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2021-09-19

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Investors are in an historically rotten mood. Their three biggest fears are overblown, strategist says.<blockquote>投资者的情绪历来都很糟糕。策略师表示，他们最大的三个担忧被夸大了。</blockquote>

The American Association of Individual Investors has been tracking retail sentiment since 1987, and

Investors are in an historically rotten mood. Their three biggest fears are overblown, strategist says.<blockquote>投资者的情绪历来都很糟糕。策略师表示，他们最大的三个担忧被夸大了。</blockquote>

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Their three biggest fears are overblown, strategist says.<blockquote>投资者的情绪历来都很糟糕。策略师表示，他们最大的三个担忧被夸大了。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168612522","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The American Association of Individual Investors has been tracking retail sentiment since 1987, and ","content":"The American Association of Individual Investors has been tracking retail sentiment since 1987, and this week, wow has that mood been rotten. The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment nosedived to -17%, from positive 12% just a week earlier. That's the lowest read since October 2020, and the biggest one-week drop since August 2019.<blockquote>美国个人投资者协会自1987年以来一直在跟踪散户情绪，而本周，哇，这种情绪已经变得糟糕了。看涨和看跌情绪之间的利差从一周前的正12%骤降至-17%。这是自2020年10月以来的最低读数，也是自2019年8月以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote> The good news is that quick downturns in investor pessimism are usually unfounded. Buying last October, ahead of the U.S. election, would have netted a cool 33% gain in the S&amp;P 500 . Buying the blues of August 2019 would've left an investor up 17% a year later.<blockquote>好消息是，投资者悲观情绪的快速下降通常是没有根据的。去年10月美国大选前买入，标普500将大幅上涨33%。购买2019年8月的蓝军会让投资者在一年后上涨17%。</blockquote> In a note to clients, Truist Advisory Services chief market strategist Keith Lerner takes on three of the biggest concerns that investors have -- and why he's bullish anyway.<blockquote>Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)在给客户的一份报告中阐述了投资者最关心的三个问题，以及他为何看涨。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b9f4f3671025b5a422133198067a25\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The first is the idea of peak economic growth being reached. Lerner says the evidence favors the idea that the delta strain of coronavirus deferred rather than capped growth. \"We now expect roughly 6.2% U.S. economic growth for this year and a healthy 4.5% pace next year, which would still be about double the pre-pandemic trend,\" he says. The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen so much that it's now at an area where it tends to rise again.<blockquote>首先是经济增长达到峰值的想法。勒纳说，证据支持这样一种观点，即冠状病毒的德尔塔毒株推迟了而不是限制了增长。他表示：“我们现在预计今年美国经济增长约为6.2%，明年将健康增长4.5%，仍将是大流行前趋势的两倍左右。”花旗美国经济意外指数跌幅如此之大，以至于现在处于可能再次上升的区域。</blockquote> The next issue is the likely taper of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve. Lerner notes it's well-telegraphed, that in any event the Fed will still be buying bonds next year, and that the economy is in a much stronger position than it was during the 2013 taper.<blockquote>下一个问题是美联储可能缩减购债规模。勒纳指出，无论如何，美联储明年仍将购买债券，而且经济状况比2013年缩减期间要强劲得多，这一点已得到充分证实。</blockquote> The third issue is the tax hikes, for corporations and investors, being considered by Congress. Lerner says the consensus is that the corporate tax rate will be raised to 25% from 21%, and capital-gains taxes will be increased to 25% from 20% for those making over $400,000.<blockquote>第三个问题是国会正在考虑的对企业和投资者的增税。勒纳表示，共识是企业税率将从21%提高到25%，收入超过40万美元的人的资本利得税将从20%提高到25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbc385843fc580c2c16183403ee34be\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lerner says when the historical impact of tax policy on market returns and economic growth is examined, there isn't a consistent relationship. For example, in the high-tax 1950s, there were the best stock market returns of the past 70 years as well as a robust economic environment; in the low-tax 2000s, there was the bursting of the technology bubble as well as the global financial crisis.<blockquote>勒纳表示，当考察税收政策对市场回报和经济增长的历史影响时，并不存在一致的关系。例如，在高税收的20世纪50年代，股市回报率是过去70年来最好的，经济环境也很强劲；在低税收的2000年代，科技泡沫破裂以及全球金融危机。</blockquote> \"We are not suggesting that taxes don't matter. Instead, our works shows that taxes are only one of many factors that influence market returns. Moreover, the business cycle tends to overwhelm tax policy,\" he says, estimating a 5% drag on corporate earnings from tax proposals.<blockquote>“我们并不是说税收无关紧要。相反，我们的研究表明，税收只是影响市场回报的众多因素之一。此外，商业周期往往会压倒税收政策，”他说，估计税收提案会拖累企业盈利5%。</blockquote> What does look attractive, he says, is relative valuation. The equity risk premium, a metric that compares the valuation of stocks to bonds, remains at a level that has historically corresponded with stocks outperforming bonds on a 12-month basis, he says.<blockquote>他说，看起来确实有吸引力的是相对估值。他表示，股票风险溢价（一种比较股票与债券估值的指标）仍处于历史上股票在12个月内表现优于债券的水平。</blockquote> The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ebf8955e6463b888549c9b44013d82\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> A study finds that narcissistic chief executives drive fewer, but larger, mergers and acquisitions. But how do you identify narcissism? By studying conference calls, and their use of personal pronouns. \"The higher this ratio of first person personal pronouns to all personal pronouns is, the more likely it is that a CEO will try to engage in dumb outsized acquisitions that will lead to lower shareholder value,\" says Joachim Klement, the Liberum Capital strategist who also maintains his own blog.<blockquote>一项研究发现，自恋的首席执行官推动的并购数量较少，但规模较大。但是如何识别自恋呢？通过研究会议评级及其人称代词的使用。Liberum Capital策略师约阿希姆·克莱门特(Joachim Klement)表示：“第一人称人称代词与所有人称代词的比例越高，首席执行官就越有可能试图进行愚蠢的大规模收购，从而导致股东价值下降。”他还维护自己的博客。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are in an historically rotten mood. Their three biggest fears are overblown, strategist says.<blockquote>投资者的情绪历来都很糟糕。策略师表示，他们最大的三个担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are in an historically rotten mood. Their three biggest fears are overblown, strategist says.<blockquote>投资者的情绪历来都很糟糕。策略师表示，他们最大的三个担忧被夸大了。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-17 21:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe American Association of Individual Investors has been tracking retail sentiment since 1987, and this week, wow has that mood been rotten. The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment nosedived to -17%, from positive 12% just a week earlier. That's the lowest read since October 2020, and the biggest one-week drop since August 2019.<blockquote>美国个人投资者协会自1987年以来一直在跟踪散户情绪，而本周，哇，这种情绪已经变得糟糕了。看涨和看跌情绪之间的利差从一周前的正12%骤降至-17%。这是自2020年10月以来的最低读数，也是自2019年8月以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote> The good news is that quick downturns in investor pessimism are usually unfounded. Buying last October, ahead of the U.S. election, would have netted a cool 33% gain in the S&amp;P 500 . Buying the blues of August 2019 would've left an investor up 17% a year later.<blockquote>好消息是，投资者悲观情绪的快速下降通常是没有根据的。去年10月美国大选前买入，标普500将大幅上涨33%。购买2019年8月的蓝军会让投资者在一年后上涨17%。</blockquote> In a note to clients, Truist Advisory Services chief market strategist Keith Lerner takes on three of the biggest concerns that investors have -- and why he's bullish anyway.<blockquote>Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)在给客户的一份报告中阐述了投资者最关心的三个问题，以及他为何看涨。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b9f4f3671025b5a422133198067a25\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The first is the idea of peak economic growth being reached. Lerner says the evidence favors the idea that the delta strain of coronavirus deferred rather than capped growth. \"We now expect roughly 6.2% U.S. economic growth for this year and a healthy 4.5% pace next year, which would still be about double the pre-pandemic trend,\" he says. The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen so much that it's now at an area where it tends to rise again.<blockquote>首先是经济增长达到峰值的想法。勒纳说，证据支持这样一种观点，即冠状病毒的德尔塔毒株推迟了而不是限制了增长。他表示：“我们现在预计今年美国经济增长约为6.2%，明年将健康增长4.5%，仍将是大流行前趋势的两倍左右。”花旗美国经济意外指数跌幅如此之大，以至于现在处于可能再次上升的区域。</blockquote> The next issue is the likely taper of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve. Lerner notes it's well-telegraphed, that in any event the Fed will still be buying bonds next year, and that the economy is in a much stronger position than it was during the 2013 taper.<blockquote>下一个问题是美联储可能缩减购债规模。勒纳指出，无论如何，美联储明年仍将购买债券，而且经济状况比2013年缩减期间要强劲得多，这一点已得到充分证实。</blockquote> The third issue is the tax hikes, for corporations and investors, being considered by Congress. Lerner says the consensus is that the corporate tax rate will be raised to 25% from 21%, and capital-gains taxes will be increased to 25% from 20% for those making over $400,000.<blockquote>第三个问题是国会正在考虑的对企业和投资者的增税。勒纳表示，共识是企业税率将从21%提高到25%，收入超过40万美元的人的资本利得税将从20%提高到25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbbc385843fc580c2c16183403ee34be\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Lerner says when the historical impact of tax policy on market returns and economic growth is examined, there isn't a consistent relationship. For example, in the high-tax 1950s, there were the best stock market returns of the past 70 years as well as a robust economic environment; in the low-tax 2000s, there was the bursting of the technology bubble as well as the global financial crisis.<blockquote>勒纳表示，当考察税收政策对市场回报和经济增长的历史影响时，并不存在一致的关系。例如，在高税收的20世纪50年代，股市回报率是过去70年来最好的，经济环境也很强劲；在低税收的2000年代，科技泡沫破裂以及全球金融危机。</blockquote> \"We are not suggesting that taxes don't matter. Instead, our works shows that taxes are only one of many factors that influence market returns. Moreover, the business cycle tends to overwhelm tax policy,\" he says, estimating a 5% drag on corporate earnings from tax proposals.<blockquote>“我们并不是说税收无关紧要。相反，我们的研究表明，税收只是影响市场回报的众多因素之一。此外，商业周期往往会压倒税收政策，”他说，估计税收提案会拖累企业盈利5%。</blockquote> What does look attractive, he says, is relative valuation. The equity risk premium, a metric that compares the valuation of stocks to bonds, remains at a level that has historically corresponded with stocks outperforming bonds on a 12-month basis, he says.<blockquote>他说，看起来确实有吸引力的是相对估值。他表示，股票风险溢价（一种比较股票与债券估值的指标）仍处于历史上股票在12个月内表现优于债券的水平。</blockquote> The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ebf8955e6463b888549c9b44013d82\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> A study finds that narcissistic chief executives drive fewer, but larger, mergers and acquisitions. But how do you identify narcissism? By studying conference calls, and their use of personal pronouns. \"The higher this ratio of first person personal pronouns to all personal pronouns is, the more likely it is that a CEO will try to engage in dumb outsized acquisitions that will lead to lower shareholder value,\" says Joachim Klement, the Liberum Capital strategist who also maintains his own blog.<blockquote>一项研究发现，自恋的首席执行官推动的并购数量较少，但规模较大。但是如何识别自恋呢？通过研究会议评级及其人称代词的使用。Liberum Capital策略师约阿希姆·克莱门特(Joachim Klement)表示：“第一人称人称代词与所有人称代词的比例越高，首席执行官就越有可能试图进行愚蠢的大规模收购，从而导致股东价值下降。”他还维护自己的博客。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-in-an-historically-rotten-mood-their-three-biggest-fears-are-overblown-strategist-says-11631875434?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVZ":"美国景顺集团","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","EGRNF":"China Evergrande Group","STT":"道富银行","BLK":"贝莱德","ISBC":"投资者银行","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-in-an-historically-rotten-mood-their-three-biggest-fears-are-overblown-strategist-says-11631875434?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168612522","content_text":"The American Association of Individual Investors has been tracking retail sentiment since 1987, and this week, wow has that mood been rotten. The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment nosedived to -17%, from positive 12% just a week earlier. That's the lowest read since October 2020, and the biggest one-week drop since August 2019.\nThe good news is that quick downturns in investor pessimism are usually unfounded. Buying last October, ahead of the U.S. election, would have netted a cool 33% gain in the S&P 500 . Buying the blues of August 2019 would've left an investor up 17% a year later.\nIn a note to clients, Truist Advisory Services chief market strategist Keith Lerner takes on three of the biggest concerns that investors have -- and why he's bullish anyway.\n\nThe first is the idea of peak economic growth being reached. Lerner says the evidence favors the idea that the delta strain of coronavirus deferred rather than capped growth. \"We now expect roughly 6.2% U.S. economic growth for this year and a healthy 4.5% pace next year, which would still be about double the pre-pandemic trend,\" he says. The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen so much that it's now at an area where it tends to rise again.\nThe next issue is the likely taper of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve. Lerner notes it's well-telegraphed, that in any event the Fed will still be buying bonds next year, and that the economy is in a much stronger position than it was during the 2013 taper.\nThe third issue is the tax hikes, for corporations and investors, being considered by Congress. Lerner says the consensus is that the corporate tax rate will be raised to 25% from 21%, and capital-gains taxes will be increased to 25% from 20% for those making over $400,000.\n\nLerner says when the historical impact of tax policy on market returns and economic growth is examined, there isn't a consistent relationship. For example, in the high-tax 1950s, there were the best stock market returns of the past 70 years as well as a robust economic environment; in the low-tax 2000s, there was the bursting of the technology bubble as well as the global financial crisis.\n\"We are not suggesting that taxes don't matter. Instead, our works shows that taxes are only one of many factors that influence market returns. Moreover, the business cycle tends to overwhelm tax policy,\" he says, estimating a 5% drag on corporate earnings from tax proposals.\nWhat does look attractive, he says, is relative valuation. The equity risk premium, a metric that compares the valuation of stocks to bonds, remains at a level that has historically corresponded with stocks outperforming bonds on a 12-month basis, he says.\nThe chart\n\nA study finds that narcissistic chief executives drive fewer, but larger, mergers and acquisitions. But how do you identify narcissism? By studying conference calls, and their use of personal pronouns. \"The higher this ratio of first person personal pronouns to all personal pronouns is, the more likely it is that a CEO will try to engage in dumb outsized acquisitions that will lead to lower shareholder value,\" says Joachim Klement, the Liberum Capital strategist who also maintains his own blog.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"IVZ":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"STT":0.9,"03333":0.9,"BLK":0.9,"EGRNF":0.9,"ISBC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}