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remember721
2021-08-06

Yeah...

The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>

The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered

The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":893054547,"tweetId":"893054547","gmtCreate":1628223751789,"gmtModify":1633752434185,"author":{"id":3583172240969692,"idStr":"3583172240969692","authorId":3583172240969692,"authorIdStr":"3583172240969692","name":"remember721","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a26c470e07711af9299771c76afc97c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Yeah...</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Yeah...</body></html>","text":"Yeah...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893054547","repostId":1199377263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199377263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199377263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199377263","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered ","content":"The S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.<blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的“内部”仍然处于更糟糕的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少自6月11日以来），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.<blockquote>但只要标普图表为正且高于支撑位，建议建立“核心”多头头寸。</blockquote> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.<blockquote>第一支撑位现在大致在4370。这是SPX抛售然后反弹的最近两天的低点——7月27日和周二（是的，同一天SPX从该水平反弹，然后收于历史新高）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使它成为一个可行的支撑位。盘中历史高点4430有阻力。</blockquote> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.<blockquote>你可以从附图中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.<blockquote>突破该范围将具有重要意义。如果它向下突破，这将对SPX图表不利。在此下方，主要支撑区域位于4233点，跌破4370点后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).<blockquote>因此，SPX图表仍然是积极的，但有一个麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号（图表上的绿色“S”）。</blockquote> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.<blockquote>现在让我们看看一些包含大量股票的指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着在此期间它们一直在发出卖出信号。相对于看涨期权交易量，看跌交易量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。看起来标准比率的图表中有轻微的“波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不显著。</blockquote> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.<blockquote>这里更大的情况是，随着许多股票下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，它们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).<blockquote>自6月中旬以来，市场广度（上涨减去下跌）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管SPX在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数大盘股纳斯达克股票（FAANG股票加上微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.<blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器发出买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.<blockquote>此外，自6月11日以来，累计广度（每日涨幅减去跌幅）尚未创下历史新高。此后，SPX已连续19个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但它本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.<blockquote>纽交所52周新高继续领涨52周新低。最近，有一些孤立的日子，使用纳斯达克或“仅股票”数据，新低超过新高，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时则不然。这意味着该指标仍然看涨股市。如果纽交所新低超过新高且足够大，则会转为负值，但这种情况并未发生。</blockquote> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).<blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动性卖出信号。这发生在标准普尔20天历史波动率首先跌破8%（6月中旬），然后升至11%以上（7月下旬）。</blockquote> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.<blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。而且，VIX 200日均线仍在下降，远高于VIX的价格。上个月，VIX指数从15点缓慢“攀升”至19点，但这似乎并不是趋势的重大变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX期货的交易价格高于VIX，这些VIX期货和CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.<blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况发生变化之前，建议持有多头“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX突破4370区域将改变负面影响，但突破4430以上的历史新高将强化看涨理由。</blockquote> New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal<blockquote>新建议：有条件SPX卖出信号</blockquote> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:<blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些有关在SPX支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote> IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,<blockquote>如果SPX低于4370并在那里停留一小时，</blockquote> THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>然后买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以下跌25点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> In addition,<blockquote>此外，</blockquote> IF SPX closes below 4370,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘低于4370，</blockquote> THEN buy another bear spread:<blockquote>然后再买一个熊市价差：</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以较低25点的价格卖出1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.<blockquote>请注意，在没有满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘低于4370）可能会发生（如果SPX在交易日晚些时候跌破4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入2个这样的价差。</blockquote> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.<blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，请在SPX收盘价高于4430时停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-06 12:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe S&amp;P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.<blockquote>标普500指数继续加速上行。周二创下历史收盘新高。然而，市场的“内部”仍然处于更糟糕的状态。这种情况已经持续了一段时间（至少自6月11日以来），而且这种情况可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> But as long as the S&amp;P&nbsp;chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.<blockquote>但只要标普图表为正且高于支撑位，建议建立“核心”多头头寸。</blockquote> The first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.<blockquote>第一支撑位现在大致在4370。这是SPX抛售然后反弹的最近两天的低点——7月27日和周二（是的，同一天SPX从该水平反弹，然后收于历史新高）。由于它已经过双重测试，这使它成为一个可行的支撑位。盘中历史高点4430有阻力。</blockquote> You can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.<blockquote>你可以从附图中看到，自7月23日以来，SPX一直处于相当正确的交易状态——在4370到4430之间。</blockquote> A breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.<blockquote>突破该范围将具有重要意义。如果它向下突破，这将对SPX图表不利。在此下方，主要支撑区域位于4233点，跌破4370点后可能会很快受到测试。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde9899a8fd1227a022dfe59858d4c5\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> So the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).<blockquote>因此，SPX图表仍然是积极的，但有一个麦克米兰波动带（MVB）卖出信号（图表上的绿色“S”）。</blockquote> Now let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.<blockquote>现在让我们看看一些包含大量股票的指标。你会发现他们远没有那么积极。首先是仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。这些价格已经上涨了一个月，这意味着在此期间它们一直在发出卖出信号。相对于看涨期权交易量，看跌交易量一直很大，这就是导致这些比率上升的原因。看起来标准比率的图表中有轻微的“波动”，但计算机分析程序说这并不显著。</blockquote> The larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.<blockquote>这里更大的情况是，随着许多股票下跌，期权交易者一直在购买这些股票的看跌期权，迫使这些仅股票的看跌期权与看涨期权比率走高。只要比率上升，它们就会保持卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87099f2be31d9ce51b1b0c4708a9f046\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f08da61f702fd9abb483cd1d8f5b4ba\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).<blockquote>自6月中旬以来，市场广度（上涨减去下跌）一直很糟糕。也就是说，大多数股票都在下跌，尽管SPX在上涨。事实上，推动这个市场的是少数大盘股纳斯达克股票（FAANG股票加上微软是最强的股票）。</blockquote> Things have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.<blockquote>过去几周情况有所改善，因此我们的宽度振荡器发出买入信号，但仍处于负值区域。通常情况下，当SPX创下历史新高时，宽度振荡指标将进入正值区域，反映出整体市场强劲。但现在情况并非如此。</blockquote> Moreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.<blockquote>此外，自6月11日以来，累计广度（每日涨幅减去跌幅）尚未创下历史新高。此后，SPX已连续19个交易日创下收盘或盘中新高。这是一个巨大的负面市场背离，但它本身并不是卖出信号。相反，这是一个强烈的警告，要保持警惕——避免自满。</blockquote> New 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.<blockquote>纽交所52周新高继续领涨52周新低。最近，有一些孤立的日子，使用纳斯达克或“仅股票”数据，新低超过新高，但使用纽约证券交易所数据时则不然。这意味着该指标仍然看涨股市。如果纽交所新低超过新高且足够大，则会转为负值，但这种情况并未发生。</blockquote> There is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).<blockquote>还有一个已实现的波动性卖出信号。这发生在标准普尔20天历史波动率首先跌破8%（6月中旬），然后升至11%以上（7月下旬）。</blockquote> Implied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.<blockquote>另一方面，就股市而言，隐含波动率仍处于看涨状态。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。而且，VIX 200日均线仍在下降，远高于VIX的价格。上个月，VIX指数从15点缓慢“攀升”至19点，但这似乎并不是趋势的重大变化。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3501a851250cf90d4f08e0152a5d9a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构对股市仍然有利。VIX期货的交易价格高于VIX，这些VIX期货和CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote> The SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.<blockquote>SPX图表仍然是积极的。这是最重要的事实。在这种情况发生变化之前，建议持有多头“核心”头寸。围绕这一点，人们可以交易确认的信号——买入和卖出。SPX突破4370区域将改变负面影响，但突破4430以上的历史新高将强化看涨理由。</blockquote> New recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal<blockquote>新建议：有条件SPX卖出信号</blockquote> Based on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:<blockquote>根据上述文章，我们将列出一些有关在SPX支撑位被突破时采取看跌头寸的参数：</blockquote> IF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,<blockquote>如果SPX低于4370并在那里停留一小时，</blockquote> THEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>然后买入1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以下跌25点的价格卖出1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> In addition,<blockquote>此外，</blockquote> IF SPX closes below 4370,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘低于4370，</blockquote> THEN buy another bear spread:<blockquote>然后再买一个熊市价差：</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.<blockquote>并以较低25点的价格卖出1（更多）SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（27日）看跌期权。</blockquote> Note that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.<blockquote>请注意，在没有满足第一个条件的情况下，第二个条件（收盘低于4370）可能会发生（如果SPX在交易日晚些时候跌破4370）。如果是这样的话，那么在收盘时买入2个这样的价差。</blockquote> Finally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.<blockquote>最后，如果这些价差成立，请在SPX收盘价高于4430时停止所有这些熊市价差。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-looks-strong-but-these-internals-are-far-less-positive-01628176855?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199377263","content_text":"The S&P 500 index continues to accelerate to the upside. A new all-time closing high was registered on Tuesday. Yet, the “internals” of the market remain in a far worse state. This has been the case for some time (since June 11, at least), and it may continue to be the case for a while longer.\nBut as long as the S&P chart is positive and above support, a “core” long position is recommended.\nThe first support level is now roughly 4370. That was the low on the two most recent days on which SPX sold off and then rebounded – July 27 and Tuesday (yes, the same day that SPX bounced back from that level and then closed at a new all-time high). Since it has been doubly tested, that makes it a viable support level. There is resistance at 4430, the all-time intraday high.\nYou can see from the accompanying chart that SPX has been in a rather right trading since July 23 – between 4370 and 4430.\nA breakout from that range will be significant. If it were to break to the downside, that would be a negative for the SPX chart. Below there, a major support area exists at 4233, and it would likely be tested quickly after a break below 4370.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nSo the SPX chart is still positive, but there is a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal in place (green “S” on chart).\nNow let’s look at some of the indicators that encompass a larger number of stocks. You will see that they are far less positive. First are the equity-only put-call ratios. These have been rising for a month, meaning they have been on sell signals during that time. Put volume has been heavy, relative to call volume, and that is what is causing these ratios to rise. It looks like there is a slight “wiggle” in the standard ratio’s chart, but the computer analysis programs say that is not significant.\nThe larger picture here is that as many stocks have been declining, option traders have been buying puts on those stocks, forcing these equity-only put-call ratios higher. As long as the ratios are rising, they will remain on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nMarket breadth (advances minus declines) has been woeful since mid-June. That is, most stocks are going down, even though SPX is going up. In fact, what is driving this market is a handful of large-cap NASDAQ stocks (the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft are the strongest stocks).\nThings have improved a little in the last couple of weeks, and so our breadth oscillators are on buy signals, but they are still in negative territory. Normally when SPX is making new all-time highs, the breadth oscillators are will into positive territory, reflecting a strong overall market. But that is not the case now.\nMoreover, cumulative breadth (the running total of daily advances minus declines) has not made a new all-time high since June 11. SPX has made a new closing or intraday high on 19 separate trading days since then. That is a huge, negative market divergence, but it alone is not a sell signal. Rather, it is a strong warning to be alert – to avoid complacency.\nNew 52-week highs on the NYSE continue to lead new 52-week lows. Recently, there have been some isolated days where new lows exceeded new highs using NASDAQ or “stocks only” data, but not when using NYSE data. That means this indicator remains bullish for stocks. It would turn negative if NYSE new lows exceeded new highs and were sufficiently large, but that has not happened.\nThere is a realized volatility sell signal in place, as well. That occurred when the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility first fell below 8% (in mid-June) and then later rose above 11% (in late July).\nImplied volatility, on the other hand, remains in a bullish state, as far the stock market is concerned. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 remains in place. Moreover, the VIX 200-day moving average is still declining and is well above the price of VIX.There has been a slow “creep” upward by VIX, from 15 to 19 over the last month, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant change of trend.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for the stock market. The VIX futures are trading at a premium to VIX, and the term structures of those VIX futures and the CBOE Volatility Indices slope upward.\nThe SPX chart is still positive. That is the most important fact. Until that changes, a long “core” position is recommended. Around that, one can trade confirmed signals – both buy and sell. A violation of the 4370 area by SPX would change things for the negative, but a breakout to new all-time highs above 4430 would reinforce the bullish case.\nNew recommendation: Conditional SPX sell signal\nBased on the above article, we are going to lay out some parameters regarding taking a bearish position should SPX support be broken:\nIF SPX trades below 4370 and stays there for an hour,\nTHEN buy 1 SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nIn addition,\nIF SPX closes below 4370,\nTHEN buy another bear spread:\n            Buy 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 (more) SPY Aug (27th) put with a striking price 25 points lower.\nNote that it is possible that the second condition (close below 4370) could occur without the first condition being satisfied (if SPX breaks below 4370 late in a trading day). If that is the case, then buy 2 of these spreads on the close.\nFinally, if these spreads are established, stop yourself out of all of these bear spreads on an SPX close above 4430.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

The S&P 500 looks strong — but these ‘internals’ are far less positive<blockquote>标普500看起来很强劲——但这些“内部因素”远没有那么积极</blockquote>

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