一瓢慢饮的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一瓢慢饮

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2024-12-31

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 这些傻叉大股东，套个现也不会套，谁在底部套现的呀，垃圾

2025-12-30

$百度(BIDU)$ 这是忽悠了多少国际资本，外国人还是不懂百度的尿性

2025-02-21

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 这还能继续上啊？买进的你们都不懂技术的吗！[喷血]

2024-11-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 借地问一下，你们用汇丰卡的话，你们怎么转账回内地？汇丰能直接转吗？

2025-02-18

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 我错了我错了[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] 我错了还不行吗[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

02-19

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 各方不停在看好，高管又不停在减持，太多的信息不对称，都不知道这公司究竟在做了些啥，感觉买它就是在盲目赌博

2025-02-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这些风险都还好，暗s风险才是个雷

特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机

01-23

$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！

2024-11-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克和川普目前的保镖团队靠谱吗

02-23

$智谱(02513)$ 不能这样啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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这样涨应该严查！犯规啊！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534745521370688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534659781658072,"gmtCreate":1771553069257,"gmtModify":1771553071538,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$ </a> 闻到了大a要开盘的味道","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$ </a> 闻到了大a要开盘的味道","text":"$兆易创新(03986)$ 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[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/404853411553616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198978185958942","authorId":"4198978185958942","name":"Bikyhai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4198978185958942","idStr":"4198978185958942"},"content":"我35就卖了[笑哭]","text":"我35就卖了[笑哭]","html":"我35就卖了[笑哭]"},{"author":{"id":"3488664072136456","authorId":"3488664072136456","name":"咬咬领先","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69aa0a897d4984f7cc34d204d83f444e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3488664072136456","idStr":"3488664072136456"},"content":"不会做空了吧","text":"不会做空了吧","html":"不会做空了吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534294334801336,"gmtCreate":1771463845262,"gmtModify":1771463847716,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 各方不停在看好，高管又不停在减持，太多的信息不对称，都不知道这公司究竟在做了些啥，感觉买它就是在盲目赌博","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">$Tempus AI(TEM)$&nbsp;</a> 各方不停在看好，高管又不停在减持，太多的信息不对称，都不知道这公司究竟在做了些啥，感觉买它就是在盲目赌博","text":"$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 各方不停在看好，高管又不停在减持，太多的信息不对称，都不知道这公司究竟在做了些啥，感觉买它就是在盲目赌博","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534294334801336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571926598065209","authorId":"3571926598065209","name":"SherriSherri","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfcfde58c27cf3d11e8a867f46c622a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3571926598065209","idStr":"3571926598065209"},"content":"是你自己不去研究人家在什么 人家在做什么。人家去年一整年就清清楚楚交代过了 什么思路真的是","text":"是你自己不去研究人家在什么 人家在做什么。人家去年一整年就清清楚楚交代过了 什么思路真的是","html":"是你自己不去研究人家在什么 人家在做什么。人家去年一整年就清清楚楚交代过了 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这些风险都还好，暗s风险才是个雷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406868412080680","repostId":"1103660322","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103660322","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1740374420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103660322?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 13:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103660322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-24 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74682068d49f2901bc7ff0be69cf3e49","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660322","content_text":"他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。2月24日，特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：1． FSD“行不通”格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”2． 马斯克分心了从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”3． 电动汽车销售放缓虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。4． 特斯拉估值较高相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的英伟达（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474273072027739","authorId":"3474273072027739","name":"卡尔洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5bb61521c38f41b9c93c2497a4237ef","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3474273072027739","idStr":"3474273072027739"},"content":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好","text":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好","html":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524754291417696,"gmtCreate":1769140438097,"gmtModify":1769140440296,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$&nbsp;</a> 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$&nbsp;</a> 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","text":"$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524754291417696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3432626344975122","authorId":"3432626344975122","name":"好时机不常来见好就收","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b496bcfe57857cc67e95de17e52680","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3432626344975122","idStr":"3432626344975122"},"content":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了","text":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了","html":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373040884392360,"gmtCreate":1732120011932,"gmtModify":1732120013603,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 马斯克和川普目前的保镖团队靠谱吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 马斯克和川普目前的保镖团队靠谱吗","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克和川普目前的保镖团队靠谱吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373040884392360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4121219774760940","authorId":"4121219774760940","name":"别让我ccc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9af1a7e6d3e7027d5446763f1d1c0e3c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4121219774760940","idStr":"4121219774760940"},"content":"大家把公屏打在保护上[微笑]","text":"大家把公屏打在保护上[微笑]","html":"大家把公屏打在保护上[微笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535713313011360,"gmtCreate":1771808475582,"gmtModify":1771808477624,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">$智谱(02513)$ </a> 不能这样啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">$智谱(02513)$ </a> 不能这样啊","text":"$智谱(02513)$ 不能这样啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535713313011360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}