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2021-11-12

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It’s bizarro world in the auto industry, again<blockquote>汽车行业又是一个奇异的世界</blockquote>

It’s not just Tesla. Electric-vehicle startup Rivian (RIVN) has roared into public markets with a ki

It’s bizarro world in the auto industry, again<blockquote>汽车行业又是一个奇异的世界</blockquote>

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That’s 32% more than General Motors (GM) is worth, and 47% more than Ford (F). Rivian has never sold a vehicle until this year. GM sells around 7 million vehicles per year; Ford, 4 million.<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司Rivian(RIVN)以一次杀手级的公开募股和1160亿美元的市值大举进军公开市场。这比通用汽车(GM)的价值高出32%，比福特(F)高出47%。Rivian直到今年才售出一辆汽车。通用汽车每年销售约700万辆汽车；福特，400万。</blockquote> If you add up the market value of Tesla (TSLA),Rivian, and 5 other startups including Lucid (LCID), Nikola (NKLA), Fisker (FSR), Lordstown Motors (RIDE) and Workhorse (WKHS), their combined capitalization is nearly $1.3 trillion. Nine of the world’s biggest automakers—GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler-Benz—are only worth $845 billion. So those 9 giant automakers are worth 34% less than 7 fledgling EV manufacturers. As for sales, the established manufacturers outsell the EV upstarts 100 to 1.<blockquote>如果你把特斯拉(TSLA)、Rivian以及Lucid(LCID)、Nikola(NKLA)、Fisker(FSR)、Lordstown Motors(RIDE)和Workhorse(WKHS)等其他5家初创公司的市值加起来，它们的总市值接近1.3万亿美元。全球最大的九家汽车制造商——通用汽车、福特、Stellantis、丰田、日产、本田、大众、宝马和戴姆勒-奔驰——的价值仅为8450亿美元。因此，这9家大型汽车制造商的市值比7家新兴电动汽车制造商低34%。就销量而言，老牌制造商的销量是电动汽车新贵的100比1。</blockquote> Does this make sense? Traders have grappled with Tesla’s stratospheric valuation for years. Many investing pros who bet that Tesla was overvalued&nbsp;crashed and burnedas the stock soared beyond almost anybody’s best guess. The market now seems to view&nbsp;Rivian&nbsp;as a Tesla-in-the-making, especially since it already has backing from Amazon and Ford. By focusing on sport pickups and delivery vans, Rivian has one foot in consumer vehicles and the other in commercial applications, a shrewd mix that lets the company spread its bets on a trend that is already a revolution in ground transportation.<blockquote>这有意义吗？多年来，交易员一直在努力应对特斯拉过高的估值。许多押注特斯拉被高估的投资专业人士在该股飙升超出几乎所有人的最佳猜测时崩溃并烧毁。市场现在似乎将Rivian视为正在形成的特斯拉，尤其是因为它已经获得了Amazon和Ford的支持。通过专注于运动型皮卡和送货车，Rivian一只脚涉足消费汽车，另一只脚涉足商业应用，这种精明的组合使该公司能够将赌注分散在已经是地面交通革命的趋势上。</blockquote> While legacy automakers and EV startups both build cars, the market treats them quite differently. Here’s why EV makers earn such rich valuations compared with traditional car companies:<blockquote>虽然传统汽车制造商和电动汽车初创公司都生产汽车，但市场对待它们的方式却截然不同。这就是电动汽车制造商与传统汽车公司相比获得如此丰厚估值的原因：</blockquote> Growth.In market terms, investors consider&nbsp;EV new&nbsp;comers&nbsp;such as Tesla and Rivian to be growth and technology companies with tons of upside potential. Traditional automakers are industrial concerns capable of incremental growth, at best. While virtually every big automaker is developing EV technology, the old ones won’t attain nearly the same rapid growth as the new ones will. That’s because they have massive investments in internal-combustion engines, or ICE—a.k.a. gas-and diesel-powered cars—that will decline as the new EV technology ramps up.<blockquote>增长。从市场角度来看，投资者认为特斯拉和Rivian等电动汽车新来者是具有巨大上涨潜力的成长型和科技公司。传统汽车制造商充其量是能够实现增量增长的工业企业。虽然几乎每个大型汽车制造商都在开发电动汽车技术，但旧的汽车制造商不会像新的汽车制造商那样获得几乎相同的快速增长。这是因为他们在内燃机（ICE）上进行了大量投资。汽油和柴油动力汽车——随着新电动汽车技术的发展，这一数字将会下降。</blockquote> GM, for instance, sold 202,000 EVs in 2020, which was third most of any automaker, behind Tesla and Volkswagen. But for GM the technology of the future represented just 3% of all sales. The other 97% were legacy ICE vehicles likely to decline as a share of the overall market for years to come. At Tesla, 100% of sales were EVs, with no legacy business to manage.<blockquote>例如，通用汽车在2020年售出了202,000辆电动汽车，在所有汽车制造商中排名第三，仅次于特斯拉和大众。但对于通用汽车来说，未来技术仅占总销售额的3%。另外97%是传统内燃机汽车，未来几年在整体市场的份额可能会下降。在特斯拉，100%的销售额是电动汽车，没有遗留业务需要管理。</blockquote> The new technology is where the growth is. Tesla’s revenue growth rate during the last two years has been 39%, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ. GM’s has been a negative 5%. Pandemic disruptions have been a factor in both company’s performance, but the trend was the same before the pandemic. GM still makes a lot of money selling high-margin pickups and SUVs, but investors view that as a business that could someday dwindle to no profit at all. Electrics, by contrast, will only get more profitable as costs drop, technology advances and more people buy them.<blockquote>新技术是增长所在。根据S&amp;P Capital IQ的数据，特斯拉过去两年的收入增长率为39%。通用汽车的增长率为负5%。大流行的干扰是两家公司业绩的一个因素，但这一趋势在大流行之前是相同的。通用汽车仍然通过销售高利润的皮卡和SUV赚了很多钱，但投资者认为这项业务有一天可能会萎缩到根本没有利润。相比之下，随着成本下降、技术进步以及更多人购买电动汽车，电动汽车的利润只会更高。</blockquote> Capital.Traditional carmakers such as GM and Ford argue that the profitability of existing lineups gives them an advantage because they have in-house funding for new EV technology. But startups haven’t needed in-house funding because capital markets have been a ready source of money. “Capital for EV [manufacturers] is widely available and cheap in current market conditions, so we believe momentum/support for many of the stocks will persist,” analyst John Murphy of Bank of America wrote in a recent research note. “As has proven the case for Tesla over the past decade, the higher the upward spiral of stock, the cheaper capital becomes to fund growth.”<blockquote>首都。通用汽车和福特等传统汽车制造商认为，现有产品线的盈利能力给了他们优势，因为他们拥有新电动汽车技术的内部资金。但初创公司并不需要内部资金，因为资本市场一直是现成的资金来源。美国银行分析师约翰·墨菲在最近的一份研究报告中写道：“在当前的市场条件下，电动汽车（制造商）的资本随处可见且廉价，因此我们相信许多股票的势头/支撑将持续下去。”“正如特斯拉过去十年的情况所证明的那样，股票螺旋式上升越高，为增长提供资金的资本就越便宜。”</blockquote> Risk.Since investors view EV startups as tech or growth stocks, they tend to tolerate and even encourage the kind of risk-taking that can cause losses but also generate breakthroughs. Much of Tesla’s first decade as a company was a high-wire act, with CEO Elon Musk&nbsp;routinely missing deadlines&nbsp;and understating the company’s financial woes. Investors rarely cared, bidding the stock up almost the entire way. It’s hard to imagine the CEO of GM or Ford getting away with Musk’s antics, which would be completely out of character at a U.S. industrial stalwart. Tesla shareholders recognize that Musk’s eccentricity coincides with a genius for seeing the future before others. Many other companies would toss such a bomb-thrower overboard, to maintain stability or appease fussy shareholders. Not a problem at Tesla and the like.<blockquote>风险。由于投资者将电动汽车初创公司视为科技股或成长股，他们往往会容忍甚至鼓励那种可能造成损失但也能带来突破的冒险行为。特斯拉作为一家公司的第一个十年大部分时间都是走钢丝的行为，首席执行官Elon Musk经常错过最后期限，并低估了公司的财务困境。投资者很少关心，几乎一路抬高了股票的出价。很难想象通用汽车或福特的首席执行官会逃脱马斯克的滑稽行为，这完全不符合美国工业巨头的性格。特斯拉股东认识到，马斯克的古怪与他先于他人预见未来的天才不谋而合。许多其他公司会将这样的炸弹投掷器扔出船外，以维持稳定或安抚挑剔的股东。在特斯拉之类的地方没问题。</blockquote> None of this means big automakers are dead. Many have compelling EVs on sale or in the works, such as the new Hummer coming from GM, the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup and the Volkswagen ID.4. While Tesla stock has been turning ordinary investors into millionaires, GM and Ford haven’t been too shabby either, this year. Ford is up 120%, with GM up 47%; both companies have been gradually convincing investors they’re morphing into EV companies possibly capable of leading the pack.<blockquote>这一切并不意味着大型汽车制造商已经死亡。许多公司都有引人注目的电动汽车正在销售或正在开发中，例如通用汽车的新款悍马、福特F-150 Lightning皮卡和大众ID.4。虽然特斯拉的股票一直在将普通投资者变成百万富翁，但通用汽车和福特今年的表现也不算太差。福特上涨120%，通用汽车上涨47%；两家公司都在逐渐让投资者相信，他们正在转型为可能有能力领先的电动汽车公司。</blockquote> But Old Auto may have a lot more transforming to do. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has argued that GM and Ford shouldspin off their EV operationsinto new companies that would have growth opportunities similar to Tesla—and no legacy business weighing them down. The aging ICE assembly lines—which Jonas likens to coal-fired utilities—would operate as separate companies for as long as they’re profitable. GM shareholders in particular could win big, because GM’s various divisions may be worth a lot more split apart than they are together. So far, GM and Ford have indicated no interest in such a move.<blockquote>但是旧汽车可能还有更多的改造要做。摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，通用汽车和福特应该将其电动汽车业务剥离给新公司，这些公司将拥有类似于特斯拉的增长机会，并且不会有遗留业务拖累它们。乔纳斯将老化的ICE装配线比作燃煤公用事业公司，只要它们盈利，就会作为独立的公司运营。尤其是通用汽车的股东可能会赢得很大的胜利，因为通用汽车的各个部门分开后的价值可能比它们加在一起的价值高得多。到目前为止，通用汽车和福特尚未表示对此举感兴趣。</blockquote> It’s also possible some of the EV high-flyers will stumble, since major hurdles to widespread EV adoption remain. The United States still has an inadequate charging network, and that may remain the case: more chargers are coming online, but EV sales are soaring, too. GM’s embarrassing setback with&nbsp;flammable batteries in its Bolt EV&nbsp;reveals that technical hurdles are still steep. EV batteries also&nbsp;require several minerals that generate a lot of pollution when mined, which means they’re not as environmentally desirable as it might seem. There are early leaders in the EV race, but there’s still time for laggards to overtake them.<blockquote>一些电动汽车雄心勃勃的企业也有可能陷入困境，因为电动汽车广泛采用的主要障碍仍然存在。美国的充电网络仍然不足，而且情况可能会持续下去：越来越多的充电器上线，但电动汽车销量也在飙升。通用汽车在其Bolt电动汽车中因易燃电池而遭遇尴尬挫折，这表明技术障碍仍然很大。电动汽车电池还需要几种矿物，这些矿物在开采时会产生大量污染，这意味着它们并不像看起来那么环保。电动汽车竞赛中有早期的领导者，但落后者仍有时间超越他们。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s bizarro world in the auto industry, again<blockquote>汽车行业又是一个奇异的世界</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s bizarro world in the auto industry, again<blockquote>汽车行业又是一个奇异的世界</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nYahoo2021-11-12 09:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt’s not just Tesla.<blockquote>不仅仅是特斯拉。</blockquote> Electric-vehicle startup Rivian (RIVN) has roared into public markets with a&nbsp;killer public offering&nbsp;and a market value of $116 billion. That’s 32% more than General Motors (GM) is worth, and 47% more than Ford (F). Rivian has never sold a vehicle until this year. GM sells around 7 million vehicles per year; Ford, 4 million.<blockquote>电动汽车初创公司Rivian(RIVN)以一次杀手级的公开募股和1160亿美元的市值大举进军公开市场。这比通用汽车(GM)的价值高出32%，比福特(F)高出47%。Rivian直到今年才售出一辆汽车。通用汽车每年销售约700万辆汽车；福特，400万。</blockquote> If you add up the market value of Tesla (TSLA),Rivian, and 5 other startups including Lucid (LCID), Nikola (NKLA), Fisker (FSR), Lordstown Motors (RIDE) and Workhorse (WKHS), their combined capitalization is nearly $1.3 trillion. Nine of the world’s biggest automakers—GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler-Benz—are only worth $845 billion. So those 9 giant automakers are worth 34% less than 7 fledgling EV manufacturers. As for sales, the established manufacturers outsell the EV upstarts 100 to 1.<blockquote>如果你把特斯拉(TSLA)、Rivian以及Lucid(LCID)、Nikola(NKLA)、Fisker(FSR)、Lordstown Motors(RIDE)和Workhorse(WKHS)等其他5家初创公司的市值加起来，它们的总市值接近1.3万亿美元。全球最大的九家汽车制造商——通用汽车、福特、Stellantis、丰田、日产、本田、大众、宝马和戴姆勒-奔驰——的价值仅为8450亿美元。因此，这9家大型汽车制造商的市值比7家新兴电动汽车制造商低34%。就销量而言，老牌制造商的销量是电动汽车新贵的100比1。</blockquote> Does this make sense? Traders have grappled with Tesla’s stratospheric valuation for years. Many investing pros who bet that Tesla was overvalued&nbsp;crashed and burnedas the stock soared beyond almost anybody’s best guess. The market now seems to view&nbsp;Rivian&nbsp;as a Tesla-in-the-making, especially since it already has backing from Amazon and Ford. By focusing on sport pickups and delivery vans, Rivian has one foot in consumer vehicles and the other in commercial applications, a shrewd mix that lets the company spread its bets on a trend that is already a revolution in ground transportation.<blockquote>这有意义吗？多年来，交易员一直在努力应对特斯拉过高的估值。许多押注特斯拉被高估的投资专业人士在该股飙升超出几乎所有人的最佳猜测时崩溃并烧毁。市场现在似乎将Rivian视为正在形成的特斯拉，尤其是因为它已经获得了Amazon和Ford的支持。通过专注于运动型皮卡和送货车，Rivian一只脚涉足消费汽车，另一只脚涉足商业应用，这种精明的组合使该公司能够将赌注分散在已经是地面交通革命的趋势上。</blockquote> While legacy automakers and EV startups both build cars, the market treats them quite differently. Here’s why EV makers earn such rich valuations compared with traditional car companies:<blockquote>虽然传统汽车制造商和电动汽车初创公司都生产汽车，但市场对待它们的方式却截然不同。这就是电动汽车制造商与传统汽车公司相比获得如此丰厚估值的原因：</blockquote> Growth.In market terms, investors consider&nbsp;EV new&nbsp;comers&nbsp;such as Tesla and Rivian to be growth and technology companies with tons of upside potential. Traditional automakers are industrial concerns capable of incremental growth, at best. While virtually every big automaker is developing EV technology, the old ones won’t attain nearly the same rapid growth as the new ones will. That’s because they have massive investments in internal-combustion engines, or ICE—a.k.a. gas-and diesel-powered cars—that will decline as the new EV technology ramps up.<blockquote>增长。从市场角度来看，投资者认为特斯拉和Rivian等电动汽车新来者是具有巨大上涨潜力的成长型和科技公司。传统汽车制造商充其量是能够实现增量增长的工业企业。虽然几乎每个大型汽车制造商都在开发电动汽车技术，但旧的汽车制造商不会像新的汽车制造商那样获得几乎相同的快速增长。这是因为他们在内燃机（ICE）上进行了大量投资。汽油和柴油动力汽车——随着新电动汽车技术的发展，这一数字将会下降。</blockquote> GM, for instance, sold 202,000 EVs in 2020, which was third most of any automaker, behind Tesla and Volkswagen. But for GM the technology of the future represented just 3% of all sales. The other 97% were legacy ICE vehicles likely to decline as a share of the overall market for years to come. At Tesla, 100% of sales were EVs, with no legacy business to manage.<blockquote>例如，通用汽车在2020年售出了202,000辆电动汽车，在所有汽车制造商中排名第三，仅次于特斯拉和大众。但对于通用汽车来说，未来技术仅占总销售额的3%。另外97%是传统内燃机汽车，未来几年在整体市场的份额可能会下降。在特斯拉，100%的销售额是电动汽车，没有遗留业务需要管理。</blockquote> The new technology is where the growth is. Tesla’s revenue growth rate during the last two years has been 39%, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ. GM’s has been a negative 5%. Pandemic disruptions have been a factor in both company’s performance, but the trend was the same before the pandemic. GM still makes a lot of money selling high-margin pickups and SUVs, but investors view that as a business that could someday dwindle to no profit at all. Electrics, by contrast, will only get more profitable as costs drop, technology advances and more people buy them.<blockquote>新技术是增长所在。根据S&amp;P Capital IQ的数据，特斯拉过去两年的收入增长率为39%。通用汽车的增长率为负5%。大流行的干扰是两家公司业绩的一个因素，但这一趋势在大流行之前是相同的。通用汽车仍然通过销售高利润的皮卡和SUV赚了很多钱，但投资者认为这项业务有一天可能会萎缩到根本没有利润。相比之下，随着成本下降、技术进步以及更多人购买电动汽车，电动汽车的利润只会更高。</blockquote> Capital.Traditional carmakers such as GM and Ford argue that the profitability of existing lineups gives them an advantage because they have in-house funding for new EV technology. But startups haven’t needed in-house funding because capital markets have been a ready source of money. “Capital for EV [manufacturers] is widely available and cheap in current market conditions, so we believe momentum/support for many of the stocks will persist,” analyst John Murphy of Bank of America wrote in a recent research note. “As has proven the case for Tesla over the past decade, the higher the upward spiral of stock, the cheaper capital becomes to fund growth.”<blockquote>首都。通用汽车和福特等传统汽车制造商认为，现有产品线的盈利能力给了他们优势，因为他们拥有新电动汽车技术的内部资金。但初创公司并不需要内部资金，因为资本市场一直是现成的资金来源。美国银行分析师约翰·墨菲在最近的一份研究报告中写道：“在当前的市场条件下，电动汽车（制造商）的资本随处可见且廉价，因此我们相信许多股票的势头/支撑将持续下去。”“正如特斯拉过去十年的情况所证明的那样，股票螺旋式上升越高，为增长提供资金的资本就越便宜。”</blockquote> Risk.Since investors view EV startups as tech or growth stocks, they tend to tolerate and even encourage the kind of risk-taking that can cause losses but also generate breakthroughs. Much of Tesla’s first decade as a company was a high-wire act, with CEO Elon Musk&nbsp;routinely missing deadlines&nbsp;and understating the company’s financial woes. Investors rarely cared, bidding the stock up almost the entire way. It’s hard to imagine the CEO of GM or Ford getting away with Musk’s antics, which would be completely out of character at a U.S. industrial stalwart. Tesla shareholders recognize that Musk’s eccentricity coincides with a genius for seeing the future before others. Many other companies would toss such a bomb-thrower overboard, to maintain stability or appease fussy shareholders. Not a problem at Tesla and the like.<blockquote>风险。由于投资者将电动汽车初创公司视为科技股或成长股，他们往往会容忍甚至鼓励那种可能造成损失但也能带来突破的冒险行为。特斯拉作为一家公司的第一个十年大部分时间都是走钢丝的行为，首席执行官Elon Musk经常错过最后期限，并低估了公司的财务困境。投资者很少关心，几乎一路抬高了股票的出价。很难想象通用汽车或福特的首席执行官会逃脱马斯克的滑稽行为，这完全不符合美国工业巨头的性格。特斯拉股东认识到，马斯克的古怪与他先于他人预见未来的天才不谋而合。许多其他公司会将这样的炸弹投掷器扔出船外，以维持稳定或安抚挑剔的股东。在特斯拉之类的地方没问题。</blockquote> None of this means big automakers are dead. Many have compelling EVs on sale or in the works, such as the new Hummer coming from GM, the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup and the Volkswagen ID.4. While Tesla stock has been turning ordinary investors into millionaires, GM and Ford haven’t been too shabby either, this year. Ford is up 120%, with GM up 47%; both companies have been gradually convincing investors they’re morphing into EV companies possibly capable of leading the pack.<blockquote>这一切并不意味着大型汽车制造商已经死亡。许多公司都有引人注目的电动汽车正在销售或正在开发中，例如通用汽车的新款悍马、福特F-150 Lightning皮卡和大众ID.4。虽然特斯拉的股票一直在将普通投资者变成百万富翁，但通用汽车和福特今年的表现也不算太差。福特上涨120%，通用汽车上涨47%；两家公司都在逐渐让投资者相信，他们正在转型为可能有能力领先的电动汽车公司。</blockquote> But Old Auto may have a lot more transforming to do. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has argued that GM and Ford shouldspin off their EV operationsinto new companies that would have growth opportunities similar to Tesla—and no legacy business weighing them down. The aging ICE assembly lines—which Jonas likens to coal-fired utilities—would operate as separate companies for as long as they’re profitable. GM shareholders in particular could win big, because GM’s various divisions may be worth a lot more split apart than they are together. So far, GM and Ford have indicated no interest in such a move.<blockquote>但是旧汽车可能还有更多的改造要做。摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，通用汽车和福特应该将其电动汽车业务剥离给新公司，这些公司将拥有类似于特斯拉的增长机会，并且不会有遗留业务拖累它们。乔纳斯将老化的ICE装配线比作燃煤公用事业公司，只要它们盈利，就会作为独立的公司运营。尤其是通用汽车的股东可能会赢得很大的胜利，因为通用汽车的各个部门分开后的价值可能比它们加在一起的价值高得多。到目前为止，通用汽车和福特尚未表示对此举感兴趣。</blockquote> It’s also possible some of the EV high-flyers will stumble, since major hurdles to widespread EV adoption remain. The United States still has an inadequate charging network, and that may remain the case: more chargers are coming online, but EV sales are soaring, too. GM’s embarrassing setback with&nbsp;flammable batteries in its Bolt EV&nbsp;reveals that technical hurdles are still steep. EV batteries also&nbsp;require several minerals that generate a lot of pollution when mined, which means they’re not as environmentally desirable as it might seem. There are early leaders in the EV race, but there’s still time for laggards to overtake them.<blockquote>一些电动汽车雄心勃勃的企业也有可能陷入困境，因为电动汽车广泛采用的主要障碍仍然存在。美国的充电网络仍然不足，而且情况可能会持续下去：越来越多的充电器上线，但电动汽车销量也在飙升。通用汽车在其Bolt电动汽车中因易燃电池而遭遇尴尬挫折，这表明技术障碍仍然很大。电动汽车电池还需要几种矿物，这些矿物在开采时会产生大量污染，这意味着它们并不像看起来那么环保。电动汽车竞赛中有早期的领导者，但落后者仍有时间超越他们。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/its-bizarro-world-in-the-auto-industry-again-203740250.html\">Yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/its-bizarro-world-in-the-auto-industry-again-203740250.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149727865","content_text":"It’s not just Tesla.\nElectric-vehicle startup Rivian (RIVN) has roared into public markets with a killer public offering and a market value of $116 billion. That’s 32% more than General Motors (GM) is worth, and 47% more than Ford (F). Rivian has never sold a vehicle until this year. GM sells around 7 million vehicles per year; Ford, 4 million.\nIf you add up the market value of Tesla (TSLA),Rivian, and 5 other startups including Lucid (LCID), Nikola (NKLA), Fisker (FSR), Lordstown Motors (RIDE) and Workhorse (WKHS), their combined capitalization is nearly $1.3 trillion. Nine of the world’s biggest automakers—GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler-Benz—are only worth $845 billion. So those 9 giant automakers are worth 34% less than 7 fledgling EV manufacturers. As for sales, the established manufacturers outsell the EV upstarts 100 to 1.\nDoes this make sense? Traders have grappled with Tesla’s stratospheric valuation for years. Many investing pros who bet that Tesla was overvalued crashed and burnedas the stock soared beyond almost anybody’s best guess. The market now seems to view Rivian as a Tesla-in-the-making, especially since it already has backing from Amazon and Ford. By focusing on sport pickups and delivery vans, Rivian has one foot in consumer vehicles and the other in commercial applications, a shrewd mix that lets the company spread its bets on a trend that is already a revolution in ground transportation.\nWhile legacy automakers and EV startups both build cars, the market treats them quite differently. Here’s why EV makers earn such rich valuations compared with traditional car companies:\nGrowth.In market terms, investors consider EV new comers such as Tesla and Rivian to be growth and technology companies with tons of upside potential. Traditional automakers are industrial concerns capable of incremental growth, at best. While virtually every big automaker is developing EV technology, the old ones won’t attain nearly the same rapid growth as the new ones will. That’s because they have massive investments in internal-combustion engines, or ICE—a.k.a. gas-and diesel-powered cars—that will decline as the new EV technology ramps up.\nGM, for instance, sold 202,000 EVs in 2020, which was third most of any automaker, behind Tesla and Volkswagen. But for GM the technology of the future represented just 3% of all sales. The other 97% were legacy ICE vehicles likely to decline as a share of the overall market for years to come. At Tesla, 100% of sales were EVs, with no legacy business to manage.\nThe new technology is where the growth is. Tesla’s revenue growth rate during the last two years has been 39%, according to S&P Capital IQ. GM’s has been a negative 5%. Pandemic disruptions have been a factor in both company’s performance, but the trend was the same before the pandemic. GM still makes a lot of money selling high-margin pickups and SUVs, but investors view that as a business that could someday dwindle to no profit at all. Electrics, by contrast, will only get more profitable as costs drop, technology advances and more people buy them.\nCapital.Traditional carmakers such as GM and Ford argue that the profitability of existing lineups gives them an advantage because they have in-house funding for new EV technology. But startups haven’t needed in-house funding because capital markets have been a ready source of money. “Capital for EV [manufacturers] is widely available and cheap in current market conditions, so we believe momentum/support for many of the stocks will persist,” analyst John Murphy of Bank of America wrote in a recent research note. “As has proven the case for Tesla over the past decade, the higher the upward spiral of stock, the cheaper capital becomes to fund growth.”\nRisk.Since investors view EV startups as tech or growth stocks, they tend to tolerate and even encourage the kind of risk-taking that can cause losses but also generate breakthroughs. Much of Tesla’s first decade as a company was a high-wire act, with CEO Elon Musk routinely missing deadlines and understating the company’s financial woes. Investors rarely cared, bidding the stock up almost the entire way. It’s hard to imagine the CEO of GM or Ford getting away with Musk’s antics, which would be completely out of character at a U.S. industrial stalwart. Tesla shareholders recognize that Musk’s eccentricity coincides with a genius for seeing the future before others. Many other companies would toss such a bomb-thrower overboard, to maintain stability or appease fussy shareholders. Not a problem at Tesla and the like.\nNone of this means big automakers are dead. Many have compelling EVs on sale or in the works, such as the new Hummer coming from GM, the Ford F-150 Lightning pickup and the Volkswagen ID.4. While Tesla stock has been turning ordinary investors into millionaires, GM and Ford haven’t been too shabby either, this year. Ford is up 120%, with GM up 47%; both companies have been gradually convincing investors they’re morphing into EV companies possibly capable of leading the pack.\nBut Old Auto may have a lot more transforming to do. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has argued that GM and Ford shouldspin off their EV operationsinto new companies that would have growth opportunities similar to Tesla—and no legacy business weighing them down. The aging ICE assembly lines—which Jonas likens to coal-fired utilities—would operate as separate companies for as long as they’re profitable. GM shareholders in particular could win big, because GM’s various divisions may be worth a lot more split apart than they are together. So far, GM and Ford have indicated no interest in such a move.\nIt’s also possible some of the EV high-flyers will stumble, since major hurdles to widespread EV adoption remain. The United States still has an inadequate charging network, and that may remain the case: more chargers are coming online, but EV sales are soaring, too. GM’s embarrassing setback with flammable batteries in its Bolt EV reveals that technical hurdles are still steep. EV batteries also require several minerals that generate a lot of pollution when mined, which means they’re not as environmentally desirable as it might seem. There are early leaders in the EV race, but there’s still time for laggards to overtake them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}