，标普500的交易价格将为3914美元，比当前水平低约10%。如果由于供应链问题导致每股收益低于这一水平，市场可能会下跌得更厉害。威尔逊对该指数的最坏情况估计到6月份为3,700点，下降15%。</blockquote> That means there is still time for investors to play defense. Part of a potential correction would be driven by fears of slower economic growth—and that means investors should own stocks with earnings streams that are less sensitive to changes in economic demand, such as consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, and telecommunications. History bears that out—when the S&amp;P 500 drops 10%, going back to 1990, those five sectors return about 1%, on average, according to Stifel’s Bannister. “Defensives are a good place to hide if you’re in a September or October coalescing of risks,” says Bannister.<blockquote>这意味着投资者仍有时间进行防御。潜在调整的部分原因是对经济增长放缓的担忧，这意味着投资者应该持有盈利流对经济需求变化不太敏感的股票，例如必需消费品、医疗保健、公用事业、房地产和电信。历史证明了这一点——根据Stifel的Bannister的说法，从1990年开始，当标普500下跌10%时，这五个行业的平均回报率约为1%。班尼斯特表示：“如果你正处于九月或十月的风险集中时期，防御措施是一个很好的藏身之处。”</blockquote> Of course, there’s one more place investors can hide: cash. Not only does cash enable investors to load up on stocks when they dip, but if stock and Treasury prices fall, cash will hold its value save for the impact of inflation. The “least attractive asset is sometimes the best asset,” Bannister says.<blockquote>当然，投资者还有一个可以藏身的地方：现金。现金不仅使投资者能够在股票下跌时买入股票，而且如果股票和国债价格下跌，除了通货膨胀的影响外，现金将保持其价值。班尼斯特说，“最没有吸引力的资产有时是最好的资产”。</blockquote> Sometimes, it’s better to be safe than sorry.<blockquote>有时候，安全总比后悔好。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Stock Market Tanked Monday—and What to Do About It<blockquote>为什么股市周一暴跌——以及该怎么办</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Stock Market Tanked Monday—and What to Do About It<blockquote>为什么股市周一暴跌——以及该怎么办</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-21 18:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market tanked—and a correction may be in the offing. While China Evergrande is getting all the attention, the real problem might be risks to earnings and valuations.<blockquote>股市暴跌，调整可能即将到来。尽管中国恒大受到了所有关注，但真正的问题可能是盈利和估值的风险。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.7% Monday, and the index is down 3.9% from its all-time high. That may just be the beginning, says Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief equity strategist, who calls for the S&amp;P 500 to drop as much as 15% this year. “It’s the coalescing of multiple risks in the fourth quarter that cause us to be cautious through September and October,” Bannister says.<blockquote>标普500周一下跌1.7%，该指数较历史高点下跌3.9%。Stifel首席股票策略师Barry Bannister表示，这可能只是一个开始，他预计标普500今年将下跌15%。班尼斯特表示：“第四季度多种风险的结合导致我们在9月和10月保持谨慎。”</blockquote> While Evergrande gets the headlines, the bigger problem right now might be U.S. earnings. The companies in the S&amp;P 500 are expected to earn $217.95 in 2022, up 9.4% from 2021, but there’s plenty of downside risk.<blockquote>虽然恒大成为头条新闻，但目前更大的问题可能是美国的盈利。标普500公司预计2022年盈利217.95美元，较2021年增长9.4%，但存在很大下行风险。</blockquote> Supply-chain constraints are hampering companies’ ability to meet sales expectations, while costs continue to rise. Companies from industrial-materials maker PPG Industries (ticker: PPG) to home builder PulteGroup (PHM), have announced that sales and profits for 2021 won’t meet expectations. Investors will get a clearer picture of the supply chain issue when companies report their quarterly earnings this fall.<blockquote>供应链限制阻碍了公司满足销售预期的能力，而成本持续上升。从工业材料制造商PPG Industries（股票代码：PPG）到住宅建筑商PulteGroup(PHM)等公司都宣布2021年的销售额和利润将达不到预期。当公司今年秋季公布季度收益时，投资者将更清楚地了解供应链问题。</blockquote> “One question that’s going to start creeping in once we get to the third quarter is how much of the supply chain disruptions and inability to meet demand is going hit companies’ bottom lines,” says Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s becoming much more acute.”<blockquote>BMO资本市场首席投资策略师Yung Yu Ma表示：“一旦进入第三季度，一个问题将开始出现，那就是供应链中断和无法满足需求将在多大程度上影响公司的利润。”。“这种情况变得更加严重。”</blockquote> The other risk to profits that markets have largely ignored is higher corporate taxes. Goldman Sachs strategists say 2022 earnings per share on the S&amp;P 500 could fall roughly 5% with a corporate tax hike to 25% from the current 21%—and House Democrats recently proposed an increase to 26.5%. With aggregate 2022 analyst estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS at $217.95, therefore, EPS could fall to $207. At a current 21 times, the index could drop 5% on a corporate tax hike—assuming the forward earnings multiple remains the same.<blockquote>市场基本上忽视的另一个利润风险是更高的公司税。高盛策略师表示，如果公司税从目前的21%上调至25%，标普500 2022年每股收益可能会下降约5%，而众议院民主党人最近提议将税率上调至26.5%。因此，分析师对标普500 2022年每股收益的总体预期为217.95美元，每股收益可能会降至207美元。以目前的21倍计算，假设预期市盈率保持不变，该指数可能会因公司税上调而下跌5%。</blockquote> There’s a good chance it won’t. One major reason the S&amp;P 500’s average valuation is above its prepandemic level of 19 times—it currently trades at 20.4 times 12-month forward earnings—is because the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.31% from 1.8% before the pandemic. Lower bond yields make future profits more valuable.<blockquote>很有可能不会。标普500平均估值高于疫情前19倍水平（目前12个月预期市盈率为20.4倍）的一个主要原因是10年期国债收益率已从疫情前的1.8%降至1.31%。较低的债券收益率使未来的利润更有价值。</blockquote> There’s a good chance yields are heading higher. The Federal Reserve has recently been buying tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bonds a month, driving bond prices up and yields down. But the central bank is now signaling it will wind that program down as soon as this year to zero dollars within a few quarters, which means less money into bonds, lower prices, and higher yields. (We’ll learn more Wednesday when the Fed releases its monetary policy statement.) That catalyst could drive the 10-year Treasury yield back up to 1.8% by year-end and the S&amp;P 500’s multiple down to 19 times, writes Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.<blockquote>收益率很有可能会走高。美联储最近一直在每月购买数百亿美元的国债，推动债券价格上涨，收益率下降。但央行现在表示，最快将于今年在几个季度内将该计划缩减至零美元，这意味着投入债券的资金减少、价格下降和收益率上升。（周三美联储发布货币政策声明时我们将了解更多信息。）Mike Wilson写道，这一催化剂可能会推动10年期国债收益率在年底前回升至1.8%，标普500的市盈率降至19倍。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师。</blockquote> Combine the lower valuations with the drop in earnings estimates and the S&amp;P 500 could have a lot further to fall. If the index trades at 19 times 2022 earnings of $207, the S&amp;P 500 would trade at 3914, about 10% lower than its current level. If EPS is lower than that because of supply chain problems, the market could fall even harder. Wilson’s worst-case scenario estimate for the index is 3,700 by June, a 15% drop.<blockquote>将较低的估值与盈利预期的下降结合起来，标普500可能会进一步下跌。如果该指数的交易价格是2022年市盈率207美元的19倍，标普500的交易价格将为3914美元，比当前水平低约10%。如果由于供应链问题导致每股收益低于这一水平，市场可能会下跌得更厉害。威尔逊对该指数的最坏情况估计到6月份为3,700点，下降15%。</blockquote> That means there is still time for investors to play defense. Part of a potential correction would be driven by fears of slower economic growth—and that means investors should own stocks with earnings streams that are less sensitive to changes in economic demand, such as consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, and telecommunications. History bears that out—when the S&amp;P 500 drops 10%, going back to 1990, those five sectors return about 1%, on average, according to Stifel’s Bannister. “Defensives are a good place to hide if you’re in a September or October coalescing of risks,” says Bannister.<blockquote>这意味着投资者仍有时间进行防御。潜在调整的部分原因是对经济增长放缓的担忧，这意味着投资者应该持有盈利流对经济需求变化不太敏感的股票，例如必需消费品、医疗保健、公用事业、房地产和电信。历史证明了这一点——根据Stifel的Bannister的说法，从1990年开始，当标普500下跌10%时，这五个行业的平均回报率约为1%。班尼斯特表示：“如果你正处于九月或十月的风险集中时期，防御措施是一个很好的藏身之处。”</blockquote> Of course, there’s one more place investors can hide: cash. Not only does cash enable investors to load up on stocks when they dip, but if stock and Treasury prices fall, cash will hold its value save for the impact of inflation. The “least attractive asset is sometimes the best asset,” Bannister says.<blockquote>当然，投资者还有一个可以藏身的地方：现金。现金不仅使投资者能够在股票下跌时买入股票，而且如果股票和国债价格下跌，除了通货膨胀的影响外，现金将保持其价值。班尼斯特说，“最没有吸引力的资产有时是最好的资产”。</blockquote> Sometimes, it’s better to be safe than sorry.<blockquote>有时候，安全总比后悔好。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-correction-china-evergrande-51632171467?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-correction-china-evergrande-51632171467?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173746472","content_text":"The stock market tanked—and a correction may be in the offing. While China Evergrande is getting all the attention, the real problem might be risks to earnings and valuations.\nThe S&P 500 dropped 1.7% Monday, and the index is down 3.9% from its all-time high. That may just be the beginning, says Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief equity strategist, who calls for the S&P 500 to drop as much as 15% this year. “It’s the coalescing of multiple risks in the fourth quarter that cause us to be cautious through September and October,” Bannister says.\nWhile Evergrande gets the headlines, the bigger problem right now might be U.S. earnings. The companies in the S&P 500 are expected to earn $217.95 in 2022, up 9.4% from 2021, but there’s plenty of downside risk.\nSupply-chain constraints are hampering companies’ ability to meet sales expectations, while costs continue to rise. Companies from industrial-materials maker PPG Industries (ticker: PPG) to home builder PulteGroup (PHM), have announced that sales and profits for 2021 won’t meet expectations. Investors will get a clearer picture of the supply chain issue when companies report their quarterly earnings this fall.\n“One question that’s going to start creeping in once we get to the third quarter is how much of the supply chain disruptions and inability to meet demand is going hit companies’ bottom lines,” says Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s becoming much more acute.”\nThe other risk to profits that markets have largely ignored is higher corporate taxes. Goldman Sachs strategists say 2022 earnings per share on the S&P 500 could fall roughly 5% with a corporate tax hike to 25% from the current 21%—and House Democrats recently proposed an increase to 26.5%. With aggregate 2022 analyst estimates for S&P 500 EPS at $217.95, therefore, EPS could fall to $207. At a current 21 times, the index could drop 5% on a corporate tax hike—assuming the forward earnings multiple remains the same.\nThere’s a good chance it won’t. One major reason the S&P 500’s average valuation is above its prepandemic level of 19 times—it currently trades at 20.4 times 12-month forward earnings—is because the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.31% from 1.8% before the pandemic. Lower bond yields make future profits more valuable.\nThere’s a good chance yields are heading higher. The Federal Reserve has recently been buying tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bonds a month, driving bond prices up and yields down. But the central bank is now signaling it will wind that program down as soon as this year to zero dollars within a few quarters, which means less money into bonds, lower prices, and higher yields. (We’ll learn more Wednesday when the Fed releases its monetary policy statement.) That catalyst could drive the 10-year Treasury yield back up to 1.8% by year-end and the S&P 500’s multiple down to 19 times, writes Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley.\nCombine the lower valuations with the drop in earnings estimates and the S&P 500 could have a lot further to fall. If the index trades at 19 times 2022 earnings of $207, the S&P 500 would trade at 3914, about 10% lower than its current level. If EPS is lower than that because of supply chain problems, the market could fall even harder. Wilson’s worst-case scenario estimate for the index is 3,700 by June, a 15% drop.\nThat means there is still time for investors to play defense. Part of a potential correction would be driven by fears of slower economic growth—and that means investors should own stocks with earnings streams that are less sensitive to changes in economic demand, such as consumer staples, healthcare, utilities, real estate, and telecommunications. History bears that out—when the S&P 500 drops 10%, going back to 1990, those five sectors return about 1%, on average, according to Stifel’s Bannister. “Defensives are a good place to hide if you’re in a September or October coalescing of risks,” says Bannister.\nOf course, there’s one more place investors can hide: cash. Not only does cash enable investors to load up on stocks when they dip, but if stock and Treasury prices fall, cash will hold its value save for the impact of inflation. The “least attractive asset is sometimes the best asset,” Bannister says.\nSometimes, it’s better to be safe than sorry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2576,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Why the Stock Market Tanked Monday—and What to Do About It<blockquote>为什么股市周一暴跌——以及该怎么办</blockquote>

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