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2021-09-22

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Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice. Inv

Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>

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However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.<blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市“更有可能”下跌20%。然而，在周二接受CNBC采访时，这位策略师坚称，10%仍然是他的“基本情况”情景，并将标普500指数年底的预测维持在4,000点左右。</blockquote> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.<blockquote>从近期峰值下跌至少20%是被广泛接受的熊市定义，而下跌10%则定义回调。</blockquote> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”<blockquote>他推测，美联储开始努力“取消货币宽松以应对经济过热”，这将导致市场下跌10%。</blockquote> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.<blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月会议，并发布更新的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.<blockquote>在周一暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日面临抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大3333，-0.44%可能出现债务违约，从而可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.<blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数(-0.08%)和纳斯达克综合指数(+0.22%)创下5月12日以来的最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数(-0.15%)创下7月19日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，标普500在大约220个交易日中没有从峰值回调5%，这是自2016年以来最长的一次，当时市场有404个交易日没有从峰值到低谷下跌至少5%。</blockquote> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.<blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较9月2日收盘纪录下跌约4%，道琼斯指数较8月16日收盘纪录下跌4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较9月7日近期高点下跌4.3%。</blockquote> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.<blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500跌破50日均线，发生在周五，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.<blockquote>威尔逊在接受CNBC采访时表示：“嗯，我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终确实‘剔除’了50日移动平均线……而且它昨天猛烈突破了……我认为你必须注意这一点。”</blockquote> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.<blockquote>“我尊重市场，我建议其他人尊重市场……这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战，”威尔逊说。</blockquote> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.<blockquote>“我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，”他对投资者在这个欢欣鼓舞的大流行复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-22 17:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nMorgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.<blockquote>摩根士丹利的迈克尔·威尔逊认为牛市将以火告终，尽管它也可能以冰告终。</blockquote> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire &amp; Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.<blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特·弗罗斯特(Robert Frost)诗歌《火与冰》中的意象表示，他认为美国企业的盈利修正“和更高频率的宏观数据”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润压力”，他预测这可能会导致股价下跌20%，他在9月20日的一份研究报告中将这一近期结果描述为投资者的“Ice”。</blockquote> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.<blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市“更有可能”下跌20%。然而，在周二接受CNBC采访时，这位策略师坚称，10%仍然是他的“基本情况”情景，并将标普500指数年底的预测维持在4,000点左右。</blockquote> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.<blockquote>从近期峰值下跌至少20%是被广泛接受的熊市定义，而下跌10%则定义回调。</blockquote> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”<blockquote>他推测，美联储开始努力“取消货币宽松以应对经济过热”，这将导致市场下跌10%。</blockquote> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.<blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月会议，并发布更新的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.<blockquote>在周一暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日面临抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大3333，-0.44%可能出现债务违约，从而可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.<blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数(-0.08%)和纳斯达克综合指数(+0.22%)创下5月12日以来的最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数(-0.15%)创下7月19日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，标普500在大约220个交易日中没有从峰值回调5%，这是自2016年以来最长的一次，当时市场有404个交易日没有从峰值到低谷下跌至少5%。</blockquote> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.<blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较9月2日收盘纪录下跌约4%，道琼斯指数较8月16日收盘纪录下跌4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较9月7日近期高点下跌4.3%。</blockquote> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.<blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500跌破50日均线，发生在周五，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.<blockquote>威尔逊在接受CNBC采访时表示：“嗯，我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终确实‘剔除’了50日移动平均线……而且它昨天猛烈突破了……我认为你必须注意这一点。”</blockquote> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.<blockquote>“我尊重市场，我建议其他人尊重市场……这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战，”威尔逊说。</blockquote> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.<blockquote>“我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，”他对投资者在这个欢欣鼓舞的大流行复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118101852","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.\nWilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2744,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}