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2021-09-17

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Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote>

Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market correct

Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":884854234,"tweetId":"884854234","gmtCreate":1631882459828,"gmtModify":1632805614207,"author":{"id":3562791266647459,"idStr":"3562791266647459","authorId":3562791266647459,"authorIdStr":"3562791266647459","name":"Atsc89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec47b1c36e59ba1ef8caac8ab619319","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884854234","repostId":1160944962,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160944962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631881684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160944962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 20:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160944962","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market correct","content":"Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?<blockquote>著名投资组合经理Dan Niles认为，随着大盘回调高达20%，苹果股票正在下跌。他的悲观情绪会实现吗？</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles&nbsp;believes&nbsp;in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.<blockquote>苹果股票即将与市场其他股票一起暴跌。至少Satori Fund的投资组合经理Dan Niles是这么认为的，他在本周早些时候接受CNBC采访时透露了他对AAPL的空头头寸。</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家着眼于看跌的情况，并评估丹的担忧是否有道理。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3d6af5118ba8435cff4b332c3525a5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.<blockquote>图1：丹·奈尔斯在美国消费者新闻与商业频道Squawk Box上的采访。</blockquote> AAPL: pressure from all sides<blockquote>苹果公司：来自各方的压力</blockquote> Dan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&amp;P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.<blockquote>Dan Niles列出了苹果股票和标普500可能下跌的原因很长。这一切都始于对这家库比蒂诺公司9月14日发布iPhone 13后股价行为的评估。</blockquote> According to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.<blockquote>奈尔斯表示，苹果公司在每年的这个时候往往会屈服于抛售压力。他的观察是有根据的。下图由Stock Rover提供，显示苹果股票在今年最后几个月的表现最逊于标普500，至少在过去十年中是如此。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5adebbd41107c35aa1e2b02a79a54ad1\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&amp;P (seasonality).<blockquote>图2：AAPL平均月回报率与S&amp;P（季节性）。</blockquote> Still on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.<blockquote>仍然从短期表现来看，这位投资组合经理认为，在他认为将是艰难的COVID-19比较之前，苹果股票的定价过于激进。如下图所示，苹果在去年假期期间和假期结束后取得了出色的业绩。超越这样的表现即使不是几乎不可能，也是很困难的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af89400f036896ebbb02d811348863dc\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.<blockquote>图3：AAPL总收入增长。</blockquote> On this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and&nbsp;5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.<blockquote>在这个话题上，专家们似乎分为看涨的多数和看跌的少数。例如，韦德布什的丹·艾夫斯可能不同意丹·奈尔斯的观点。这位华尔街分析师表示——我倾向于同意他的观点——数字化转型和5G升级周期应该持续数年，而不仅仅是几个非典型的疫情月。</blockquote> S&amp;P 500: pricey and facing headwinds<blockquote>标普500：价格昂贵且面临阻力</blockquote> While Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&amp;P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.<blockquote>虽然Dan Niles对AAPL股票的看跌论点可能是孤立的，但他对大盘的悲观情绪可能是导致苹果股票下跌的一两拳。Niles先生预计，到今年年底，标普500将调整10%至20%。</blockquote> At the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.<blockquote>在他列出的可能发生这种情况的原因中，最重要的是一个致命的组合：通货膨胀、对COVID-19的担忧和高估值。我同情他的担忧，因为至少自今年年初（如果不是更长时间的话）以来，这三个因素一直是市场的关键风险因素。</blockquote> The better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.<blockquote>在我看来，对多头来说更好的消息是，以上对投资者来说都不是“新消息”。到目前为止，股市在2021年的几个月里很好地经受住了逆风，我认为这是一个积极的迹象，表明任何潜在的担忧可能都已经被消化了。</blockquote> This is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.<blockquote>当然，这并不是说应该忽视风险。相反，我只是不相信市场或苹果股票投资者会根据旧信息突然抛售头寸——除非发生剧烈且意想不到的事情，例如通胀或利率大幅上升。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-09-17 20:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFamed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?<blockquote>著名投资组合经理Dan Niles认为，随着大盘回调高达20%，苹果股票正在下跌。他的悲观情绪会实现吗？</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles&nbsp;believes&nbsp;in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.<blockquote>苹果股票即将与市场其他股票一起暴跌。至少Satori Fund的投资组合经理Dan Niles是这么认为的，他在本周早些时候接受CNBC采访时透露了他对AAPL的空头头寸。</blockquote> Today, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.<blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家着眼于看跌的情况，并评估丹的担忧是否有道理。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab3d6af5118ba8435cff4b332c3525a5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.<blockquote>图1：丹·奈尔斯在美国消费者新闻与商业频道Squawk Box上的采访。</blockquote> AAPL: pressure from all sides<blockquote>苹果公司：来自各方的压力</blockquote> Dan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&amp;P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.<blockquote>Dan Niles列出了苹果股票和标普500可能下跌的原因很长。这一切都始于对这家库比蒂诺公司9月14日发布iPhone 13后股价行为的评估。</blockquote> According to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.<blockquote>奈尔斯表示，苹果公司在每年的这个时候往往会屈服于抛售压力。他的观察是有根据的。下图由Stock Rover提供，显示苹果股票在今年最后几个月的表现最逊于标普500，至少在过去十年中是如此。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5adebbd41107c35aa1e2b02a79a54ad1\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&amp;P (seasonality).<blockquote>图2：AAPL平均月回报率与S&amp;P（季节性）。</blockquote> Still on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.<blockquote>仍然从短期表现来看，这位投资组合经理认为，在他认为将是艰难的COVID-19比较之前，苹果股票的定价过于激进。如下图所示，苹果在去年假期期间和假期结束后取得了出色的业绩。超越这样的表现即使不是几乎不可能，也是很困难的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af89400f036896ebbb02d811348863dc\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.<blockquote>图3：AAPL总收入增长。</blockquote> On this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and&nbsp;5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.<blockquote>在这个话题上，专家们似乎分为看涨的多数和看跌的少数。例如，韦德布什的丹·艾夫斯可能不同意丹·奈尔斯的观点。这位华尔街分析师表示——我倾向于同意他的观点——数字化转型和5G升级周期应该持续数年，而不仅仅是几个非典型的疫情月。</blockquote> S&amp;P 500: pricey and facing headwinds<blockquote>标普500：价格昂贵且面临阻力</blockquote> While Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&amp;P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.<blockquote>虽然Dan Niles对AAPL股票的看跌论点可能是孤立的，但他对大盘的悲观情绪可能是导致苹果股票下跌的一两拳。Niles先生预计，到今年年底，标普500将调整10%至20%。</blockquote> At the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.<blockquote>在他列出的可能发生这种情况的原因中，最重要的是一个致命的组合：通货膨胀、对COVID-19的担忧和高估值。我同情他的担忧，因为至少自今年年初（如果不是更长时间的话）以来，这三个因素一直是市场的关键风险因素。</blockquote> The better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.<blockquote>在我看来，对多头来说更好的消息是，以上对投资者来说都不是“新消息”。到目前为止，股市在2021年的几个月里很好地经受住了逆风，我认为这是一个积极的迹象，表明任何潜在的担忧可能都已经被消化了。</blockquote> This is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.<blockquote>当然，这并不是说应该忽视风险。相反，我只是不相信市场或苹果股票投资者会根据旧信息突然抛售头寸——除非发生剧烈且意想不到的事情，例如通胀或利率大幅上升。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-to-crumble-along-with-s-p-500-says-one-expert\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-to-crumble-along-with-s-p-500-says-one-expert","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160944962","content_text":"Famed portfolio manager Dan Niles thinks that Apple stock is going down, as the broad market corrects up to 20%. Could his bearishness come to fruition?\nApple stock is about to take a dive alongside the rest of the market. At least this is what Satori Fund’s portfolio manager Dan Niles believes in, as he unveiled his short position on AAPL during a CNBC interview earlier this week.\nToday, the Apple Maven looks at the bearish case and assesses whether Dan’s concerns might have merits.\nFigure 1: Dan Niles interview on Squawk Box CNBC.\nAAPL: pressure from all sides\nDan Niles’ list of reasons why Apple stock and the S&P 500 will likely dip is long. It all starts with an assessment of the Cupertino company’s share price behavior, following the September 14 announcement of the iPhone 13.\nAccording to Mr. Niles, AAPL tends to succumb to sell-the-news pressures around this time of the year. His observation is well founded. The chart below,provided by Stock Rover, shows that Apple stock has underperformed the S&P 500 the most in the last few months of the year, at least over the past decade.\nFigure 2: AAPL average monthly return vs. S&P (seasonality).\nStill on short term performance, the portfolio manager thinks that Apple stock is priced too aggressively ahead of what he believes will be tough COVID-19 comps. Apple delivered outstanding results during and right after the holiday period last year, as the chart below depicts. Topping such performance will be hard, if not nearly impossible.\nFigure 3: AAPL total revenue growth.\nOn this topic, experts seem to be split between a bullish majority and a bearish minority. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, would likely disagree with Dan Niles. According to the Wall Street analyst – and I tend to agree with him – the digital transformation and 5G upgrade cycle should last years, not only a few atypical pandemic months.\nS&P 500: pricey and facing headwinds\nWhile Dan Niles’ bearish arguments on AAPL shares could stand alone, his pessimism towards the broad market might be the one-two punch that knocks Apple stock down. Mr. Niles sees the S&P 500 correcting between 10% and 20% by the end of this year.\nAt the top of his list of reasons why this could happen is a deadly combo: inflation, COVID-19 worries and high valuations. I sympathize with his concerns, as all three have been key risk factors for the markets since at least the beginning of this year, if not longer.\nThe better news for bulls, in my view, is that none of the above is “new news” to investors. Equities have endured the headwinds very well through several months in 2021 so far, which I take as a positive sign that any potential worry may have already been priced in.\nThis is not to say, of course, that risks should be dismissed. Rather, I just don’t believe that the market or Apple stock investors will suddenly dump their positions based on old information – unless something drastic and unexpected, such as substantially higher inflation or interest rates, were to happen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Apple Stock To Crumble Along With S&P 500, Says One Expert<blockquote>一位专家表示，苹果股票将与标普500一起崩溃</blockquote>

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