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2021-11-16

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Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote>

(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cauti

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote>

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Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“事实证明，我们的标普500目标价太低，也就是错误的。”尽管如此，“随着金融状况收紧和盈利增长放缓，以当前价格计算，广泛指数的12个月风险/回报看起来没有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> In his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&amp;P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.</p><p><blockquote>在他的基本情景中，威尔逊预计该基准指数将在未来12个月内下滑至4,400点，这意味着该指数较周五收盘价4,683点下跌6%。虽然标普500的利润预计将扩大扩张，到2023年达到每股245美元，但他警告说，增长放缓和美联储刺激措施的退出可能会给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&amp;P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&amp;P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，Wilson呼吁标普500在2021年底达到3,900人。反思自己的预测，威尔逊承认他低估了美国企业界的盈利能力以及投资者支付股票的意愿。标普500公司2021年的利润有望超出他的预期7%。该指数的市盈率为21倍，比他的预期高出两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have rallied this year, with the S&amp;P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 1995.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市上涨，标普500上涨25%，突破了华尔街策略师在彭博社1月份调查中设想的最高年终目标。一路走来，该指数已创下65个历史新高，有望成为有史以来第二高的年度记录，仅次于1995年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-16 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cautious stance even while issuing a mea culpa for his bearish 2021 prediction.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——华尔街最持怀疑态度的股市策略师之一坚持谨慎立场，尽管他为2021年的悲观预测道歉。</blockquote></p><p> “Our S&amp;P 500 price targets proved to be too low -- i.e., wrong,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“事实证明，我们的标普500目标价太低，也就是错误的。”尽管如此，“随着金融状况收紧和盈利增长放缓，以当前价格计算，广泛指数的12个月风险/回报看起来没有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> In his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&amp;P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.</p><p><blockquote>在他的基本情景中，威尔逊预计该基准指数将在未来12个月内下滑至4,400点，这意味着该指数较周五收盘价4,683点下跌6%。虽然标普500的利润预计将扩大扩张，到2023年达到每股245美元，但他警告说，增长放缓和美联储刺激措施的退出可能会给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&amp;P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&amp;P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，Wilson呼吁标普500在2021年底达到3,900人。反思自己的预测，威尔逊承认他低估了美国企业界的盈利能力以及投资者支付股票的意愿。标普500公司2021年的利润有望超出他的预期7%。该指数的市盈率为21倍，比他的预期高出两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have rallied this year, with the S&amp;P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 1995.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市上涨，标普500上涨25%，突破了华尔街策略师在彭博社1月份调查中设想的最高年终目标。一路走来，该指数已创下65个历史新高，有望成为有史以来第二高的年度记录，仅次于1995年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-wrong-still-164926102.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-wrong-still-164926102.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172616795","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cautious stance even while issuing a mea culpa for his bearish 2021 prediction.\n“Our S&P 500 price targets proved to be too low -- i.e., wrong,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”\nIn his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.\nAt the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.\nStocks have rallied this year, with the S&P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 1995.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}