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百事可乐wh
随意投资的金牛女
IP属地:浙江
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百事可乐wh
08-01
//
@BTC法天象地
:今年美股跌的老惨了!可怕的是指数还在高位!如果指数回调,个股是不是归零啊!真恶心
“YOLO”散户反被套!动量因子创四年最大回撤,最热抱团股一个月蒸发25%
百事可乐wh
08-01
//
@Mediator
:Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。
“大空头”继续狙击AI!Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位,维持做空特斯拉、Palantir
百事可乐wh
07-22
//
@熊猫校长 Ming
: AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的"淘金热"。 淘金的人,是
OpenAI
、
Anthropic
这些烧钱做
大模型
的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的"铲子"就一直供不应求。 这就是它
财报
好看的原因:营收创纪录、
毛利率
接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种"卖铲子"的公司口袋里。
@熊猫校长 Ming:台积电财报炸了,赚的钱却留不住?
百事可乐wh
07-22
//
@Blackland
:有什么意义,ai烂大街了,偶尔用下和庞大资本开始比不算什么
港股直击|阿里大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能
百事可乐wh
07-22
//
@Mediator
:护盘只是让指数缓步下跌,不至于情绪杀跌导致买盘直接消失,让指数跌停造成机构重大损失,而不是来改变市场趋势的,趋势不变。 市场趋势只和经济预期有关,目前就是AI主线的行业预期,一旦AI出现基本面松动,谁来兜底救市都没有用。
两大央企合计出手逾600亿元稳市,中证监今日召开座谈会释放积极信号
百事可乐wh
07-22
//
@买高价值
:垃圾国家队,真恶心。
港股直击 | 智谱午后涨近30%,落地1GW国产算力中心并完成收购中科加禾
百事可乐wh
07-22
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
摩根大通戴蒙称市场低估风险,当前价格下他不会买入股票或美国国债
百事可乐wh
07-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@交易员说:为什么越来越多全球交易者开始选择 ATFX?答案可能不是点差
百事可乐wh
07-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@跨境派:从深圳到沪甬,亚马逊GWD让“下一代跨境链”加速落地
百事可乐wh
07-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@一追再追:上半年市场只关注“买算力、建数据中心”的资本开支扩张,下半年核心矛盾转为算力能否实现盈利变现,AI云是全年最重要观测变量。上半年市场一致看多算力扩张,却忽视巨头烧钱隐忧,Meta传出租闲算力切入云服务,直接引发华尔街多空分歧:大摩看好AI云作为算力回本渠道,美银则持续警示数据中心、GPU、电力等持续巨额开支压力。这一分歧将贯穿下半年行情,直接决定AI板块估值中枢。重点跟踪三大信号:各大科技巨头云业务营收增速、AI算力租赁毛利率、企业客户长期算力采购合约规模。若Meta、阿里等云厂商AI相关收入持续放量,市场会重新定价整个AI产业链;反之若资本开支增速远高于营收增长,高位算力硬件将迎来持续估值下修。AI已走完单纯基建炒作阶段,下半年投资标准从“谁有GPU”变为“谁能靠AI赚钱”,云服务、企业定制大模型、行业解决方案企业估值弹性远大於单纯芯片厂商。
百事可乐wh
07-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@挖掘大黑马:【港股打新】晶合集成 滨化股份 永康控股:永康才是王者!
百事可乐wh
06-27
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@锦缎:最新一篇博客背后,黄仁勋的深度思考
百事可乐wh
06-27
理性思考投资
@王博雅投资:停在哪:余额宝→债基→红利→标普→纳指→纳科→七巨头→英伟达→······
百事可乐wh
06-27
投资英伟达。
@聪明投资人:黄仁勋最新发声,AI的投资回报之争已经结束
百事可乐wh
06-19
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@聪明投资人:44年只有5年亏过!“安全边际之父”卡拉曼罕见对话,谈及错失Palantir百亿机会、如何参与AI以及当下投资的三个原则
百事可乐wh
06-19
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@Fiona第一线:SpaceX 今晚挂牌:95 倍 PS、年亏 49 亿、散户接走 30%——我一股不碰,但盯收盘
百事可乐wh
06-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@小虎老师:🚀 SpaceX IPO 终极解码:$SPCX 6月12日登陆纳斯达克,2万亿估值是太空淘金还是马斯克溢价?
百事可乐wh
06-04
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@小米死多头:来看看老巫婆最新持仓,跑赢标普20%,不过还是不如我们大川子
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
$博通(AVGO)$
$礼来(LLY)$
$摩根大通(JPM)$
百事可乐wh
05-27
我的过去
百事可乐wh
05-21
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@晚点LatePost:当资金、产能与 CPO 同时收紧,光模块还有多少安全边际?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197270668289212\">@BTC法天象地</a>:今年美股跌的老惨了!可怕的是指数还在高位!如果指数回调,个股是不是归零啊!真恶心","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197270668289212\">@BTC法天象地</a>:今年美股跌的老惨了!可怕的是指数还在高位!如果指数回调,个股是不是归零啊!真恶心","text":"//@BTC法天象地:今年美股跌的老惨了!可怕的是指数还在高位!如果指数回调,个股是不是归零啊!真恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591884535206440","repostId":"2653080385","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2653080385","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784902636,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2653080385?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-24 22:17","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"“YOLO”散户反被套!动量因子创四年最大回撤,最热抱团股一个月蒸发25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653080385","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"动量交易7月遭遇四年来最惨回撤,散户成为最大受害者,热门持仓篮子较6月高点跌逾25%,散户净买入降至疫情以来最低。尽管AI疑虑等因素引发拥挤交易瓦解,但华尔街认为抛售已过度,动量股正释放强劲反弹信号。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>动量交易的急速崩塌,正在重创其最忠实的拥趸——散户投资者。</p>\n<p>追踪散户最爱持仓的股票篮子本月跌幅创2022年以来最差,Jefferies编制的罗素1000高散户参与度篮子自6月以来已累计下跌逾25%。</p>\n<p>彭博追踪的11个量化因子中,动量因子7月表现垫底,成为本轮市场调整中受伤最深的策略。<strong>散户标志性的"YOLO"(你只活一次)式追涨操作,在这个月遭遇了正面冲击。</strong></p>\n<p>多重利空叠加是此次动量交易崩塌的主因:对人工智能巨额投资回报的疑虑促使对冲基金以创纪录速度平仓科技头寸,伊朗局势重燃以及美联储利率路径的不确定性进一步打压了这一已严重拥挤的交易。散户的市场参与度随之明显降温——Vanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已跌至新冠疫情以来最低水平。</p>\n<h2>动量因子遭遇四年最大回撤,散户首当其冲</h2>\n<p>本月动量交易的溃败,对散户投资者造成了尤为直接的打击。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> Markets和Marvell等散户重仓股均在其中,<strong>相关篮子本月跌幅为2022年以来最大。</strong></p>\n<p>Vanda Research全球宏观策略师Viraj Patel指出,"半导体和AI硬件股票一直是动量策略的核心驱动力,这些名字在散户投资组合中由来已久。"正是这种高度集中的持仓结构,使得动量因子的回撤对散户的杀伤力远超其他群体。</p>\n<h2>多重利空叠加,拥挤交易加速瓦解</h2>\n<p>此次动量交易的崩塌并非单一因素所致。</p>\n<p>据彭博报道,对AI投资回报前景的疑虑首先触发了对冲基金以创纪录速度削减科技头寸;随后,伊朗局势的再度紧张以及市场对美联储利率走向的担忧,进一步侵蚀了投资者对这一已高度拥挤交易的信心。</p>\n<p>在板块层面,科技类ETF遭遇大规模资金外流。</p>\n<h2>散户参与度降至疫情以来最低,但并未全面撤退</h2>\n<p>散户的市场活跃度在此轮冲击中明显收缩。</p>\n<p>Vanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已降至新冠疫情以来最低水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>证券数据则显示,截至本周三的当周散户资金流入总额为57亿美元,低于过去12个月68亿美元的周均水平。</p>\n<p>摩根大通的Arun Jain在报告中写道,"散户参与度的放缓,与近期市场围绕动量回撤所呈现的紧张情绪高度吻合。"</p>\n<p>不过,摩根大通数据同时显示,散户并未全面出逃,而是变得更加挑剔。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>仍持续吸引可观的净买入,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则承受了最大的卖出压力。Patel表示,"<strong>散户资金流向正变得非常分散。不像去年'买入一切AI'的逻辑,现在散户的选股非常谨慎。</strong>"</p>\n<h2>华尔街建议逢低布局,动量因子现强劲反弹信号</h2>\n<p>急速下跌已促使华尔街多家交易台建议客户逢低买入。</p>\n<p>瑞银证券的Michael Romano在客户报告中写道,此轮抛售可能已消化了大部分投机性泡沫,或已为价格筑底。<strong>美国银行交易台则敦促客户买入美国动量股,认为经历一轮获利了结后,该板块已进入具有吸引力的入场时机。</strong></p>\n<p>从近期数据来看,反弹信号已经出现。<strong>美国银行的美国动量股篮子过去三个交易日上涨8.9%,为2024年11月以来最大三日涨幅;瑞银的动量指标更是飙升11%,创2022年以来最大三日涨幅。</strong></p>\n<p>Patel表示,"动量交易——以及散户——经历了一段过山车行情。但一旦卖出压力消退、买方罢工结束,实现有意义反弹的条件将愈发充分。"</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“YOLO”散户反被套!动量因子创四年最大回撤,最热抱团股一个月蒸发25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“YOLO”散户反被套!动量因子创四年最大回撤,最热抱团股一个月蒸发25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-24 22:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>动量交易的急速崩塌,正在重创其最忠实的拥趸——散户投资者。</p>\n<p>追踪散户最爱持仓的股票篮子本月跌幅创2022年以来最差,Jefferies编制的罗素1000高散户参与度篮子自6月以来已累计下跌逾25%。</p>\n<p>彭博追踪的11个量化因子中,动量因子7月表现垫底,成为本轮市场调整中受伤最深的策略。<strong>散户标志性的"YOLO"(你只活一次)式追涨操作,在这个月遭遇了正面冲击。</strong></p>\n<p>多重利空叠加是此次动量交易崩塌的主因:对人工智能巨额投资回报的疑虑促使对冲基金以创纪录速度平仓科技头寸,伊朗局势重燃以及美联储利率路径的不确定性进一步打压了这一已严重拥挤的交易。散户的市场参与度随之明显降温——Vanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已跌至新冠疫情以来最低水平。</p>\n<h2>动量因子遭遇四年最大回撤,散户首当其冲</h2>\n<p>本月动量交易的溃败,对散户投资者造成了尤为直接的打击。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a> Markets和Marvell等散户重仓股均在其中,<strong>相关篮子本月跌幅为2022年以来最大。</strong></p>\n<p>Vanda Research全球宏观策略师Viraj Patel指出,"半导体和AI硬件股票一直是动量策略的核心驱动力,这些名字在散户投资组合中由来已久。"正是这种高度集中的持仓结构,使得动量因子的回撤对散户的杀伤力远超其他群体。</p>\n<h2>多重利空叠加,拥挤交易加速瓦解</h2>\n<p>此次动量交易的崩塌并非单一因素所致。</p>\n<p>据彭博报道,对AI投资回报前景的疑虑首先触发了对冲基金以创纪录速度削减科技头寸;随后,伊朗局势的再度紧张以及市场对美联储利率走向的担忧,进一步侵蚀了投资者对这一已高度拥挤交易的信心。</p>\n<p>在板块层面,科技类ETF遭遇大规模资金外流。</p>\n<h2>散户参与度降至疫情以来最低,但并未全面撤退</h2>\n<p>散户的市场活跃度在此轮冲击中明显收缩。</p>\n<p>Vanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已降至新冠疫情以来最低水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>证券数据则显示,截至本周三的当周散户资金流入总额为57亿美元,低于过去12个月68亿美元的周均水平。</p>\n<p>摩根大通的Arun Jain在报告中写道,"散户参与度的放缓,与近期市场围绕动量回撤所呈现的紧张情绪高度吻合。"</p>\n<p>不过,摩根大通数据同时显示,散户并未全面出逃,而是变得更加挑剔。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>仍持续吸引可观的净买入,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则承受了最大的卖出压力。Patel表示,"<strong>散户资金流向正变得非常分散。不像去年'买入一切AI'的逻辑,现在散户的选股非常谨慎。</strong>"</p>\n<h2>华尔街建议逢低布局,动量因子现强劲反弹信号</h2>\n<p>急速下跌已促使华尔街多家交易台建议客户逢低买入。</p>\n<p>瑞银证券的Michael Romano在客户报告中写道,此轮抛售可能已消化了大部分投机性泡沫,或已为价格筑底。<strong>美国银行交易台则敦促客户买入美国动量股,认为经历一轮获利了结后,该板块已进入具有吸引力的入场时机。</strong></p>\n<p>从近期数据来看,反弹信号已经出现。<strong>美国银行的美国动量股篮子过去三个交易日上涨8.9%,为2024年11月以来最大三日涨幅;瑞银的动量指标更是飙升11%,创2022年以来最大三日涨幅。</strong></p>\n<p>Patel表示,"动量交易——以及散户——经历了一段过山车行情。但一旦卖出压力消退、买方罢工结束,实现有意义反弹的条件将愈发充分。"</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac494ab6270d0f00852bcbe4f20cfa3","relate_stocks":{"HOOI":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income HOOD ETF","HOOW":"Roundhill HOOD WeeklyPay™ ETF","MVLL":"2倍做多MRVL ETF-GraniteShares","BK4588":"碎股","QMOM":"Alpha Architect U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETF","HOOX":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-Defiance","HOII":"REX HOOD Growth & Income ETF","ROBN":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-T-REX","HOOY":"HOOD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","MRVU":"Direxion Daily MRVL Bull 2X ETF","HODU":"Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF","HOOZ":"2倍做空HOOD ETF-Defiance","MTUM":"MSCI美国动量因素ETF-iShares Edge","HOOD":"Robinhood","HOYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST HOOD ETF","SEIM":"SEI Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum Factor ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","JOET":"Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF","XMVM":"Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF","HOOG":"2倍做多HOOD ETF- Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2653080385","content_text":"动量交易的急速崩塌,正在重创其最忠实的拥趸——散户投资者。\n追踪散户最爱持仓的股票篮子本月跌幅创2022年以来最差,Jefferies编制的罗素1000高散户参与度篮子自6月以来已累计下跌逾25%。\n彭博追踪的11个量化因子中,动量因子7月表现垫底,成为本轮市场调整中受伤最深的策略。散户标志性的\"YOLO\"(你只活一次)式追涨操作,在这个月遭遇了正面冲击。\n多重利空叠加是此次动量交易崩塌的主因:对人工智能巨额投资回报的疑虑促使对冲基金以创纪录速度平仓科技头寸,伊朗局势重燃以及美联储利率路径的不确定性进一步打压了这一已严重拥挤的交易。散户的市场参与度随之明显降温——Vanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已跌至新冠疫情以来最低水平。\n动量因子遭遇四年最大回撤,散户首当其冲\n本月动量交易的溃败,对散户投资者造成了尤为直接的打击。\nRobinhood Markets和Marvell等散户重仓股均在其中,相关篮子本月跌幅为2022年以来最大。\nVanda Research全球宏观策略师Viraj Patel指出,\"半导体和AI硬件股票一直是动量策略的核心驱动力,这些名字在散户投资组合中由来已久。\"正是这种高度集中的持仓结构,使得动量因子的回撤对散户的杀伤力远超其他群体。\n多重利空叠加,拥挤交易加速瓦解\n此次动量交易的崩塌并非单一因素所致。\n据彭博报道,对AI投资回报前景的疑虑首先触发了对冲基金以创纪录速度削减科技头寸;随后,伊朗局势的再度紧张以及市场对美联储利率走向的担忧,进一步侵蚀了投资者对这一已高度拥挤交易的信心。\n在板块层面,科技类ETF遭遇大规模资金外流。\n散户参与度降至疫情以来最低,但并未全面撤退\n散户的市场活跃度在此轮冲击中明显收缩。\nVanda Research数据显示,个股周度滚动净买入额已降至新冠疫情以来最低水平。摩根大通证券数据则显示,截至本周三的当周散户资金流入总额为57亿美元,低于过去12个月68亿美元的周均水平。\n摩根大通的Arun Jain在报告中写道,\"散户参与度的放缓,与近期市场围绕动量回撤所呈现的紧张情绪高度吻合。\"\n不过,摩根大通数据同时显示,散户并未全面出逃,而是变得更加挑剔。\n微软和英伟达仍持续吸引可观的净买入,而苹果和特斯拉则承受了最大的卖出压力。Patel表示,\"散户资金流向正变得非常分散。不像去年'买入一切AI'的逻辑,现在散户的选股非常谨慎。\"\n华尔街建议逢低布局,动量因子现强劲反弹信号\n急速下跌已促使华尔街多家交易台建议客户逢低买入。\n瑞银证券的Michael Romano在客户报告中写道,此轮抛售可能已消化了大部分投机性泡沫,或已为价格筑底。美国银行交易台则敦促客户买入美国动量股,认为经历一轮获利了结后,该板块已进入具有吸引力的入场时机。\n从近期数据来看,反弹信号已经出现。美国银行的美国动量股篮子过去三个交易日上涨8.9%,为2024年11月以来最大三日涨幅;瑞银的动量指标更是飙升11%,创2022年以来最大三日涨幅。\nPatel表示,\"动量交易——以及散户——经历了一段过山车行情。但一旦卖出压力消退、买方罢工结束,实现有意义反弹的条件将愈发充分。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOW":0.6,"MRVU":0.6,"HOOY":0.6,"HOOX":0.6,"HOOD":2,"QMOM":1.5,"HODU":0.6,"HOOI":0.6,"MRVL":2,"MVLL":0.6,"JOET":1.5,"HOYY":0.6,"MTUM":1.5,"SEIM":1.5,"ROBN":0.6,"HOOG":0.6,"HOOZ":0.6,"XMVM":1.5,"HOII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591877170230184,"gmtCreate":1785529437991,"gmtModify":1785529440396,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3498680662745699\">@Mediator</a>:Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3498680662745699\">@Mediator</a>:Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。","text":"//@Mediator:Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591877170230184","repostId":"2654842068","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2654842068","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785047083,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2654842068?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-26 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”继续狙击AI!Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位,维持做空特斯拉、Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2654842068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Burry发文披露最新持仓动向,扩大对美光、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位,同时新增做空卡特彼勒,并维持做空特斯拉、Palantir及持有纳斯达克100看跌期权。他认为英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户,而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"大空头"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票,并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注,其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向,显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位,同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示,<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户,而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动,并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时,他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变,并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry此前曾表示,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划,是半导体行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始",并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头:美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示,<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算,已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上,Burry措辞直接。他表示,<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动,相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露,未来收入"大部分通过循环安排融资"</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是,这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道,Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光,并表示"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解",同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空,建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求,而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外,在维持原有空头仓位方面,Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头,并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位"自己在慢慢缩小"</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空,并继续持有QQQ看跌期权,表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看,Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%,英伟达上涨约10%。不过,Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成,分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅,与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时,Burry也在积极布局多头仓位,且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入"相当数量"的Flutter Entertainment,并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道:"将FLUT和DKNG合并来看,作为对预测市场的一次押注,两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。"此外,他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>,买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时,Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域,折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”继续狙击AI!Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位,维持做空特斯拉、Palantir</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”继续狙击AI!Michael Burry扩大英伟达、美光空头仓位,维持做空特斯拉、Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-26 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"大空头"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票,并维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的空头押注,其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向,显示他<strong>进一步扩大了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位,同时新增做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88feab16c1c637e5f7c39eb4fb752f9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"368\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他明确表示,<strong>英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户,而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动,并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。</strong>与此同时,他<strong>对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变,并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry此前曾表示,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划,是半导体行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始",并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">扩大半导体空头:美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示,<strong>SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算,已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在英伟达的做空逻辑上,Burry措辞直接。他表示,<strong>目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动,相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露,未来收入"大部分通过循环安排融资"</strong>。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是,这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道,Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光,并表示"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解",同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Burry对AI相关板块的看空,建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。</strong>他认为,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求,而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期"由盛转衰的开始"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外,在维持原有空头仓位方面,Burry表示<strong>尚未平仓特斯拉空头,并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位"自己在慢慢缩小"</strong>——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空,并继续持有QQQ看跌期权,表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从今年以来的股价表现来看,Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%,英伟达上涨约10%。不过,Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成,分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅,与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839c9c1dcef2800f837df02e079a4f9c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在做空AI的同时,Burry也在积极布局多头仓位,且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入"相当数量"的Flutter Entertainment,并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry在文章中写道:"将FLUT和DKNG合并来看,作为对预测市场的一次押注,两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。"此外,他还增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOH\">Molina Healthcare</a>,买入价格为197.02美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时,Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域,折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fa826a3925ac5d5f18b0f16bb748d","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0174119429.USD":"T ROWE PRICE US LARGE CAP GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0342679015.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY UNCONSTRAINED \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON 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INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777945","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2654842068","content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry再度加码做空美光等AI相关股票,并维持对特斯拉和Palantir的空头押注,其对半导体板块的看空逻辑正受到市场越来越多的关注。Burry于当地时间7月25日在Substack发文披露最新持仓动向,显示他进一步扩大了对美光科技、英伟达及费城半导体ETF的空头仓位,同时新增做空卡特彼勒。他明确表示,英伟达当前及未来的大量需求并非来自终端客户,而是通过表外融资安排循环驱动,并援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告加以佐证。与此同时,他对特斯拉和Palantir的空头仓位保持不变,并继续持有纳斯达克100 ETF的看跌期权。此次披露正值半导体板块承压之际。华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry此前曾表示,三星和SK海力士公布的韩国半导体资本支出计划,是半导体行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\",并预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,认为AI基础设施相关公司估值已严重偏高。扩大半导体空头:美光、英伟达、SOXX齐齐加码Burry在Substack文章中披露,他以每股933.86美元的价格进一步做空美光科技,以210.28美元的价格增持英伟达空头仓位,并以535.83美元加仓SOXX空头。他表示,SOXX空头仓位与其持有的看跌期权合并计算,已构成其投资组合中的一个大型仓位。在英伟达的做空逻辑上,Burry措辞直接。他表示,目前英伟达大量需求并非由真实终端客户驱动,相关需求的融资安排游离于资产负债表之外且未予披露,未来收入\"大部分通过循环安排融资\"。他援引2026年国际清算银行年度报告作为支撑依据。值得注意的是,这并非Burry首次出手做空美光。华尔街见闻文章写道,Burry此前曾在1051.87美元的价位做空美光,并表示\"对这类情形的最终结局有相当清晰的了解\",同时还增加了另外五个做空仓位。Burry对AI相关板块的看空,建立在对行业需求真实性的质疑之上。他认为,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实的终端需求,而是通过不透明的融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。华尔街见闻文章此前写道,Burry预计半导体板块将面临约30%的回调,并将三星和SK海力士的资本支出扩张计划视为行业景气周期\"由盛转衰的开始\"。另外,在维持原有空头仓位方面,Burry表示尚未平仓特斯拉空头,并以轻描淡写的口吻称该仓位\"自己在慢慢缩小\"——暗示特斯拉股价下跌已令其空头仓位的名义规模自然收缩。他同时维持对Palantir的做空,并继续持有QQQ看跌期权,表明其对整体科技板块的看空立场未有松动。从今年以来的股价表现来看,Burry的部分空头押注面临一定压力。美光年内累计涨幅接近200%,英伟达上涨约10%。不过,Palantir、特斯拉和DraftKings年内均已下跌逾三成,分别录得约34%、33%和34%的跌幅,与Burry的看空方向基本吻合。在做空AI的同时,Burry也在积极布局多头仓位,且方向集中于体育博彩领域。他以100.72美元买入\"相当数量\"的Flutter Entertainment,并以23.07美元买入DraftKings。Burry在文章中写道:\"将FLUT和DKNG合并来看,作为对预测市场的一次押注,两者合计构成我较大的仓位之一。\"此外,他还增持了Molina Healthcare,买入价格为197.02美元。这一多头布局与其空头逻辑形成鲜明对比——在看空AI基础设施泡沫的同时,Burry将资金转向与科技热潮相关性较低的消费及医疗领域,折射出其对当前市场结构的整体判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FTXL":0.6,"09366":0.6,"METV":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"TESL":0.6,"DKUP":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"DKNX":0.6,"SHLD":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"DKNG":1.84,"ROM":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"WATS":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"LIT":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"WLDR":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"FDRV":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TSLA":1.89,"SHOC":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"EGGY":0.6,"GUNZ":0.6,"07388":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"IDRV":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"EMSF":0.6,"DRMY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"BOBP":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"BETZ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"PLT":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"MU":1.94,"AIFD":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"VT":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"WANT":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"PLTD":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"FXL":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"DRAY":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"07366":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"USD":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"RULE":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"HBMX":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"PLTR":1.87,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"07766":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"ODDS":0.6,"EYES":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"SMOG":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"09766":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"THMR":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588352513720512,"gmtCreate":1784670849625,"gmtModify":1784670854923,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3459023715752256\">@熊猫校长 Ming</a>: AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1992840817027112960&word=OpenAI\">OpenAI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993354704482361344&word=Anthropic\">Anthropic</a> 这些烧钱做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993175534750031872&word=大模型\">大模型</a>的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991481461358174208&word=财报\">财报</a>好看的原因:营收创纪录、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991472437275369472&word=毛利率\">毛利率</a>接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3459023715752256\">@熊猫校长 Ming</a>: AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1992840817027112960&word=OpenAI\">OpenAI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993354704482361344&word=Anthropic\">Anthropic</a> 这些烧钱做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993175534750031872&word=大模型\">大模型</a>的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991481461358174208&word=财报\">财报</a>好看的原因:营收创纪录、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1991472437275369472&word=毛利率\">毛利率</a>接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。","text":"//@熊猫校长 Ming: AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 OpenAI、Anthropic 这些烧钱做大模型的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它财报好看的原因:营收创纪录、毛利率接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588352513720512","repostId":"586665037472120","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":586665037472120,"gmtCreate":1784260198248,"gmtModify":1784278164472,"author":{"id":"3459023715752256","authorId":"3459023715752256","name":"熊猫校长 Ming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d448af67332c14b1126ae724fc7a267c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3459023715752256","idStr":"3459023715752256"},"themes":[],"title":"台积电财报炸了,赚的钱却留不住?","htmlText":"今天很多人在分析台积电财报。 我关注的不是利润 —— 我更关心的是:AI 时代的钱,现在流到了哪里。 今天,整个资本市场都在等台积电这份财报。结果它交出的是:净利暴涨 77%、营收刷新历史纪录、全年指引还往上调 —— 一份近乎满分的答卷,盘前股价却反而大跌超 4%,跌到 402 美元附近。 很多人说市场疯了。但我的判断恰恰相反:市场,第一次开始认真算账了。 先说一个我越来越相信的判断 很多人一直在问:AI 烧掉这么多钱,到底赚不赚钱? 我研究到后来发现,这个问题问错了。 因为有一件事是确定的 —— 钱不会消失,它只会不断地迁移。 所以真正该问的,不是\"AI 赚没赚钱\",而是:这些钱兜兜转转,最后到底流进了谁的口袋? 今天台积电这份\"财报好、股价跌\"的怪事,恰恰是回答这个问题最好的入口。 淘金热里,谁真正赚到了钱 你可能听过一句话:淘金热的时候,真正稳赚的,不是那些辛苦淘金的人,而是在旁边卖铲子、卖水、卖牛仔裤的。 因为淘金的人赚不赚钱,看运气;但只要有人还在淘,铲子就一直卖得出去。 AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 OpenAI、Anthropic 这些烧钱做大模型的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它财报好看的原因:营收创纪录、毛利率接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。 但钱是一站一站往下流的 不过你要是以为台积电就是终点,那就看小了。 因为台积电赚到的钱,它自己也留不住多少 —— 它得转手花出去。 它要向上游买那台全世界只有一家能造的光刻机(来自荷兰的 ASML),要买各种昂贵的材料和设备。它赚的钱,很大一部分又","listText":"今天很多人在分析台积电财报。 我关注的不是利润 —— 我更关心的是:AI 时代的钱,现在流到了哪里。 今天,整个资本市场都在等台积电这份财报。结果它交出的是:净利暴涨 77%、营收刷新历史纪录、全年指引还往上调 —— 一份近乎满分的答卷,盘前股价却反而大跌超 4%,跌到 402 美元附近。 很多人说市场疯了。但我的判断恰恰相反:市场,第一次开始认真算账了。 先说一个我越来越相信的判断 很多人一直在问:AI 烧掉这么多钱,到底赚不赚钱? 我研究到后来发现,这个问题问错了。 因为有一件事是确定的 —— 钱不会消失,它只会不断地迁移。 所以真正该问的,不是\"AI 赚没赚钱\",而是:这些钱兜兜转转,最后到底流进了谁的口袋? 今天台积电这份\"财报好、股价跌\"的怪事,恰恰是回答这个问题最好的入口。 淘金热里,谁真正赚到了钱 你可能听过一句话:淘金热的时候,真正稳赚的,不是那些辛苦淘金的人,而是在旁边卖铲子、卖水、卖牛仔裤的。 因为淘金的人赚不赚钱,看运气;但只要有人还在淘,铲子就一直卖得出去。 AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 OpenAI、Anthropic 这些烧钱做大模型的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它财报好看的原因:营收创纪录、毛利率接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。 但钱是一站一站往下流的 不过你要是以为台积电就是终点,那就看小了。 因为台积电赚到的钱,它自己也留不住多少 —— 它得转手花出去。 它要向上游买那台全世界只有一家能造的光刻机(来自荷兰的 ASML),要买各种昂贵的材料和设备。它赚的钱,很大一部分又","text":"今天很多人在分析台积电财报。 我关注的不是利润 —— 我更关心的是:AI 时代的钱,现在流到了哪里。 今天,整个资本市场都在等台积电这份财报。结果它交出的是:净利暴涨 77%、营收刷新历史纪录、全年指引还往上调 —— 一份近乎满分的答卷,盘前股价却反而大跌超 4%,跌到 402 美元附近。 很多人说市场疯了。但我的判断恰恰相反:市场,第一次开始认真算账了。 先说一个我越来越相信的判断 很多人一直在问:AI 烧掉这么多钱,到底赚不赚钱? 我研究到后来发现,这个问题问错了。 因为有一件事是确定的 —— 钱不会消失,它只会不断地迁移。 所以真正该问的,不是\"AI 赚没赚钱\",而是:这些钱兜兜转转,最后到底流进了谁的口袋? 今天台积电这份\"财报好、股价跌\"的怪事,恰恰是回答这个问题最好的入口。 淘金热里,谁真正赚到了钱 你可能听过一句话:淘金热的时候,真正稳赚的,不是那些辛苦淘金的人,而是在旁边卖铲子、卖水、卖牛仔裤的。 因为淘金的人赚不赚钱,看运气;但只要有人还在淘,铲子就一直卖得出去。 AI 这波,就是一场规模大得多的\"淘金热\"。 淘金的人,是 OpenAI、Anthropic 这些烧钱做大模型的公司,还有下场自己搞 AI 的科技巨头。 而台积电,就是那个卖铲子的。全世界最先进的 AI 芯片,不管是英伟达的、还是各家自研的,最后都得拿到台积电的工厂里去造。只要 AI 还在烧钱,台积电的\"铲子\"就一直供不应求。 这就是它财报好看的原因:营收创纪录、毛利率接近 68%。AI 的钱烧出去,第一站,就流进了台积电这种\"卖铲子\"的公司口袋里。 但钱是一站一站往下流的 不过你要是以为台积电就是终点,那就看小了。 因为台积电赚到的钱,它自己也留不住多少 —— 它得转手花出去。 它要向上游买那台全世界只有一家能造的光刻机(来自荷兰的 ASML),要买各种昂贵的材料和设备。它赚的钱,很大一部分又","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe6e8725a451cd98dbe3b436440e850","width":"1080","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586665037472120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588346139431240,"gmtCreate":1784670623189,"gmtModify":1784670625161,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4160227637143462\">@Blackland</a>:有什么意义,ai烂大街了,偶尔用下和庞大资本开始比不算什么","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4160227637143462\">@Blackland</a>:有什么意义,ai烂大街了,偶尔用下和庞大资本开始比不算什么","text":"//@Blackland:有什么意义,ai烂大街了,偶尔用下和庞大资本开始比不算什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588346139431240","repostId":"1154332615","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154332615","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784165888,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154332615?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-16 09:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击|阿里大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154332615","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"阿里巴巴 的千问将作为AI能力集成至苹果公司的「Apple智能」,为 iOS、iPadOS、macOS和visionOS的中国用户带来智能体验。报道引述阿里回应称,用户无需在应用间切换,即可在苹果设备上直接体验千问的文本与图像理解、内容生成等能力。另有报道指出,苹果还正与百度 合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能,作为「苹果智能」功能套件的一部分。阿里巴巴股价高开2.5%,开报116.2元;百度升1.2%,报108.8元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴股价大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升 4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c5efed2281d7851c45a27561e21c4a9\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴 (09988) 的千问将作为AI能力集成至苹果公司(美:AAPL)的「Apple智能」,为 iOS、iPadOS、macOS和visionOS的中国用户带来智能体验。报道引述阿里回应称,用户无需在应用间切换,即可在苹果设备上直接体验千问的文本与图像理解、内容生成等能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另有报道指出,苹果还正与百度 (09888)合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能,作为「苹果智能」(Apple Intelligence)功能套件的一部分。该功能可处理图像和文字内容,并将升级成适用于中国市场的Siri语音助手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴股价高开2.5%,开报116.2元;百度升1.2%,报108.8元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股直击|阿里大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股直击|阿里大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-16 09:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴股价大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升 4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c5efed2281d7851c45a27561e21c4a9\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴 (09988) 的千问将作为AI能力集成至苹果公司(美:AAPL)的「Apple智能」,为 iOS、iPadOS、macOS和visionOS的中国用户带来智能体验。报道引述阿里回应称,用户无需在应用间切换,即可在苹果设备上直接体验千问的文本与图像理解、内容生成等能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另有报道指出,苹果还正与百度 (09888)合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能,作为「苹果智能」(Apple Intelligence)功能套件的一部分。该功能可处理图像和文字内容,并将升级成适用于中国市场的Siri语音助手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿里巴巴股价高开2.5%,开报116.2元;百度升1.2%,报108.8元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","09888":"百度集团-SW"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154332615","content_text":"阿里巴巴股价大升 5%,千问将作为AI能力集成至「Apple智能」;百度升 4%,苹果与其合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能。阿里巴巴 (09988) 的千问将作为AI能力集成至苹果公司(美:AAPL)的「Apple智能」,为 iOS、iPadOS、macOS和visionOS的中国用户带来智能体验。报道引述阿里回应称,用户无需在应用间切换,即可在苹果设备上直接体验千问的文本与图像理解、内容生成等能力。另有报道指出,苹果还正与百度 (09888)合作开发一种基于AI的搜寻功能,作为「苹果智能」(Apple Intelligence)功能套件的一部分。该功能可处理图像和文字内容,并将升级成适用于中国市场的Siri语音助手。阿里巴巴股价高开2.5%,开报116.2元;百度升1.2%,报108.8元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09888":2,"09988":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588345200013760,"gmtCreate":1784670394289,"gmtModify":1784670396373,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3498680662745699\">@Mediator</a>:护盘只是让指数缓步下跌,不至于情绪杀跌导致买盘直接消失,让指数跌停造成机构重大损失,而不是来改变市场趋势的,趋势不变。 市场趋势只和经济预期有关,目前就是AI主线的行业预期,一旦AI出现基本面松动,谁来兜底救市都没有用。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3498680662745699\">@Mediator</a>:护盘只是让指数缓步下跌,不至于情绪杀跌导致买盘直接消失,让指数跌停造成机构重大损失,而不是来改变市场趋势的,趋势不变。 市场趋势只和经济预期有关,目前就是AI主线的行业预期,一旦AI出现基本面松动,谁来兜底救市都没有用。","text":"//@Mediator:护盘只是让指数缓步下跌,不至于情绪杀跌导致买盘直接消失,让指数跌停造成机构重大损失,而不是来改变市场趋势的,趋势不变。 市场趋势只和经济预期有关,目前就是AI主线的行业预期,一旦AI出现基本面松动,谁来兜底救市都没有用。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588345200013760","repostId":"1103791706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103791706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784509033,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103791706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-20 08:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"两大央企合计出手逾600亿元稳市,中证监今日召开座谈会释放积极信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103791706","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"两大央企持续出手稳市。中国诚通公告称,近日中国诚通及旗下诚通资本、诚阳投资聚焦国资央企,大额增持中国股票资产,累计买入近100亿元人民币。同日,中国国新亦宣布,旗下国新投资相关主体已使用股票回购增持专项再贷款超过500亿元人民币,用于增持中央企业股票、维护市场稳定。市场普遍认为,在央企持续增持叠加监管层召开座谈会的背景下,释放了积极稳市的政策信号。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两大央企持续出手稳市。中国诚通公告称,近日中国诚通及旗下诚通资本、诚阳投资聚焦国资央企,大额增持中国股票资产,累计买入近100亿元人民币。公司表示,坚定看好中国经济及资本市场前景,后续将继续运用自有资金及股票回购增持再贷款,加大增持国资央企、科技企业股票及ETF力度,全力维护资本市场平稳运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同日,中国国新亦宣布,旗下国新投资相关主体已使用股票回购增持专项再贷款超过500亿元人民币,用于增持中央企业股票、维护市场稳定。未来将继续用好再贷款政策工具,并配合自有资金持续增持,坚决维护资本市场核心资产战略价值和市场平稳健康运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外,据<span>据央视财经</span>报道,中国证监会将于今日(20日)召开上市公司、证券公司及基金机构座谈会,听取各方关于促进资本市场平稳健康发展的意见建议。市场普遍认为,在央企持续增持叠加监管层召开座谈会的背景下,释放了积极稳市的政策信号。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>两大央企合计出手逾600亿元稳市,中证监今日召开座谈会释放积极信号</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-20 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两大央企持续出手稳市。中国诚通公告称,近日中国诚通及旗下诚通资本、诚阳投资聚焦国资央企,大额增持中国股票资产,累计买入近100亿元人民币。公司表示,坚定看好中国经济及资本市场前景,后续将继续运用自有资金及股票回购增持再贷款,加大增持国资央企、科技企业股票及ETF力度,全力维护资本市场平稳运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同日,中国国新亦宣布,旗下国新投资相关主体已使用股票回购增持专项再贷款超过500亿元人民币,用于增持中央企业股票、维护市场稳定。未来将继续用好再贷款政策工具,并配合自有资金持续增持,坚决维护资本市场核心资产战略价值和市场平稳健康运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外,据<span>据央视财经</span>报道,中国证监会将于今日(20日)召开上市公司、证券公司及基金机构座谈会,听取各方关于促进资本市场平稳健康发展的意见建议。市场普遍认为,在央企持续增持叠加监管层召开座谈会的背景下,释放了积极稳市的政策信号。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de1a21476308484a13f4e661ec7569d3","relate_stocks":{"82800":"盈富基金-R","82828":"恒生中国企业-R","83115":"安硕恒生指数—R","09088":"华夏恒生科技-U","03033":"南方恒生科技","09067":"安硕恒生科技-U","07552":"南方两倍做空恒科","03419":"A 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539226526191807\">@买高价值</a>:垃圾国家队,真恶心。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539226526191807\">@买高价值</a>:垃圾国家队,真恶心。","text":"//@买高价值:垃圾国家队,真恶心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588344714785608","repostId":"1193104164","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193104164","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784610699,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193104164?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-21 13:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股直击 | 智谱午后涨近30%,落地1GW国产算力中心并完成收购中科加禾","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193104164","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日,智谱午后涨近30%,报1155港元。消息面上,公司落地1GW国产算力中心,并同步完成对中科加禾的收购,推动市场对其算力资源和AI基础设施布局的关注升温。此次1GW国产算力中心落地,是智谱在大模型底层算力能力上的重要推进。随着国产大模型训练、推理和企业级应用需求持续增长,算力资源已成为AI公司竞争中的关键基础设施。1GW级别算力中心有助于提升公司在模型训练、推理部署及行业客户服务中的资源支撑能力。同时,智谱完成对中科加禾的收购,也进一步强化其在算力运营、AI基础设施及相关技术服务领域的布局。市场关注此次收购能否帮助公司扩大国产算力供给能力,并与现有大模型业务形成协同。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月21日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>午后涨近30%,报1155港元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上,公司落地1GW国产算力中心,并同步完成对中科加禾的收购,推动市场对其算力资源和AI基础设施布局的关注升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次1GW国产算力中心落地,是智谱在大模型底层算力能力上的重要推进。随着国产大模型训练、推理和企业级应用需求持续增长,算力资源已成为AI公司竞争中的关键基础设施。1GW级别算力中心有助于提升公司在模型训练、推理部署及行业客户服务中的资源支撑能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时,智谱完成对中科加禾的收购,也进一步强化其在算力运营、AI基础设施及相关技术服务领域的布局。市场关注此次收购能否帮助公司扩大国产算力供给能力,并与现有大模型业务形成协同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68edb0411d5e6251296f531785e400ae\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1868\" tg-height=\"968\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股直击 | 智谱午后涨近30%,落地1GW国产算力中心并完成收购中科加禾</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股直击 | 智谱午后涨近30%,落地1GW国产算力中心并完成收购中科加禾\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-21 13:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月21日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>午后涨近30%,报1155港元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上,公司落地1GW国产算力中心,并同步完成对中科加禾的收购,推动市场对其算力资源和AI基础设施布局的关注升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次1GW国产算力中心落地,是智谱在大模型底层算力能力上的重要推进。随着国产大模型训练、推理和企业级应用需求持续增长,算力资源已成为AI公司竞争中的关键基础设施。1GW级别算力中心有助于提升公司在模型训练、推理部署及行业客户服务中的资源支撑能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时,智谱完成对中科加禾的收购,也进一步强化其在算力运营、AI基础设施及相关技术服务领域的布局。市场关注此次收购能否帮助公司扩大国产算力供给能力,并与现有大模型业务形成协同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68edb0411d5e6251296f531785e400ae\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1868\" tg-height=\"968\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9d6040a0845516a8f8d6acac45fdcaf","relate_stocks":{"02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193104164","content_text":"7月21日,智谱午后涨近30%,报1155港元。消息面上,公司落地1GW国产算力中心,并同步完成对中科加禾的收购,推动市场对其算力资源和AI基础设施布局的关注升温。此次1GW国产算力中心落地,是智谱在大模型底层算力能力上的重要推进。随着国产大模型训练、推理和企业级应用需求持续增长,算力资源已成为AI公司竞争中的关键基础设施。1GW级别算力中心有助于提升公司在模型训练、推理部署及行业客户服务中的资源支撑能力。同时,智谱完成对中科加禾的收购,也进一步强化其在算力运营、AI基础设施及相关技术服务领域的布局。市场关注此次收购能否帮助公司扩大国产算力供给能力,并与现有大模型业务形成协同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588344074388728,"gmtCreate":1784670192125,"gmtModify":1784670194202,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588344074388728","repostId":"1163088521","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163088521","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784627539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163088521?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-21 17:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通戴蒙称市场低估风险,当前价格下他不会买入股票或美国国债","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163088521","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"戴蒙表示,以目前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,投资者低估了全球经济面临的风险,而以当前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。当被问及市场是否低估了发生重大冲击的可能性时,戴蒙表示,很难准确判断资产价格已经计入了多少风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">要点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,投资者低估了地缘政治和财政风险,而这些风险最终可能冲击金融市场。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙表示,以目前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙指出:“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”他提到了乌克兰和中东战争等,以及在美国政府财政赤字不断扩大的背景下不断增加的军费开支。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,投资者低估了全球经济面临的风险,而以当前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在周一发布的一段长达一小时、由威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特(Wilfred Frost)主持的采访中,戴蒙表示,市场尚未充分反映日益增多的地缘政治和财政风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”戴蒙说道。他列举了乌克兰和中东地区的战争,以及在美国政府财政赤字持续扩大的情况下不断攀升的军费开支。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当被问及市场是否低估了发生重大冲击的可能性时,戴蒙表示,很难准确判断资产价格已经计入了多少风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“有些因素可能已经反映在价格中,但真正没有反映进去的是,事情最终究竟会如何发展。”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为全球市值最大的银行——摩根大通——的掌门人,戴蒙一直以来都经常公开警告他所看到的经济风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他的最新表态与近期投资者的乐观情绪形成鲜明对比。近来,市场普遍忽视战争、关税以及其他冲击因素的影响。今年以来,<strong>标普500指数</strong>累计上涨近10%,原因在于消费者支出依然强劲、通胀有所缓和,以及投资者持续追捧人工智能(AI)投资主题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周,<strong>摩根大通</strong>及其同行公布了表现亮眼的季度业绩,受交易业务和投资银行业务收入大幅增长推动,进一步强化了市场观点,即美国经济比许多人预期的更好地经受住了近期地缘政治动荡的考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在接受《The Master Investor Podcast》采访时,戴蒙承认,由于全球经济对能源的依赖程度较几十年前有所下降,因此经济体系的韧性确实有所增强,但他警告,这并不意味着不会出现突如其来的转折点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“或许需要更多压在骆驼背上的稻草,才会引发那个临界点。”他说,“即使当前这场战争再次升级,也许还不足以触发那个转折。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙表示,美国持续存在的财政预算赤字最终将不得不面对现实,其结果可能是推动利率进一步上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我的看法是,这最终会成为一个问题。”他说,并预测,随着所谓的“债券义警(bond vigilantes)”要求更高的收益率来补偿其为政府债务融资所承担的风险,利率将进一步走高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">股票与AI周期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当被问及是否会购买美国长期国债时,戴蒙回答:“就我个人而言,不会。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示,即使通胀回落至美联储2%的目标水平,“10年期美国国债收益率也应该在4%至4.5%之间”,并补充称,他认为美国国债价格几乎没有进一步上涨的空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于股票市场,他同样保持谨慎态度。戴蒙表示,如果某只个股是“一项非常优秀的投资”,他仍会考虑买入;但就整个股票市场而言,以当前估值水平,他不会选择入场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谈及人工智能,戴蒙也保持了较为克制的态度,并将当前AI领域的大规模投资热潮比作互联网发展的早期阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“如今投入的资金规模非常庞大。整体来看,它最终可能会获得回报,就像互联网一样。”戴蒙表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还指出,在互联网繁荣时期,<strong>雅虎(Yahoo)和网景(Netscape)等早期行业巨头后来逐渐淡出,而真正的赢家,如谷歌(Google)和Facebook</strong>,则是在之后才脱颖而出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“它最终会带来回报吗?会的。但它是否会按照你所预期的方式和时间表实现?绝对不会。”戴蒙说道。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通戴蒙称市场低估风险,当前价格下他不会买入股票或美国国债</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通戴蒙称市场低估风险,当前价格下他不会买入股票或美国国债\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-21 17:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">要点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,投资者低估了地缘政治和财政风险,而这些风险最终可能冲击金融市场。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙表示,以目前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙指出:“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”他提到了乌克兰和中东战争等,以及在美国政府财政赤字不断扩大的背景下不断增加的军费开支。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,投资者低估了全球经济面临的风险,而以当前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在周一发布的一段长达一小时、由威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特(Wilfred Frost)主持的采访中,戴蒙表示,市场尚未充分反映日益增多的地缘政治和财政风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”戴蒙说道。他列举了乌克兰和中东地区的战争,以及在美国政府财政赤字持续扩大的情况下不断攀升的军费开支。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当被问及市场是否低估了发生重大冲击的可能性时,戴蒙表示,很难准确判断资产价格已经计入了多少风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“有些因素可能已经反映在价格中,但真正没有反映进去的是,事情最终究竟会如何发展。”他说。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为全球市值最大的银行——摩根大通——的掌门人,戴蒙一直以来都经常公开警告他所看到的经济风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他的最新表态与近期投资者的乐观情绪形成鲜明对比。近来,市场普遍忽视战争、关税以及其他冲击因素的影响。今年以来,<strong>标普500指数</strong>累计上涨近10%,原因在于消费者支出依然强劲、通胀有所缓和,以及投资者持续追捧人工智能(AI)投资主题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周,<strong>摩根大通</strong>及其同行公布了表现亮眼的季度业绩,受交易业务和投资银行业务收入大幅增长推动,进一步强化了市场观点,即美国经济比许多人预期的更好地经受住了近期地缘政治动荡的考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在接受《The Master Investor Podcast》采访时,戴蒙承认,由于全球经济对能源的依赖程度较几十年前有所下降,因此经济体系的韧性确实有所增强,但他警告,这并不意味着不会出现突如其来的转折点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“或许需要更多压在骆驼背上的稻草,才会引发那个临界点。”他说,“即使当前这场战争再次升级,也许还不足以触发那个转折。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">戴蒙表示,美国持续存在的财政预算赤字最终将不得不面对现实,其结果可能是推动利率进一步上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我的看法是,这最终会成为一个问题。”他说,并预测,随着所谓的“债券义警(bond vigilantes)”要求更高的收益率来补偿其为政府债务融资所承担的风险,利率将进一步走高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">股票与AI周期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当被问及是否会购买美国长期国债时,戴蒙回答:“就我个人而言,不会。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示,即使通胀回落至美联储2%的目标水平,“10年期美国国债收益率也应该在4%至4.5%之间”,并补充称,他认为美国国债价格几乎没有进一步上涨的空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于股票市场,他同样保持谨慎态度。戴蒙表示,如果某只个股是“一项非常优秀的投资”,他仍会考虑买入;但就整个股票市场而言,以当前估值水平,他不会选择入场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谈及人工智能,戴蒙也保持了较为克制的态度,并将当前AI领域的大规模投资热潮比作互联网发展的早期阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“如今投入的资金规模非常庞大。整体来看,它最终可能会获得回报,就像互联网一样。”戴蒙表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还指出,在互联网繁荣时期,<strong>雅虎(Yahoo)和网景(Netscape)等早期行业巨头后来逐渐淡出,而真正的赢家,如谷歌(Google)和Facebook</strong>,则是在之后才脱颖而出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“它最终会带来回报吗?会的。但它是否会按照你所预期的方式和时间表实现?绝对不会。”戴蒙说道。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c8ec18159fb857ca9381854cbe98a87","relate_stocks":{"JPX":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","JPMO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163088521","content_text":"要点摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,投资者低估了地缘政治和财政风险,而这些风险最终可能冲击金融市场。戴蒙表示,以目前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。戴蒙指出:“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”他提到了乌克兰和中东战争等,以及在美国政府财政赤字不断扩大的背景下不断增加的军费开支。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,投资者低估了全球经济面临的风险,而以当前的价格来看,他既不会买入股票,也不会买入美国长期国债。在周一发布的一段长达一小时、由威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特(Wilfred Frost)主持的采访中,戴蒙表示,市场尚未充分反映日益增多的地缘政治和财政风险。“我确实认为,这些风险可能比其他人想象的更大。”戴蒙说道。他列举了乌克兰和中东地区的战争,以及在美国政府财政赤字持续扩大的情况下不断攀升的军费开支。当被问及市场是否低估了发生重大冲击的可能性时,戴蒙表示,很难准确判断资产价格已经计入了多少风险。“有些因素可能已经反映在价格中,但真正没有反映进去的是,事情最终究竟会如何发展。”他说。作为全球市值最大的银行——摩根大通——的掌门人,戴蒙一直以来都经常公开警告他所看到的经济风险。他的最新表态与近期投资者的乐观情绪形成鲜明对比。近来,市场普遍忽视战争、关税以及其他冲击因素的影响。今年以来,标普500指数累计上涨近10%,原因在于消费者支出依然强劲、通胀有所缓和,以及投资者持续追捧人工智能(AI)投资主题。上周,摩根大通及其同行公布了表现亮眼的季度业绩,受交易业务和投资银行业务收入大幅增长推动,进一步强化了市场观点,即美国经济比许多人预期的更好地经受住了近期地缘政治动荡的考验。在接受《The Master Investor Podcast》采访时,戴蒙承认,由于全球经济对能源的依赖程度较几十年前有所下降,因此经济体系的韧性确实有所增强,但他警告,这并不意味着不会出现突如其来的转折点。“或许需要更多压在骆驼背上的稻草,才会引发那个临界点。”他说,“即使当前这场战争再次升级,也许还不足以触发那个转折。”戴蒙表示,美国持续存在的财政预算赤字最终将不得不面对现实,其结果可能是推动利率进一步上升。“我的看法是,这最终会成为一个问题。”他说,并预测,随着所谓的“债券义警(bond vigilantes)”要求更高的收益率来补偿其为政府债务融资所承担的风险,利率将进一步走高。股票与AI周期当被问及是否会购买美国长期国债时,戴蒙回答:“就我个人而言,不会。”他表示,即使通胀回落至美联储2%的目标水平,“10年期美国国债收益率也应该在4%至4.5%之间”,并补充称,他认为美国国债价格几乎没有进一步上涨的空间。对于股票市场,他同样保持谨慎态度。戴蒙表示,如果某只个股是“一项非常优秀的投资”,他仍会考虑买入;但就整个股票市场而言,以当前估值水平,他不会选择入场。谈及人工智能,戴蒙也保持了较为克制的态度,并将当前AI领域的大规模投资热潮比作互联网发展的早期阶段。“如今投入的资金规模非常庞大。整体来看,它最终可能会获得回报,就像互联网一样。”戴蒙表示。他还指出,在互联网繁荣时期,雅虎(Yahoo)和网景(Netscape)等早期行业巨头后来逐渐淡出,而真正的赢家,如谷歌(Google)和Facebook,则是在之后才脱颖而出。“它最终会带来回报吗?会的。但它是否会按照你所预期的方式和时间表实现?绝对不会。”戴蒙说道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPX":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"JPM":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584347795723832,"gmtCreate":1783694547967,"gmtModify":1783694549488,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584347795723832","repostId":"584291692933984","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":584291692933984,"gmtCreate":1783680771968,"gmtModify":1783682516545,"author":{"id":"3548236649718288","authorId":"3548236649718288","name":"交易员说","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f49d560e88e510a0dece0a83fe1f08","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548236649718288","idStr":"3548236649718288"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么越来越多全球交易者开始选择 ATFX?答案可能不是点差","htmlText":"十年前,如果你问一位交易者:\"你为什么选择这家交易平台?\"得到的答案大概率是点差够不够低、杠杆最大多少倍以及返佣够不够多。 在那个行业高速发展的年代,平台之间竞争的核心几乎都围绕着\"价格\"展开。谁能够提供更低的点差、更高的杠杆、更丰厚的赠金奖励,谁就更容易获得客户。 但放眼今天,当你再去问一位拥有十年以上交易经验的职业交易员,答案已经发生了明显变化。 他们开始关心的是口碑好不好、监管严不严、极端行情下订单是否能够稳定成交、服务器是否足够稳定、资金安全是否有保障以及有没有持续投入金融科技…… 这些问题,看似与交易本身无关,却正在成为越来越多专业交易者选择平台时最重要的考量因素。 监管实力也正在成为衡量一家全球金融科技平台综合竞争力的重要标准。而 ATFX 近期获得哥伦比亚金融监督局授权,拿下全球第 10 张监管牌照,正是这一趋势的缩影。 原因其实很简单。当一个人真正经历过牛市、熊市、黑天鹅行情,以及无数次市场剧烈波动之后,他最终会明白,真正决定长期交易体验的,并不是那零点几个点的点差,而是一家平台背后的综合实力。 过去二十年,全球金融行业发生了一场几乎所有普通投资者都没有察觉到的变化。交易平台已经不再只是单纯的\"交易平台\",它们正在演变成一家又一家全球金融科技公司。 交易平台,为什么越来越像 FinTech 公司? 如果把时间拨回二十年前,在线经纪商的商业模式其实非常简单——提供交易软件、接入流动性、完成客户下单,整个行业更像一个交易通道。 而今天,当我们观察诸如 ATFX 等全球领先的平台时,会发现它们做的事情早已远远超出了交易本身。 人工智能、云计算、大数据、量化分析、市场研究、投资教育、全球品牌建设以及体育营销……这些过去几乎不会出现在一家经纪商身上的标签,如今却成为行业发展的关键词。 为什么?因为市场和行业都发生了变化。 过去的平台负责让客户下单。今天的平台,更需要帮","listText":"十年前,如果你问一位交易者:\"你为什么选择这家交易平台?\"得到的答案大概率是点差够不够低、杠杆最大多少倍以及返佣够不够多。 在那个行业高速发展的年代,平台之间竞争的核心几乎都围绕着\"价格\"展开。谁能够提供更低的点差、更高的杠杆、更丰厚的赠金奖励,谁就更容易获得客户。 但放眼今天,当你再去问一位拥有十年以上交易经验的职业交易员,答案已经发生了明显变化。 他们开始关心的是口碑好不好、监管严不严、极端行情下订单是否能够稳定成交、服务器是否足够稳定、资金安全是否有保障以及有没有持续投入金融科技…… 这些问题,看似与交易本身无关,却正在成为越来越多专业交易者选择平台时最重要的考量因素。 监管实力也正在成为衡量一家全球金融科技平台综合竞争力的重要标准。而 ATFX 近期获得哥伦比亚金融监督局授权,拿下全球第 10 张监管牌照,正是这一趋势的缩影。 原因其实很简单。当一个人真正经历过牛市、熊市、黑天鹅行情,以及无数次市场剧烈波动之后,他最终会明白,真正决定长期交易体验的,并不是那零点几个点的点差,而是一家平台背后的综合实力。 过去二十年,全球金融行业发生了一场几乎所有普通投资者都没有察觉到的变化。交易平台已经不再只是单纯的\"交易平台\",它们正在演变成一家又一家全球金融科技公司。 交易平台,为什么越来越像 FinTech 公司? 如果把时间拨回二十年前,在线经纪商的商业模式其实非常简单——提供交易软件、接入流动性、完成客户下单,整个行业更像一个交易通道。 而今天,当我们观察诸如 ATFX 等全球领先的平台时,会发现它们做的事情早已远远超出了交易本身。 人工智能、云计算、大数据、量化分析、市场研究、投资教育、全球品牌建设以及体育营销……这些过去几乎不会出现在一家经纪商身上的标签,如今却成为行业发展的关键词。 为什么?因为市场和行业都发生了变化。 过去的平台负责让客户下单。今天的平台,更需要帮","text":"十年前,如果你问一位交易者:\"你为什么选择这家交易平台?\"得到的答案大概率是点差够不够低、杠杆最大多少倍以及返佣够不够多。 在那个行业高速发展的年代,平台之间竞争的核心几乎都围绕着\"价格\"展开。谁能够提供更低的点差、更高的杠杆、更丰厚的赠金奖励,谁就更容易获得客户。 但放眼今天,当你再去问一位拥有十年以上交易经验的职业交易员,答案已经发生了明显变化。 他们开始关心的是口碑好不好、监管严不严、极端行情下订单是否能够稳定成交、服务器是否足够稳定、资金安全是否有保障以及有没有持续投入金融科技…… 这些问题,看似与交易本身无关,却正在成为越来越多专业交易者选择平台时最重要的考量因素。 监管实力也正在成为衡量一家全球金融科技平台综合竞争力的重要标准。而 ATFX 近期获得哥伦比亚金融监督局授权,拿下全球第 10 张监管牌照,正是这一趋势的缩影。 原因其实很简单。当一个人真正经历过牛市、熊市、黑天鹅行情,以及无数次市场剧烈波动之后,他最终会明白,真正决定长期交易体验的,并不是那零点几个点的点差,而是一家平台背后的综合实力。 过去二十年,全球金融行业发生了一场几乎所有普通投资者都没有察觉到的变化。交易平台已经不再只是单纯的\"交易平台\",它们正在演变成一家又一家全球金融科技公司。 交易平台,为什么越来越像 FinTech 公司? 如果把时间拨回二十年前,在线经纪商的商业模式其实非常简单——提供交易软件、接入流动性、完成客户下单,整个行业更像一个交易通道。 而今天,当我们观察诸如 ATFX 等全球领先的平台时,会发现它们做的事情早已远远超出了交易本身。 人工智能、云计算、大数据、量化分析、市场研究、投资教育、全球品牌建设以及体育营销……这些过去几乎不会出现在一家经纪商身上的标签,如今却成为行业发展的关键词。 为什么?因为市场和行业都发生了变化。 过去的平台负责让客户下单。今天的平台,更需要帮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584291692933984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584346760044744,"gmtCreate":1783694208939,"gmtModify":1783694210439,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584346760044744","repostId":"584280853377544","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":584280853377544,"gmtCreate":1783678208622,"gmtModify":1783678276873,"author":{"id":"4163829933235460","authorId":"4163829933235460","name":"跨境派","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7027db7c986dc156cd492ae5ece35b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4163829933235460","idStr":"4163829933235460"},"themes":[],"title":"从深圳到沪甬,亚马逊GWD让“下一代跨境链”加速落地","htmlText":"今年上半年,亚马逊全球首个智能枢纽仓(Global Warehousing and Distribution, GWD)在深圳正式向卖家全面开放。不到三个月,7月7日,GWD新仓发布会在上海举行——从深圳到上海、宁波,从华南到长三角。 亚马逊正在用行动兑现“发布一次商品信息、一次货源地入仓、从第一天起即可实现全球销售”的承诺。 PART 01 跨境卖家的“三座大山”,是时候被推倒了 先看一组宏观数据。据中国海关统计,2025年,我国跨境电商进出口规模2.84万亿元,比上年增长4.8%1 。与此同时,我国企业建设的海外仓已超过2500个,总面积突破3000万平方米 2,规模在膨胀,但卖家的日子并没有变得更容易。 成本居高不下:物流仓储成本占跨境电商整体经营成本的15%到20%,仅次于产品成本3 风险如影随形:仅洛杉矶一地,曾有一周内5家海外仓集中暴雷,牵涉超2000个中国卖家,货值保守估计达2亿元4 运营碎片化:卖家需同时对接国内提货、跨境海运、目的国海外仓等多方服务商,数据散落不同系统,人工核对追踪耗费大量人力 PART 02 深圳GWD开仓三个月,卖家的真实反馈是什么? 今年4月深圳GWD开仓时,亚马逊中国副总裁陈鸣曾给出三个关键信息:仓储成本最多降低45%、跨境运输时效最多缩短7天、支持小批量多频次补货无最低发货量限制。 首批试用卖家的反馈验证了这些承诺 深圳闪电科技创始人陈浚彬表示,借助GWD实现“一次报关、分批出库”,每周节省超1小时报关人力,整体发货周期从2-4周缩短至3天至2周。倍思奇创新科技物流负责人郭洪涛则认为,GWD为长尾产品提供了高性价比的存储方案,未来有望助力新品在全球多站点低成本快速测试。 这些不是个例 GWD的“一个库存池,触达全球”模式正在改变过去“一票货锁定一个站点”的局面。卖家只需要把货发到货源地仓库,后续的仓储、报关清关、跨境运输、库存调拨","listText":"今年上半年,亚马逊全球首个智能枢纽仓(Global Warehousing and Distribution, GWD)在深圳正式向卖家全面开放。不到三个月,7月7日,GWD新仓发布会在上海举行——从深圳到上海、宁波,从华南到长三角。 亚马逊正在用行动兑现“发布一次商品信息、一次货源地入仓、从第一天起即可实现全球销售”的承诺。 PART 01 跨境卖家的“三座大山”,是时候被推倒了 先看一组宏观数据。据中国海关统计,2025年,我国跨境电商进出口规模2.84万亿元,比上年增长4.8%1 。与此同时,我国企业建设的海外仓已超过2500个,总面积突破3000万平方米 2,规模在膨胀,但卖家的日子并没有变得更容易。 成本居高不下:物流仓储成本占跨境电商整体经营成本的15%到20%,仅次于产品成本3 风险如影随形:仅洛杉矶一地,曾有一周内5家海外仓集中暴雷,牵涉超2000个中国卖家,货值保守估计达2亿元4 运营碎片化:卖家需同时对接国内提货、跨境海运、目的国海外仓等多方服务商,数据散落不同系统,人工核对追踪耗费大量人力 PART 02 深圳GWD开仓三个月,卖家的真实反馈是什么? 今年4月深圳GWD开仓时,亚马逊中国副总裁陈鸣曾给出三个关键信息:仓储成本最多降低45%、跨境运输时效最多缩短7天、支持小批量多频次补货无最低发货量限制。 首批试用卖家的反馈验证了这些承诺 深圳闪电科技创始人陈浚彬表示,借助GWD实现“一次报关、分批出库”,每周节省超1小时报关人力,整体发货周期从2-4周缩短至3天至2周。倍思奇创新科技物流负责人郭洪涛则认为,GWD为长尾产品提供了高性价比的存储方案,未来有望助力新品在全球多站点低成本快速测试。 这些不是个例 GWD的“一个库存池,触达全球”模式正在改变过去“一票货锁定一个站点”的局面。卖家只需要把货发到货源地仓库,后续的仓储、报关清关、跨境运输、库存调拨","text":"今年上半年,亚马逊全球首个智能枢纽仓(Global Warehousing and Distribution, GWD)在深圳正式向卖家全面开放。不到三个月,7月7日,GWD新仓发布会在上海举行——从深圳到上海、宁波,从华南到长三角。 亚马逊正在用行动兑现“发布一次商品信息、一次货源地入仓、从第一天起即可实现全球销售”的承诺。 PART 01 跨境卖家的“三座大山”,是时候被推倒了 先看一组宏观数据。据中国海关统计,2025年,我国跨境电商进出口规模2.84万亿元,比上年增长4.8%1 。与此同时,我国企业建设的海外仓已超过2500个,总面积突破3000万平方米 2,规模在膨胀,但卖家的日子并没有变得更容易。 成本居高不下:物流仓储成本占跨境电商整体经营成本的15%到20%,仅次于产品成本3 风险如影随形:仅洛杉矶一地,曾有一周内5家海外仓集中暴雷,牵涉超2000个中国卖家,货值保守估计达2亿元4 运营碎片化:卖家需同时对接国内提货、跨境海运、目的国海外仓等多方服务商,数据散落不同系统,人工核对追踪耗费大量人力 PART 02 深圳GWD开仓三个月,卖家的真实反馈是什么? 今年4月深圳GWD开仓时,亚马逊中国副总裁陈鸣曾给出三个关键信息:仓储成本最多降低45%、跨境运输时效最多缩短7天、支持小批量多频次补货无最低发货量限制。 首批试用卖家的反馈验证了这些承诺 深圳闪电科技创始人陈浚彬表示,借助GWD实现“一次报关、分批出库”,每周节省超1小时报关人力,整体发货周期从2-4周缩短至3天至2周。倍思奇创新科技物流负责人郭洪涛则认为,GWD为长尾产品提供了高性价比的存储方案,未来有望助力新品在全球多站点低成本快速测试。 这些不是个例 GWD的“一个库存池,触达全球”模式正在改变过去“一票货锁定一个站点”的局面。卖家只需要把货发到货源地仓库,后续的仓储、报关清关、跨境运输、库存调拨","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374d6cf8c20dde0372181056cd2aea8d","width":"640","height":"364"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584280853377544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584344982668744,"gmtCreate":1783693858800,"gmtModify":1783693860577,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584344982668744","repostId":"584328457790272","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":584328457790272,"gmtCreate":1783688497606,"gmtModify":1783689053953,"author":{"id":"4185525996531482","authorId":"4185525996531482","name":"一追再追","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8afd30911053e792d09d1f067fb7588","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185525996531482","idStr":"4185525996531482"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"上半年市场只关注“买算力、建数据中心”的资本开支扩张,下半年核心矛盾转为算力能否实现盈利变现,AI云是全年最重要观测变量。上半年市场一致看多算力扩张,却忽视巨头烧钱隐忧,Meta传出租闲算力切入云服务,直接引发华尔街多空分歧:大摩看好AI云作为算力回本渠道,美银则持续警示数据中心、GPU、电力等持续巨额开支压力。这一分歧将贯穿下半年行情,直接决定AI板块估值中枢。重点跟踪三大信号:各大科技巨头云业务营收增速、AI算力租赁毛利率、企业客户长期算力采购合约规模。若Meta、阿里等云厂商AI相关收入持续放量,市场会重新定价整个AI产业链;反之若资本开支增速远高于营收增长,高位算力硬件将迎来持续估值下修。AI已走完单纯基建炒作阶段,下半年投资标准从“谁有GPU”变为“谁能靠AI赚钱”,云服务、企业定制大模型、行业解决方案企业估值弹性远大於单纯芯片厂商。","listText":"上半年市场只关注“买算力、建数据中心”的资本开支扩张,下半年核心矛盾转为算力能否实现盈利变现,AI云是全年最重要观测变量。上半年市场一致看多算力扩张,却忽视巨头烧钱隐忧,Meta传出租闲算力切入云服务,直接引发华尔街多空分歧:大摩看好AI云作为算力回本渠道,美银则持续警示数据中心、GPU、电力等持续巨额开支压力。这一分歧将贯穿下半年行情,直接决定AI板块估值中枢。重点跟踪三大信号:各大科技巨头云业务营收增速、AI算力租赁毛利率、企业客户长期算力采购合约规模。若Meta、阿里等云厂商AI相关收入持续放量,市场会重新定价整个AI产业链;反之若资本开支增速远高于营收增长,高位算力硬件将迎来持续估值下修。AI已走完单纯基建炒作阶段,下半年投资标准从“谁有GPU”变为“谁能靠AI赚钱”,云服务、企业定制大模型、行业解决方案企业估值弹性远大於单纯芯片厂商。","text":"上半年市场只关注“买算力、建数据中心”的资本开支扩张,下半年核心矛盾转为算力能否实现盈利变现,AI云是全年最重要观测变量。上半年市场一致看多算力扩张,却忽视巨头烧钱隐忧,Meta传出租闲算力切入云服务,直接引发华尔街多空分歧:大摩看好AI云作为算力回本渠道,美银则持续警示数据中心、GPU、电力等持续巨额开支压力。这一分歧将贯穿下半年行情,直接决定AI板块估值中枢。重点跟踪三大信号:各大科技巨头云业务营收增速、AI算力租赁毛利率、企业客户长期算力采购合约规模。若Meta、阿里等云厂商AI相关收入持续放量,市场会重新定价整个AI产业链;反之若资本开支增速远高于营收增长,高位算力硬件将迎来持续估值下修。AI已走完单纯基建炒作阶段,下半年投资标准从“谁有GPU”变为“谁能靠AI赚钱”,云服务、企业定制大模型、行业解决方案企业估值弹性远大於单纯芯片厂商。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584328457790272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584349853102304,"gmtCreate":1783693638080,"gmtModify":1783693640074,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584349853102304","repostId":"582963075416440","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":582963075416440,"gmtCreate":1783356398918,"gmtModify":1783357343069,"author":{"id":"4245811720203430","authorId":"4245811720203430","name":"挖掘大黑马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4161762d5c6d9a23285e54f523c563","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4245811720203430","idStr":"4245811720203430"},"themes":[],"title":"【港股打新】晶合集成 滨化股份 永康控股:永康才是王者!","htmlText":"七月份扎堆的,还剩下最后三家公司:晶合集成、滨化股份、永康控股。 快速过一下,不废话。 先说大背景。 最近AH新股扎堆上,折价率从15%到57%不等,差异很大。你如果每个都打,资金不够用;如果全放弃,又怕错过机会。 所以筛票很重要,我的原则是:折价够深才打,有厨子才满仓,其他一律pass。 1、先说晶合集成。 晶合集成,搞晶圆代工的,A股已经上市了,这次来港股是二次上市。H股发行价相对A股折价率在54.5%到57.7%之间,这个折价幅度在AH新股里算还行 你如果对比过之前上市的AH新股,会发现大部分折价率在30%到40%左右,晶合这个54.5%起步的折价,确实有那么一点吸引力。 同行对比一下,中芯国际H股相对A股折价大概在52%左右,华虹半导体折价在54.4%左右。 晶合集成54.5%以上的折价率,比中芯、华虹都深,有点小套利空间。 但话说回来,晶合集成在晶圆代工里排不上第一梯队,中芯国际、华虹半导体都在它前面,技术节点和产能规模有差距。所以折价深是有原因的,不是市场白送钱。 我的判断:折价率还行,有小套利空间,但不是那种\"闭眼梭哈\"的机会。 现金打打,小仓位参与,不用太激动。 如果你资金充裕,打一打没问题;如果资金紧张,跳过也不可惜。 AH折价率对比 评级:★★★☆ 三星半,现金打。 2、再说滨化股份。 滨化股份,搞化工的,烧碱、环氧丙烷这些。 A股那边最近出了点状况,连续两个跌停,股价直接砸下来。H股发行价相对A股折价率大概50%。 你可能会想,50%折价率也不低啊,为什么放弃? 主要原因是:化工股本身就不是港股打新的热门赛道,市场关注度低,暗盘很难有大的波动。 说白了,滨化股份这种票属于\"小涨小跌型\",涨也涨不了几个点,跌也跌不了多少,食之无味,弃之也不可惜。 性价比一般,我不想浪费时间。 评级:★★★ 三星,放弃申购。 3、最后说永康控股。 图片 永康控股,昨天文章","listText":"七月份扎堆的,还剩下最后三家公司:晶合集成、滨化股份、永康控股。 快速过一下,不废话。 先说大背景。 最近AH新股扎堆上,折价率从15%到57%不等,差异很大。你如果每个都打,资金不够用;如果全放弃,又怕错过机会。 所以筛票很重要,我的原则是:折价够深才打,有厨子才满仓,其他一律pass。 1、先说晶合集成。 晶合集成,搞晶圆代工的,A股已经上市了,这次来港股是二次上市。H股发行价相对A股折价率在54.5%到57.7%之间,这个折价幅度在AH新股里算还行 你如果对比过之前上市的AH新股,会发现大部分折价率在30%到40%左右,晶合这个54.5%起步的折价,确实有那么一点吸引力。 同行对比一下,中芯国际H股相对A股折价大概在52%左右,华虹半导体折价在54.4%左右。 晶合集成54.5%以上的折价率,比中芯、华虹都深,有点小套利空间。 但话说回来,晶合集成在晶圆代工里排不上第一梯队,中芯国际、华虹半导体都在它前面,技术节点和产能规模有差距。所以折价深是有原因的,不是市场白送钱。 我的判断:折价率还行,有小套利空间,但不是那种\"闭眼梭哈\"的机会。 现金打打,小仓位参与,不用太激动。 如果你资金充裕,打一打没问题;如果资金紧张,跳过也不可惜。 AH折价率对比 评级:★★★☆ 三星半,现金打。 2、再说滨化股份。 滨化股份,搞化工的,烧碱、环氧丙烷这些。 A股那边最近出了点状况,连续两个跌停,股价直接砸下来。H股发行价相对A股折价率大概50%。 你可能会想,50%折价率也不低啊,为什么放弃? 主要原因是:化工股本身就不是港股打新的热门赛道,市场关注度低,暗盘很难有大的波动。 说白了,滨化股份这种票属于\"小涨小跌型\",涨也涨不了几个点,跌也跌不了多少,食之无味,弃之也不可惜。 性价比一般,我不想浪费时间。 评级:★★★ 三星,放弃申购。 3、最后说永康控股。 图片 永康控股,昨天文章","text":"七月份扎堆的,还剩下最后三家公司:晶合集成、滨化股份、永康控股。 快速过一下,不废话。 先说大背景。 最近AH新股扎堆上,折价率从15%到57%不等,差异很大。你如果每个都打,资金不够用;如果全放弃,又怕错过机会。 所以筛票很重要,我的原则是:折价够深才打,有厨子才满仓,其他一律pass。 1、先说晶合集成。 晶合集成,搞晶圆代工的,A股已经上市了,这次来港股是二次上市。H股发行价相对A股折价率在54.5%到57.7%之间,这个折价幅度在AH新股里算还行 你如果对比过之前上市的AH新股,会发现大部分折价率在30%到40%左右,晶合这个54.5%起步的折价,确实有那么一点吸引力。 同行对比一下,中芯国际H股相对A股折价大概在52%左右,华虹半导体折价在54.4%左右。 晶合集成54.5%以上的折价率,比中芯、华虹都深,有点小套利空间。 但话说回来,晶合集成在晶圆代工里排不上第一梯队,中芯国际、华虹半导体都在它前面,技术节点和产能规模有差距。所以折价深是有原因的,不是市场白送钱。 我的判断:折价率还行,有小套利空间,但不是那种\"闭眼梭哈\"的机会。 现金打打,小仓位参与,不用太激动。 如果你资金充裕,打一打没问题;如果资金紧张,跳过也不可惜。 AH折价率对比 评级:★★★☆ 三星半,现金打。 2、再说滨化股份。 滨化股份,搞化工的,烧碱、环氧丙烷这些。 A股那边最近出了点状况,连续两个跌停,股价直接砸下来。H股发行价相对A股折价率大概50%。 你可能会想,50%折价率也不低啊,为什么放弃? 主要原因是:化工股本身就不是港股打新的热门赛道,市场关注度低,暗盘很难有大的波动。 说白了,滨化股份这种票属于\"小涨小跌型\",涨也涨不了几个点,跌也跌不了多少,食之无味,弃之也不可惜。 性价比一般,我不想浪费时间。 评级:★★★ 三星,放弃申购。 3、最后说永康控股。 图片 永康控股,昨天文章","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229aa00ab1be5997fdaefcd8d13db443","width":"1080","height":"670"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582963075416440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579500037960744,"gmtCreate":1782509643013,"gmtModify":1782509716458,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579500037960744","repostId":"542275715788920","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":542275715788920,"gmtCreate":1773398460000,"gmtModify":1773415515863,"author":{"id":"3558920476397107","authorId":"3558920476397107","name":"锦缎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8eb9e41af832714b14f9e80dd7f2028","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558920476397107","idStr":"3558920476397107"},"themes":[],"title":"最新一篇博客背后,黄仁勋的深度思考","htmlText":"本文系基于公开资料撰写,仅作为信息交流之用,不构成任何投资建议3月10日,英伟达创始人黄仁勋罕见地发布了一篇博客,并提出了一个根本性的范式转换:AI不再是预先编写的软件,而是实时生成的智能。人工智能也并非单一的模型或应用程序,而是如同电力和互联网一样必不可少的基础设施。这一论断看似超前,但背后却有一套清晰的架构逻辑支撑:能源→芯片→基础设施→模型→应用自下而上递进,上层需求拉动下层投入,形成动态传导的技术栈。这并非简单的分层,而是物理约束逐级向上传导的链条。近几年来,智能已经从预存指令的检索发展到实时生成的推理,而整个计算范式也正在悄无声息地发生根本性重构。01 范式转换:从预制的软件到实时的智能氛围编程(Vibe Coding)概念兴起之前,在那些经历过传统计算时代的老一代程序员们眼中,软件必须依赖于人类预设的算法,数据必须经过结构化处理才能被检索。但短短几年,AI就轻松打破了这个流传了几十年的经典模式:计算机已经能够理解图像、文本、声音等非结构化信息,并根据上下文实时生成回应。在黄仁勋看来,AI的每次推理都是一次全新的创造实践,因此支撑智能生成的底层AI架构也必须重新设计。在他设想的五层架构中,能源被置于最底层,而且不存在“抽象层”。Transformer架构中,注意力机制下生成的每一个token,本质上都是电子流动、热量管理和能量转化为计算的结果。能源不仅是成本,还是物理层面上智能生产规模的上限。自此之上,芯片决定算力转化的效率,基础设施成为芯片集群的工厂,模型理解多领域的知识,而应用最后承载商业价值。在这个架构上运行的链条,任何一层存在瓶颈都会极大程度上制约智能生成的整体规模。对于英伟达和同在美国的Google、OpenAI等龙头企业来说,芯片、基础设施和模型三个层级基本已经打通,毫无疑问处于世界领先水平,但底层的能源仍是最大的限制。不惜成本建设数据中心以","listText":"本文系基于公开资料撰写,仅作为信息交流之用,不构成任何投资建议3月10日,英伟达创始人黄仁勋罕见地发布了一篇博客,并提出了一个根本性的范式转换:AI不再是预先编写的软件,而是实时生成的智能。人工智能也并非单一的模型或应用程序,而是如同电力和互联网一样必不可少的基础设施。这一论断看似超前,但背后却有一套清晰的架构逻辑支撑:能源→芯片→基础设施→模型→应用自下而上递进,上层需求拉动下层投入,形成动态传导的技术栈。这并非简单的分层,而是物理约束逐级向上传导的链条。近几年来,智能已经从预存指令的检索发展到实时生成的推理,而整个计算范式也正在悄无声息地发生根本性重构。01 范式转换:从预制的软件到实时的智能氛围编程(Vibe Coding)概念兴起之前,在那些经历过传统计算时代的老一代程序员们眼中,软件必须依赖于人类预设的算法,数据必须经过结构化处理才能被检索。但短短几年,AI就轻松打破了这个流传了几十年的经典模式:计算机已经能够理解图像、文本、声音等非结构化信息,并根据上下文实时生成回应。在黄仁勋看来,AI的每次推理都是一次全新的创造实践,因此支撑智能生成的底层AI架构也必须重新设计。在他设想的五层架构中,能源被置于最底层,而且不存在“抽象层”。Transformer架构中,注意力机制下生成的每一个token,本质上都是电子流动、热量管理和能量转化为计算的结果。能源不仅是成本,还是物理层面上智能生产规模的上限。自此之上,芯片决定算力转化的效率,基础设施成为芯片集群的工厂,模型理解多领域的知识,而应用最后承载商业价值。在这个架构上运行的链条,任何一层存在瓶颈都会极大程度上制约智能生成的整体规模。对于英伟达和同在美国的Google、OpenAI等龙头企业来说,芯片、基础设施和模型三个层级基本已经打通,毫无疑问处于世界领先水平,但底层的能源仍是最大的限制。不惜成本建设数据中心以","text":"本文系基于公开资料撰写,仅作为信息交流之用,不构成任何投资建议3月10日,英伟达创始人黄仁勋罕见地发布了一篇博客,并提出了一个根本性的范式转换:AI不再是预先编写的软件,而是实时生成的智能。人工智能也并非单一的模型或应用程序,而是如同电力和互联网一样必不可少的基础设施。这一论断看似超前,但背后却有一套清晰的架构逻辑支撑:能源→芯片→基础设施→模型→应用自下而上递进,上层需求拉动下层投入,形成动态传导的技术栈。这并非简单的分层,而是物理约束逐级向上传导的链条。近几年来,智能已经从预存指令的检索发展到实时生成的推理,而整个计算范式也正在悄无声息地发生根本性重构。01 范式转换:从预制的软件到实时的智能氛围编程(Vibe Coding)概念兴起之前,在那些经历过传统计算时代的老一代程序员们眼中,软件必须依赖于人类预设的算法,数据必须经过结构化处理才能被检索。但短短几年,AI就轻松打破了这个流传了几十年的经典模式:计算机已经能够理解图像、文本、声音等非结构化信息,并根据上下文实时生成回应。在黄仁勋看来,AI的每次推理都是一次全新的创造实践,因此支撑智能生成的底层AI架构也必须重新设计。在他设想的五层架构中,能源被置于最底层,而且不存在“抽象层”。Transformer架构中,注意力机制下生成的每一个token,本质上都是电子流动、热量管理和能量转化为计算的结果。能源不仅是成本,还是物理层面上智能生产规模的上限。自此之上,芯片决定算力转化的效率,基础设施成为芯片集群的工厂,模型理解多领域的知识,而应用最后承载商业价值。在这个架构上运行的链条,任何一层存在瓶颈都会极大程度上制约智能生成的整体规模。对于英伟达和同在美国的Google、OpenAI等龙头企业来说,芯片、基础设施和模型三个层级基本已经打通,毫无疑问处于世界领先水平,但底层的能源仍是最大的限制。不惜成本建设数据中心以","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3b82545b2a444cb898b2012a37496e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7103bc52cd48aab1586844c4faab0a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44139b8084ee4de18eebe6d3a27c2e13"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/542275715788920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579496742163072,"gmtCreate":1782508864995,"gmtModify":1782509682667,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"理性思考投资","listText":"理性思考投资","text":"理性思考投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579496742163072","repostId":"578003437969640","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":578003437969640,"gmtCreate":1782124620000,"gmtModify":1782139796336,"author":{"id":"10000000000010596","authorId":"10000000000010596","name":"王博雅投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c8f327f585dfee4f62719cf1294042a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010596","idStr":"10000000000010596"},"themes":[],"title":"停在哪:余额宝→债基→红利→标普→纳指→纳科→七巨头→英伟达→······","htmlText":"1 引言 在投资时,我经常遇到这类问题: 买了余额宝,他说为什么不买收益更高的债券基金; 买了债券基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的红利基金; 买了红利基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的标普500; 买了标普500,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指100; 买了纳指100,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指科技; 买了纳指科技,他说为什么不买收益更高的七巨头ETF; 买了七巨头ETF,他说为什么不买收益更高的英伟达; 买了英伟达,他说为什么不买收益更高的2倍做多英伟达; ...... 这个问题其实可以无限追问下去。 只要你愿意承担更高风险,总能找到过去收益更高、弹性更大、看起来更刺激的资产。 那么,投资时到底应该停在哪里呢? 2 分析与讨论 2.1 收益分析 毫无疑问,从最近这些年的表现来看,这个序列: 余额宝 → 债券基金 → 红利基金 → 标普500 → 纳指100 → 纳指科技 → 七巨头ETF → 英伟达 → 2倍做多英伟达 → …… 收益率是依次变好的。 如果从近十年的角度来看,它们的实际或回测年化收益率大约是: 余额宝:2% 债基:4% 红利基金:8% 标普500:15% 纳指100:22% 纳指科技:27% 七巨头ETF:36% 英伟达:68% 2倍做多英伟达:120%+ ... 只看这个表,结论似乎非常简单: 收益越高越好,那就应该一路往后买。 既然英伟达过去十年年化收益远高于标普500,那为什么还要买标普500? 既然2倍做多英伟达的收益更夸张,那为什么不直接买2倍做多英伟达? 这也是很多人在牛市里最容易产生的幻觉: 以为投资只是一个不断寻找更高收益率资产的过程。 但问题是,投资并不是只看收益率。 2.2 投资并非只看收益 投资更关键的问题是: 为了追求更高收益,你到底牺牲了什么? 牺牲的是稳定性,牺牲的是确定性,牺牲的是持有体验,牺牲的是你在极端行情里还能不能坚持下去。","listText":"1 引言 在投资时,我经常遇到这类问题: 买了余额宝,他说为什么不买收益更高的债券基金; 买了债券基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的红利基金; 买了红利基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的标普500; 买了标普500,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指100; 买了纳指100,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指科技; 买了纳指科技,他说为什么不买收益更高的七巨头ETF; 买了七巨头ETF,他说为什么不买收益更高的英伟达; 买了英伟达,他说为什么不买收益更高的2倍做多英伟达; ...... 这个问题其实可以无限追问下去。 只要你愿意承担更高风险,总能找到过去收益更高、弹性更大、看起来更刺激的资产。 那么,投资时到底应该停在哪里呢? 2 分析与讨论 2.1 收益分析 毫无疑问,从最近这些年的表现来看,这个序列: 余额宝 → 债券基金 → 红利基金 → 标普500 → 纳指100 → 纳指科技 → 七巨头ETF → 英伟达 → 2倍做多英伟达 → …… 收益率是依次变好的。 如果从近十年的角度来看,它们的实际或回测年化收益率大约是: 余额宝:2% 债基:4% 红利基金:8% 标普500:15% 纳指100:22% 纳指科技:27% 七巨头ETF:36% 英伟达:68% 2倍做多英伟达:120%+ ... 只看这个表,结论似乎非常简单: 收益越高越好,那就应该一路往后买。 既然英伟达过去十年年化收益远高于标普500,那为什么还要买标普500? 既然2倍做多英伟达的收益更夸张,那为什么不直接买2倍做多英伟达? 这也是很多人在牛市里最容易产生的幻觉: 以为投资只是一个不断寻找更高收益率资产的过程。 但问题是,投资并不是只看收益率。 2.2 投资并非只看收益 投资更关键的问题是: 为了追求更高收益,你到底牺牲了什么? 牺牲的是稳定性,牺牲的是确定性,牺牲的是持有体验,牺牲的是你在极端行情里还能不能坚持下去。","text":"1 引言 在投资时,我经常遇到这类问题: 买了余额宝,他说为什么不买收益更高的债券基金; 买了债券基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的红利基金; 买了红利基金,他说为什么不买收益更高的标普500; 买了标普500,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指100; 买了纳指100,他说为什么不买收益更高的纳指科技; 买了纳指科技,他说为什么不买收益更高的七巨头ETF; 买了七巨头ETF,他说为什么不买收益更高的英伟达; 买了英伟达,他说为什么不买收益更高的2倍做多英伟达; ...... 这个问题其实可以无限追问下去。 只要你愿意承担更高风险,总能找到过去收益更高、弹性更大、看起来更刺激的资产。 那么,投资时到底应该停在哪里呢? 2 分析与讨论 2.1 收益分析 毫无疑问,从最近这些年的表现来看,这个序列: 余额宝 → 债券基金 → 红利基金 → 标普500 → 纳指100 → 纳指科技 → 七巨头ETF → 英伟达 → 2倍做多英伟达 → …… 收益率是依次变好的。 如果从近十年的角度来看,它们的实际或回测年化收益率大约是: 余额宝:2% 债基:4% 红利基金:8% 标普500:15% 纳指100:22% 纳指科技:27% 七巨头ETF:36% 英伟达:68% 2倍做多英伟达:120%+ ... 只看这个表,结论似乎非常简单: 收益越高越好,那就应该一路往后买。 既然英伟达过去十年年化收益远高于标普500,那为什么还要买标普500? 既然2倍做多英伟达的收益更夸张,那为什么不直接买2倍做多英伟达? 这也是很多人在牛市里最容易产生的幻觉: 以为投资只是一个不断寻找更高收益率资产的过程。 但问题是,投资并不是只看收益率。 2.2 投资并非只看收益 投资更关键的问题是: 为了追求更高收益,你到底牺牲了什么? 牺牲的是稳定性,牺牲的是确定性,牺牲的是持有体验,牺牲的是你在极端行情里还能不能坚持下去。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a66bfb711f4614a990158d9488bee3"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef2d57538eff48bab561a5a505522b65"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5f69a403e24a9baeaf73cda16de991"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578003437969640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579494790198520,"gmtCreate":1782508382906,"gmtModify":1782509674656,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"投资英伟达。","listText":"投资英伟达。","text":"投资英伟达。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579494790198520","repostId":"579339773841424","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":579339773841424,"gmtCreate":1782457200000,"gmtModify":1782473555500,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105276229621","idStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"黄仁勋最新发声,AI的投资回报之争已经结束","htmlText":"在英伟达最新股东会上,黄仁勋把AI讲成一门已经开始产生收入的工业生意。 他的核心观点很直接,“有用的AI已经到来!关于AI投资回报的问题,答案已经出现。现在,每个行业都在竞相采用智能体AI。” 过去两年,市场先是被ChatGPT的生成能力震撼,随后又开始讨论推理模型和智能体。但在黄仁勋看来,真正关键的变化不是AI“会说话”了,而是AI开始“会工作”了。 一旦AI能完成工作,token就不再只是模型输出的技术单位,而会变成可以被定价、被交付、被货币化的利润单位。 也因此,数据中心不再只是存储和分发文件的基础设施,而会变成持续制造数字智能的AI工厂。 这正是英伟达想要讲给股东听的故事:客户购买的不是一批更贵的芯片,而是一座座能够产生收入的AI工厂。 黄仁勋信心满满地说,面向智能体的CPU产品——Vera将成为英伟达历史上最重要的发布之一,订单已开始。 过去几个月,英伟达在资本回报上也给出了非常明确的信号。 5月业绩发布时,公司宣布把季度现金股息从每股0.01美元提高到0.25美元,并额外增加800亿美元股票回购授权;而在这次股东会上,黄仁勋又进一步强调,英伟达计划在今年、明年以及未来,向股东返还50%或以上的自由现金流。 一家仍在高速增长,大规模投入研发、投资生态系统的公司,同时开始大幅提高分红、扩大回购,并承诺返还一半以上自由现金流。 这确实也在呼应黄仁勋的判断。 值得一提的是,在对话环节问到中国市场时,黄仁勋坦承,“虽然美国政府已经批准H200向中国客户发货的许可,但我们还没有产生任何相关收入。” 以下是黄仁勋在股东会上的主讲内容,聪明投资者(ID: Capital-nature)mark下来也分享之。 过去这一年,对英伟达来说,对整个计算行业来说,都是非同寻常的一年。 计算机行业大概每隔十到十五年,就会经历一次大的重置:从大型机到个人电脑,从个人电脑到互联网,从互联网到云","listText":"在英伟达最新股东会上,黄仁勋把AI讲成一门已经开始产生收入的工业生意。 他的核心观点很直接,“有用的AI已经到来!关于AI投资回报的问题,答案已经出现。现在,每个行业都在竞相采用智能体AI。” 过去两年,市场先是被ChatGPT的生成能力震撼,随后又开始讨论推理模型和智能体。但在黄仁勋看来,真正关键的变化不是AI“会说话”了,而是AI开始“会工作”了。 一旦AI能完成工作,token就不再只是模型输出的技术单位,而会变成可以被定价、被交付、被货币化的利润单位。 也因此,数据中心不再只是存储和分发文件的基础设施,而会变成持续制造数字智能的AI工厂。 这正是英伟达想要讲给股东听的故事:客户购买的不是一批更贵的芯片,而是一座座能够产生收入的AI工厂。 黄仁勋信心满满地说,面向智能体的CPU产品——Vera将成为英伟达历史上最重要的发布之一,订单已开始。 过去几个月,英伟达在资本回报上也给出了非常明确的信号。 5月业绩发布时,公司宣布把季度现金股息从每股0.01美元提高到0.25美元,并额外增加800亿美元股票回购授权;而在这次股东会上,黄仁勋又进一步强调,英伟达计划在今年、明年以及未来,向股东返还50%或以上的自由现金流。 一家仍在高速增长,大规模投入研发、投资生态系统的公司,同时开始大幅提高分红、扩大回购,并承诺返还一半以上自由现金流。 这确实也在呼应黄仁勋的判断。 值得一提的是,在对话环节问到中国市场时,黄仁勋坦承,“虽然美国政府已经批准H200向中国客户发货的许可,但我们还没有产生任何相关收入。” 以下是黄仁勋在股东会上的主讲内容,聪明投资者(ID: Capital-nature)mark下来也分享之。 过去这一年,对英伟达来说,对整个计算行业来说,都是非同寻常的一年。 计算机行业大概每隔十到十五年,就会经历一次大的重置:从大型机到个人电脑,从个人电脑到互联网,从互联网到云","text":"在英伟达最新股东会上,黄仁勋把AI讲成一门已经开始产生收入的工业生意。 他的核心观点很直接,“有用的AI已经到来!关于AI投资回报的问题,答案已经出现。现在,每个行业都在竞相采用智能体AI。” 过去两年,市场先是被ChatGPT的生成能力震撼,随后又开始讨论推理模型和智能体。但在黄仁勋看来,真正关键的变化不是AI“会说话”了,而是AI开始“会工作”了。 一旦AI能完成工作,token就不再只是模型输出的技术单位,而会变成可以被定价、被交付、被货币化的利润单位。 也因此,数据中心不再只是存储和分发文件的基础设施,而会变成持续制造数字智能的AI工厂。 这正是英伟达想要讲给股东听的故事:客户购买的不是一批更贵的芯片,而是一座座能够产生收入的AI工厂。 黄仁勋信心满满地说,面向智能体的CPU产品——Vera将成为英伟达历史上最重要的发布之一,订单已开始。 过去几个月,英伟达在资本回报上也给出了非常明确的信号。 5月业绩发布时,公司宣布把季度现金股息从每股0.01美元提高到0.25美元,并额外增加800亿美元股票回购授权;而在这次股东会上,黄仁勋又进一步强调,英伟达计划在今年、明年以及未来,向股东返还50%或以上的自由现金流。 一家仍在高速增长,大规模投入研发、投资生态系统的公司,同时开始大幅提高分红、扩大回购,并承诺返还一半以上自由现金流。 这确实也在呼应黄仁勋的判断。 值得一提的是,在对话环节问到中国市场时,黄仁勋坦承,“虽然美国政府已经批准H200向中国客户发货的许可,但我们还没有产生任何相关收入。” 以下是黄仁勋在股东会上的主讲内容,聪明投资者(ID: Capital-nature)mark下来也分享之。 过去这一年,对英伟达来说,对整个计算行业来说,都是非同寻常的一年。 计算机行业大概每隔十到十五年,就会经历一次大的重置:从大型机到个人电脑,从个人电脑到互联网,从互联网到云","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d60a9f3d658440988c6d035fbfedb27"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579339773841424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576638647899128,"gmtCreate":1781804401439,"gmtModify":1781820125776,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576638647899128","repostId":"575797405573536","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":575797405573536,"gmtCreate":1781580600000,"gmtModify":1781605413690,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105276229621","idStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"44年只有5年亏过!“安全边际之父”卡拉曼罕见对话,谈及错失Palantir百亿机会、如何参与AI以及当下投资的三个原则","htmlText":"“我们的价值投资方法,是不断问自己:我们究竟能确定的是什么?” 在价值投资的世界里,塞斯·卡拉曼(Seth Klarman)是一个很标杆的存在。 他写过一本《安全边际》,1991年出版后再未重印,长期绝版,二手市场一度被炒到上千美元一本;他执掌的Baupost成立于1982年,将近44年里只有5个年份亏损,最差的一年也不过下跌约10%。 但他向来低调。最近纽约全球另类投资大会现场接受CNBC访谈,难得有半小时时间,把最近的投资和对市场的看法,做了详细的分享。 全场看下来,最深的感受是四个字:人间清醒。 而这份清醒的源头,正是开头那句话——在一个动辄给出 40 倍、甚至近乎无限估值的市场里,他反复追问的,不是“它能涨多少”而是“我们究竟能确定的是什么”。这个问题,几乎贯穿了他的投资原则,以及44年超有耐心的多元资产投资历程。 它先指向企业本身的价值。 卡拉曼说,真正的价值投资不是机械地买便宜货,而是回到一家企业到底值多少钱。 谈到对AI的态度。他不否认这可能是一项改变规则的技术,但认为AI 制造了巨大的不确定性,市场却在用更高的倍数,去为一个越来越看不清的未来定价。 他把公司分成三类——AI 赢家、AI 输家、AI 无关,避开万亿估值的大模型公司,转而去研究那些被冷落、正在慢慢变便宜的第三类,以及可能被错杀的输家。 卡拉曼是典型价值投资者没错,只是他获取回报的方式不局限于股票。 Baupost的40位投资专家分布在公开股票、信用、私募和房地产四个领域,资本自下而上地流向机会最多的地方。比如当下会更关注困境债务,商业地产里的辅助生活设施,以及为数据中心储备的土地。 不用杠杆,愿意持有现金,把下行看得和上行一样重。那条44年、只亏过5年的曲线,正是这种克制与灵活叠加出来的结果。 话说,塞斯·卡拉曼辣评美国政策部分也很有意","listText":"“我们的价值投资方法,是不断问自己:我们究竟能确定的是什么?” 在价值投资的世界里,塞斯·卡拉曼(Seth Klarman)是一个很标杆的存在。 他写过一本《安全边际》,1991年出版后再未重印,长期绝版,二手市场一度被炒到上千美元一本;他执掌的Baupost成立于1982年,将近44年里只有5个年份亏损,最差的一年也不过下跌约10%。 但他向来低调。最近纽约全球另类投资大会现场接受CNBC访谈,难得有半小时时间,把最近的投资和对市场的看法,做了详细的分享。 全场看下来,最深的感受是四个字:人间清醒。 而这份清醒的源头,正是开头那句话——在一个动辄给出 40 倍、甚至近乎无限估值的市场里,他反复追问的,不是“它能涨多少”而是“我们究竟能确定的是什么”。这个问题,几乎贯穿了他的投资原则,以及44年超有耐心的多元资产投资历程。 它先指向企业本身的价值。 卡拉曼说,真正的价值投资不是机械地买便宜货,而是回到一家企业到底值多少钱。 谈到对AI的态度。他不否认这可能是一项改变规则的技术,但认为AI 制造了巨大的不确定性,市场却在用更高的倍数,去为一个越来越看不清的未来定价。 他把公司分成三类——AI 赢家、AI 输家、AI 无关,避开万亿估值的大模型公司,转而去研究那些被冷落、正在慢慢变便宜的第三类,以及可能被错杀的输家。 卡拉曼是典型价值投资者没错,只是他获取回报的方式不局限于股票。 Baupost的40位投资专家分布在公开股票、信用、私募和房地产四个领域,资本自下而上地流向机会最多的地方。比如当下会更关注困境债务,商业地产里的辅助生活设施,以及为数据中心储备的土地。 不用杠杆,愿意持有现金,把下行看得和上行一样重。那条44年、只亏过5年的曲线,正是这种克制与灵活叠加出来的结果。 话说,塞斯·卡拉曼辣评美国政策部分也很有意","text":"“我们的价值投资方法,是不断问自己:我们究竟能确定的是什么?” 在价值投资的世界里,塞斯·卡拉曼(Seth Klarman)是一个很标杆的存在。 他写过一本《安全边际》,1991年出版后再未重印,长期绝版,二手市场一度被炒到上千美元一本;他执掌的Baupost成立于1982年,将近44年里只有5个年份亏损,最差的一年也不过下跌约10%。 但他向来低调。最近纽约全球另类投资大会现场接受CNBC访谈,难得有半小时时间,把最近的投资和对市场的看法,做了详细的分享。 全场看下来,最深的感受是四个字:人间清醒。 而这份清醒的源头,正是开头那句话——在一个动辄给出 40 倍、甚至近乎无限估值的市场里,他反复追问的,不是“它能涨多少”而是“我们究竟能确定的是什么”。这个问题,几乎贯穿了他的投资原则,以及44年超有耐心的多元资产投资历程。 它先指向企业本身的价值。 卡拉曼说,真正的价值投资不是机械地买便宜货,而是回到一家企业到底值多少钱。 谈到对AI的态度。他不否认这可能是一项改变规则的技术,但认为AI 制造了巨大的不确定性,市场却在用更高的倍数,去为一个越来越看不清的未来定价。 他把公司分成三类——AI 赢家、AI 输家、AI 无关,避开万亿估值的大模型公司,转而去研究那些被冷落、正在慢慢变便宜的第三类,以及可能被错杀的输家。 卡拉曼是典型价值投资者没错,只是他获取回报的方式不局限于股票。 Baupost的40位投资专家分布在公开股票、信用、私募和房地产四个领域,资本自下而上地流向机会最多的地方。比如当下会更关注困境债务,商业地产里的辅助生活设施,以及为数据中心储备的土地。 不用杠杆,愿意持有现金,把下行看得和上行一样重。那条44年、只亏过5年的曲线,正是这种克制与灵活叠加出来的结果。 话说,塞斯·卡拉曼辣评美国政策部分也很有意","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49aace15efeb481ab6dda5088ff66a56"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2f43195f464409970ba66ed2dc97df"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3250851a2ac34de8879fd3e407a4a1e6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575797405573536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":576637928121832,"gmtCreate":1781804233103,"gmtModify":1781820125866,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/576637928121832","repostId":"574347018512640","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":574347018512640,"gmtCreate":1781235392554,"gmtModify":1781239052392,"author":{"id":"4229239679235552","authorId":"4229239679235552","name":"Fiona第一线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f07d6be885f71d6e56492ede4bea98","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4229239679235552","idStr":"4229239679235552"},"themes":[],"title":"SpaceX 今晚挂牌:95 倍 PS、年亏 49 亿、散户接走 30%——我一股不碰,但盯收盘","htmlText":"别抢 SPCX 首日——这单的发行结构,就是设计来让你当对手盘的。 数字摆这:发行价 $135、估值 1.77 万亿、2025 年营收 187 亿、亏损 49 亿——95 倍市销率,PE 算不出来,分子是负的。Mag7 被骂泡沫时才 28 倍 PE。 Morningstar 说合理价不到发行价一半。机构敢把话说这么死的,不多。 发牌方式更说明问题:散户配售 30%(约 225 亿美元),三倍于惯例;马斯克留 82% 投票权。机构抢破头的货凭什么分你三成?想明白这个问题,你就不会去排队。 今晚的意义不是交易,是测温:SPCX 首日收盘,是这轮 AI 行情的体温计。 高开站稳——情绪还有燃料,但 750 亿募资从 Mag7 和芯片口袋里抽,涨也是抽血。破发——昨晚纳指 +2.54%、VIX 19.4 的狂欢夜都接不住,顶部就有了参照物。 两种结果,对追高的人都不是好消息。 放个预判:SPCX 一个月内见不到 $170,破发概率大于站稳。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"别抢 SPCX 首日——这单的发行结构,就是设计来让你当对手盘的。 数字摆这:发行价 $135、估值 1.77 万亿、2025 年营收 187 亿、亏损 49 亿——95 倍市销率,PE 算不出来,分子是负的。Mag7 被骂泡沫时才 28 倍 PE。 Morningstar 说合理价不到发行价一半。机构敢把话说这么死的,不多。 发牌方式更说明问题:散户配售 30%(约 225 亿美元),三倍于惯例;马斯克留 82% 投票权。机构抢破头的货凭什么分你三成?想明白这个问题,你就不会去排队。 今晚的意义不是交易,是测温:SPCX 首日收盘,是这轮 AI 行情的体温计。 高开站稳——情绪还有燃料,但 750 亿募资从 Mag7 和芯片口袋里抽,涨也是抽血。破发——昨晚纳指 +2.54%、VIX 19.4 的狂欢夜都接不住,顶部就有了参照物。 两种结果,对追高的人都不是好消息。 放个预判:SPCX 一个月内见不到 $170,破发概率大于站稳。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"别抢 SPCX 首日——这单的发行结构,就是设计来让你当对手盘的。 数字摆这:发行价 $135、估值 1.77 万亿、2025 年营收 187 亿、亏损 49 亿——95 倍市销率,PE 算不出来,分子是负的。Mag7 被骂泡沫时才 28 倍 PE。 Morningstar 说合理价不到发行价一半。机构敢把话说这么死的,不多。 发牌方式更说明问题:散户配售 30%(约 225 亿美元),三倍于惯例;马斯克留 82% 投票权。机构抢破头的货凭什么分你三成?想明白这个问题,你就不会去排队。 今晚的意义不是交易,是测温:SPCX 首日收盘,是这轮 AI 行情的体温计。 高开站稳——情绪还有燃料,但 750 亿募资从 Mag7 和芯片口袋里抽,涨也是抽血。破发——昨晚纳指 +2.54%、VIX 19.4 的狂欢夜都接不住,顶部就有了参照物。 两种结果,对追高的人都不是好消息。 放个预判:SPCX 一个月内见不到 $170,破发概率大于站稳。 $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574347018512640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571692554209352,"gmtCreate":1780597566655,"gmtModify":1780608940104,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571692554209352","repostId":"566550824939800","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":566550824939800,"gmtCreate":1779329443844,"gmtModify":1779329471555,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36989258284800","idStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀 SpaceX IPO 终极解码:$SPCX 6月12日登陆纳斯达克,2万亿估值是太空淘金还是马斯克溢价?","htmlText":"🔥 30秒看懂 6月12日纳斯达克上市,代码 $SPCX,募资最高 750亿美元(史上最大 IPO) 估值 1.75–2万亿美元,但 2025年营收仅 186.7亿美元,市销率超 100倍 Starlink 是唯一盈利引擎(114亿营收 / 44.2亿运营利润),xAI 并表后整体净亏 49.4亿美元 马斯克掌握 85.1% 投票权,公众股东几乎无话语权,且预计不派息 参与方式:直接打新(难度大)、ETF 间接持仓、美股关联股( <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKLB\">$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$</a> / <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SATS\">$回声星通信(SATS)$</a> / <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTS\">$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$</a> )、A股供应链映射 一、IPO 速览:关键节点与基础信息 关键节点 日期 / 内容 备注 公开招股书(S-1) 2026年5月20日 首次披露合并后财务数据 路演(Roadshow) 6月4日启动 面向机构投资者 定价日 6月11日 最终发行价确定 上市交易 6月12日 纳斯达克,代码 $SPCX 估值目标 1.75–2.0 万亿美元 12个月内估值翻 5 倍 募资规模 最高 750亿美元 超越沙特阿美 290亿纪录(2019) 主承销商 高盛、摩根士丹利、美银、花旗、摩根大通 21家银行参与,代号\"Project Apex\" 股票分割 5:1 拆股 降低单股价格,提升零售投资者参与度 个人投资者视角:这不是普通的 IPO。750亿美元募资规模意味着机构将吃掉大部分份额,但 SpaceX CFO 已表态零售投资者分配比例可能高达 30%(通常为 10%),这可能","listText":"🔥 30秒看懂 6月12日纳斯达克上市,代码 $SPCX,募资最高 750亿美元(史上最大 IPO) 估值 1.75–2万亿美元,但 2025年营收仅 186.7亿美元,市销率超 100倍 Starlink 是唯一盈利引擎(114亿营收 / 44.2亿运营利润),xAI 并表后整体净亏 49.4亿美元 马斯克掌握 85.1% 投票权,公众股东几乎无话语权,且预计不派息 参与方式:直接打新(难度大)、ETF 间接持仓、美股关联股( <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKLB\">$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$</a> / <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SATS\">$回声星通信(SATS)$</a> / <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTS\">$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$</a> )、A股供应链映射 一、IPO 速览:关键节点与基础信息 关键节点 日期 / 内容 备注 公开招股书(S-1) 2026年5月20日 首次披露合并后财务数据 路演(Roadshow) 6月4日启动 面向机构投资者 定价日 6月11日 最终发行价确定 上市交易 6月12日 纳斯达克,代码 $SPCX 估值目标 1.75–2.0 万亿美元 12个月内估值翻 5 倍 募资规模 最高 750亿美元 超越沙特阿美 290亿纪录(2019) 主承销商 高盛、摩根士丹利、美银、花旗、摩根大通 21家银行参与,代号\"Project Apex\" 股票分割 5:1 拆股 降低单股价格,提升零售投资者参与度 个人投资者视角:这不是普通的 IPO。750亿美元募资规模意味着机构将吃掉大部分份额,但 SpaceX CFO 已表态零售投资者分配比例可能高达 30%(通常为 10%),这可能","text":"🔥 30秒看懂 6月12日纳斯达克上市,代码 $SPCX,募资最高 750亿美元(史上最大 IPO) 估值 1.75–2万亿美元,但 2025年营收仅 186.7亿美元,市销率超 100倍 Starlink 是唯一盈利引擎(114亿营收 / 44.2亿运营利润),xAI 并表后整体净亏 49.4亿美元 马斯克掌握 85.1% 投票权,公众股东几乎无话语权,且预计不派息 参与方式:直接打新(难度大)、ETF 间接持仓、美股关联股( $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ / $回声星通信(SATS)$ / $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ )、A股供应链映射 一、IPO 速览:关键节点与基础信息 关键节点 日期 / 内容 备注 公开招股书(S-1) 2026年5月20日 首次披露合并后财务数据 路演(Roadshow) 6月4日启动 面向机构投资者 定价日 6月11日 最终发行价确定 上市交易 6月12日 纳斯达克,代码 $SPCX 估值目标 1.75–2.0 万亿美元 12个月内估值翻 5 倍 募资规模 最高 750亿美元 超越沙特阿美 290亿纪录(2019) 主承销商 高盛、摩根士丹利、美银、花旗、摩根大通 21家银行参与,代号\"Project Apex\" 股票分割 5:1 拆股 降低单股价格,提升零售投资者参与度 个人投资者视角:这不是普通的 IPO。750亿美元募资规模意味着机构将吃掉大部分份额,但 SpaceX CFO 已表态零售投资者分配比例可能高达 30%(通常为 10%),这可能","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bec68001a607bbee4a8cd8255331e04"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566550824939800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571375356098152,"gmtCreate":1780520201323,"gmtModify":1780522485882,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571375356098152","repostId":"569085688246440","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":569085688246440,"gmtCreate":1779939223962,"gmtModify":1779941895432,"author":{"id":"3527667577115702","authorId":"3527667577115702","name":"小米死多头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36273dc153f2f9e76fe9da987b5084","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667577115702","idStr":"3527667577115702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"来看看老巫婆最新持仓,跑赢标普20%,不过还是不如我们大川子 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a>","listText":"来看看老巫婆最新持仓,跑赢标普20%,不过还是不如我们大川子 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a>","text":"来看看老巫婆最新持仓,跑赢标普20%,不过还是不如我们大川子 $英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $博通(AVGO)$ $礼来(LLY)$ 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越来越多,值得拥有!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087ec0e4641e164259e5590aa67122ab","width":"1044","height":"1683"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518988891496880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470716334662032,"gmtCreate":1755951825326,"gmtModify":1755951837411,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"是啥?","listText":"是啥?","text":"是啥?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b99230bda901bcd3ea9c01f1249cb7d","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470716334662032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439726306784032,"gmtCreate":1748383249832,"gmtModify":1748383251720,"author":{"id":"3434867142275235","authorId":"3434867142275235","name":"百事可乐wh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1c1849d88cebccaf76fac550f65c3dc","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3434867142275235","idStr":"3434867142275235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439726306784032","repostId":"427704952295432","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":427704952295432,"gmtCreate":1745391600000,"gmtModify":1746816505645,"author":{"id":"3524105276229621","authorId":"3524105276229621","name":"聪明投资人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a73a0ae6395ff58b664544b077c69a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105276229621","idStr":"3524105276229621"},"themes":[],"title":"特朗普马斯克“背后的男人”彼得·蒂尔最新发声,深谈失灵的系统以及如何务实的投资","htmlText":"1、适度的乐观才是对的。而在这个前提下,你必须学会选择自己的战场。2、从投资回报的角度看,我在过去二十年中作为Founders Fund创始合伙人尝试过的各类投资里,表现最差的两个领域,就是教育软件和医疗信息化。3、当所有人都认同这是一件“显而易见的大事”时,如果你不能拿出一种完全不同的视角,你就几乎没戏。反倒是那些不那么热门、但你有独特认知差的地方,更容易挖出真正的机会。4、你不能什么都干。你不能像一个冲浪者,在一个没有浪的平静日子里拼命划水。你要等到有浪来的时候,在恰当的位置发力,才会有效果。彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)在中国最广为人知的身份,可能是《从0到1》的作者,是支持特朗普的硅谷少数派,是与马斯克曾在PayPal一起打天下的早期合伙人。他是Facebook的第一个外部投资人,创办过Palantir、Founders Fund,投过SpaceX、Stripe、Airbnb……在过去 25 年中深刻塑造了美国的科技世界。在最近马斯克效率部门受挫、特朗普关税乱拳的背景下,彼得·蒂尔罕见出来参与了一档播客对话。近50分钟的交流,说得最多的却不是技术趋势,也不是大模型和AI,而是系统为什么失效,创业者/投资人还能做什么。主持人是他的老搭档乔·朗斯代尔——Palantir的联合创始人、奥斯汀大学(UATX)的发起人之一,也是在制度改革、科技赋能政府方面极为活跃的投资人。两人多年好友,对话没有太多寒暄,直接切入问题本身:“在一个越来越多系统坏掉的时代,聪明人该怎么选择战场?”他吐槽了很多美国政府系统失灵的、不可思议之处。比如地铁,美国修建1英里需要10亿美元,10倍于伦敦搭建的成本;政府预算明面上写着“援助非洲”,实际上却是给政党选举买单……而恰恰因为“腐败低效到令人发指”,这些领域也充满机会。“它会用成千上万页的监管文件把你拖死。但只要你能越过这些门槛,你几乎可以掌","listText":"1、适度的乐观才是对的。而在这个前提下,你必须学会选择自己的战场。2、从投资回报的角度看,我在过去二十年中作为Founders Fund创始合伙人尝试过的各类投资里,表现最差的两个领域,就是教育软件和医疗信息化。3、当所有人都认同这是一件“显而易见的大事”时,如果你不能拿出一种完全不同的视角,你就几乎没戏。反倒是那些不那么热门、但你有独特认知差的地方,更容易挖出真正的机会。4、你不能什么都干。你不能像一个冲浪者,在一个没有浪的平静日子里拼命划水。你要等到有浪来的时候,在恰当的位置发力,才会有效果。彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)在中国最广为人知的身份,可能是《从0到1》的作者,是支持特朗普的硅谷少数派,是与马斯克曾在PayPal一起打天下的早期合伙人。他是Facebook的第一个外部投资人,创办过Palantir、Founders Fund,投过SpaceX、Stripe、Airbnb……在过去 25 年中深刻塑造了美国的科技世界。在最近马斯克效率部门受挫、特朗普关税乱拳的背景下,彼得·蒂尔罕见出来参与了一档播客对话。近50分钟的交流,说得最多的却不是技术趋势,也不是大模型和AI,而是系统为什么失效,创业者/投资人还能做什么。主持人是他的老搭档乔·朗斯代尔——Palantir的联合创始人、奥斯汀大学(UATX)的发起人之一,也是在制度改革、科技赋能政府方面极为活跃的投资人。两人多年好友,对话没有太多寒暄,直接切入问题本身:“在一个越来越多系统坏掉的时代,聪明人该怎么选择战场?”他吐槽了很多美国政府系统失灵的、不可思议之处。比如地铁,美国修建1英里需要10亿美元,10倍于伦敦搭建的成本;政府预算明面上写着“援助非洲”,实际上却是给政党选举买单……而恰恰因为“腐败低效到令人发指”,这些领域也充满机会。“它会用成千上万页的监管文件把你拖死。但只要你能越过这些门槛,你几乎可以掌","text":"1、适度的乐观才是对的。而在这个前提下,你必须学会选择自己的战场。2、从投资回报的角度看,我在过去二十年中作为Founders Fund创始合伙人尝试过的各类投资里,表现最差的两个领域,就是教育软件和医疗信息化。3、当所有人都认同这是一件“显而易见的大事”时,如果你不能拿出一种完全不同的视角,你就几乎没戏。反倒是那些不那么热门、但你有独特认知差的地方,更容易挖出真正的机会。4、你不能什么都干。你不能像一个冲浪者,在一个没有浪的平静日子里拼命划水。你要等到有浪来的时候,在恰当的位置发力,才会有效果。彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)在中国最广为人知的身份,可能是《从0到1》的作者,是支持特朗普的硅谷少数派,是与马斯克曾在PayPal一起打天下的早期合伙人。他是Facebook的第一个外部投资人,创办过Palantir、Founders Fund,投过SpaceX、Stripe、Airbnb……在过去 25 年中深刻塑造了美国的科技世界。在最近马斯克效率部门受挫、特朗普关税乱拳的背景下,彼得·蒂尔罕见出来参与了一档播客对话。近50分钟的交流,说得最多的却不是技术趋势,也不是大模型和AI,而是系统为什么失效,创业者/投资人还能做什么。主持人是他的老搭档乔·朗斯代尔——Palantir的联合创始人、奥斯汀大学(UATX)的发起人之一,也是在制度改革、科技赋能政府方面极为活跃的投资人。两人多年好友,对话没有太多寒暄,直接切入问题本身:“在一个越来越多系统坏掉的时代,聪明人该怎么选择战场?”他吐槽了很多美国政府系统失灵的、不可思议之处。比如地铁,美国修建1英里需要10亿美元,10倍于伦敦搭建的成本;政府预算明面上写着“援助非洲”,实际上却是给政党选举买单……而恰恰因为“腐败低效到令人发指”,这些领域也充满机会。“它会用成千上万页的监管文件把你拖死。但只要你能越过这些门槛,你几乎可以掌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70556d7de40144708090d3d378a43521"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11cf8bb6cfdf4ac6934847efb83b6efb"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2f43195f464409970ba66ed2dc97df"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427704952295432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":32,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}