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2021-08-05

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What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>

The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up

What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":899359383,"tweetId":"899359383","gmtCreate":1628162873742,"gmtModify":1633753048239,"author":{"id":3574047516831606,"idStr":"3574047516831606","authorId":3574047516831606,"authorIdStr":"3574047516831606","name":"5d285913","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899359383","repostId":1121866583,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121866583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628158108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121866583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121866583","media":"zacks","summary":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based up","content":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在2021年剩余时间里，处于有利地位的行业的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪ETF具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过5%，自去年9月以来也没有出现过实际的回调（回调10%或更多），一旦下跌10%，就会迅速回升。达到了大关。尽管这一蓝筹股基准没有出现任何实质性抛售，但迄今为止，其505个成分股中超过90%在2021年经历了10%或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开放的投资组合中轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又回到成长型股票。下面烛台中Vanguard的增长型ETF（VUG Quick QuoteVUG-免费报告）及其以橙线为代表的价值型ETF（VTV Quick QuoteVTV-免费报告）清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两种股票组合之间年初至今的表现差异表明，投资者和交易者并没有不分青红皂白地买入。这意味着每一个交易决策（又名选股）都包含判断，导致市场收缩过度扩张的区域，并重新分配到相对更便宜的空间。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16个多月来，标普500的年化回报率一直保持在75%以上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至无法接近可持续。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去30年来，标普500平均每年上涨12%。然而，年均增长率已经像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近15%，如果缩小到过去5年，这些年涨幅将超过16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市的平均年涨幅不断扩大。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占的份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将持续加速。然而，标普500 75%的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的副业资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-免费报告），货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月内进行整合，也就是滚动修正。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现出色，盈利飙升105%，销售额同比增长22%以上。91%的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过86%的公司超出了营收预测。估值丰厚的科技行业第二季度业绩令人惊叹，其中100%超出每股收益预期，超过96%超出收入，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，而在如此高的市盈率下，估值压缩可能是有序的。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们还是看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。对新冠疫情的担忧和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，替补席上的大量现金仍在发挥作用，每次小幅下跌都会立即被买入。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股票市场，而且他们也有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场实际利率为负，大宗商品价格极高，加密货币价格高度波动，大多数上市公司都能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（如第二季度利润率结果所示）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到滚动调整，反映在股市盘整上，而不是分析师一直假设的10%以上的调整。一段时间（一两个月）的区间指数（波动小于10%）将产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效应，因为收益将在价格保持低迷的情况下增长，导致市盈率倍数缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计大盘将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。我仍然看好2021年剩余5个月的股市，并相信标普500今年收盘价将高于今天的交易价格。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzacks2021-08-05 18:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.<blockquote>随着这16个月牛市的成熟，市场变得越来越理性，基于指数的上涨潜力每增加一个百分比就会减少。这是一个选股者的市场。在2021年剩余时间里，处于有利地位的行业的优质股票将比大多数指数跟踪ETF具有更高的上涨潜力。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.<blockquote>今年到目前为止，标普500的回调幅度还没有超过5%，自去年9月以来也没有出现过实际的回调（回调10%或更多），一旦下跌10%，就会迅速回升。达到了大关。尽管这一蓝筹股基准没有出现任何实质性抛售，但迄今为止，其505个成分股中超过90%在2021年经历了10%或更大的调整。</blockquote> Rotations In &amp; Out of Growth &amp; Value<blockquote>增长与价值的进出轮换</blockquote> Investors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.<blockquote>投资者通过在年初重新开放的投资组合中轮换进出成长型和价值型板块来保持股市的牛市势头，然后在5月中旬收益率飙升开始消退时又回到成长型股票。下面烛台中Vanguard的增长型ETF（VUG Quick QuoteVUG-免费报告）及其以橙线为代表的价值型ETF（VTV Quick QuoteVTV-免费报告）清楚地说明了这种业绩偏差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80d0680692ab8ada950167692164017e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Image Source: TradingView<blockquote>图片来源：TradingView</blockquote> The year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors &amp; traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.<blockquote>这两种股票组合之间年初至今的表现差异表明，投资者和交易者并没有不分青红皂白地买入。这意味着每一个交易决策（又名选股）都包含判断，导致市场收缩过度扩张的区域，并重新分配到相对更便宜的空间。</blockquote> Accelerating Annualized Returns<blockquote>加速年化回报</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.<blockquote>16个多月来，标普500的年化回报率一直保持在75%以上。不幸的是，这种回报率甚至无法接近可持续。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.<blockquote>过去30年来，标普500平均每年上涨12%。然而，年均增长率已经像美酒一样陈年。这一蓝筹股基准在过去十年中的平均年化回报率接近15%，如果缩小到过去5年，这些年涨幅将超过16%。</blockquote> The stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&amp;P 500 isn't viable.<blockquote>由于技术的快速发展不断加速公司和我们经济的增长前景，股市的平均年涨幅不断扩大。随着科技在公共股票市场中所占的份额越来越大，我预计未来十年年化回报率将持续加速。然而，标普500 75%的年化回报率是不可行的。</blockquote> There may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.<blockquote>可能有太多的副业资本（根据高盛（GS Quick QuoteGS-免费报告），货币市场基金达到创纪录的5.5万亿美元，市场无法完全纠正。尽管如此，我们仍将在未来几个月内进行整合，也就是滚动修正。</blockquote> We are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.<blockquote>我们现在正进入这个成熟市场周期的关键点。到目前为止，第二季度财报季表现出色，盈利飙升105%，销售额同比增长22%以上。91%的报告公司超出了每股收益预期，超过86%的公司超出了营收预测。估值丰厚的科技行业第二季度业绩令人惊叹，其中100%超出每股收益预期，超过96%超出收入，这似乎证明了该领域的泡沫估值是合理的。</blockquote> However, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.<blockquote>然而，分析师预计，随着第二季度财报季的结束，盈利增长峰值将成为过去，而在如此高的市盈率下，估值压缩可能是有序的。即使有这些出色的季度报告和不断增长的全年预期，我们还是看到了过度的利润拉动和防御性市场定位。对新冠疫情的担忧和货币政策的预期转变也打压了看涨情绪。</blockquote> Nevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，替补席上的大量现金仍在发挥作用，每次小幅下跌都会立即被买入。美国全国消费者储蓄率远高于过去十年的平均水平。美国人不仅以创纪录的速度参与公共股票市场，而且他们也有充足的流动性来继续购买他们喜欢的股票。</blockquote> Stocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).<blockquote>股票仍然是最具吸引力的资产类别，债券市场实际利率为负，大宗商品价格极高，加密货币价格高度波动，大多数上市公司都能够轻松转移到终端市场的定价压力（如第二季度利润率结果所示）。</blockquote> I expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).<blockquote>我预计会看到滚动调整，反映在股市盘整上，而不是分析师一直假设的10%以上的调整。一段时间（一两个月）的区间指数（波动小于10%）将产生与全面修正相同的估值压缩效应，因为收益将在价格保持低迷的情况下增长，导致市盈率倍数缩小（又名滚动修正）。</blockquote> I foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&amp;P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.<blockquote>我预计大盘将横盘整理，直到Delta变体不再是全球关注的问题。我仍然看好2021年剩余5个月的股市，并相信标普500今年收盘价将高于今天的交易价格。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004\">zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1773639/whats-next-for-the-sp-500-10-pullback-or-rolling-correction?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID09-txt-1278004","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121866583","content_text":"The market has become increasingly rational as this 16-month bull market matures, and index-based upside potential dwindles every additional percentage they rally. This is a stock picker's market. Quality stocks in well-positioned sectors will have much higher upside potential than most index-tracking ETFs for the remainder of 2021.\nThe S&P 500 hasn't seen a pullback of more than 5% so far this year and hasn't seen an actual correction (a pullback of 10% or more) since last September, which was quickly bought back up once that down 10% mark was reached. Despite this blue-chip benchmark not exhibiting any material sell-off, over 90% of its 505 components have experienced a 10% or larger correction in 2021 thus far.\nRotations In & Out of Growth & Value\nInvestors have kept the stock market's bull drive alive by rotating in and out of growth and value sectors as portfolio's position for the reopening at the beginning of the year, then turned back to growth stocks when the yield surge began to fade mid-May. This performance deviation is clearly illustrated below with Vanguard's growth-oriented ETF (VUG Quick QuoteVUG-Free Report) in the candlesticks and its value-focused ETF (VTV Quick QuoteVTV-Free Report) represented by the orange line.\n\nImage Source: TradingView\nThe year-to-date performance divergence between these two stock groupings illustrates that investors & traders are not buying indiscriminately. Meaning that judgment is going into every trade decision (aka stock picking), causing the market to deflate overstretched areas and reallocate into relatively cheaper spaces.\nAccelerating Annualized Returns\nThe S&P 500 has remained above an extraordinary 75% annualized return trendline for over 16 months now. Unfortunately, this rate of return isn't even close to sustainable.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged 12% upside a year over the past 3 decades. However, the average annual growth rate has aged like fine wine. This blue-chip benchmark has demonstrated an average annualized return of nearly 15% over the past decade, and if narrowed down to just the last 5 years, those annual gains go up to over 16%.\nThe stock market is experiencing swelling average annual gains because of the rapid acceleration of technology that continuously accelerates companies' and our economy's growth outlook. I expect to see continued annualized return acceleration over the next decade as tech makes up a growing portion of the public equity market. Nevertheless, a rolling 75% annualized return out of the S&P 500 isn't viable.\nThere may be too much sideline capital (a record 5.5 trillion in money market funds, according to Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS-Free Report) for the market to entirely correct. Still, we are due for consolidation over the next few months, aka a rolling correction.\nWe are now entering a pivotal point in this maturing market cycle. Q2 earnings season has been tremendous thus far, with earnings soaring 105% on sales up over 22% from a year ago. 91% of the reported companies beating EPS estimates, and over 86% beat top-line projections. The richly valued tech sector has demonstrated awe-inspiring Q2 results, with 100% of them exceeding EPS estimates and over 96% beating on revenues, which seemingly justified frothy valuations in the space.\nHowever, analysts are projecting peak earnings growth to be in the rear-view mirror as Q2 earnings season wraps up, and at these rich multiples, valuation compression may be in order. Even with these exceptional quarterly reports and growing full-year estimates, we have seen an undue level of profit-pulling and defensive market positioning. The resurging COVID fears and anticipated shift in monetary policy also weigh on bullish sentiment.\nNevertheless, the enormous amount of cash on the bench is still being put to work, with every marginal dip being bought right back up. The national consumer savings rate in the US sits sizably above the last decade's average. Americans are not only participating in the public equity market at a record rate, but they also have plenty of liquidity to keep buying their favorite stocks.\nStocks remain the most attractive asset class, with negative real interest rates in the bond market, sky-high commodity prices, highly volatile crypto prices, and pricing pressure that most publicly traded companies have been able to easily transfer to their end-markets (illustrated by Q2 margin results).\nI expect to see a rolling correction, reflected by a consolidating stock market, instead of this 10%+ correction that analysts have been postulating. Range-bound indexes(less than 10% swings) for some time (month or two) would have the same valuation compressing effect as an all-out correction because earnings would be growing while prices remain muted, leading to shrinking P/E multiples (aka rolling correction).\nI foresee a sideways broader market trade until the Delta-variant is no longer a global concern. I remain bullish on stocks for the remaining 5 months of 2021 and am confident that the S&P 500 will close out the year higher than it is trading at today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3096,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

What's Next For The S&P 500: 10% Pullback or Rolling Correction?<blockquote>标普500的下一步是什么：10%回调还是滚动修正？</blockquote>

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