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Ivylow
2021-08-09

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Opinion: Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>观点：这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>

The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the traili

Opinion: Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>观点：这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":898690958,"tweetId":"898690958","gmtCreate":1628489771774,"gmtModify":1631884842623,"author":{"id":3582161778784599,"idStr":"3582161778784599","authorId":3582161778784599,"authorIdStr":"3582161778784599","name":"Ivylow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898690958","repostId":1119793781,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119793781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628477450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119793781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-09 10:50","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>观点：这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119793781","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the traili","content":"The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;sectors.<blockquote>根据基于标普500行业过去三个月回报的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部。</blockquote> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.<blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote> This is a big change since mid-May when,as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.<blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.<blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.<blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a49a36d04808a2a9b71a01546126de\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLS\">Staples</a>, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull-market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.<blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，消费者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLS\">订书钉</a>、医疗保健和非必需消费品是过去牛市顶部之前三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.<blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这个统计量的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着有一个完美的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>行业近期回报排名与历史模式之间的一比一对应关系）至负1.0（这意味着完全反向相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.<blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate, for example,was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.”A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.<blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。例如，有一次它是准确的，那是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标信号市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，熊市在一个月后开始。当时盛行的相对实力排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>观点：这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>观点：这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarket Wacth2021-08-09 10:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;sectors.<blockquote>根据基于标普500行业过去三个月回报的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部。</blockquote> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.<blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote> This is a big change since mid-May when,as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.<blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.<blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.<blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a49a36d04808a2a9b71a01546126de\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLS\">Staples</a>, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull-market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.<blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，消费者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLS\">订书钉</a>、医疗保健和非必需消费品是过去牛市顶部之前三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.<blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这个统计量的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着有一个完美的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>行业近期回报排名与历史模式之间的一比一对应关系）至负1.0（这意味着完全反向相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.<blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate, for example,was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.”A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.<blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。例如，有一次它是准确的，那是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标信号市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，熊市在一个月后开始。当时盛行的相对实力排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=article_inline\">Market Wacth</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119793781","content_text":"The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 sectors.\nOver the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.\nThis is a big change since mid-May when,as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.\nNow, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.\nAccording to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.\nIn contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull-market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.\nTo quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.\nIn mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.\nNeedless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate, for example,was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.”A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AONE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AONE.U":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}