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2021-11-17

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Will gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale<blockquote>2022年汽油价格会下降吗？这取决于OPEC和美国页岩</blockquote>

Whether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to incre

Will gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale<blockquote>2022年汽油价格会下降吗？这取决于OPEC和美国页岩</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":878965099,"tweetId":"878965099","gmtCreate":1637140063872,"gmtModify":1637140121078,"author":{"id":3576208017210282,"idStr":"3576208017210282","authorId":3576208017210282,"authorIdStr":"3576208017210282","name":"Yfkoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40cd23b10590b9d5248d7b4cda7ab667","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Interesting!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878965099","repostId":1160485320,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160485320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637136999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160485320?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 16:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale<blockquote>2022年汽油价格会下降吗？这取决于OPEC和美国页岩</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160485320","media":"Reuters","summary":"Whether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to incre","content":"Whether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to increase oil output in the wake of the pandemic: OPEC and its allies and U.S. shale firms.<blockquote>2022年燃油泵价格是否会下跌取决于在疫情爆发后努力增加石油产量的两组生产商：欧佩克及其盟友和美国页岩油公司。</blockquote> The global oil industry's slow response to the surging demand in 2021 has contributed to soaring energy costs and inflationary pressures worldwide. As the economy recovers and populations resume road, rail and air travel, global oil demand has nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>全球石油行业对2021年激增的需求反应迟缓，导致全球能源成本飙升和通胀压力。随着经济复苏和人口恢复公路、铁路和航空旅行，全球石油需求几乎已反弹至疫情前的水平。</blockquote> Supply has not recovered so fast - so to keep up with demand, the industry is burning through oil kept in storage.<blockquote>供应没有恢复得那么快——因此为了满足需求，该行业正在燃烧储存的石油。</blockquote> Benchmark oil prices have surged to multi-year highs over $86 a barrel, and some economists warn crude could surpass $100 a barrel, threatening the recovery.<blockquote>基准油价已飙升至每桶86美元以上的多年高点，一些经济学家警告称，原油价格可能超过每桶100美元，威胁经济复苏。</blockquote> The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the roughly 100 million barrels per day (bpd) market to flip into surplus in the first quarter next year, and for supply to outpace demand by 1.1 million bpd, taking some heat out of prices. That oversupply could rise to 2.2 million bpd in the second quarter, the energy watchdog forecasts.<blockquote>国际能源署(IEA)预计，明年第一季度约1亿桶/日的市场将转为过剩，供应将超过需求110万桶/日，从而给价格带来一定压力。能源监管机构预测，第二季度供应过剩可能升至220万桶/日。</blockquote> Those projections, however, depend on OPEC and its allies increasing output at 400,000 bpd per month, as the group known as OPEC+ slowly unwinds cuts it was forced to make during the pandemic.<blockquote>然而，这些预测取决于欧佩克及其盟友以每月40万桶/日的速度增加产量，因为这个被称为欧佩克+的组织正在慢慢取消其在大流行期间被迫进行的减产。</blockquote> But the IEA's monthly report on Tuesday showed OPEC+ is nowhere near its targets: it produced about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) below those levels in September and October. That is largely due to top African producers Nigeria and Angola, whose maintenance and investment problems are likely to weigh on output next year.<blockquote>但IEA周二的月度报告显示，OPEC+远未达到其目标：9月和10月的日产量比这些水平低约70万桶。这主要是由于非洲最大的生产国尼日利亚和安哥拉，它们的维护和投资问题可能会影响明年的产量。</blockquote> If that underproduction continues, it could wipe out much of the surplus in the first quarter and keep markets tight for longer. The IEA hiked its 2022 forecast for average prices to $79.40 a barrel, even as it said higher supply could give some reprieve.<blockquote>如果产量不足持续下去，第一季度的大部分盈余可能会消失，并使市场在更长时间内保持紧张。IEA将2022年平均价格预测上调至每桶79.40美元，尽管它表示供应增加可能会带来一些缓解。</blockquote> Commodities trading giant Trafigura warned on Tuesday of a \"very, very tight oil market\" as declining production investment, partly due to an industry transition to greener energy, adds to price pressure.<blockquote>大宗商品交易巨头托克周二警告称，“石油市场非常非常紧张”，部分由于行业向绿色能源转型，生产投资下降加剧了价格压力。</blockquote> The United States and other big energy consumers have asked OPEC+ to increase output more quickly, but the group has refused due to concern coronavirus may again sap demand during the northern winter.<blockquote>美国和其他大型能源消费国要求欧佩克+更快地增加产量，但该组织拒绝了，因为担心冠状病毒可能会再次削弱北方冬季的需求。</blockquote> The market is now looking to the U.S. shale industry, which has provided most of the non-OPEC output increase over the past decade.<blockquote>市场现在将目光投向了美国页岩油行业，该行业在过去十年中为非欧佩克国家提供了大部分产量增长。</blockquote> \"There's one element where you could probably further increase capacity, which is shale in the U.S.,\" said Marco Dunand, chief executive of merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, at the Reuters Commodity Trading Summit this week.<blockquote>merchant Mercuria Energy Trading首席执行官Marco Dunand本周在路透社大宗商品交易峰会上表示：“有一个因素可能会进一步增加产能，那就是美国的页岩油。”</blockquote> The IEA expects a massive 480,000 bpd rise in U.S. crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) output in the second quarter of 2022, and by 1.1 million bpd for all of 2022.<blockquote>IEA预计，2022年第二季度美国原油和液化天然气(NGL)产量将大幅增加48万桶/日，2022年全年将增加110万桶/日。</blockquote> The U.S. Energy Information Administration's near-term expectations are lower, with overall crude and NGLs output set to rise by 220,000 in the second quarter. The EIA sees U.S. output accelerating in the second half of 2022, for a 1.25 million bpd increase in crude and NGLs for the year.<blockquote>美国能源信息署的近期预期较低，第二季度原油和液化天然气总产量将增加22万。EIA预计美国产量将在2022年下半年加速，全年原油和液化天然气产量将增加125万桶/日。</blockquote> However, shale producers have responded more slowly than during previous price rises. Investors and shareholders have demanded greater capital discipline from the industry than in previous boom-bust cycles, and are punishing firms that invest in capacity and rewarding those that pay dividends and reduce debt.<blockquote>然而，页岩油生产商的反应比以往价格上涨期间要慢。投资者和股东要求该行业实行比以往繁荣-萧条周期更严格的资本纪律，并惩罚投资产能的公司，奖励支付股息和减少债务的公司。</blockquote> \"We're at $83 a barrel on Brent, and we see no big surge in rig counts,\" said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, at the Reuters summit.<blockquote>高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeffrey Currie在路透社峰会上表示：“布伦特原油价格为每桶83美元，我们认为钻井数量不会大幅增加。”</blockquote> Shale companies are grappling with labor and equipment shortages, while others say demand is still too uncertain to boost output as the industry recovers from the pandemic-induced recession.<blockquote>页岩油公司正在努力应对劳动力和设备短缺的问题，而其他人则表示，随着该行业从大流行引发的衰退中复苏，需求仍然太不确定，无法提高产量。</blockquote> \"It's still pretty fragile,\" said William Berry, chief executive at Continental Resources, in a recent earnings call. \"I don't think it's appropriate for anyone in the industry to be overproducing into that potentially fragile oversupplied market.\"<blockquote>大陆资源公司首席执行官威廉·贝里在最近的财报看涨期权上表示：“它仍然相当脆弱。”“我认为业内任何人在这个潜在脆弱的供应过剩市场上过度生产都是不合适的。”</blockquote> LATAM, CANADA RAISE OUTPUT<blockquote>拉美、加拿大提高产量</blockquote> Non-OPEC Latin American producers are increasing output. Guyana, a relative newcomer on the global oil stage, is slated to start producing 220,000 bpd of extra capacity at an Exxon-run floating production system early next year.<blockquote>非OPEC拉丁美洲产油国正在增加产量。圭亚那是全球石油舞台上相对较新的国家，预计明年初将开始在埃克森美孚运营的浮式生产系统中额外生产22万桶/日的产能。</blockquote> Brazil's state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA is ramping up its 180,000 bpd floating platform Carioca, which in August started production at Sepia deep-water field in the Santos Basin.<blockquote>巴西国营Petroleo Brasileiro SA正在扩大其日产180,000桶的浮动平台Carioca，该平台于8月在桑托斯盆地的Sepia深水油田开始生产。</blockquote> Venezuela has seen its exports increase after receiving Iranian condensate, but it is unclear if that can be sustained, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute.<blockquote>莱斯大学贝克研究所拉丁美洲能源项目主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪表示，委内瑞拉在接受伊朗凝析油后出口有所增加，但目前尚不清楚这种情况能否持续。</blockquote> Canadian supply could rise by roughly 100,000 bpd in the first quarter, said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, but oil companies in the world's fourth-largest producer are also restraining output.<blockquote>咨询公司Wood Mackenzie副总裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示，加拿大第一季度的供应量可能会增加约10万桶/日，但这个全球第四大生产国的石油公司也在限制产量。</blockquote> Total oil supply should reach 99.8 million bpd in the first quarter of 2022, surpassing demand estimated at 98.9 million bpd, said Hittle.<blockquote>Hittle表示，2022年第一季度石油供应总量应达到9980万桶/日，超过预计的9890万桶/日的需求。</blockquote> But energy consultancy FGE warned the market supply-demand balance may not change quickly with developed countries' inventories at six-year lows.<blockquote>但能源咨询机构FGE警告称，由于发达国家库存处于六年低点，市场供需平衡可能不会迅速改变。</blockquote> \"Although prices will probably trend down from last month’s peak, the current low inventory position sustains the risk of prices spiking higher in the next few months,\" FGE said.<blockquote>FGE表示：“尽管价格可能会从上个月的峰值下降，但目前的低库存状况维持了未来几个月价格飙升的风险。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale<blockquote>2022年汽油价格会下降吗？这取决于OPEC和美国页岩</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill gasoline prices drop in 2022? It depends on OPEC and U.S. shale<blockquote>2022年汽油价格会下降吗？这取决于OPEC和美国页岩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-11-17 16:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to increase oil output in the wake of the pandemic: OPEC and its allies and U.S. shale firms.<blockquote>2022年燃油泵价格是否会下跌取决于在疫情爆发后努力增加石油产量的两组生产商：欧佩克及其盟友和美国页岩油公司。</blockquote> The global oil industry's slow response to the surging demand in 2021 has contributed to soaring energy costs and inflationary pressures worldwide. As the economy recovers and populations resume road, rail and air travel, global oil demand has nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>全球石油行业对2021年激增的需求反应迟缓，导致全球能源成本飙升和通胀压力。随着经济复苏和人口恢复公路、铁路和航空旅行，全球石油需求几乎已反弹至疫情前的水平。</blockquote> Supply has not recovered so fast - so to keep up with demand, the industry is burning through oil kept in storage.<blockquote>供应没有恢复得那么快——因此为了满足需求，该行业正在燃烧储存的石油。</blockquote> Benchmark oil prices have surged to multi-year highs over $86 a barrel, and some economists warn crude could surpass $100 a barrel, threatening the recovery.<blockquote>基准油价已飙升至每桶86美元以上的多年高点，一些经济学家警告称，原油价格可能超过每桶100美元，威胁经济复苏。</blockquote> The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the roughly 100 million barrels per day (bpd) market to flip into surplus in the first quarter next year, and for supply to outpace demand by 1.1 million bpd, taking some heat out of prices. That oversupply could rise to 2.2 million bpd in the second quarter, the energy watchdog forecasts.<blockquote>国际能源署(IEA)预计，明年第一季度约1亿桶/日的市场将转为过剩，供应将超过需求110万桶/日，从而给价格带来一定压力。能源监管机构预测，第二季度供应过剩可能升至220万桶/日。</blockquote> Those projections, however, depend on OPEC and its allies increasing output at 400,000 bpd per month, as the group known as OPEC+ slowly unwinds cuts it was forced to make during the pandemic.<blockquote>然而，这些预测取决于欧佩克及其盟友以每月40万桶/日的速度增加产量，因为这个被称为欧佩克+的组织正在慢慢取消其在大流行期间被迫进行的减产。</blockquote> But the IEA's monthly report on Tuesday showed OPEC+ is nowhere near its targets: it produced about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) below those levels in September and October. That is largely due to top African producers Nigeria and Angola, whose maintenance and investment problems are likely to weigh on output next year.<blockquote>但IEA周二的月度报告显示，OPEC+远未达到其目标：9月和10月的日产量比这些水平低约70万桶。这主要是由于非洲最大的生产国尼日利亚和安哥拉，它们的维护和投资问题可能会影响明年的产量。</blockquote> If that underproduction continues, it could wipe out much of the surplus in the first quarter and keep markets tight for longer. The IEA hiked its 2022 forecast for average prices to $79.40 a barrel, even as it said higher supply could give some reprieve.<blockquote>如果产量不足持续下去，第一季度的大部分盈余可能会消失，并使市场在更长时间内保持紧张。IEA将2022年平均价格预测上调至每桶79.40美元，尽管它表示供应增加可能会带来一些缓解。</blockquote> Commodities trading giant Trafigura warned on Tuesday of a \"very, very tight oil market\" as declining production investment, partly due to an industry transition to greener energy, adds to price pressure.<blockquote>大宗商品交易巨头托克周二警告称，“石油市场非常非常紧张”，部分由于行业向绿色能源转型，生产投资下降加剧了价格压力。</blockquote> The United States and other big energy consumers have asked OPEC+ to increase output more quickly, but the group has refused due to concern coronavirus may again sap demand during the northern winter.<blockquote>美国和其他大型能源消费国要求欧佩克+更快地增加产量，但该组织拒绝了，因为担心冠状病毒可能会再次削弱北方冬季的需求。</blockquote> The market is now looking to the U.S. shale industry, which has provided most of the non-OPEC output increase over the past decade.<blockquote>市场现在将目光投向了美国页岩油行业，该行业在过去十年中为非欧佩克国家提供了大部分产量增长。</blockquote> \"There's one element where you could probably further increase capacity, which is shale in the U.S.,\" said Marco Dunand, chief executive of merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, at the Reuters Commodity Trading Summit this week.<blockquote>merchant Mercuria Energy Trading首席执行官Marco Dunand本周在路透社大宗商品交易峰会上表示：“有一个因素可能会进一步增加产能，那就是美国的页岩油。”</blockquote> The IEA expects a massive 480,000 bpd rise in U.S. crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) output in the second quarter of 2022, and by 1.1 million bpd for all of 2022.<blockquote>IEA预计，2022年第二季度美国原油和液化天然气(NGL)产量将大幅增加48万桶/日，2022年全年将增加110万桶/日。</blockquote> The U.S. Energy Information Administration's near-term expectations are lower, with overall crude and NGLs output set to rise by 220,000 in the second quarter. The EIA sees U.S. output accelerating in the second half of 2022, for a 1.25 million bpd increase in crude and NGLs for the year.<blockquote>美国能源信息署的近期预期较低，第二季度原油和液化天然气总产量将增加22万。EIA预计美国产量将在2022年下半年加速，全年原油和液化天然气产量将增加125万桶/日。</blockquote> However, shale producers have responded more slowly than during previous price rises. Investors and shareholders have demanded greater capital discipline from the industry than in previous boom-bust cycles, and are punishing firms that invest in capacity and rewarding those that pay dividends and reduce debt.<blockquote>然而，页岩油生产商的反应比以往价格上涨期间要慢。投资者和股东要求该行业实行比以往繁荣-萧条周期更严格的资本纪律，并惩罚投资产能的公司，奖励支付股息和减少债务的公司。</blockquote> \"We're at $83 a barrel on Brent, and we see no big surge in rig counts,\" said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, at the Reuters summit.<blockquote>高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeffrey Currie在路透社峰会上表示：“布伦特原油价格为每桶83美元，我们认为钻井数量不会大幅增加。”</blockquote> Shale companies are grappling with labor and equipment shortages, while others say demand is still too uncertain to boost output as the industry recovers from the pandemic-induced recession.<blockquote>页岩油公司正在努力应对劳动力和设备短缺的问题，而其他人则表示，随着该行业从大流行引发的衰退中复苏，需求仍然太不确定，无法提高产量。</blockquote> \"It's still pretty fragile,\" said William Berry, chief executive at Continental Resources, in a recent earnings call. \"I don't think it's appropriate for anyone in the industry to be overproducing into that potentially fragile oversupplied market.\"<blockquote>大陆资源公司首席执行官威廉·贝里在最近的财报看涨期权上表示：“它仍然相当脆弱。”“我认为业内任何人在这个潜在脆弱的供应过剩市场上过度生产都是不合适的。”</blockquote> LATAM, CANADA RAISE OUTPUT<blockquote>拉美、加拿大提高产量</blockquote> Non-OPEC Latin American producers are increasing output. Guyana, a relative newcomer on the global oil stage, is slated to start producing 220,000 bpd of extra capacity at an Exxon-run floating production system early next year.<blockquote>非OPEC拉丁美洲产油国正在增加产量。圭亚那是全球石油舞台上相对较新的国家，预计明年初将开始在埃克森美孚运营的浮式生产系统中额外生产22万桶/日的产能。</blockquote> Brazil's state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA is ramping up its 180,000 bpd floating platform Carioca, which in August started production at Sepia deep-water field in the Santos Basin.<blockquote>巴西国营Petroleo Brasileiro SA正在扩大其日产180,000桶的浮动平台Carioca，该平台于8月在桑托斯盆地的Sepia深水油田开始生产。</blockquote> Venezuela has seen its exports increase after receiving Iranian condensate, but it is unclear if that can be sustained, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute.<blockquote>莱斯大学贝克研究所拉丁美洲能源项目主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪表示，委内瑞拉在接受伊朗凝析油后出口有所增加，但目前尚不清楚这种情况能否持续。</blockquote> Canadian supply could rise by roughly 100,000 bpd in the first quarter, said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, but oil companies in the world's fourth-largest producer are also restraining output.<blockquote>咨询公司Wood Mackenzie副总裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示，加拿大第一季度的供应量可能会增加约10万桶/日，但这个全球第四大生产国的石油公司也在限制产量。</blockquote> Total oil supply should reach 99.8 million bpd in the first quarter of 2022, surpassing demand estimated at 98.9 million bpd, said Hittle.<blockquote>Hittle表示，2022年第一季度石油供应总量应达到9980万桶/日，超过预计的9890万桶/日的需求。</blockquote> But energy consultancy FGE warned the market supply-demand balance may not change quickly with developed countries' inventories at six-year lows.<blockquote>但能源咨询机构FGE警告称，由于发达国家库存处于六年低点，市场供需平衡可能不会迅速改变。</blockquote> \"Although prices will probably trend down from last month’s peak, the current low inventory position sustains the risk of prices spiking higher in the next few months,\" FGE said.<blockquote>FGE表示：“尽管价格可能会从上个月的峰值下降，但目前的低库存状况维持了未来几个月价格飙升的风险。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-gasoline-prices-drop-2022-061034980.html\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-gasoline-prices-drop-2022-061034980.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160485320","content_text":"Whether fuel pump prices fall in 2022 depends on two groups of producers who are struggling to increase oil output in the wake of the pandemic: OPEC and its allies and U.S. shale firms.\nThe global oil industry's slow response to the surging demand in 2021 has contributed to soaring energy costs and inflationary pressures worldwide. As the economy recovers and populations resume road, rail and air travel, global oil demand has nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.\nSupply has not recovered so fast - so to keep up with demand, the industry is burning through oil kept in storage.\nBenchmark oil prices have surged to multi-year highs over $86 a barrel, and some economists warn crude could surpass $100 a barrel, threatening the recovery.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the roughly 100 million barrels per day (bpd) market to flip into surplus in the first quarter next year, and for supply to outpace demand by 1.1 million bpd, taking some heat out of prices. That oversupply could rise to 2.2 million bpd in the second quarter, the energy watchdog forecasts.\nThose projections, however, depend on OPEC and its allies increasing output at 400,000 bpd per month, as the group known as OPEC+ slowly unwinds cuts it was forced to make during the pandemic.\nBut the IEA's monthly report on Tuesday showed OPEC+ is nowhere near its targets: it produced about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) below those levels in September and October. That is largely due to top African producers Nigeria and Angola, whose maintenance and investment problems are likely to weigh on output next year.\nIf that underproduction continues, it could wipe out much of the surplus in the first quarter and keep markets tight for longer. The IEA hiked its 2022 forecast for average prices to $79.40 a barrel, even as it said higher supply could give some reprieve.\nCommodities trading giant Trafigura warned on Tuesday of a \"very, very tight oil market\" as declining production investment, partly due to an industry transition to greener energy, adds to price pressure.\nThe United States and other big energy consumers have asked OPEC+ to increase output more quickly, but the group has refused due to concern coronavirus may again sap demand during the northern winter.\nThe market is now looking to the U.S. shale industry, which has provided most of the non-OPEC output increase over the past decade.\n\"There's one element where you could probably further increase capacity, which is shale in the U.S.,\" said Marco Dunand, chief executive of merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, at the Reuters Commodity Trading Summit this week.\nThe IEA expects a massive 480,000 bpd rise in U.S. crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) output in the second quarter of 2022, and by 1.1 million bpd for all of 2022.\nThe U.S. Energy Information Administration's near-term expectations are lower, with overall crude and NGLs output set to rise by 220,000 in the second quarter. The EIA sees U.S. output accelerating in the second half of 2022, for a 1.25 million bpd increase in crude and NGLs for the year.\nHowever, shale producers have responded more slowly than during previous price rises. Investors and shareholders have demanded greater capital discipline from the industry than in previous boom-bust cycles, and are punishing firms that invest in capacity and rewarding those that pay dividends and reduce debt.\n\"We're at $83 a barrel on Brent, and we see no big surge in rig counts,\" said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, at the Reuters summit.\nShale companies are grappling with labor and equipment shortages, while others say demand is still too uncertain to boost output as the industry recovers from the pandemic-induced recession.\n\"It's still pretty fragile,\" said William Berry, chief executive at Continental Resources, in a recent earnings call. \"I don't think it's appropriate for anyone in the industry to be overproducing into that potentially fragile oversupplied market.\"\nLATAM, CANADA RAISE OUTPUT\nNon-OPEC Latin American producers are increasing output. Guyana, a relative newcomer on the global oil stage, is slated to start producing 220,000 bpd of extra capacity at an Exxon-run floating production system early next year.\nBrazil's state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA is ramping up its 180,000 bpd floating platform Carioca, which in August started production at Sepia deep-water field in the Santos Basin.\nVenezuela has seen its exports increase after receiving Iranian condensate, but it is unclear if that can be sustained, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute.\nCanadian supply could rise by roughly 100,000 bpd in the first quarter, said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, but oil companies in the world's fourth-largest producer are also restraining output.\nTotal oil supply should reach 99.8 million bpd in the first quarter of 2022, surpassing demand estimated at 98.9 million bpd, said Hittle.\nBut energy consultancy FGE warned the market supply-demand balance may not change quickly with developed countries' inventories at six-year lows.\n\"Although prices will probably trend down from last month’s peak, the current low inventory position sustains the risk of prices spiking higher in the next few months,\" FGE said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}