一瓢慢饮的个人主页 - 老虎社区

一瓢慢饮

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IP属地：广东

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0勋章

04-16

$华虹半导体(01347)$ 在这躲行情

04-08

$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ 弱鸡

04-08

停火就好好停，别搞

消息称停火期间伊朗和阿曼将对通过霍尔木兹海峡船只收费

04-07

以后就自认老二吧！！！

美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限

03-25

$兆易创新(03986)$ 长鑫什么时候ipo？没消息了？

03-19

扩大支出是在扩大规模呀，担忧个得，不扩大支出光靠涨价能赚几个钱

AI带动存储景气爆发！美光上季营收增近两倍，本季指引大超预期，财年支出料猛增

03-18

$智谱(02513)$ 我错了😭900亿时看不起你，下来让我上车吧！[流泪]

03-18

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 企鹅帝国的黄昏

03-05

$Figma(FIG)$ 下一个十倍股必然是它

03-04

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 稳扎稳打，这下江山都没了

03-03

$台积电(TSM)$ 算了，不看了，一直拿着好了，美股毕竟不是大a，有业绩支撑20几倍，市盈率能跌哪去

02-24

$智谱(02513)$ 严查啊严查啊！

02-23

$智谱(02513)$ 不能这样啊

02-20

$智谱(02513)$ 这样涨应该严查！犯规啊！！！

02-20

$兆易创新(03986)$ 闻到了大a要开盘的味道

02-20

$智谱(02513)$ 错了，我错了，回来吧，我还没上车呀[流泪]

02-19

$西部数据(WDC)$ 这是闻到了大a要开盘的味道吗？

02-19

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 各方不停在看好，高管又不停在减持，太多的信息不对称，都不知道这公司究竟在做了些啥，感觉买它就是在盲目赌博

02-13

$美光科技(MU)$ 一反常态，过年不涨

02-11

$美光科技(MU)$ 咋啦？不敢下来了？我还等着加仓呢

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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弱鸡","text":"$MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ 弱鸡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551400558684168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551276235800936,"gmtCreate":1775610741505,"gmtModify":1775610743790,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"停火就好好停，别搞","listText":"停火就好好停，别搞","text":"停火就好好停，别搞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551276235800936","repostId":"1185032662","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185032662","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775610389,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185032662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-08 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href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=18103987461622579524&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=876C77BA-3BDA-4047-B097-512843957B8F_797303153392&share_to=copy_url\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf7c774e5d1ba1d8d5b994406c34c75","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=18103987461622579524&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=876C77BA-3BDA-4047-B097-512843957B8F_797303153392&share_to=copy_url","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185032662","content_text":"总台记者当地时间4月7日获悉，一名匿名的地区官员透露称，为期两周的停火计划包括允许伊朗和阿曼对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费。他表示，伊朗将把筹集到的资金用于重建。目前尚不清楚阿曼将如何使用其筹集到的资金。该官员未透露自己的国籍信息。（总台记者 张颖哲）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QMmain":2,"YMmain":2,"NQmain":2,"MESmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4131409357956500","authorId":"4131409357956500","name":"ruan_7128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad7f9c1716c3dead55c9cc240346dcb","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4131409357956500","idStr":"4131409357956500"},"content":"伊朗也穷，收点过路费可以理解 [开心]","text":"伊朗也穷，收点过路费可以理解 [开心]","html":"伊朗也穷，收点过路费可以理解 [开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551127213843144,"gmtCreate":1775574374087,"gmtModify":1775576043744,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"以后就自认老二吧！！！","listText":"以后就自认老二吧！！！","text":"以后就自认老二吧！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551127213843144","repostId":"1107683205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107683205","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775574102,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107683205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107683205","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。</p><p>另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美媒：特朗普表示可能调整对伊朗的最后期限\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-07 23:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。</p><p>另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/00ab710b18d6c3a0335cf6fa35509b7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107683205","content_text":"美国总统特朗普表示，如果谈判取得进展，周二晚上8点的最后期限可能会有所调整，但目前仍会坚持原定的截止时间。另据报道，伊朗已终止与美国之间的直接外交联系。中东官员表示，尽管如此，伊朗与停火调解方的谈判仍在继续。此外，三名伊朗高级官员表示，伊朗方面已通知巴基斯坦，不会再参加旨在停火的会谈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546446907270264,"gmtCreate":1774419254537,"gmtModify":1774419256350,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$ </a> 长鑫什么时候ipo？没消息了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$ </a> 长鑫什么时候ipo？没消息了？","text":"$兆易创新(03986)$ 长鑫什么时候ipo？没消息了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546446907270264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544146512376872,"gmtCreate":1773873768740,"gmtModify":1773873771429,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437803347689838","idStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"扩大支出是在扩大规模呀，担忧个得，不扩大支出光靠涨价能赚几个钱","listText":"扩大支出是在扩大规模呀，担忧个得，不扩大支出光靠涨价能赚几个钱","text":"扩大支出是在扩大规模呀，担忧个得，不扩大支出光靠涨价能赚几个钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544146512376872","repostId":"1155937341","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155937341","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1773872079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155937341?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-19 06:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI带动存储景气爆发！美光上季营收增近两倍，本季指引大超预期，财年支出料猛增","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155937341","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美光公布，第二财季毛利率逼近75%，和营收、EPS盈利均创单季新高；季度股息提高30%。上季营收环比跳升、毛利率逼近75%，利润端全面刷新纪录第二财季，美光实现营收238.6亿美元，较上一财季的136.4亿美元大增约75%，较上财年同期的80.5亿美元同比增长约196%。美光管理层在新闻稿中明确表示，预计2026财年第三财季将再次出现“显著纪录”。虽然美光的财报业绩与指引大超预期，但股价盘后未能保住涨势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美光公布，第二财季毛利率逼近75%，和营收、EPS盈利均创单季新高；季度股息提高30%。第三财季营收指引中值较分析师预期高逾50%，EPS指引较预期高近70%，毛利率料81%；本财年资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，料下财年支出“显著”增长。股价盘后先曾涨超2%，后跌超4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI需求持续推高存储价格的背景下，美光科技交出了一份远超预期的财报，并给出极为强劲的未来指引，凸显AI驱动下行业景气仍在加速上行，但本财年和下一财年资本支出料将猛增，令投资者对美光的盈利前景持谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间18日周三，美光公布，截至2月26日的公司2026财年第二财季，营收同比增长将近两倍至约239亿美元，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）12.20美元，均明显高于市场预期。美光称，本季在营收、毛利率、EPS与自由现金流等多项指标上均创单季最高纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光的盈利能力抬升更为显著。第二财季非GAAP口径下毛利率升至74.9%，较第一财季的56.8%继续跃升，远高于上财年同期的37.9%；非GAAP营业利润率进一步升至69.0%。在“强劲需求+行业供给偏紧”的环境下，价格与产品组合的顺风叠加经营杠杆释放，带动利润端爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe313f5d8e6de8082187af6d387e3f39\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"677\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业务结构上，面向AI算力与数据中心的增长引擎更清晰。第二财季云存储（Cloud Memory）营收77.5亿美元、核心数据中心（Core Data Center）营收56.9亿美元；同时，移动与客户端、汽车与嵌入式也同步走强，四大业务线毛利率均处在高位区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更令市场意外的是美光的指引强劲。美光预计，第三财季营收中值335亿美元，较分析师预期均值约237亿美元高41%以上；预计第三财季非GAAP口径EPS中值为19.15美元，较分析师预期的11.29美元高将近70%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在股东回报方面，美光维持稳定分红政策，在业绩爆发与现金流改善的背景下强化投资者回报，公司董事会批准将季度股息提高30%至每股0.15美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受强劲业绩与指引提振，财报发布后，周三几乎收平的美光股价盘后先快速拉升，一度涨超2%，但此后转跌，目前盘后跌超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d6e00b370103e3cec4b4ad8e3b7812\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"726\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，美光股价年内涨幅已大，部分利好提前兑现，市场对AI存储景气已有较高预期，都在打压股价，而且美光将本财年、即2026财年的资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，并预计下财年支出将“显著”增长，这会引起一些盈利方面的担忧。市场更关注的是公司在下一代HBM产品中的实际订单落地情况，而不仅是短期财务表现。</p><h2 id=\"75\">上季营收环比跳升、毛利率逼近75%，利润端全面刷新纪录</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二财季，美光实现营收238.6亿美元，较上一财季的136.4亿美元大增约75%，较上财年同期的80.5亿美元同比增长约196%。在收入高增的同时，成本端并未同步扩张：本季GAAP口径下销售成本61.1亿美元，推动毛利额达到177.6亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润表端的变化更具“周期上行”特征：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP口径下净利润137.9亿美元，对应摊薄EPS 12.07美元；非GAAP口径净利润140.2亿美元，对应调整后EPS 12.20美元；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP毛利率74.9%，较上一财季56.8%显著抬升；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP营业利润164.6亿美元，营业利润率69.0%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">费用控制带来明显经营杠杆。第二财季GAAP口径下营业费用16.2亿美元，非GAAP口径为14.2亿美元，在营收大幅放量下，费用率进一步被摊薄，为利润率抬升提供助力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103a4dba1cf6d2cc5fa6f46caeff321e\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1020533198\">数据中心与云仍是“主引擎” AI需求引爆存储价格 业绩“量价齐升”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从业务构成看，美光本季增长并非单点突破，而是全线走强：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>云存储（Cloud Memory）：营收77.49亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率66%。</p></li><li><p>核心数据中心（Core Data Center）：营收56.87亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率67%。</p></li><li><p>移动与客户端（Mobile and Client）：营收77.11亿美元，毛利率79%，营业利润率76%。</p></li><li><p>汽车与嵌入式（Automotive and Embedded）：营收27.08亿美元，毛利率68%，营业利润率62%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，云存储与核心数据中心合计营收约134.4亿美元，占总营收超过一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在管理层“AI时代内存成为客户战略资产”的表述下，市场更倾向将本轮景气解读为：AI相关算力投资带来的结构性需求，叠加行业供给纪律共同作用，推升价格、稼动率与产品组合。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光本轮业绩爆发的核心驱动力来自AI。随着数据中心建设进入高峰期，对高性能存储尤其是高带宽存储（HBM）的需求急剧攀升，直接推高存储芯片价格。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73fa51dc6afcd99563948e2f35ff8736\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"674\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体数据显示，当前内存价格出现明显上涨，部分产品甚至出现阶段性短缺。美光在这一轮周期中受益明显：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据中心需求激增</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HBM等高端产品占比提升</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">供给向高利润产品倾斜</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“结构性供给收缩+AI需求爆发”的组合，使得公司实现了收入和利润的同步跃升。</p><h2 id=\"f46a32ac\">现金流与资产负债表：强劲造血叠加扩产投入，净现金实力仍充足</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二财季经营活动现金流达119.0亿美元，高于上一财季的84.1亿美元与去年同期的39.4亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光披露，第二财季资本开支净投入约50.0亿美元，对应调整后自由现金流（Adjusted FCF）69.0亿美元，同样明显抬升（上一财季39.1亿美元、去年同期8.6亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产负债表方面，美光期末现金及等价物139.1亿美元，并持有一定规模的短期与长期可交易投资；同时继续压降杠杆，期末长期债务由上一财季的111.9亿美元降至95.6亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，营收快速放量带动应收款上升，期末应收款173.1亿美元，较上一财季的101.8亿美元明显增加，对经营现金流形成一定营运资本波动，但在利润与现金流“高底盘”背景下可控。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于美光公布季度股息大幅上调，分析认为，结合近两个季度盈利与现金流释放，这一动作不仅是回报股东，也强化了公司对需求环境与盈利韧性的判断：在继续进行制造版图投资、维持高资本开支强度的同时，仍有能力提高现金分红并推进债务偿还与回购安排。</p><h2 id=\"id_2376366217\">指引远超预期 行业景气仍在上行周期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比已经亮眼的当季业绩，更令市场震撼的是美光给出的下一季度指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光给出的第三财季展望堪称本次财报的最大看点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>营收：335亿美元，上下浮动7.5亿美元；</p></li><li><p>毛利率：约81%；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP口径营业费用：约14亿美元；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP EPS：19.15美元，上下浮动0.40美元。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与市场预期相比，收入与利润指引均出现显著上修空间，且毛利率目标进一步上探至80%上方，意味着公司判断“价格/产品组合+供需偏紧+规模效应”仍将延续至少一个季度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7180bb7642bc672e34cb83ee2baf0fe\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光管理层在新闻稿中明确表示，预计2026财年第三财季将再次出现“显著纪录”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三财季的收入指引不仅远高于分析师一致预期，也意味着公司收入将继续加速增长。这表明：AI服务器需求仍在快速扩张；存储供需紧张局面短期难以缓解；行业价格上行趋势仍在持续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内普遍认为，这一轮存储周期的持续时间可能远超以往，甚至可能延续数年。部分行业人士预计，供应紧张可能持续4-5年。</p><h2 id=\"id_2755979624\">股价为何先涨后跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然美光的财报业绩与指引大超预期，但股价盘后未能保住涨势。分析认为，股价转跌说明市场开始消化更“贵”的那一面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，美光股价今年以来已累涨超60%，财报前预期本来就很高，任何不够“更炸裂”的细节都容易触发获利了结。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，美光将2026财年的资本支出预期从200亿美元上调至250亿美元，而且还提示2027财年的资本支出会“显著”上升，这会让部分投资者担心，AI需求虽然强，但短期自由现金流和利润率未必会像收入一样同步爆发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个外部因素是，财报发布当天，本周三的大盘环境并不友好。美联储会后宣布维持利率不变，预计今年只降息一次；与此同时，美国PPI数据高于预期，推高了收益率和风险资产压力。在这种宏观背景下，半导体股即便财报不错，也更容易出现“先涨后吐”的盘后走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场博弈角度看，先涨后跌的走势其实很典型：第一阶段交易的是“业绩和指引大超预期”；第二阶段交易的是“高预期、高涨幅、加大资本开支、宏观风险偏弱”。因此，股价表现说明，美光的财报足够强，强到足以让市场先兴奋、再谨慎。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI带动存储景气爆发！美光上季营收增近两倍，本季指引大超预期，财年支出料猛增</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI带动存储景气爆发！美光上季营收增近两倍，本季指引大超预期，财年支出料猛增\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-19 06:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美光公布，第二财季毛利率逼近75%，和营收、EPS盈利均创单季新高；季度股息提高30%。第三财季营收指引中值较分析师预期高逾50%，EPS指引较预期高近70%，毛利率料81%；本财年资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，料下财年支出“显著”增长。股价盘后先曾涨超2%，后跌超4%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI需求持续推高存储价格的背景下，美光科技交出了一份远超预期的财报，并给出极为强劲的未来指引，凸显AI驱动下行业景气仍在加速上行，但本财年和下一财年资本支出料将猛增，令投资者对美光的盈利前景持谨慎态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间18日周三，美光公布，截至2月26日的公司2026财年第二财季，营收同比增长将近两倍至约239亿美元，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）12.20美元，均明显高于市场预期。美光称，本季在营收、毛利率、EPS与自由现金流等多项指标上均创单季最高纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光的盈利能力抬升更为显著。第二财季非GAAP口径下毛利率升至74.9%，较第一财季的56.8%继续跃升，远高于上财年同期的37.9%；非GAAP营业利润率进一步升至69.0%。在“强劲需求+行业供给偏紧”的环境下，价格与产品组合的顺风叠加经营杠杆释放，带动利润端爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe313f5d8e6de8082187af6d387e3f39\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"677\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业务结构上，面向AI算力与数据中心的增长引擎更清晰。第二财季云存储（Cloud Memory）营收77.5亿美元、核心数据中心（Core Data Center）营收56.9亿美元；同时，移动与客户端、汽车与嵌入式也同步走强，四大业务线毛利率均处在高位区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更令市场意外的是美光的指引强劲。美光预计，第三财季营收中值335亿美元，较分析师预期均值约237亿美元高41%以上；预计第三财季非GAAP口径EPS中值为19.15美元，较分析师预期的11.29美元高将近70%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在股东回报方面，美光维持稳定分红政策，在业绩爆发与现金流改善的背景下强化投资者回报，公司董事会批准将季度股息提高30%至每股0.15美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受强劲业绩与指引提振，财报发布后，周三几乎收平的美光股价盘后先快速拉升，一度涨超2%，但此后转跌，目前盘后跌超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d6e00b370103e3cec4b4ad8e3b7812\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"726\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，美光股价年内涨幅已大，部分利好提前兑现，市场对AI存储景气已有较高预期，都在打压股价，而且美光将本财年、即2026财年的资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，并预计下财年支出将“显著”增长，这会引起一些盈利方面的担忧。市场更关注的是公司在下一代HBM产品中的实际订单落地情况，而不仅是短期财务表现。</p><h2 id=\"75\">上季营收环比跳升、毛利率逼近75%，利润端全面刷新纪录</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二财季，美光实现营收238.6亿美元，较上一财季的136.4亿美元大增约75%，较上财年同期的80.5亿美元同比增长约196%。在收入高增的同时，成本端并未同步扩张：本季GAAP口径下销售成本61.1亿美元，推动毛利额达到177.6亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利润表端的变化更具“周期上行”特征：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP口径下净利润137.9亿美元，对应摊薄EPS 12.07美元；非GAAP口径净利润140.2亿美元，对应调整后EPS 12.20美元；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP毛利率74.9%，较上一财季56.8%显著抬升；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP营业利润164.6亿美元，营业利润率69.0%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">费用控制带来明显经营杠杆。第二财季GAAP口径下营业费用16.2亿美元，非GAAP口径为14.2亿美元，在营收大幅放量下，费用率进一步被摊薄，为利润率抬升提供助力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103a4dba1cf6d2cc5fa6f46caeff321e\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1020533198\">数据中心与云仍是“主引擎” AI需求引爆存储价格 业绩“量价齐升”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从业务构成看，美光本季增长并非单点突破，而是全线走强：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>云存储（Cloud Memory）：营收77.49亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率66%。</p></li><li><p>核心数据中心（Core Data Center）：营收56.87亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率67%。</p></li><li><p>移动与客户端（Mobile and Client）：营收77.11亿美元，毛利率79%，营业利润率76%。</p></li><li><p>汽车与嵌入式（Automotive and Embedded）：营收27.08亿美元，毛利率68%，营业利润率62%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，云存储与核心数据中心合计营收约134.4亿美元，占总营收超过一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在管理层“AI时代内存成为客户战略资产”的表述下，市场更倾向将本轮景气解读为：AI相关算力投资带来的结构性需求，叠加行业供给纪律共同作用，推升价格、稼动率与产品组合。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光本轮业绩爆发的核心驱动力来自AI。随着数据中心建设进入高峰期，对高性能存储尤其是高带宽存储（HBM）的需求急剧攀升，直接推高存储芯片价格。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73fa51dc6afcd99563948e2f35ff8736\" tg-width=\"1291\" tg-height=\"674\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体数据显示，当前内存价格出现明显上涨，部分产品甚至出现阶段性短缺。美光在这一轮周期中受益明显：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据中心需求激增</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HBM等高端产品占比提升</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">供给向高利润产品倾斜</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“结构性供给收缩+AI需求爆发”的组合，使得公司实现了收入和利润的同步跃升。</p><h2 id=\"f46a32ac\">现金流与资产负债表：强劲造血叠加扩产投入，净现金实力仍充足</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二财季经营活动现金流达119.0亿美元，高于上一财季的84.1亿美元与去年同期的39.4亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光披露，第二财季资本开支净投入约50.0亿美元，对应调整后自由现金流（Adjusted FCF）69.0亿美元，同样明显抬升（上一财季39.1亿美元、去年同期8.6亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产负债表方面，美光期末现金及等价物139.1亿美元，并持有一定规模的短期与长期可交易投资；同时继续压降杠杆，期末长期债务由上一财季的111.9亿美元降至95.6亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，营收快速放量带动应收款上升，期末应收款173.1亿美元，较上一财季的101.8亿美元明显增加，对经营现金流形成一定营运资本波动，但在利润与现金流“高底盘”背景下可控。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于美光公布季度股息大幅上调，分析认为，结合近两个季度盈利与现金流释放，这一动作不仅是回报股东，也强化了公司对需求环境与盈利韧性的判断：在继续进行制造版图投资、维持高资本开支强度的同时，仍有能力提高现金分红并推进债务偿还与回购安排。</p><h2 id=\"id_2376366217\">指引远超预期 行业景气仍在上行周期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比已经亮眼的当季业绩，更令市场震撼的是美光给出的下一季度指引。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光给出的第三财季展望堪称本次财报的最大看点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>营收：335亿美元，上下浮动7.5亿美元；</p></li><li><p>毛利率：约81%；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP口径营业费用：约14亿美元；</p></li><li><p>非GAAP EPS：19.15美元，上下浮动0.40美元。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与市场预期相比，收入与利润指引均出现显著上修空间，且毛利率目标进一步上探至80%上方，意味着公司判断“价格/产品组合+供需偏紧+规模效应”仍将延续至少一个季度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7180bb7642bc672e34cb83ee2baf0fe\" tg-width=\"1322\" tg-height=\"666\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美光管理层在新闻稿中明确表示，预计2026财年第三财季将再次出现“显著纪录”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三财季的收入指引不仅远高于分析师一致预期，也意味着公司收入将继续加速增长。这表明：AI服务器需求仍在快速扩张；存储供需紧张局面短期难以缓解；行业价格上行趋势仍在持续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内普遍认为，这一轮存储周期的持续时间可能远超以往，甚至可能延续数年。部分行业人士预计，供应紧张可能持续4-5年。</p><h2 id=\"id_2755979624\">股价为何先涨后跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然美光的财报业绩与指引大超预期，但股价盘后未能保住涨势。分析认为，股价转跌说明市场开始消化更“贵”的那一面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，美光股价今年以来已累涨超60%，财报前预期本来就很高，任何不够“更炸裂”的细节都容易触发获利了结。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，美光将2026财年的资本支出预期从200亿美元上调至250亿美元，而且还提示2027财年的资本支出会“显著”上升，这会让部分投资者担心，AI需求虽然强，但短期自由现金流和利润率未必会像收入一样同步爆发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有一个外部因素是，财报发布当天，本周三的大盘环境并不友好。美联储会后宣布维持利率不变，预计今年只降息一次；与此同时，美国PPI数据高于预期，推高了收益率和风险资产压力。在这种宏观背景下，半导体股即便财报不错，也更容易出现“先涨后吐”的盘后走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从市场博弈角度看，先涨后跌的走势其实很典型：第一阶段交易的是“业绩和指引大超预期”；第二阶段交易的是“高预期、高涨幅、加大资本开支、宏观风险偏弱”。因此，股价表现说明，美光的财报足够强，强到足以让市场先兴奋、再谨慎。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155937341","content_text":"美光公布，第二财季毛利率逼近75%，和营收、EPS盈利均创单季新高；季度股息提高30%。第三财季营收指引中值较分析师预期高逾50%，EPS指引较预期高近70%，毛利率料81%；本财年资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，料下财年支出“显著”增长。股价盘后先曾涨超2%，后跌超4%。在AI需求持续推高存储价格的背景下，美光科技交出了一份远超预期的财报，并给出极为强劲的未来指引，凸显AI驱动下行业景气仍在加速上行，但本财年和下一财年资本支出料将猛增，令投资者对美光的盈利前景持谨慎态度。美东时间18日周三，美光公布，截至2月26日的公司2026财年第二财季，营收同比增长将近两倍至约239亿美元，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）12.20美元，均明显高于市场预期。美光称，本季在营收、毛利率、EPS与自由现金流等多项指标上均创单季最高纪录。美光的盈利能力抬升更为显著。第二财季非GAAP口径下毛利率升至74.9%，较第一财季的56.8%继续跃升，远高于上财年同期的37.9%；非GAAP营业利润率进一步升至69.0%。在“强劲需求+行业供给偏紧”的环境下，价格与产品组合的顺风叠加经营杠杆释放，带动利润端爆发。业务结构上，面向AI算力与数据中心的增长引擎更清晰。第二财季云存储（Cloud Memory）营收77.5亿美元、核心数据中心（Core Data Center）营收56.9亿美元；同时，移动与客户端、汽车与嵌入式也同步走强，四大业务线毛利率均处在高位区间。更令市场意外的是美光的指引强劲。美光预计，第三财季营收中值335亿美元，较分析师预期均值约237亿美元高41%以上；预计第三财季非GAAP口径EPS中值为19.15美元，较分析师预期的11.29美元高将近70%。在股东回报方面，美光维持稳定分红政策，在业绩爆发与现金流改善的背景下强化投资者回报，公司董事会批准将季度股息提高30%至每股0.15美元。受强劲业绩与指引提振，财报发布后，周三几乎收平的美光股价盘后先快速拉升，一度涨超2%，但此后转跌，目前盘后跌超4%。分析认为，美光股价年内涨幅已大，部分利好提前兑现，市场对AI存储景气已有较高预期，都在打压股价，而且美光将本财年、即2026财年的资本支出指引上调25%至250亿美元，并预计下财年支出将“显著”增长，这会引起一些盈利方面的担忧。市场更关注的是公司在下一代HBM产品中的实际订单落地情况，而不仅是短期财务表现。上季营收环比跳升、毛利率逼近75%，利润端全面刷新纪录第二财季，美光实现营收238.6亿美元，较上一财季的136.4亿美元大增约75%，较上财年同期的80.5亿美元同比增长约196%。在收入高增的同时，成本端并未同步扩张：本季GAAP口径下销售成本61.1亿美元，推动毛利额达到177.6亿美元。利润表端的变化更具“周期上行”特征：GAAP口径下净利润137.9亿美元，对应摊薄EPS 12.07美元；非GAAP口径净利润140.2亿美元，对应调整后EPS 12.20美元；非GAAP毛利率74.9%，较上一财季56.8%显著抬升；非GAAP营业利润164.6亿美元，营业利润率69.0%。费用控制带来明显经营杠杆。第二财季GAAP口径下营业费用16.2亿美元，非GAAP口径为14.2亿美元，在营收大幅放量下，费用率进一步被摊薄，为利润率抬升提供助力。数据中心与云仍是“主引擎” AI需求引爆存储价格 业绩“量价齐升”从业务构成看，美光本季增长并非单点突破，而是全线走强：云存储（Cloud Memory）：营收77.49亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率66%。核心数据中心（Core Data Center）：营收56.87亿美元，毛利率74%，营业利润率67%。移动与客户端（Mobile and Client）：营收77.11亿美元，毛利率79%，营业利润率76%。汽车与嵌入式（Automotive and Embedded）：营收27.08亿美元，毛利率68%，营业利润率62%。其中，云存储与核心数据中心合计营收约134.4亿美元，占总营收超过一半。在管理层“AI时代内存成为客户战略资产”的表述下，市场更倾向将本轮景气解读为：AI相关算力投资带来的结构性需求，叠加行业供给纪律共同作用，推升价格、稼动率与产品组合。美光本轮业绩爆发的核心驱动力来自AI。随着数据中心建设进入高峰期，对高性能存储尤其是高带宽存储（HBM）的需求急剧攀升，直接推高存储芯片价格。媒体数据显示，当前内存价格出现明显上涨，部分产品甚至出现阶段性短缺。美光在这一轮周期中受益明显：数据中心需求激增HBM等高端产品占比提升供给向高利润产品倾斜这种“结构性供给收缩+AI需求爆发”的组合，使得公司实现了收入和利润的同步跃升。现金流与资产负债表：强劲造血叠加扩产投入，净现金实力仍充足第二财季经营活动现金流达119.0亿美元，高于上一财季的84.1亿美元与去年同期的39.4亿美元。美光披露，第二财季资本开支净投入约50.0亿美元，对应调整后自由现金流（Adjusted FCF）69.0亿美元，同样明显抬升（上一财季39.1亿美元、去年同期8.6亿美元）。资产负债表方面，美光期末现金及等价物139.1亿美元，并持有一定规模的短期与长期可交易投资；同时继续压降杠杆，期末长期债务由上一财季的111.9亿美元降至95.6亿美元。值得注意的是，营收快速放量带动应收款上升，期末应收款173.1亿美元，较上一财季的101.8亿美元明显增加，对经营现金流形成一定营运资本波动，但在利润与现金流“高底盘”背景下可控。对于美光公布季度股息大幅上调，分析认为，结合近两个季度盈利与现金流释放，这一动作不仅是回报股东，也强化了公司对需求环境与盈利韧性的判断：在继续进行制造版图投资、维持高资本开支强度的同时，仍有能力提高现金分红并推进债务偿还与回购安排。指引远超预期 行业景气仍在上行周期相比已经亮眼的当季业绩，更令市场震撼的是美光给出的下一季度指引。美光给出的第三财季展望堪称本次财报的最大看点：营收：335亿美元，上下浮动7.5亿美元；毛利率：约81%；非GAAP口径营业费用：约14亿美元；非GAAP 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这些风险都还好，暗s风险才是个雷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406868412080680","repostId":"1103660322","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103660322","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1740374420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103660322?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-24 13:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103660322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉股价面临50%跌幅风险？马斯克曾经的忠实信徒详解四大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-02-24 13:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。</p></blockquote><p>2月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。</p><p>去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。</p><p>这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265b400e1d43f3603ff06b5dda26ea58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。</p><p>在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。</p><p>监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。</p><p><strong>以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：</strong></p><p><strong>1． FSD“行不通”</strong></p><p>格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。</p><p>“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。</p><p>“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。</p><p>他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”</p><p><strong>2． 马斯克分心了</strong></p><p>从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。</p><p>格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。</p><p>格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”</p><p>“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”</p><p><strong>3． 电动汽车销售放缓</strong></p><p>虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。</p><p>去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。</p><p>对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”</p><p>特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。</p><p>格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”</p><p>美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。</p><p>这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。</p><p>“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。</p><p><strong>4． 特斯拉估值较高</strong></p><p>相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。</p><p>YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。</p><p>“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”</p><p>华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。</p><p><em>本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk&#39;s biggest believer. Now he&#39;s doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74682068d49f2901bc7ff0be69cf3e49","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103660322","content_text":"他曾是埃隆-马斯克最忠实的信徒。现在，他加倍强调了特斯拉股票在2025年将遭受重创的原因。2月24日，特斯拉投资者、格伯川崎财富管理公司CEO罗斯·格伯最近再次对这只股票发表看空观点，认为四大因素可能导致特斯拉股票今年下跌至多50%。去年年中格伯透露，由于担心特斯拉汽车的受欢迎程度正在下降，他已出售了约6000万美元的特斯拉股票。然后，在特朗普赢得大选后，格伯在12月初表示，马斯克与总统的关系即使有任何积极因素，也不会对特斯拉产生多大影响。这些警告现在看来很有先见之明。在大选后最初的飙升之后，特斯拉的股价在2025年迄今下跌了16%，自格伯去年12月发表上述言论以来，特斯拉的股价下跌了约4%。格伯认为，在一系列熟悉的问题中，这一趋势仍在继续，包括估值过高、对该公司全自动驾驶（FSD）能力的担忧，以及马斯克不可预测的行为带来的连锁反应。在最新的一次采访中，格伯进一步阐述了他的悲观观点，概述了他认为特斯拉很容易受到高达50%的下跌影响的原因。监管文件显示，格伯在2024年将持有的特斯拉股份减少了31%，截至去年年底，他仍持有26.2万股特斯拉股票，价值1.06亿美元。以下是格伯预测特斯拉将面临艰难一年的四个原因：1． FSD“行不通”格伯认为，今年特斯拉的股票将遭遇灾难，因为马斯克6月份在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动驾驶出租车网络的目标过于雄心勃勃。“所有这些东西都将在今年实现，因为他把实现全自动驾驶的最后期限定为几个月后。这似乎不可能发生，”格伯说。“我们在机器人出租车和自动驾驶方面远远落后，这是毫无疑问的，”戈伯说，并补充说他认为Waymo的方法是“一个更安全的系统”。他说：“我现在认为，你需要激光雷达来拥有一个足够安全的全自动驾驶系统。他们（特斯拉）将会碰壁，除非他们改变硬件，否则他们无法变得更好。”2． 马斯克分心了从经营特斯拉、SpaceX和xAI等多家公司，到在X上发表大量文章，到在DOGE牵头提高政府效率，再到成为十几个孩子的父亲，可以肯定地说，马斯克一天中的时间可能不够用。格伯认为，这对特斯拉股东来说是个问题，尤其是考虑到马斯克最近几个月的唯一关注点似乎是人工智能。格伯表示：“他100%专注于人工智能，这对特斯拉的不利影响大于对xAI和其他所有业务的有利影响，因为他已经不在特斯拉工作了。”“如果他把所有的时间都投入到全自动驾驶上，我对特斯拉会更有信心。”3． 电动汽车销售放缓虽然投资者对特斯拉的炒作主要集中在其自动驾驶和机器人的雄心上，但销售汽车仍然是该公司的核心业务，而这一业务开始放缓。去年是特斯拉电动汽车销量首次出现年度下滑。在预测2025年增长20%-30%之后，该公司管理层在最新的财报电话会议上表示，预计今年将“恢复增长”。对于格伯来说，来自比亚迪日益激烈的竞争，对特斯拉在美国以外的电动汽车业务构成了真正的威胁。他说。“比亚迪是一家如此优秀的公司，新兴市场的每个人都在购买比亚迪。”特斯拉面临的另一个威胁是马斯克与美国总统特朗普的密切关系。格伯解释道：“这只会制造愤怒。我从未见过这种对特斯拉的愤怒，但这不是对特斯拉这个公司的愤怒，而是因为埃隆，这是人们发泄愤怒的唯一途径。”美国歌手谢丽尔·克劳（Sheryl Crow）上周在Instagram上发布了一段视频，向她的特斯拉挥手告别，她卖掉了特斯拉以示抗议。这一趋势可能会在美国以外的地区加速发展，据报道，特斯拉1月份在法国、德国和挪威的汽车销量分别下降了63%、60%和38%。“我们必须卖车，但人们已经不想要了，”格伯说。4． 特斯拉估值较高相对于其他汽车制造商和市值巨大的科技同行，特斯拉的估值一直较高，但如果特斯拉的汽车销售持续放缓，这种溢价可能会大幅降低。YCharts的数据显示，尽管特斯拉去年的利润仅为丰田的20%，但其市值高达1.1万亿美元，是丰田的近5倍。其预期市盈率为118倍，是“七巨头”股票中第二高的英伟达（Nvidia）的三倍多，也高于其84倍的5年平均水平。“对我来说，问题是，我以125倍的市盈率持有1亿美元的特斯拉股票，它甚至不接近’七巨头”中任何正常股票的市盈率，”格伯说，“因此，特斯拉的弱点是，如果今年情况不顺利，它可能会下跌50%。所以我们卖出特斯拉的股票。我们仍然有大量的股票，我们卖掉它们，因为我们认为它们被高估了。”华尔街的一些大公司可能会同意格伯的观点。摩根大通对特斯拉最新的盈利发布持悲观态度。尽管投资者最初热情高涨，但该行表示，特斯拉股票的目标价仍为135美元，这意味着特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌60%。本文编译自 BUSINESS INSIDER 《He was once Elon Musk's biggest believer. Now he's doubling down on why Tesla stock will feel serious pain in 2025.》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474273072027739","authorId":"3474273072027739","name":"卡尔洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5bb61521c38f41b9c93c2497a4237ef","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3474273072027739","authorIdStr":"3474273072027739"},"content":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好","text":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好","html":"瞎说，暗鲨才是最大的利好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524754291417696,"gmtCreate":1769140438097,"gmtModify":1769140440296,"author":{"id":"3437803347689838","authorId":"3437803347689838","name":"一瓢慢饮","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437803347689838","authorIdStr":"3437803347689838"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$&nbsp;</a> 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$&nbsp;</a> 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","text":"$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$ 23倍的市盈我说你们跑什么？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524754291417696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3432626344975122","authorId":"3432626344975122","name":"好时机不常来见好就收","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b496bcfe57857cc67e95de17e52680","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3432626344975122","authorIdStr":"3432626344975122"},"content":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了","text":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了","html":"中概随时都可以一个文件打下来，再也不碰了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}