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2021-11-22

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Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>

Summary Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir

Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>

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Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li> <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li> <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:<blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li> <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li> <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.<blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote> Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results<blockquote>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</blockquote> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?<blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.<blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.<blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.<blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.<blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.<blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.<blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.<blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote> The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger<blockquote>牛市论点越来越强</blockquote> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.<blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.<blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.<blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.<blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.<blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return<blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:<blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.<blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).<blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.<blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Assumptions:<blockquote>假设：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Results:<blockquote>结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model<blockquote>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</blockquote> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.<blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.<blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:<blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model<blockquote>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</blockquote> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.<blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote> Looking At The Technical Picture<blockquote>看技术图</blockquote> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:<blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li> <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.<blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.<blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote> Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23<blockquote>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi<blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-11-17 22:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.</li> <li>Palantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li> <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li> <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:<blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li> <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li> <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.<blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote> Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results<blockquote>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</blockquote> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?<blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.<blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.<blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.<blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.<blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.<blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.<blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.<blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote> The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger<blockquote>牛市论点越来越强</blockquote> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.<blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.<blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.<blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</blockquote> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.<blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.<blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return<blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:<blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.<blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).<blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.<blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Assumptions:<blockquote>假设：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Results:<blockquote>结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model<blockquote>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</blockquote> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.<blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.<blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:<blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model<blockquote>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</blockquote> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.<blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote> Looking At The Technical Picture<blockquote>看技术图</blockquote> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:<blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li> <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.<blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> Concluding Thoughts<blockquote>结束语</blockquote> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.<blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote> Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23<blockquote>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi<blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176632260","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.\nPalantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.\nThe stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.\nI rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nPalantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.\nAs you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:\n\nPalantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla\nPalantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World\nPalantir Stock: Building An Army\n\nBefore we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.\nBreaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results\nIn Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAfter registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nIn contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nOn the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.\n\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.\nSince its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.\nThe Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger\nIn Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWith Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAt the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nA particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.\nSource: YCharts\nAs Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAccording to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.\nTo calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nHere are the expected returns for Palantir:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\nLooking At The Technical Picture\nIn late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:\n\nPalantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.\nAs discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.\n\nSource:Palantir Stock: Building An Army\nSince then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.\nSource: YCharts\nConcluding Thoughts\nFrom a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23\nThis article was written by Ahan Vashi","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}